欧洲业务：我们预计2Q25 利润延续同比增长趋势。我们预计肉制品业务保持持续增长，主要系内部提 效和产品结构优化。我们预计2Q25 猪肉业务整体与去年同期盈利情况同比平稳。 盈利预测与估值 我们保持25/26 年核心归母净利润16.14/16.83 亿美元。公司交易在8.1/7.8 倍25/26 年P/E；维持目标价 8.56 港币/股，对应8.7/8.4 倍25/26年P/E和近7.8%上行空间，维持跑赢行业评级。 风险 机构：中金公司 研究员：王文丹/陈文博/武雨欣 我们预计公司2Q25 可比口径营业利润同比低双位数增长我们预计万洲国际可比口径下2Q24 经营利润同 比有望低双位数增长（即剔除2Q24 美国业务中政府补助影响），符合市场预期。 关注要点 中国业务：我们预计2Q25 肉制品销量同比回稳，养殖业务减亏较明显。 1）肉制品：我们预计2Q25 销量同比回稳、吨利受益于成本下降有望同比有所提高。据全国商超数据 2025 年4-5 月份肉制品行业GMV同比-3%，其中双汇GMV同比-1%。2）养殖业务：我们预估1H25 国内 养殖业务进一步减亏，主因饲料成本的下降以及内部提效。3）屠宰：我们预计2Q2 ...

黄金股、有色金属股普涨，灵宝黄金（03330.HK）涨6.24%，洛阳钼业（03993.HK）涨3.96%，中国宏 桥（01378.HK）涨3.44%，紫金矿业（02899.HK）涨3.46%，山东黄金（01787.HK）涨2.53%。消息 上，亚洲早盘，现货黄金短线拉升重回3340美元/盎司上方。中金研报称，如果美联储主席提前离职， 给定其他条件不变，利空美元，利好黄金，美债短端牛陡、中长端熊陡直至美联储重启扩表压制长端利 率。 7月18日，港股三大指数集体反弹。其中，恒生指数涨1.33%，国企指数涨1.51%，恒生科技指数涨 1.65%。 分板块看，SaaS概念涨幅居前，汇量科技（01860.HK）涨15.56%，移卡（09923.HK）涨10.11%，金蝶 国际（00268.HK）涨7.27%，迈富时（02556.HK）涨5.84%，医渡科技（02158.HK）涨4.95%。消息面 上，2025世界人工智能大会（WAIC）将于7月26日至7月29日启幕。 稳定币概念再度走高，其中，耀才证券金融（01428.HK）大涨16.93%，云锋金融（00376.HK）大涨 15%，OSL集团（00863.HK）涨 ...

Core Viewpoint - As of July 18, 160 stocks reached their 52-week highs, with notable performances from China New Economy Investment (00080), Aoyuan Group Equity (02905), and Zhong An Holdings Group (08462) showing high growth rates of 288.89%, 55.28%, and 50.00% respectively [1][2]. Summary by Category 52-Week High Performers - China New Economy Investment (00080) closed at 0.440, with a peak price of 0.700, achieving a growth rate of 288.89% [2]. - Aoyuan Group Equity (02905) closed at 0.218, with a peak price of 0.250, achieving a growth rate of 55.28% [2]. - Zhong An Holdings Group (08462) closed at 0.221, with a peak price of 0.228, achieving a growth rate of 50.00% [2]. - Other notable performers include Hualian International (00969) with a growth rate of 40.13% and Zhongke Bio (01237) with a growth rate of 37.25% [2]. Additional High Performers - Wanma Holdings (06928) closed at 0.550 with a growth rate of 30.43% [2]. - Lepu Biopharma-B (02157) closed at 7.940 with a growth rate of 24.54% [2]. - Other stocks with significant growth include ZhiJianYueDong (06860) at 17.14% and China Jindian Group (08281) at 17.12% [2]. 52-Week Low Performers - The document also lists stocks that reached their 52-week lows, with XI Ernan CO-U (09311) showing a decline of 16.10% [6]. - Other notable declines include XI Ernan CO (07311) at -12.62% and Haotian International Construction Investment (01341) at -5.70% [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating on WH Group with a 12-month price target of HK$8.6 per share, indicating an upside of 15.9% from the current price of HK$7.42 [7]. - A "Neutral" rating is assigned to Shuanghui with an unchanged 12-month price target of Rmb25.2 per share, reflecting a modest upside of 2.4% from the current price of Rmb24.62 [8][18]. Core Insights - WH Group is expected to see a cyclical recovery in its US hog production business, with full-year profit forecasts uplifted to US$67 million, significantly above the company's guidance range [9][14]. - The China operations of WH Group are projected to return to a growth trajectory, with operating profit expected to grow by 8% year-over-year in 2Q25, following a decline of 14% in 1Q25 [9][10]. - The report anticipates WH Group's recurring operating profit in 2Q25 to grow approximately 13% year-over-year, one of the highest among traditional food companies [9][15]. Summary by Sections WH Group Financials - WH Group's market capitalization is HK$95.2 billion (approximately US$12.1 billion) with a revenue forecast of US$25.9 billion for 2025 [7]. - The company is expected to achieve an EBITDA of US$3.2 billion in 2025, with a P/E ratio of 8x for 2025E and a dividend yield of 7% [7]. - The report highlights a projected EPS of US$0.12 for 2025, with a consistent growth trajectory anticipated in subsequent years [7]. Shuanghui Financials - Shuanghui's market capitalization is Rmb85.3 billion (approximately US$11.9 billion) with a revenue forecast of Rmb59.7 billion for 2025 [8]. - The company is expected to achieve an EBITDA of Rmb8.8 billion in 2025, with a P/E ratio of 17.8x for 2025E and a dividend yield of 5.5% [8]. - The report projects an EPS of Rmb1.48 for 2025, indicating stable performance in the coming years [8]. Operational Insights - WH Group's China business is expected to stabilize in packaged meat and narrow upstream losses, although fresh meat remains under pressure due to a tough comparison base [9][10]. - The US business is projected to see a 3% year-over-year sales growth in packaged meat, with EBIT expected to decline by 3% year-over-year [13][14]. - The international segment is anticipated to trend upwards sequentially, with efficiency enhancements contributing to stable performance [15].

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - As of July 3, a total of 120 stocks reached their 52-week highs, indicating a strong market performance with notable leaders in the list [1]. Group 1: Top Performers - The top three stocks with the highest increase rates are: - 富誉控股 (Fuyou Holdings) at 90.76%, closing at 0.435 with a peak of 0.475 [1] - 信义能源 (Xinyi Energy) at 65.00%, closing at 1.200 with a peak of 1.980 [1] - 中国三三传媒 (China San San Media) at 42.86%, closing at 1.710 with a peak of 1.900 [1] Group 2: Additional Notable Stocks - Other notable stocks include: - ITE HOLDINGS at 34.21% increase, closing at 0.047 with a peak of 0.051 [1] - 星凯控股 (Xingkai Holdings) at 30.00%, closing at 0.480 with a peak of 0.650 [1] - 北京北辰实业股份 (Beijing Beichen Industrial) at 26.47%, closing at 0.940 with a peak of 1.290 [1] Group 3: Overall Market Trends - The overall trend shows a significant number of stocks achieving new highs, reflecting positive investor sentiment and market conditions [1].

Group 1 - The 618 shopping festival is recognized as a crucial event for boosting annual consumption, with calls for government support through subsidies and targeted consumption vouchers to stimulate spending in specific regions and demographics [1] - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a V-shaped rebound, with significant gains in sectors such as short videos, food and beverages, home appliances, and blind boxes, indicating strong market interest in consumer stocks [1] - The Hong Kong Consumption ETF (159735) tracks the Hong Kong consumption index, which includes a higher proportion of new consumption categories compared to A-shares, reflecting the impact of consumption policies on market recovery [1] Group 2 - The government is actively promoting consumption through measures such as increasing personal and internet consumption loan limits, which is expected to release pent-up consumer demand [2] - The Ministry of Commerce plans to launch a "Healthy Consumption Special Action Plan" during the Consumer Expo, focusing on health-related sectors to expand consumption scenarios [2] - Local governments are also contributing, with initiatives like Hainan's health and wellness industry development plan aimed at enhancing the quality of consumption in the region [2]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - As of May 28, a total of 65 stocks reached their 52-week highs, with notable performances from Kingway Medical Holdings (08559), China Silver Technology (00515), and Honghui Group (00183) leading the list with high rates of increase [1]. Group 1: Stocks Reaching 52-Week Highs - Kingway Medical Holdings (08559) achieved a closing price of 0.027 with a peak of 0.045, marking a high rate of 32.35% [1]. - China Silver Technology (00515) closed at 0.280, reaching a maximum of 0.305, resulting in a high rate of 28.15% [1]. - Honghui Group (00183) had a closing price of 0.255, with a peak price of 0.255, reflecting a high rate of 27.50% [1]. - Other notable stocks include Emperor Watch and Jewellery (00887) with a high rate of 27.14% and Sogo Department Store (00312) at 21.79% [1]. Group 2: Additional Stocks with Significant Increases - Lehua Entertainment (02306) reached a high rate of 13.73% with a closing price of 2.540 [1]. - Kingway Medical (08143) had a closing price of 0.124 and a peak of 0.230, resulting in a high rate of 10.05% [1]. - Other stocks with notable increases include Zhu Feng Gold (01815) at 6.98% and Yaoshi Bang (09885) at 6.68% [1]. Group 3: Stocks with Lower Performance - The report also includes stocks that did not perform as well, with some reaching their 52-week lows, such as China Parenting Network (01736) with a low rate of -14.40% [2]. - XI Nan Tes-U (09366) and XI Nan Tes (07366) also showed declines of -10.08% and -8.60% respectively [2]. - Other stocks like He Fu Hui Huang (00733) and Pai Ge Biomedical-B (02565) experienced decreases of -7.04% and -6.95% [2].

Core Viewpoint - Despite facing fundamental challenges, stagnant revenue growth, and significant profit fluctuations, the market capitalization of WH Group (万洲国际) has risen, primarily due to its low valuation levels and institutional support [1][2][7]. Financial Performance - WH Group reported a revenue of $6.554 billion for the recent quarter, a 6% year-on-year increase, while net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 18.3% to $380 million [1]. - Over the past three years (2022-2024), the company has experienced weak performance, with revenue declining and net profit showing significant volatility, with a profit margin of 5.8% in Q1 2025 [1][3]. - The company's market capitalization increased by 48.7% from 2022 to 2024, and by an additional 23% in the first two quarters of 2025, totaling an increase of HKD 41.83 billion [1]. Market Dynamics - WH Group's primary products, meat and pork products, contribute over 90% of its revenue, with significant reliance on the Chinese and U.S. markets [3]. - In 2024, revenue from meat products and pork was $13.655 billion and $10.343 billion, respectively, reflecting declines of 6.2% and 12.3% compared to 2022 [3]. - The European market showed strong growth, with meat product revenue increasing by 24.7% in 2024, maintaining double-digit growth over the past three years [3]. Capacity and Utilization - WH Group's total production capacity is 3.05 million tons, with 68.2% located in China, where the utilization rate is below 79% due to weak market consumption [4][5]. - The pork production capacity is 60.79 million heads, with utilization rates below 50% in China, although North America has shown better performance [4][5]. Risk Factors - The company faces uncertainties in both volume and price, particularly in the Chinese market, where production and prices are expected to decline in 2024 [5]. - U.S.-China trade tensions pose significant risks, potentially impacting growth in both core markets [6]. Financial Resilience - WH Group has a strong cash position, with cash equivalents of $2.055 billion and a low debt ratio of 16.7%, providing a solid financial foundation [6]. - The company has maintained a stable dividend policy, with a cumulative payout ratio exceeding 41% since 2011, attracting conservative investors [6]. Market Outlook - Analysts remain optimistic about WH Group's prospects, with target prices set at HKD 8.56 per share by CICC and HKD 8.2 by Bank of America, reflecting confidence in the company's ability to navigate current challenges [7]. - The company is viewed as being in a valuation recovery phase, with a price-to-book ratio of 1 and a price-to-earnings ratio of 7, indicating it is still undervalued [7].

Core Viewpoint - CICC maintains a positive outlook on WH Group (00288), projecting net profit attributable to shareholders of $1.614 billion and $1.683 billion for 2025 and 2026 respectively, with a target price of HKD 8.56 per share, indicating approximately 23.9% upside potential from the current stock price [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, WH Group's revenue reached $6.554 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.0%, while operating profit was $598 million, up 19.4% year-on-year, and core net profit attributable to shareholders was $364 million, reflecting a 20.9% increase year-on-year [2] - The profit performance in Q1 2025 slightly exceeded market expectations, primarily due to improved profitability in the U.S. farming business [2] Group 2: Domestic Business - In Q1 2025, the sales volume of meat products in the domestic market decreased by nearly 17.4%, with a profit per ton of approximately RMB 4,700, down 5.2% year-on-year [3] - Slaughtering volume in Q1 2025 increased by 11.8% year-on-year, with average profit per head rising by 11.6%, attributed to an increase in customer base and network coverage, alongside reduced competition [3] - The company's other segments, which include farming, saw a reduction in losses by RMB 140 million year-on-year, mainly due to improved controllable cost indicators in farming [3] Group 3: U.S. Business - In Q1 2025, the operating profit for meat products in the U.S. declined by 7.7%, with sales volume down approximately 3.7%, and profit per ton at $894, a decrease of 4.2% year-on-year, attributed to rising raw material costs and a delay in Easter [4] - The upstream farming business in the U.S. reported a profit of $17 million in Q1 2025, a significant improvement from a loss of $170 million in the same period last year, driven by rising hog prices [4] - Slaughtering profit contribution in Q1 2025 decreased by 27% year-on-year, as the increase in hog prices was less than the rise in live hog prices [4] Group 4: Outlook for 2025 - For domestic operations, the slaughtering business is expected to continue expanding its customer base and increasing slaughter volume, with further improvements in profitability for farming operations anticipated [5] - The meat products segment is projected to see improved sales starting from Q2 2025 as channel adjustments stabilize and inventory levels recover [5] - In the U.S., meat product profitability is expected to remain stable despite rising hog prices, as the company can pass on costs through pricing formulas and efficiency optimizations, with robust demand for meat protein [5]

Financial Performance - WH Group's revenue increased by 60% year-over-year to $6554 million in Q1 2025[9] - EBITDA increased by 166% year-over-year to $786 million in Q1 2025[9] - Operating profit increased by 194% year-over-year to $598 million in Q1 2025[9] - Profit attributable to owners of the company increased by 209% year-over-year to $364 million in Q1 2025[9] - Basic earnings per share increased by 209% year-over-year to $00284 in Q1 2025[9] Sales Volume - Packaged meats sales volume decreased by 92% year-over-year to 714000 metric tons in Q1 2025[9] - Pork sales volume increased by 44% year-over-year to 982000 metric tons in Q1 2025[9] Regional Performance - In Q1 2025, China accounted for 306% of the company's revenue[11] - North America accounted for 561% of the company's revenue in Q1 2025[11] - Europe accounted for 133% of the company's revenue in Q1 2025[11]