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里昂:万洲国际上半年营运改善步伐加快 升目标价至9.26港元
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-08-18 04:01
Core Viewpoint - The report from Credit Lyonnais indicates that WH Group (00288) is expected to see a 10.4% year-on-year increase in operating profit for the first half of 2025, with an operating profit margin improvement of 1.4 percentage points. Sales revenue is projected to grow by 8.9%, marking the best performance since the second half of 2020 [1] Group 1 - The increase in operating profit is significantly driven by the rise in pork prices in the US and Mexico, with profit per ton reaching historical highs [1] - The second quarter of 2025 is expected to show positive growth in the sales volume of packaged meat products [1] - Credit Lyonnais maintains a "highly confident outperform" rating for WH Group and raises the target price to HKD 9.26 [1] Group 2 - In the Chinese market, there is optimism regarding the company's specialized category management, expansion into low-penetration areas, and reforms in the sales channels for packaged meat products [1] - Management has raised the operating profit guidance for the US business in 2025, anticipating continued improvement in the sales volume of packaged meat products in China [1]
里昂:万洲国际(00288)上半年营运改善步伐加快 升目标价至9.26港元
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-08-18 04:01
Core Viewpoint - The report from Credit Lyonnais indicates that WH Group (00288) is expected to see a 10.4% year-on-year increase in operating profit for the first half of 2025, with an operating profit margin improvement of 1.4 percentage points [1] Financial Performance - Sales revenue is projected to grow by 8.9% year-on-year, marking the best performance since the second half of 2020 [1] - The operating profit per ton has reached a historical high, driven by rising pork prices in the U.S. and Mexico [1] Business Segments - The packaging meat products segment in the U.S. is expected to show positive growth in sales volume for the second quarter of 2025 [1] - In the Chinese market, the company is optimistic about its specialized category management, expansion into low-penetration areas, and reforms in packaging meat product sales channels [1] Management Guidance - The management has raised the operating profit guidance for the U.S. business for 2025 [1] - It is anticipated that the sales volume of packaging meat products in China will continue to improve [1]
猪肉:全国猪肉零售会后要点,2025 年下半年包装肉制品受关注;其他板块前景良好;买入万洲国际-Pork_ NDR takeaways_ 2H25 packaged meat in spotlight; sound outlook for other segments; Buy WH Group
2025-08-18 02:52
Summary of WH Group and Shuanghui Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Consumer Staples, specifically focusing on the pork and packaged meat sectors Key Points and Arguments 1. Packaged Meat Outlook - Positive outlook for packaged meat in 2H25, driven by stronger demand in China and Europe, while the US market remains steady [1][2] - Management expects higher year-over-year (yoy) growth in volume and operating profit for the China business (Shuanghui) in the second half of the year, supported by favorable hog prices and lower raw material costs [2] 2. Poultry and Hog Production - The company is nearing breakeven/profitability in its poultry and hog production business in China [1] - US hog production profit forecast raised to $105 million for the full year, up from the higher end of the previous guidance of $100 million [1][2] 3. Slaughtering Business Improvement - Improvement in the slaughtering business in China, with strong volume growth despite lower unit profit [1] - Management anticipates lower hog production costs in China to align with industry averages, projecting all-in costs around RMB 14/kg by 4Q25 [2] 4. Strategic Focus and Shareholder Returns - WH Group is committed to shareholder returns, increasing the payout ratio to no less than 50%, up from 30% previously [1] - Long-term focus includes optimizing the pork supply chain, investing in core packaged meat business, diversifying meat products, and automating production processes [9] 5. Sales Channel Dynamics - Traditional sales channels (supermarkets, agricultural wholesale) saw a 13% yoy sales decline in 1H25, while new channels (snack discounters) achieved over 20% yoy growth [2][8] - New products, such as Spicy Sichuan Pepper Chicken Sausage, are gaining traction, contributing approximately 10% to total sales volume in 1H25 [8] 6. Financial Projections and Valuation - Adjustments made to WH Group's 2025-27E EPS by +0-2% and target price raised to HK$9.4 from HK$8.6, reflecting a narrowing NAV discount from 35% to 28% [10][11] - Shuanghui's 25-27E NP increased by 0.3-0.4%, with a target price of RMB 25.3 based on a 17X 2025 P/E [12][19] 7. Risks and Challenges - Key risks include competition in packaged meat, demand fluctuations for fresh pork, and potential food safety issues that could impact consumer trust [19][21] - Volatility in live hog prices and higher corn prices could pressure margins for Shuanghui's pork and packaged meat segments [21][20] 8. Market Position and Future Outlook - WH Group's strategy includes focusing on cost-saving measures and disciplined pricing to enhance profitability in international markets, particularly the US and Europe [2] - The company anticipates robust growth in the pet food industry in the US, leveraging synergies from raw materials and existing clients [8] Additional Important Information - Management's commitment to continuous improvement in operational efficiency and product offerings is evident, with a focus on high-value products and innovative marketing strategies [2][8] - The overall sentiment from the management indicates a strong belief in the company's ability to navigate market challenges and capitalize on growth opportunities in the consumer staples sector [1][2]
研报掘金|中金:上调万洲国际目标价至9.5港元 维持“跑赢行业”评级
Ge Long Hui· 2025-08-15 02:33
Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC indicates that WH Group's revenue for Q2 this year reached $6.833 billion, representing an annual growth of 11.8% [1] - Operating profit was $661 million, showing a year-on-year increase of 3.4% [1] - Excluding the impact of a $87 million government subsidy received by the U.S. subsidiary in the same period last year, the core net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 18% year-on-year [1] - The profit for the period met market expectations [1] Company Performance - In the Chinese market, the sales volume of meat products in Q2 grew year-on-year, with significant growth in emerging channels [1] - Sales growth is expected to improve quarter by quarter in the second half of the year, with slight growth anticipated for both annual sales and profit per ton [1] - In the North American market, the sales volume of meat products showed slight year-on-year growth, and profit per ton remained high [1] - The pig farming business in North America is expected to remain optimistic in the second half of the year [1] Investment Outlook - CICC maintains a "outperform industry" rating for WH Group [1] - Given the recent increase in valuations for high dividend-paying sectors, the target price has been raised by approximately 11% to HKD 9.5 [1]
万洲国际(00288.HK):万洲国际2Q25利润符合预期 中期分红提振
Ge Long Hui· 2025-08-14 18:36
Core Viewpoint - The company's 2Q25 financial results met market expectations, with revenue and operating profit showing positive growth, while core net profit experienced a decline due to previous government subsidies impacting year-over-year comparisons [1][2]. Financial Performance - 2Q25 revenue reached $6.833 billion, representing a year-over-year increase of 11.8% - Operating profit for 2Q25 was $661 million, up 3.4% year-over-year - Core net profit attributable to shareholders, excluding biological asset value changes, was $361 million, down 8.1% year-over-year; adjusting for a $87 million government subsidy in 2Q24, the core net profit would have increased by 18% year-over-year [1]. Development Trends China Region - The company anticipates a year-over-year increase in meat product sales for 2Q25, with significant growth in emerging channels - Sales growth is expected to improve quarter by quarter in the second half of the year, with slight increases in both annual sales and profit per ton - The company plans to increase slaughter volume and expand customer and outlet coverage, although profit margins may be pressured due to increased competition and market investments [1]. North America Region - In 2Q25, meat product sales showed slight year-over-year growth, maintaining high profit per ton levels - The company expects optimistic conditions for its pig farming business in the second half of the year, driven by rising pig prices and low feed costs - The subsidiary Smithfield has raised its full-year operating profit guidance for pig farming to between $0-100 million [1]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026, with the current stock price corresponding to 8.5 and 8.2 times the P/E ratios for 2025 and 2026, respectively - The target price has been raised by approximately 11% to HKD 9.5 per share, reflecting an upside potential of about 13.6% from the current stock price [2].
星展:升万洲国际目标价至9.6港元 下半年前景稳健
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-08-14 09:16
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that WH Group's (00288) China packaged meat business sales are expected to increase by 1% year-on-year in Q2 2025, driven by precise sales strategies, new channel expansion, and regional market recovery [1] - The forecast for 2025 and 2026 earnings has been raised by 3% and 2% respectively, reflecting a stronger outlook for the U.S. business, with the target price increased from HKD 8.7 to HKD 9.6; it is anticipated that revenue and profit margins in the Chinese business will improve in the second half of the year [1] - Management expects growth momentum to strengthen in the second half of the year, with sales recovery offsetting the weak performance in the first half; despite rising marketing and labor costs, falling pork prices and improved operational efficiency are expected to support record-high profits, projected at RMB 4,700 per ton [1] Group 2 - In the U.S. market, stable hog prices and declining feed costs indicate robust momentum and a positive outlook; pork demand remains resilient compared to beef and chicken [1] - Smithfield, a subsidiary, has raised its full-year operating profit guidance by over 3.8% to USD 1.15 billion to USD 1.35 billion, while continuing to reduce underperforming farms and maintaining a mid-term production target of 10 million hogs [1] - Although packaged meat may face profit pressure due to rising pork prices, management plans to alleviate this through price adjustments, product mix optimization, and cost control to support ongoing profit margin expansion in the U.S. business [1] Group 3 - In Europe, the group is focusing on high-margin, high-growth product categories to drive long-term growth; management plans to fill product gaps through acquisitions, prioritizing pan-European brands [2] - With sales expected to exceed 400,000 tons this year, the group aims to improve profitability per ton to levels close to those in the U.S. and China through product mix and operational improvements [2]
星展:升万洲国际(00288)目标价至9.6港元 下半年前景稳健
智通财经网· 2025-08-14 09:14
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Wan Zhou International's (00288) sales in the Chinese packaged meat business are expected to increase by 1% year-on-year in Q2 2025, driven by precise sales strategies, new channel expansion, and regional market recovery [1] - DBS has raised its profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 3% and 2% respectively, reflecting a stronger outlook for the US business, and has increased the target price from HKD 8.7 to HKD 9.6 [1] - The management anticipates that growth momentum will strengthen in the second half of the year, with sales recovery offsetting the weak performance in the first half [1] Group 2 - In the US market, the outlook is positive due to stable hog prices and declining feed costs, with pork demand remaining resilient compared to beef and chicken [1] - Smithfield has raised its full-year operating profit guidance by over 3.8% to USD 1.15 billion to USD 1.35 billion, while continuing to reduce underperforming farms and maintaining a mid-term target of 10 million hogs in production [1] - The company plans to alleviate profit pressure from rising pork prices through price adjustments, product mix optimization, and cost control to support ongoing profit margin expansion in the US business [1] Group 3 - In Europe, the group is focusing on high-margin, high-growth product categories to drive long-term growth [2] - The management intends to fill product gaps through acquisitions, prioritizing pan-European brands [2] - With sales expected to exceed 400,000 tons this year, the group aims to improve profitability per ton to levels close to those in the US and China through product mix and operational improvements [2]
小摩:升万洲国际目标价至9.6港元 评级“增持”
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-08-14 04:42
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that WH Group (00288) is expected to see a year-on-year sales growth of 8.9% and a growth in adjusted EBITDA of 4.5% for the first half of 2025, which aligns with market expectations [1] - The report highlights an optimistic outlook for the Chinese market in the second half of 2025, contributing to a projected sales and operating profit growth of 12% and 3% respectively in Q2 2025 [1] - The target price for WH Group has been raised from HKD 8.8 to HKD 9.6, with a rating of "Overweight" [1] Group 2 - The bank estimates that WH Group's full-year sales and profit for 2025 will grow by 3% and 4% year-on-year, indicating a decline of 2% in sales and a growth of 3% in profit for the second half of the year [1] - WH Group's stock price has increased by 42% year-to-date in 2025, outperforming the Hang Seng Index, which has risen by 27%, driven by business recovery and increased dividend payments leading to a 27% valuation re-rating [1] - The bank forecasts a full-year dividend of HKD 0.60 per share for WH Group, resulting in a dividend yield of 7.2% [1]
小摩:升万洲国际(00288)目标价至9.6港元 评级“增持”
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-08-14 03:29
该行估计集团2025年全年销售额/盈利同比分别增长3%/4%,意味着下半年分别下跌2%/增长3%。2025 年至今,万洲股价上涨42%,相较恒生指数上涨27%,得益于业务复苏和股息支付增加带来的27%估值 重估。该行预测万洲全年每股股息为60港仙,股息率为7.2%。 智通财经APP获悉,小摩发布研报称,万洲国际(00288)2025年上半年销售额/生物公允价值调整前盈利 同比增长8.9%/4.5%,基本符合市场预期。这意味着2025年第二季销售额/营运利润同比增长12%/3%。 业绩惊喜主要来自对中国市场下半年的乐观展望以及中期股息上调。将目标价从8.8港元上调至9.6港 元,评级增持。 (原标题:小摩:升万洲国际(00288)目标价至9.6港元 评级"增持") ...
大行评级|摩根大通:上调万洲国际目标价至9.6港元 评级“增持”
Ge Long Hui· 2025-08-14 02:33
Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that WH Group's sales and adjusted EBITDA for the first half of the year grew by 8.9% and 4.5% year-on-year, respectively, aligning with market expectations [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The report suggests that by Q2 2025, sales and operating profit are expected to grow by 12% and 3% year-on-year [1] - The main driver for the positive performance is the optimistic outlook for the Chinese market in the second half of the year and an increase in the interim dividend [1] - For the full year 2025, sales and profit are projected to grow by 3% and 4%, respectively, indicating a decline of 2% in sales and a growth of 3% in profit for the second half of the year [1] Group 2: Stock Performance - WH Group's stock price has increased by 42% year-to-date, outperforming the Hang Seng Index, which rose by 27%, attributed to business recovery and increased dividend payments leading to a 27% valuation re-rating [1] - The forecast for the full year indicates a dividend of 60 Hong Kong cents per share, resulting in a dividend yield of 7.2% [1] - The target price has been raised from HKD 8.8 to HKD 9.6, with a rating of "Overweight" [1]