|研究院 纽约分行 行内偕作·宏观点评 2024 年 8 月 1 日 1 降息讨论开启，落地时点存疑 ——美联储议息会议点评（2024 年 7 月） 美东时间 7 月 31 日，美联储宣布将利率水平继续维持在 5.25-5.50%区间， 缩表节奏继续维持在$600 亿/月。 7 月议息会议标志着美联储官方开启降息讨论，但鲍威尔拒绝对降息的 时点与节奏做出任何明确表态。前瞻地看，美国宏观政策正在朝着"双宽松" 方向发展，或对经济及通胀形势再度构成支撑，降息进程仍将一波三折。 一、经济：提振信心 美联储认为经济仍处稳步扩张状态，鲍威尔主席在新闻发布会上明确表 示硬着陆概率非常低。美联储在声明文本中保留了"经济稳步扩张"的表述， 鲍威尔则在新闻发布会上驳斥了部分人对美国经济的质疑，特别强调了私人 国内最终购买保持了强劲且稳定地增长，没有任何数据指向美国经济处于过 热或剧烈降温的状态。 美联储认可通胀与就业（双重目标）数据持续向好。美联储在声明文本 中大幅软化了对双重目标的表述：通胀方面，对抗通胀进展的评价更加积极。 就业方面，新增失业率"有所上行"的表述。鲍威尔在新闻发布会上对双重 目标持谨慎乐观态度，旨在强调美联 ...

[Table_Yemei0] 宏观研究·月度报告 2024 年 7 月 30 日 日，党的二十届三中全会在北京召开，审议通过了《中共中央关于进一步全 面深化改革、推进中国式现代化的决定》。 | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------| | [Table_Title1] 海外经济走向分化，中国经济波动修复 —— 宏观经济月报（ 2024 年 7 月） | | | [Table_summary1] ■ 海外经济走向分化，美国经济向"软着陆"更进一步，欧日经济则出现 | 谭卓 | | " 滞胀"迹象。美国方面，服务消费转冷驱动通胀继续降温，但经济增长整 | 招商银行研究院总经理助理 | | 体依然强劲，指向通胀回落来自经济动能转换，软着陆概率有所提升。如若 | ： 0755-83167787 | | 美联储积极推进 9 月降 ...

研究院 [Table_Yemei0] 资本市场研究•月度报告 2024 年 7 月 31 日 +[Table_Title1] 境外降息交易利于固收，境内基本面支持股弱债强 ——资本市场月报（2024 年 8 月） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|------------|----------|-------|--------|-----------------------|-------------------------|-------|----------| | | 大类资产 | 月度趋势 | 高配 | 中高配 | 配置建议（未来 \n标配 | 6 个月） \n 中低配 | 低配 | 配置变化 | | | 美元 | 震荡 | | | ● | | | | | | 欧元 | 震荡 | | | ● | | | | | 汇率 | 人民币 | 偏强震荡 | | | ● | | | | | | 日元 | 震荡 | | | ● | | | | | | 英镑 | 偏强震荡 | | | ● | | | | | | 中国国债 | ...

1 政策研究（2024 年 7 月 23 日） ——二十届三中全会《决定》经济思想学习体会 一、总论：意义、指导思想与目标 （一）三中全会：传承与革新 7 月 15-18 日，党的二十届三中全会在北京召开，审议通过了《中 共中央关于进一步全面深化改革 推进中国式现代化的决定》（下称《决 定》）。习近平总书记就《决定（讨论稿）》向全会作了说明（下称《说 明》）。《决定》分三大板块，15 个部分，内容条目通篇排序，开列 60 条，共提出 300 多项重要改革举措。 总体上看，《决定》旨在推动生产关系和生产力、上层建筑和经济 基础、国家治理和社会发展更好相适应，为中国式现代化提供强大动力 和制度保障。 《决定》第一板块是总论，主要阐述进一步全面深化改革的意义和 总体要求。 自党的十一届三中全会开启改革开放的伟大进程以来，历届三中全 会均与推进经济体制改革、推动社会主义现代化建设紧密相关，议题各 有侧重。党的十二、十四、十六届三中全会聚焦经济体制改革，十五、 十七届三中全会聚焦农村农业制度改革。进入新时代，党的十八届三中 全会开启全面深化改革，十九届三中全会聚焦深化党和国家机构改革。 《决定》指出，党的十一届三中全会 ...

一、政策考量 加强逆周期调节，完善利率调控 四是抓住美联储降息预期上升的时间窗口，做好兼顾内外。当前美联 储 9 月开启降息的可能性有所上升。一方面，二季度美国多项经济数据 走弱，与资产价格走势相背离，指向高利率对美国经济抑制滞后效应开始 显现。6 月美国服务业 PMI 跌至荣枯线下方，失业率上行至 4.1%，CPI 通 胀回落至 3%，指向疫后服务消费脉冲已经退坡，劳动力市场亦在趋势性 转冷。另一方面，首场电视辩论和宾州枪击事件后，特朗普民调支持率大 幅上行。若未来大选形势"一边倒"，下半年拜登政府财政政策力度或不 及预期，这将进一步提高美联储年内降息的可能性。选择在当下这一窗口 期进行操作，有利于减缓降息对人民币汇率带来的压力，实现兼顾内外。 A 股：央行下调 LPR，反映了政策的宽松态度，有助于提振投资者信 心，降低融资成本，对股市构成利好。但是由于调降幅度较小，对基本面 的实际利好效果有限，主要效果还是体现在维护市场信心。A 股大盘维持 震荡格局的观点不变。 本次降息时点符合预期，降息幅度略低于预期。这一政策操作贯彻了 二十届三中全会"强调坚定不移实现全年经济社会发展目标"的会议精神， 落实了潘功胜行 ...

Group 1: Financial Performance and Strategy - Norinchukin Bank's expected loss for the fiscal year 2024 is projected to reach ¥1.5 trillion, nearly 23.6 times its net profit of ¥636 billion in 2023[43] - The bank's total assets as of 2023 stand at ¥99.8 trillion, ranking it fifth in Japan's banking sector[44] - During the fiscal years 2012-2021, Norinchukin Bank's asset scale expanded by 46.9%, surpassing the average growth of Japanese banks by 8.7 percentage points[90] Group 2: Historical Context and Market Trends - The period from 1996 to 2011 marked a "bond era" in Japan, where public sector debt increased by 120%, and the macro leverage ratio rose from 84.7% to 191.9%[8] - From 2002 to 2011, Norinchukin Bank's credit assets shrank by 35.4%, while its securities assets nearly doubled, growing by 101.5%[10] - In the current U.S. interest rate hike cycle (2022-present), Norinchukin Bank has increased its short-duration asset holdings by 27.9%[24] Group 3: Investment Strategy and Risks - The bank's overseas bond investments accounted for 41.8% of its securities portfolio, significantly higher than the industry average of 12.8%[60] - As of 2023, Norinchukin Bank's overseas assets made up 52% of its investment portfolio, indicating a strong focus on international markets[79] - The bank's unrealized losses from overseas bond investments have escalated from ¥1.04 trillion to ¥-1.77 trillion between 2021 and 2023, with bond assets contributing to a loss of ¥2.19 trillion[25] Group 4: Future Outlook - The bank is expected to shift back towards domestic credit business as Japan's economic conditions improve, with a potential recovery in private sector credit demand[26] - Norinchukin Bank plans to reduce its interest rate risk exposure and increase its credit risk exposure to diversify its investment strategy[37]

[Table_Yemei0] 行业研究·深度报告 [Table_Author1]雷霆 2024 年 6 月 30 日 [Table_Title1] 建筑行业之绿色建筑篇（上）—— 绿色建材：聚焦传统产能技改与新型节能建材 [Table_summary1] ■ 国家政策引领下的绿色建材低碳化生产，预计在 2030 年将形成超过 5800 亿元的市场规模。绿色建材拥有节能、减排、安全、便利和可循环特征，在近 几年的投融资活动呈现波动上升的趋势。 行业研究员 行业研究员 ：0755-82954616 招商银行研究院 ： leit@cmbchina.com ：0755-82954616 ■ 聚焦能效标杆水平比例提升，钢铁在低碳改造方面至 2030 年的低碳化改造 投资规模或超 880 亿元，水泥和平板玻璃也将相应超过 600 亿元和 300 亿元水 平。钢铁、水泥和平板玻璃作为传统核心建材，其产能的燃烧碳排放和过程碳 排放是重要攻克难点，通过对生产链各个环节的低碳改造如防范过剩产能、加 强原燃料替代、建设数字工厂、采用 CCUS 技术等能够有效实现该等领域的绿 色生产。 ：leit@cmbchina.com 何勇 策 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the offshore wind power equipment industry Core Insights - China's offshore wind power is entering a transition period towards full grid parity, with uncertainties in the short to medium term but promising long-term prospects. The core contradiction in the development of offshore wind equipment lies in demand, as the installation capacity significantly declined after the cancellation of national subsidies in 2022. The approval delays due to military and navigation reasons are direct constraints, but the key bottleneck is the significant drop in project profitability. The report estimates new installations of 10GW and 13GW in 2024 and 2025, respectively, with a long-term focus on deep-sea development [1][10][17] - Under cost-reduction pressure, different segments of the offshore wind industry chain have varying price reduction potentials and measures. The key to improving project profitability lies in reducing lifecycle costs. The report highlights two main strategies: 1) the large-scale manufacturing of wind turbines as a primary cost-reduction method, focusing on segments like foundations and towers where value dilution is minimal; 2) enhancing the operational capabilities and efficiency of offshore wind installation vessels to lower installation and maintenance costs [1][10][29] - The offshore wind foundation and tower segments exhibit strong anti-deflation capabilities, presenting opportunities for leading companies to expand internationally. The usage and value of wind turbine foundations increase with water depth, which can offset the dilution of usage caused by large-scale manufacturing. Leading tower companies are expected to face temporary overcapacity in the domestic market but possess strong competitiveness for international expansion, with companies like Dajin Heavy Industry poised to benefit [1][10][29] - There is a structural shortage of offshore wind installation and maintenance vessels, necessitating supplementation. The lifecycle of offshore wind farms requires various marine equipment, with installation and maintenance vessels being critical. The report notes that the surge in orders for installation vessels from 2020 to 2022 may lead to structural overcapacity, while the maintenance market is still in its infancy, presenting growth opportunities for leading manufacturers and specialized third-party maintenance companies [1][10][29] Summary by Sections 1. Demand Side of Offshore Wind Power in China - Short to medium-term uncertainties exist, while long-term prospects are promising. The economic viability and approval issues are disrupting short-term installation demand. The transition towards full grid parity is ongoing, with significant declines in new installations observed post-subsidy withdrawal [11][17][20] 2. Continuous Cost-Reduction Pressure in Offshore Wind Projects - The offshore wind industry chain faces ongoing cost-reduction pressures. The large-scale manufacturing of wind turbines is a primary method for cost reduction, and enhancing marine equipment levels is crucial for lowering engineering costs. Operators hold a "chain master" position, transmitting cost pressures down the chain, with varying pressures across different segments [29][33][37] 3. Offshore Wind Foundations and Towers - The foundation and tower segments show strong anti-deflation capabilities, with opportunities for international expansion. The domestic market may experience temporary overcapacity, leading to a focus on international markets for leading companies [48][49] 4. Structural Shortage of Offshore Wind Marine Equipment - There is a structural shortage of installation and maintenance vessels, with the maintenance market still developing. The report emphasizes the need for specialized vessels to enhance operational efficiency and reduce lifecycle costs [1][10][29]

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In June, China's new social financing (社融) amounted to 3.3 trillion yuan, slightly above market expectations of 3.22 trillion yuan, but down 928.3 billion yuan year-on-year[3] - New RMB loans totaled 2.13 trillion yuan, matching market expectations but down 920 billion yuan year-on-year[3] - M2 growth rate was 6.2% year-on-year, below the expected 6.7%, while M1 decreased by 5.0%[3] Group 2: Loan and Financing Structure - New loans to non-financial enterprises were 1.63 trillion yuan, down 650.3 billion yuan year-on-year, with medium and long-term loans contributing 970 billion yuan, down 623.3 billion yuan[4] - Government bond financing increased by 848.7 billion yuan in June, up 311.6 billion yuan year-on-year, supporting social financing[6] - Corporate deposits increased by 1.0 trillion yuan, significantly down 1.1 trillion yuan year-on-year, reflecting a slowdown in loan generation[6] Group 3: Market Trends and Future Outlook - The decline in M2 growth rate expanded by 0.8 percentage points to 6.2%, indicating a widening liquidity gap[6] - Despite a slight decline in financial data, the focus on "quality over quantity" suggests that total changes may not accurately reflect the real demand of the economy[24] - Future social financing and M2 growth rates are expected to gradually recover as the high base effect diminishes and macro policies potentially strengthen in the second half of the year[24]

Economic Overview - China's GDP growth in Q2 2024 was 4.7%, slightly below market expectations, down 0.6 percentage points from Q1[4] - The industrial capacity utilization rate increased by 1.3 percentage points to 74.9% in Q2, indicating initial progress in capacity clearance[17] Demand and Consumption - Retail sales growth in June was 2.0%, below expectations, with a month-on-month decline of 0.12%, marking the first negative growth of the year[10] - Service consumption grew by 5.4% year-on-year, while automotive consumption continued to decline, exacerbating the overall retail sales recovery[10] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth was 3.9% in June, slightly down from May, primarily affected by real estate investment pressures[20] - Manufacturing investment maintained a high growth rate of 9.5% year-on-year, supported by industrial upgrades and favorable financing policies[10] Real Estate Sector - Real estate sales in June saw a decline of 14.5% in area and 14.3% in value, but the rate of decline narrowed compared to May[8] - Real estate investment growth improved slightly to -10.1%, indicating some recovery in the sector[8] Export Performance - In June, export values exceeded $900 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 5.7%, contributing positively to economic growth[17] - The trade surplus in June was $99.1 billion, reflecting strong external demand despite domestic challenges[10]