Overall Labor Market - The U.S. labor market is normalizing, with the job vacancy-to-unemployed ratio dropping to 1.1, down from a peak of 2.0 in March 2022, and below the pre-pandemic level of 1.2 in February 2020[3] - The unemployment rate in August decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2%, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 14.2 million, which is 5.3 thousand higher than the previous month[3] - The average hourly wage growth month-on-month rose to 0.4%, while year-on-year growth rebounded to 3.8%[2] Structural Imbalances - Despite overall equilibrium, structural imbalances persist in the U.S. job market, with employment cooling significantly while wage growth remains strong[4] - The average hourly wage growth in August was 0.4% month-on-month and 3.8% year-on-year, exceeding pre-pandemic levels despite weaker job additions[5] - Job vacancies in the service sector remain high, with 50% of service industries having vacancy rates above 5%, while construction vacancy rates are as low as 2.9%[5] Future Outlook - The risk of further cooling in the U.S. job market remains significant, with expectations of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates 2-3 times this year, totaling 50-75 basis points[6] - The marginal support for the U.S. economy is expected to shift from fiscal expansion to monetary easing as the labor market stabilizes[6]

Export Performance - In August 2024, China's export value reached $308.65 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.7%, up 1.7 percentage points from July, exceeding market expectations of 7.0%[2] - The trade surplus expanded significantly to $91.02 billion, an increase of $23.8 billion (35.4%) year-on-year[2] - The compound annual growth rate of exports based on 2019 levels rose by 1.2 percentage points to 7.5%[2] Import Performance - In August 2024, China's import value was $217.63 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of only 0.5%, down 6.7 percentage points from July[4] - The compound annual growth rate of imports based on 2019 levels decreased marginally by 0.1 percentage points to 3.9%[4] - Imports of major commodities and raw materials showed a weakening trend, with significant declines in metals, coal, and crude oil, while rubber and pulp imports increased[4] Market Dynamics - Export momentum is influenced by external demand, shipping costs, and trade frictions, with shipping rates declining by 7.5% from the end of July[2] - The postponement of U.S. tariffs on China and uncertainties related to the U.S. elections may motivate companies to expedite exports[2][5] - Exports to the U.S. and ASEAN decreased to growth rates of 4.9% and 9.0%, respectively, while exports to the EU and Latin America increased to 13.4% and 19.7%[3]

Inflation Overview - August CPI inflation recorded at 0.6%, slightly above the previous value of 0.5% but below market expectations of 0.7%[2] - August PPI inflation at -1.8%, significantly lower than the previous value of -0.8% and market expectations of -1.4%[2] CPI Analysis - Food prices drove CPI inflation, with a 3.4% month-on-month increase and a 2.8% year-on-year increase, contributing 0.5 percentage points to CPI[2] - Pork prices increased by 7.3% month-on-month, while year-on-year growth slowed to 16.1% due to base effects[2] - Core CPI inflation fell by 0.2% month-on-month and grew only 0.3% year-on-year, indicating weak demand in core goods[2] PPI Analysis - August PPI inflation decreased by 1.8% year-on-year and 0.7% month-on-month, with a widening decline compared to July[3] - Prices in upstream, midstream, and downstream sectors all weakened, reflecting persistent domestic demand issues[3] - Upstream mining and raw material prices fell by 1.6% and 1.2% month-on-month, respectively, indicating a broader price decline across sectors[3] Future Outlook - Inflation may continue to rise moderately, but the divergence between CPI and PPI will depend on policy effectiveness[4] - Full-year CPI inflation is expected to stabilize around 0.6%, while PPI inflation may converge towards -1.2%[4]

|研究院 纽约分行 行内偕作·宏观点评 2024 年 9 月 12 日 1 服务通胀，商品通缩 ——美国 CPI 通胀数据点评（2024 年 8 月） 8月美国通胀数据符合预期。CPI同比增速放缓至2.5%（市场预期2.5%）； 环比增速 0.2%（市场预期 0.2%）；核心 CPI 同比增速保持在 3.2%（市场预期 3.2%），环比增速 0.3%（市场预期 0.2%）。"服务通胀，商品通缩"格局仍在 延续，前者反映财政支撑下的美国国内韧性，后者则反映货币压制下的全球 失衡。本轮美联储降息周期或现"稳健开局"，年内降息幅度介于 50-75bp。 一、总览：服务通胀，商品通缩 美国大选年财政扩张继续支撑居民消费。财政对居民的转移支付增加， 抵消居民纳税支出回升，削弱储蓄动机，消费继续扩张。亚特兰大联储 GDPNOW 模型预测三季度美国居民消费增速高达 3.5%，其中服务消费增长 2.8%，商品消费增长 5.0%。 服务价格在消费韧性支撑下表现出通胀粘性，商品价格则在全球供需失 衡影响下表现为持续通缩，与国内消费脱钩，全球主要经济体商品价格均处 通缩状态。核心分项方面，8 月核心服务 CPI 同比增长 4.9% ...

Group 1: Gold Price Trends - Gold price has reached a new historical high, breaking $2550, which is the lower limit of the target range set earlier this year ($2550-$3000) [2] - The upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate cut cycle and low real yields on U.S. Treasuries are key factors supporting gold prices [2] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, continue to provide a favorable sentiment for gold [2] Group 2: Shanghai Gold Performance - Shanghai gold has shown weaker performance compared to London gold, currently just above 580 RMB and has not surpassed previous highs [3] - The rapid appreciation of the RMB since early August has eroded some of the gains in gold prices [3] - The enthusiasm for gold purchases may have cooled as prices reached high levels, leading to a near-zero price differential between domestic and international gold [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - Gold is expected to maintain an upward trend and may continue to set new historical highs, with the target range remaining at $2550-$3000, corresponding to a Shanghai gold price range of 580-680 RMB (assuming an exchange rate of 7.1) [4] - Despite a short-term weakening in central bank gold purchasing logic, the long-term trend of reserve rebalancing remains intact, providing ongoing support for gold [4] - Market expectations for interest rate cuts are already priced in, and potential inflation risks in the housing sector may lead to a more cautious approach to aggressive rate cuts, resulting in a slower upward trajectory for gold prices [4]

|研究院 纽约分行 行内偕作·宏观点评 2024 年 9 月 12 日 1 服务通胀，商品通缩 ——美国 CPI 通胀数据点评（2024 年 8 月） 8月美国通胀数据符合预期。CPI同比增速放缓至2.5%（市场预期2.5%）； 环比增速 0.2%（市场预期 0.2%）；核心 CPI 同比增速保持在 3.2%（市场预期 3.2%），环比增速 0.3%（市场预期 0.2%）。"服务通胀，商品通缩"格局仍在 延续，前者反映财政支撑下的美国国内韧性，后者则反映货币压制下的全球 失衡。本轮美联储降息周期或现"稳健开局"，年内降息幅度介于 50-75bp。 一、总览：服务通胀，商品通缩 美国大选年财政扩张继续支撑居民消费。财政对居民的转移支付增加， 抵消居民纳税支出回升，削弱储蓄动机，消费继续扩张。亚特兰大联储 GDPNOW 模型预测三季度美国居民消费增速高达 3.5%，其中服务消费增长 2.8%，商品消费增长 5.0%。 服务价格在消费韧性支撑下表现出通胀粘性，商品价格则在全球供需失 衡影响下表现为持续通缩，与国内消费脱钩，全球主要经济体商品价格均处 通缩状态。核心分项方面，8 月核心服务 CPI 同比增长 4.9% ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that the Federal Reserve is expected to initiate a rate cut in September, which is seen as a significant trading theme in the market [4][15][24] - The report highlights that the U.S. economy is showing signs of slowing down, with employment data triggering recession speculation, leading to increased rate cut expectations [4][15][24] - The report suggests that the domestic market may see a policy implementation window in September, which could boost market risk appetite [4][15][17] Group 2 - The report provides a market outlook for various asset classes, recommending high allocation to U.S. dollar bonds and gold, while suggesting a balanced approach for A-shares and other equities [4][19][24] - It emphasizes that the U.S. stock market is expected to maintain a volatile upward trend, but with limited upside potential due to high valuations [4][22][24] - The report notes that the domestic bond market is expected to experience fluctuations, with a recommendation to hold bonds and consider short-term debt and cash-like assets [4][19][24] Group 3 - The report discusses the potential impact of new demand-side policies in China, particularly in real estate, which could support market performance if implemented effectively [4][15][17] - It highlights that the performance of A-shares is under pressure from weak fundamentals, but policy support could lead to a rebound [4][19][24] - The report suggests a cautious approach to equity investments, focusing on dividend strategies and sectors with independent growth logic [4][19][24]

[Table_Yemei0] 宏观研究·月度报告 2024 年 8 月 29 日 | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------|-------| | | | | [Table_Title1] 海外政策行至拐点，中国政策有待加力 | | | | | | | | | —— 宏观经济月报（ 2024 年 8 月） | | [Table_summary1] ■ 海外政策行至拐点，美联储 9 月降息已成定局，美国降息周期开启。美 国方面，三季度经济温和降温，地产投资是边际拖累，居民消费则在财政扩 张支撑下延续韧性。考虑到美股震荡加剧，楼市亦显疲态，美联储应当开启 降息。由于财政扩张大概率持续至大选前，不宜高估美联储年内降息节奏， 预计年内降息幅度介于 50-75bp 之间。日本方面，通胀回暖驱动日本经济开 启一轮内生性修复，但美国衰退交易引发日元套息大规模逆转，日本股市及 汇市剧烈震荡，危及金融稳定，日央行仍将在通胀修复和金融稳定之间摇 摆。欧洲方面，巴黎奥运会短期提振难掩经济颓势，欧央行料将继续降息。 ■ 国内实体经济方面，7 月 ...

| --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------|-------| | | | | [Table_Title1] 传媒行业之电子游戏篇① —— | | | | | | 路在脚下：中国电子游戏行业的悄然崛起 | | [Table_Author1]雷霆 [Table_summary1] ■ 2024 年中国游戏产业再次迎来了一次标志性时刻。国产游戏《黑神话：悟空》 凭借其卓越的画质、深厚的文化内涵以及创新的玩法，迅速在全球市场上引发热 潮。仅在上市后的三天内，这款游戏的销量便突破了 1000 万份，成为 2024 年 最具影响力的游戏之一。根据相关机构预测，该游戏的最终销量或将达到 2000 万份，销售额或将突破 60 亿元人民币。《黑神话：悟空》的成功不仅展示了中国 游戏产业在全球市场中的崛起，也为行业的发展提供了新的方向与机遇。 ■ 截至 2023 年，全球电子游戏市场收入已达 1.18 万亿元人民币。电子游戏已经 成为当代社会的重要组成部分，不仅提供了丰富的娱乐体验，还通过全球文化传 播和电子竞技，深刻影响了现代文化的多样性。自 1958 年以 ...

1 宏观点评（2024 年 8 月 26 日） 美国降息周期开启 ——鲍威尔 2024 年杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会讲话点评 美东时间 8 月 23 日，美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会发 表讲话，明确"政策转向时机已经到来"，并对疫情以来的通胀起落和美联储 政策操作进行总结性回顾。 一、政策前瞻：9 月降息已成定局 鲍威尔首次释放明确降息信号，9 月降息已成定局。鲍威尔在讲话中表 示，通胀上行风险有所减弱，就业下行风险有所增加，政策调整的时机已经 到来。 美联储政策重心已由"抗通胀"转向"稳就业"。鲍威尔认为，劳动力 市场已经大幅降温，不太可能继续推升通胀。一是失业率逐步上行，7 月已 较低点上行约 1pct 至 4.3%。二是新增就业动能放缓，职位空缺比回归疫前 水平，雇佣率和离职率均已低于疫前水平。值得注意的是，8 月 21 日，美国 劳工部将截至 2024 年 3 月的 12 个月新增就业人数大幅下修 82 万，其间月 均新增就业人数已从 24 万降至 17 万，完全回归疫前水平。三是薪资增速有 所放缓，7 月薪资同比降至 3.7%，为 2021 年 5 月以来最低水平。鲍威尔特 别指出，当前美国 ...