宏观点评（2024 年 9 月 9 日） 1 结构分化加剧，需求仍待改善 ——中国物价数据点评（2024 年 8 月） 8 月 CPI 通胀 0.6%，高于前值（0.5%），稍低于市场预期（0.7%）；PPI 通 胀-1.8%，显著低于前值（-0.8%）与市场预期（-1.4%）。 8 月 CPI 通胀与 PPI 通胀分化加剧。CPI 通胀受到食品价格托举，PPI 通胀 受上中下游价格下滑拖累。前瞻地看，通胀持续回升的关键在于国内需求显 著改善，近期密集部署的政策是否有效还需进一步观察。 一、CPI 通胀：食品上涨，核心回落 8 月 CPI 通胀同比 0.6%，环比 0.4%。从结构看，食品价格普涨，服务价 格回落，核心商品价格依旧低迷。 食品通胀延续上升态势，猪肉、鲜菜、鲜果等多项价格上涨，牛肉、奶 类价格跌幅收窄。8 月食品价格环比、同比显著上升，环比增速较 7 月扩大 2.2pct 至 3.4%，同比增速扩大 2.8pct 至 2.8%，拉动 CPI 通胀 0.5pct。产能收 缩叠加二次育肥，猪肉价格环比上涨 7.3%，但受翘尾因素影响同比涨幅收窄 4.3pct 至 16.1%。受今年夏季极端天气频发影 ...

|研究院 纽约分行 行内偕作·宏观点评 2024 年 9 月 12 日 1 服务通胀，商品通缩 ——美国 CPI 通胀数据点评（2024 年 8 月） 8月美国通胀数据符合预期。CPI同比增速放缓至2.5%（市场预期2.5%）； 环比增速 0.2%（市场预期 0.2%）；核心 CPI 同比增速保持在 3.2%（市场预期 3.2%），环比增速 0.3%（市场预期 0.2%）。"服务通胀，商品通缩"格局仍在 延续，前者反映财政支撑下的美国国内韧性，后者则反映货币压制下的全球 失衡。本轮美联储降息周期或现"稳健开局"，年内降息幅度介于 50-75bp。 一、总览：服务通胀，商品通缩 美国大选年财政扩张继续支撑居民消费。财政对居民的转移支付增加， 抵消居民纳税支出回升，削弱储蓄动机，消费继续扩张。亚特兰大联储 GDPNOW 模型预测三季度美国居民消费增速高达 3.5%，其中服务消费增长 2.8%，商品消费增长 5.0%。 服务价格在消费韧性支撑下表现出通胀粘性，商品价格则在全球供需失 衡影响下表现为持续通缩，与国内消费脱钩，全球主要经济体商品价格均处 通缩状态。核心分项方面，8 月核心服务 CPI 同比增长 4.9% ...

1 资本市场点评（2024 年 9 月 13 日） 对金价再创新高的点评 ——黄金升至我们的目标区间下限 2550 美金 事件：伦敦金昨日盘中升破 2550 美金，再次刷新历史新高，也触达了我 们的目标区间下限 2550 美金（我们于今年 4 月提出，黄金价格将涨至 2550- 3000 美金区间）。 对此，我们点评如下： 一、黄金为何上涨？ 一方面，尽管央行购金逻辑在近期出现一定程度的弱化（中国央行已经 连续 4 个月停止购金，全球央行的二季度购金量环比下滑），但是美联储降息 周期即将开启，美债实际利率、美元均在偏低位运行，对黄金利多，也成为 了当下阶段影响黄金走势最为核心的因素。另一方面，俄乌冲突仍然有所反 复，在情绪上也对黄金构成了利好。 二、上海金表现为何相较伦敦金偏弱？ 尽管伦敦金已经突破历史新高，但是上海金近期涨势明显弱于伦敦金， 目前刚刚站上 580 元，且尚未突破前期高位。我们认为原因有两点：一是人 民币自 8 月初以来出现了一轮快速升值，吞噬了部分黄金的涨幅。二是金价 涨至高位后，购金盘热情可能出现了一定程度的降温，上海金相较国际金的 溢价消失，内外盘价差也基本上回归到了零值附近。 三、后市 ...

|研究院 纽约分行 行内偕作·宏观点评 2024 年 9 月 12 日 1 服务通胀，商品通缩 ——美国 CPI 通胀数据点评（2024 年 8 月） 8月美国通胀数据符合预期。CPI同比增速放缓至2.5%（市场预期2.5%）； 环比增速 0.2%（市场预期 0.2%）；核心 CPI 同比增速保持在 3.2%（市场预期 3.2%），环比增速 0.3%（市场预期 0.2%）。"服务通胀，商品通缩"格局仍在 延续，前者反映财政支撑下的美国国内韧性，后者则反映货币压制下的全球 失衡。本轮美联储降息周期或现"稳健开局"，年内降息幅度介于 50-75bp。 一、总览：服务通胀，商品通缩 美国大选年财政扩张继续支撑居民消费。财政对居民的转移支付增加， 抵消居民纳税支出回升，削弱储蓄动机，消费继续扩张。亚特兰大联储 GDPNOW 模型预测三季度美国居民消费增速高达 3.5%，其中服务消费增长 2.8%，商品消费增长 5.0%。 服务价格在消费韧性支撑下表现出通胀粘性，商品价格则在全球供需失 衡影响下表现为持续通缩，与国内消费脱钩，全球主要经济体商品价格均处 通缩状态。核心分项方面，8 月核心服务 CPI 同比增长 4.9% ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that the Federal Reserve is expected to initiate a rate cut in September, which is seen as a significant trading theme in the market [4][15][24] - The report highlights that the U.S. economy is showing signs of slowing down, with employment data triggering recession speculation, leading to increased rate cut expectations [4][15][24] - The report suggests that the domestic market may see a policy implementation window in September, which could boost market risk appetite [4][15][17] Group 2 - The report provides a market outlook for various asset classes, recommending high allocation to U.S. dollar bonds and gold, while suggesting a balanced approach for A-shares and other equities [4][19][24] - It emphasizes that the U.S. stock market is expected to maintain a volatile upward trend, but with limited upside potential due to high valuations [4][22][24] - The report notes that the domestic bond market is expected to experience fluctuations, with a recommendation to hold bonds and consider short-term debt and cash-like assets [4][19][24] Group 3 - The report discusses the potential impact of new demand-side policies in China, particularly in real estate, which could support market performance if implemented effectively [4][15][17] - It highlights that the performance of A-shares is under pressure from weak fundamentals, but policy support could lead to a rebound [4][19][24] - The report suggests a cautious approach to equity investments, focusing on dividend strategies and sectors with independent growth logic [4][19][24]

[Table_Yemei0] 宏观研究·月度报告 2024 年 8 月 29 日 | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------|-------| | | | | [Table_Title1] 海外政策行至拐点，中国政策有待加力 | | | | | | | | | —— 宏观经济月报（ 2024 年 8 月） | | [Table_summary1] ■ 海外政策行至拐点，美联储 9 月降息已成定局，美国降息周期开启。美 国方面，三季度经济温和降温，地产投资是边际拖累，居民消费则在财政扩 张支撑下延续韧性。考虑到美股震荡加剧，楼市亦显疲态，美联储应当开启 降息。由于财政扩张大概率持续至大选前，不宜高估美联储年内降息节奏， 预计年内降息幅度介于 50-75bp 之间。日本方面，通胀回暖驱动日本经济开 启一轮内生性修复，但美国衰退交易引发日元套息大规模逆转，日本股市及 汇市剧烈震荡，危及金融稳定，日央行仍将在通胀修复和金融稳定之间摇 摆。欧洲方面，巴黎奥运会短期提振难掩经济颓势，欧央行料将继续降息。 ■ 国内实体经济方面，7 月 ...

| --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------|-------| | | | | [Table_Title1] 传媒行业之电子游戏篇① —— | | | | | | 路在脚下：中国电子游戏行业的悄然崛起 | | [Table_Author1]雷霆 [Table_summary1] ■ 2024 年中国游戏产业再次迎来了一次标志性时刻。国产游戏《黑神话：悟空》 凭借其卓越的画质、深厚的文化内涵以及创新的玩法，迅速在全球市场上引发热 潮。仅在上市后的三天内，这款游戏的销量便突破了 1000 万份，成为 2024 年 最具影响力的游戏之一。根据相关机构预测，该游戏的最终销量或将达到 2000 万份，销售额或将突破 60 亿元人民币。《黑神话：悟空》的成功不仅展示了中国 游戏产业在全球市场中的崛起，也为行业的发展提供了新的方向与机遇。 ■ 截至 2023 年，全球电子游戏市场收入已达 1.18 万亿元人民币。电子游戏已经 成为当代社会的重要组成部分，不仅提供了丰富的娱乐体验，还通过全球文化传 播和电子竞技，深刻影响了现代文化的多样性。自 1958 年以 ...

1 宏观点评（2024 年 8 月 26 日） 美国降息周期开启 ——鲍威尔 2024 年杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会讲话点评 美东时间 8 月 23 日，美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会发 表讲话，明确"政策转向时机已经到来"，并对疫情以来的通胀起落和美联储 政策操作进行总结性回顾。 一、政策前瞻：9 月降息已成定局 鲍威尔首次释放明确降息信号，9 月降息已成定局。鲍威尔在讲话中表 示，通胀上行风险有所减弱，就业下行风险有所增加，政策调整的时机已经 到来。 美联储政策重心已由"抗通胀"转向"稳就业"。鲍威尔认为，劳动力 市场已经大幅降温，不太可能继续推升通胀。一是失业率逐步上行，7 月已 较低点上行约 1pct 至 4.3%。二是新增就业动能放缓，职位空缺比回归疫前 水平，雇佣率和离职率均已低于疫前水平。值得注意的是，8 月 21 日，美国 劳工部将截至 2024 年 3 月的 12 个月新增就业人数大幅下修 82 万，其间月 均新增就业人数已从 24 万降至 17 万，完全回归疫前水平。三是薪资增速有 所放缓，7 月薪资同比降至 3.7%，为 2021 年 5 月以来最低水平。鲍威尔特 别指出，当前美国 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a high investment outlook for offshore wind power in China, with expectations of maintaining high demand for new installations in 2024-2025, projected to reach an average of over 12GW annually [1][11]. Core Insights - China has become the world's largest offshore wind power market, with significant government planning and support driving the expansion of offshore wind installations [6][11]. - The investment cost for offshore wind power is expected to continue decreasing, with a potential for achieving grid parity in the near future [14][24]. - The easing of restrictive factors such as project approvals and military management is anticipated to boost project progress and installation demand [29]. Summary by Sections 1. Offshore Wind Power Demand - The long-term demand for offshore wind power in China is driven by government planning, while mid-term demand is influenced by economic viability and short-term demand is affected by project progress [11][24]. - The government has set a target of over 50GW of new offshore wind installations during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with expectations of annual new installations exceeding 12GW in the next two years [11][13]. 2. Development of Deep Offshore Wind Power - The report highlights that deep offshore wind projects will be the main growth driver during the 15th Five-Year Plan, with significant potential for resource development in deep offshore areas [1][6]. - There is a need for policy support to facilitate the development of deep offshore wind projects, drawing lessons from mature overseas markets [1][6]. 3. Changes in Industry Participants - New players from sectors such as oil and gas, shipping, and construction are expected to enter the offshore wind power market, altering the investment and supply chain landscape [2][6]. - The introduction of flexible DC transmission technology is anticipated to enhance the cost-effectiveness of power transmission in offshore wind projects [2][6]. 4. Economic Viability and Cost Trends - The investment cost for offshore wind power has decreased significantly, with a cumulative reduction of nearly 82.16% since 2011, and is projected to continue declining [14][18]. - The report estimates that by 2025, the cost of electricity generated from offshore wind power could drop below 0.3 yuan/KWh, achieving grid parity [14][24]. 5. Project Approval and Market Indicators - The report notes that the approval process for offshore wind projects has been complex, but recent trends indicate a speeding up of approvals and a positive outlook for project initiation and grid connection [29][31]. - The bidding data for offshore wind projects serves as a leading indicator for future installation capacity, with significant bidding activity observed in 2022-2023 [29][31].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the home appliance industry due to the implementation of national subsidy standards, which are expected to boost consumption and upgrade the recycling system [3][5]. Core Insights - The introduction of national subsidies is anticipated to accelerate the upgrade and replacement cycle of home appliances, with a significant theoretical waste volume of approximately 2.6 billion units in 2023, highlighting a substantial market opportunity [5][6]. - The central government's financial support of 150 billion yuan for six categories of consumer goods, including home appliances, will be distributed to local governments based on various economic factors, allowing for flexible allocation [4][5]. - The new recycling policies and the integration of internet platforms for waste collection are expected to enhance the efficiency and effectiveness of the recycling system, addressing current challenges in the industry [6][7]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Local Implementation of National Subsidies - Hubei province has become the first to implement national subsidy standards, offering a 15% subsidy for secondary energy efficiency products and 20% for primary energy efficiency products, with a maximum subsidy of 2,000 yuan per item [3][4]. - The subsidy program covers eight categories of products, including air conditioners, televisions, refrigerators, washing machines, and more, running from August 10 to December 31 [3][4]. Section 2: Central Subsidy Impact on Market Dynamics - The central subsidy is expected to significantly enhance the replacement demand for home appliances, with the current replacement cycle being longer than ideal, as only 90 million units were processed in 2023 compared to a theoretical waste volume of 1 billion units [5][6]. - The central subsidy is characterized by greater financial support, broader coverage, and improved efficiency in reaching end consumers compared to local subsidy models [5][6]. Section 3: Optimization of Recycling Systems - The current recycling system for waste home appliances is inefficient, with only 20% of waste being processed through formal channels [6][7]. - Recent policy changes, including the new Solid Waste Law and the cessation of the waste appliance processing fund, aim to improve the recycling framework, encouraging producers to establish or outsource recycling systems [7]. - The integration of internet platforms, such as the "Hubei Supply and Marketing Recycling" app, facilitates a more organized and traceable recycling process, ensuring that waste appliances are properly managed [7][8].