Group 1: Trade Policy Overview - The Biden administration announced an increase in tariffs on seven categories of goods imported from China, with a total value of approximately $18.6 billion, affecting 4.4% of total U.S. imports from China[2][7] - Tariff rates will rise from the current 0%-25% to 25%, and in some cases, up to 50% or 100%[2][7] - The affected goods can be categorized into four main groups: green industry products (77% of the total), semiconductor products (12%), traditional manufacturing products (7%), and medical products (low percentage)[2][9] Group 2: Short-term Impact - The direct impact on China's exports is expected to be limited, with the total export value to the U.S. around $500 billion, while the new tariffs only affect $18.6 billion worth of goods[12][11] - There is a potential for "export rush" behavior among Chinese companies to mitigate the impact of tariffs, which may temporarily support export momentum[12][11] - Increased trade uncertainty may arise, affecting bilateral trade dynamics and potentially influencing other countries to adopt similar measures against China[12][11] Group 3: Long-term Implications - The long-term effects of the trade war could lead to a restructuring of global supply chains and adjustments in China's industrial structure[14][15] - Post-election, there is a possibility of further increases in tariffs, with a non-linear escalation not ruled out[14][15] - The U.S. may expand the scope of tariffs to include goods processed in third countries that contain Chinese elements, reflecting changes in trade patterns[14][15] Group 4: Economic Context - Since 2021, the trade dependency between China and the U.S. has decreased, but China's export performance remains closely tied to U.S. demand[2][14] - The U.S. remains the most significant single market for Chinese manufacturing, necessitating proactive measures from China to prepare for potential changes in the trade environment[2][14]

Inflation Overview - September CPI inflation recorded at 0.4%, lower than previous value (0.6%) and market expectation (0.7%) [2] - September PPI inflation at -2.8%, below previous value (-1.8%) and market expectation (-2.5%) [2] CPI Analysis - Food prices remain a strong support for CPI, with pork, fresh vegetables, and fruits continuing to rise, but at a slower pace [3] - September food prices increased by 0.8% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, contributing 0.6 percentage points to CPI [3] - Core CPI fell by 0.1% month-on-month and grew only 0.1% year-on-year, marking a decline for three consecutive months [3] PPI Analysis - September PPI recorded a year-on-year decline of -2.8% and a month-on-month decrease of -0.6% [4] - Prices in the mining, raw materials, and processing industries fell by 1.6%, 1.2%, and 0.6% respectively, reflecting weak domestic demand [4] Future Outlook - Anticipated fiscal policies aimed at supporting economic recovery and consumer confidence may lead to a rise in CPI inflation towards 0.6% for the year [5] - PPI inflation is expected to stabilize around -1.9% as domestic demand improves [5]

Policy Stance - The Ministry of Finance has expressed a strong commitment to support the economy through proactive fiscal policies, indicating a willingness to increase fiscal measures in the future[3] - The Ministry acknowledged that national public budget revenue is below initial targets, emphasizing the need to complete annual budget goals and economic development tasks[3] Funding Requirements - Approximately CNY 2.3 trillion is needed to achieve the two major tasks set by the Ministry of Finance, with an additional CNY 1.3 trillion required to meet budget expenditure targets based on the growth rate from January to August[5] - To achieve a GDP growth rate of around 5%, an extra CNY 0.5 to 1 trillion is necessary to support investment and consumption[5] Funding Sources - Existing incremental policy arrangements and available funds could reach CNY 2.4 trillion, including CNY 400 billion allocated from local government debt limits and CNY 2 trillion in special bond funds available for use in the fourth quarter[5] - The central budget stabilization fund has a balance of CNY 398 billion, with CNY 150 billion available for allocation beyond the planned CNY 250 billion for the year[5] Long-term Direction - The focus of the new policies is on mitigating risks related to local government debt, financial institutions, and the real estate sector, while also ensuring social welfare and promoting consumption[6] - A significant increase in government debt limits may occur, potentially adding CNY 10 trillion to the existing limits, which will help alleviate local debt pressures[7] Market Impact - The expansionary fiscal policy is expected to boost market sentiment and improve fundamental expectations, although the A-share market may experience cautious reactions in the short term[10] - The 10-year government bond yield is projected to fluctuate between 1.9% and 2.2%, with a potential adjustment of 10-20 basis points[10] Future Outlook - The fiscal deficit rate may be significantly raised in the future, with expectations for the 2025 fiscal deficit rate to reach 3.8%, maintaining the level set after adjustments in 2023[12] - An increase in special bond issuance is anticipated, with CNY 4 trillion allocated for new special bonds, part of which will be used for debt resolution and acquisition of existing housing stock[12]

Export Performance - In September 2024, China's export amount was $303.71 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 2.4%, down 6.3 percentage points from August[2] - The export growth rate for September was affected by seasonal misalignment and weakening momentum, with a compound annual growth rate of 6.8% based on 2019[3] - Notable export growth was seen in automobiles (25.7%) and ships (113.8%), while major commodities like agricultural products and textiles faced declines[3] Import Performance - In September 2024, China's import amount was $222.0 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 0.3%, marking a second consecutive month of near-zero growth[4] - The import growth rate was influenced by low import prices and a potential increase in quantity decline[4] - Imports from the US and ASEAN saw a decline to 6.7% and 4.2%, respectively, while imports from the EU and Australia showed a narrowing decline[4] Trade Balance - The total import and export amount in September was $525.71 billion, with a trade surplus of $81.71 billion, expanding by $6.59 billion (8.8%) year-on-year but contracting by $9.31 billion (-10.2%) month-on-month[2] Future Outlook - For Q4 2024, export momentum is expected to moderate due to weak global demand, with an annual export growth forecast of 4.3%[5] - October's export growth may improve due to a lower base effect, but a year-end decline is anticipated[5] - Domestic policies are expected to provide slight support for import momentum compared to Q3[5]

我是声望会员策略的陆浩川今天我们邀请声望各个行业非常资深的各位老师跟我们一起来聊一下最近的一个算是热点招商企业的8家业务上市公司在本周一同日集体公告 虽然绝对金额确实不能说特别大普遍占总市值的1%左右但是信号的意义是不容忽视的 所以今天我们分几点来聊一下这件事情首先我这边可能回答几个自上而下的问题第一个问题是这样一个统一行动意味着什么更重要的是为什么是现在发生第二个事情是这批回货的公司它整体上从总量上的哪些特征这些特征背后的原因 那么第三个的话就是我们各位老师会自下而上的去跟各位投资者汇报在自己行业内有哪些公司可能未来会有类似的回扩增值或者说会受益于类似的包括后续的发财政策等等那么我这边就先做一个简要的汇报首先是why not为什么是现在统一行动有两个我们觉得是比较重要的编辑变化第一个编辑变化是这个市值管理指引即将落地这个指引的话是9月24日 三七头这个座谈会上由吴清武主席提出来的那更准确的说呢其实在国旧桥中间就布置了这个任务那么现在等于是在执行那么这个事实管理指引呢大家注意他是9月24日去征求意见那么一个月的时间也就是10月24日下周一周后多的时间呢他就会征求意见完毕那么等到最终的这个落地生效按照过往的一个 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that domestic policies have exceeded expectations, significantly boosting market risk appetite and suggesting a phase of increased equity allocation [3][14][15] - The report anticipates two phases in market trading for the fourth quarter: first, trading more supporting policies, and second, trading the fundamental performance post-policy implementation [14][15] - The report suggests that the recent policy measures are likely to enhance the medium-term returns of equity assets, particularly in the A-share market [14][15] Group 2 - The report indicates that the U.S. Federal Reserve has officially entered a rate-cutting cycle, with expectations of further cuts in the coming years, which is expected to lower the yield on U.S. Treasury bonds [13][21] - It is noted that the performance of U.S. equities is expected to remain stable but with limited upward potential due to high valuations and economic slowdown concerns [19][21] - The report recommends maintaining a high allocation to U.S. dollar bonds, as the Fed's rate cuts are expected to lower bond yields further [21][22] Group 3 - The report discusses the outlook for the Chinese yuan, indicating a short-term strengthening due to recent policy measures, but warns of long-term pressures from interest rate differentials and potential trade tensions [22] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the impact of U.S. election outcomes on market dynamics, particularly regarding trade relations and economic policies [13][22] - The report suggests that the A-share market is likely to challenge previous resistance levels, with a focus on dividend stocks and selective allocations to consumer and technology sectors [18][19]

Group 1: Overseas Economic Trends - The divergence in major Western economies is re-emerging, with the U.S. showing strength while Europe is weak, as evidenced by the Fed's unexpected 50bp rate cut in September[1] - The U.S. economy is supported by a "dual easing" macro policy, leading to a significant recovery, while the European Central Bank is implementing hawkish rate cuts due to economic slowdowns in France and Germany[1] - Japan's economy is experiencing a stable recovery, with the Bank of Japan expected to continue raising interest rates despite recent financial market turbulence[1] Group 2: U.S. Economic Insights - The Fed's rate cut of 50bp was driven by a reassessment of inflation risks and employment trends, with the policy rate still high at 4.75-5.0% after the cut[18] - The U.S. fiscal deficit for the 2024 fiscal year has reached $1.9 trillion, exceeding the previous year's deficit, with expectations of continued fiscal expansion leading up to the elections[18] - Consumer spending is projected to grow at an annualized rate of 3.7% in Q3, primarily supported by fiscal measures, with goods consumption expected to rise by 5.5%[21] Group 3: Financial and Fiscal Conditions - In August, new RMB loans amounted to 900 billion, significantly lower than seasonal expectations, impacting social financing growth[1] - The M2 money supply growth remains stable at 6.3%, but M1 growth has dropped to -7.3%, indicating insufficient monetary activity[1] - Fiscal revenues in August showed a widening decline, with tax revenues underperforming and land transfer income hitting a historical low[1] Group 4: Chinese Economic Outlook - China's economic recovery continues but faces increasing pressure from weak supply and demand, with the urgency to achieve a growth target of around 5% rising[1] - Domestic investment and consumption growth rates are declining, while external demand remains resilient, highlighting the need for policy support and fiscal investment projects[1]

Employment Data - In September, the U.S. added 254,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding market expectations of 150,000[2] - The unemployment rate decreased to 4.1%, slightly better than the expected 4.2%[2] - The labor participation rate remained stable at 62.7%, matching market expectations[2] Economic Support - The fiscal and monetary "dual easing" has supported economic recovery, with the federal deficit reaching $651.7 billion in Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 115.4%[3] - The Atlanta Fed's GDPNOW model indicates a steady economic expansion with an annualized growth rate exceeding 2% for Q3 2024[3] Labor Market Dynamics - Job vacancies rebounded to 8.04 million in August, with a vacancy rate of 4.8%[4] - The labor supply remains tight due to an aging population and a decline in illegal immigration, with the participation rate for those aged 55 and older down by 4.0% compared to 2019[4] Wage Trends - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.4% month-on-month in September, with a year-on-year growth rate rebounding to 4.0%[2] - Wage growth is occurring in sectors experiencing labor shortages, with professional and business services seeing a 0.8% increase in wages[5] Market Reactions - Following strong employment data, market expectations for interest rate cuts have moderated, with anticipated cuts reduced from 65 basis points to 50 basis points for the remainder of the year[7] - U.S. Treasury yields rose significantly, with the 2-year yield increasing by 22 basis points to 3.92%[7] Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower rates 1-2 times this year, with a total reduction of 25-50 basis points anticipated[8] - The Fed's decision-making flexibility has improved due to significant inflation reduction and strong employment figures[8]

1 政策研究（2024 年 9 月 26 日） ——2024 年 9 月中央政治局会议精神解读 一、形势分析：正视困难、坚定信心 二、宏观政策：加大逆周期调节力度 9 月 26 日，中共中央政治局召开会议（下文简称"会议"），分析研 究当前经济形势，部署下一步经济工作。 此次会议突破常规，以经济工作为主题，定调更加积极的政策立场， 凸显中央对当前经济工作的高度重视。相较 7 月政治局会议，本次会议通 稿篇幅减半，更加简洁有力，略去了诸多固定提法，未提及新兴产业和未 来产业、化解风险等工作，鲜明突出了"逆周期""稳增长"的主题。 会议强调，切实增强做好经济工作的责任感和紧迫感，加大逆周期调 节力度，干字当头、众志成城，勇于担责、敢于创新，认真落实"三个区 分开来"，为担当者担当、为干事者撑腰，努力完成全年经济社会发展目 标任务。 会议肯定了今年以来的经济工作，认为"经济运行总体平稳、稳中 有进"。相较 7 月中央政治局会议"延续回升向好态势"表述更为审慎。 三季度 GDP 同比增速的市场预测中枢下探至 4.6%，在上半年经济增长 5% 的基础上，全年实现"5%左右"经济增长目标的难度加大，政策加力的 紧迫性显著 ...

1 |研究院 纽约分行 行内偕作·宏观点评 2024 年 10 月 11 日 美国降息预期趋缓 ——美国 CPI 通胀数据点评（2024 年 9 月） 9 月美国通胀数据略超预期。CPI 同比增速放缓至 2.4%（市场预期 2.3%）； 环比增速 0.2%（市场预期 0.1%）；核心 CPI 同比增速上行至 3.3%（市场预期 3.2%），环比增速 0.3%（市场预期 0.2%）。 随着商品价格结束深度通缩，服务通胀粘性问题或再度回归美联储视野。 结合近期数据判断，美联储三季度点阵图可能低估经济韧性与通胀粘性，四 季度降息幅度或由指引中的 50bp 收窄至 25bp。 一、总览：通胀粘性"再确认" 从需求看，三季度美国消费加速扩张。亚特兰大联储 GDPNOW 模型预 测三季度美国居民消费增速将较二季度上行 0.5pct 至 3.3%，其中商品消费增 速达到 5.7%。 消费韧性的背后，是薪资高增、财政扩张、通胀回落三者支撑下的实际 收入增速回升。年中以来剔除通胀后的居民实际可支配收入同比增速见底回 升，5-8 月上行 0.4pct 至 2.9%，较 2019 年均值高出 0.1pct。值得一提的是，9 月 2 ...