这份报告是由中国银河证券发布的《消费行业联合行业深度：十五五系列报告——畅想十五五，提振内需，消费将与生产并重》，主要探讨了中国在"十五 五"时期（2026-2030年）消费行业的发展趋势、政策导向、投资机会以及风险提示，以下是对这份报告的详细解读： 核心观点 - "十五五"规划的重要性：预计2024年四季度亮相的"十五五"规划对中国未来5年经济社会发展意义重大。鉴于当前经济运行中"有效需求不足"的突出问题， 规划可能从以往侧重生产转向生产与消费并重。 - 消费政策的加强：2024年起消费政策力度明显增强，包括统筹安排特别国债资金支持消费品以旧换新等。2025年政府再度安排资金持续支持，并预计2026 年仍将延续消费补贴政策。 - 服务消费的潜力：中国服务消费占比与发达经济体相比仍有较大差距，未来将大力推动服务消费发展，以激发消费者兴趣，优化消费环境。 - 科技消费的崛起：中国具备工程师红利，科技发展迅速，科技消费产品如扫地机、无人机等受到市场关注，有望催生新的消费需求。 - 消费整体机制的优化：通过消费税改革等措施推动地方政府从生产型向服务型政府转变，鼓励优质消费公司国际化发展，提升居民消费能力。 投资建议 ...

摩根大通发表研究报告，重申"反内卷"是中国市场未来18至24个月的主题交易，并有以下新评估： 1)"反内卷"政策最接近2021年防止资本无序扩张的监管思路，但范围更广，超过供给侧改革1.0，此次政 策重点在于理顺地方政府背书/补贴投资。2)有三个产业生态受影响，其中可再生能源股因收入结构优 于地产+宏观股，且政策执行力强于电商股，故具优先性。3)"反内卷"对中国股市极为关键，因更高的 ROI是在岸股市机构化进程中市场扩容的前提，该行认为"反内卷"将利好大型行业龙头股。 该行列出受 惠"反内卷"政策的中资首选股名单，包括大全新能源、恒力石化、宁德时代、中升控股、宝钢股份、顺 丰控股、广汽集团、中石油及中通快递。 ...

当资本市场仍在为汽车消费疲软而踌躇之际，内地汽车经销商龙头中升控股(00881)却悄然走出一条独 立行情。9月8日盘中，公司股价一路走高，一度涨超3%，截至发稿报16.45港元，涨幅1.61%，市场热 情再度升温。 中金公司（601995）发布研报指出，观察到中升控股的收入结构持续优化、特别是在行业深度调整阶 段，稳健的售后业务优势有效对冲了新车市场压力。虽然公司盈利承压但现金流改善，运营效率稳步提 升，随着新车销售结构优化及主要合作主机厂进入新产品周期，中金认为公司盈利有望修复。 值得一提的是，中升控股在业务结构方面也呈现出诸多积极变化。豪华车客户基盘持续扩大，活跃客户 数达454万名，同比增长15.2%，渠道网络深度优化，上半年新增57家经销店及20家维修中心，其中48 家为豪华品牌。往前看，随着行业内对非理性竞争的规范要求提升，该行预计车辆终端售价有望趋稳， 叠加德系豪华品牌新一代产品如奥迪A5L、奔驰CLA陆续上市，业务有望迎来修复。 中国银河（601881）证券也对中升控股及整个汽车经销行业进行了深入分析。中国银河证券指出，自 2024年下半年以来，中国4S门店数量首次进入减少状态。高杠杆并购带来的 ...

招商证券国际研报明确指出，中升控股上半年归母净利润低于市场一致预期主要是受新车及二手车盈利 能力承压影响，公司管理层判断新车市场即将迎来曙光，能够见底甚至有机会反转，源于经销渠道持续 整合，市场份额向龙头集中，其次强力的反内卷政策有利于汽车销售价格稳定。此外，公司核心支柱售 后稳健增长及新能源业务进展顺利，招商证券国际维持"增持"评级。 智通财经APP获悉，当资本市场仍在为汽车消费疲软而踌躇之际，内地汽车经销商龙头中升控股(00881) 却悄然走出一条独立行情。9月8日盘中，公司股价一路走高，一度涨超3%，截至发稿报16.45港元，涨 幅1.61%，市场热情再度升温。 这不仅是一次简单的股价上扬，更是一场关于行业格局重塑与龙头企业价值重估的深刻预演。包括大 摩、花旗、招银国际、中金在内的多家国内外大行近日纷纷发布研报，对中升控股的发展前景表达了积 极看法。 多家机构的观点是，在经历长达两年的行业深度调整后，中升控股正站在业绩底部反转的临界点。随着 行业整合加速、品牌矩阵优化、新能源转型深化以及售后业务持续发力，这家"车市守望者"正以稳健的 步伐，迈向新一轮增长周期。 中国银河证券也对中升控股及整个汽车经销行业 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic automotive circulation industry in China is facing intensified market competition and uneven consumer recovery in the first half of 2025, leading to significant challenges for dealers and a notable decline in performance across major groups [1] Group 1: Industry Performance - Only 30.3% of dealers achieved their sales targets in the first half of 2025, with a loss ratio rising to 52.6% [1] - 74.4% of dealers experienced varying degrees of price inversion, resulting in a situation where sales volume increased but revenue and profits did not [1] - Major listed dealer groups are experiencing exacerbated losses, with performance significantly diverging, highlighting the importance of the new energy vehicle (NEV) business as a key variable [1] Group 2: Financial Results of Major Dealers - Zhongsheng Holdings (00881.HK) reported a revenue of 77.322 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.2%, and a net profit of 1.011 billion yuan, down 36% [2] - New car sales revenue for Zhongsheng was 57.931 billion yuan, down 4.7%, with new car sales volume at 228,600 units, a decrease of 1.7% [2] - Yongda Automotive (03669.HK) saw a revenue of 27.072 billion yuan, down 12.8%, and a net loss of 3.33 billion yuan, compared to a net profit of 110 million yuan last year [3] - Yongda's new car sales volume was 72,501 units, down 13.4%, with new car sales and related services revenue at 20.532 billion yuan, a decline of 14.4% [3] - Meidong Automotive (01268.HK) reported a revenue of 10.135 billion yuan, down 4.9%, and a net loss of approximately 815 million yuan, a nearly 30-fold increase from the previous year [3] Group 3: Strategic Adjustments and Opportunities - Dealers are actively adjusting their structures and shifting focus towards new energy vehicles, which have become a significant growth engine [4] - Zhongsheng noted that the AITO brand contributed to sales with 11,000 units sold, partially offsetting declines in other brands [4] - Yongda's independent NEV brand sales reached 10,312 units, a substantial increase of 49%, with nearly 6,000 orders retained for future growth [4] - The after-sales service remains a stable profit source, with Yongda's after-sales service revenue at 4.784 billion yuan, and NEV repair income rising by 75.8% [5] - Both Zhongsheng and Yongda anticipate ongoing competition but also see structural opportunities in the electric transformation of the industry and the growing after-sales market [5]

Group 1 - The top three companies with the highest short positions as of August 29 are ZTE Corporation (00763) at 16.47%, COSCO Shipping Holdings (01919) at 13.94%, and CATL (03750) at 13.88% [1][2] - The company with the largest increase in short positions is Ganfeng Lithium (01772), which rose by 2.85% to 12.46% [2][3] - The companies with the largest decrease in short positions include Hisense Home Appliances (00921), which decreased by 3.57% to 4.72%, and WuXi AppTec (02359), which decreased by 2.44% to 11.64% [3][4] Group 2 - The latest short position data shows that the top ten companies with the highest short ratios include China Ping An (02318) at 12.58% and Zijin Mining (02899) at 11.91% [2] - The companies with the most significant increases in short positions also include Huahong Semiconductor (01347) with an increase of 2.56% to 9.73% and Meitu (01357) with an increase of 1.80% to 4.85% [2] - The companies with the most significant decreases in short positions also include Weimob (02013) with a decrease of 1.66% to 9.40% and Linklogis Technology (09959) with a decrease of 1.43% to 2.76% [3][4]

今天（9月4日）上午，A股市场整体大幅调整，其中科创50指数盘中一度跌逾5%。多只前期热门股调整，拖累市场整体表现。 新能源赛道股票上午整体逆势走强，多股盘中涨幅超过10%，成为A股上午市场最大亮点之一。 A股市场整体调整 科创50指数盘中一度跌逾5% 今天上午A股市场整体大幅调整，主要指数不同程度下跌，其中上证指数盘中跌幅一度超过2%，深证成指盘中跌幅一度超过2.7%，创业板指数盘中跌幅一度超过 3.8%。科创50指数重挫，盘中跌幅一度超过5%。 行业板块和赛道方面，若按照申万一级行业划分，通信板块盘中重挫，板块盘中跌幅一度超过8%，该板块集中了多只前期涨幅较大的热门股。 具体来看，新易盛盘中一度大跌逾16%。新易盛近年走势强劲，为近年A股市场股价自低位涨了10倍以上的股票之一。 天孚通信、中际旭创、仕佳光子盘中均一度大跌逾14%，这些股票近年来表现非常强势，股价均自低位涨了数倍。 电子板块也重挫，板块盘中跌幅一度超过4%，该板块多只股票盘中跌停或跌幅超过10%，该板块的龙头股寒武纪-U重挫，盘中跌幅一度超过13%，该股最新股价已 低于1300元。前几个交易日寒武纪-U股价曾超过贵州茅台，成为A股市场第一高 ...

Market Overview - A-shares market showed a slight decline on the morning of September 3, with major indices experiencing minor adjustments, while the ChiNext index briefly strengthened [1][2][5] - The Shanghai Composite Index opened high but fell, with a drop exceeding 40 points at one point, while the Shenzhen Component Index performed relatively well [5] Individual Stock Performance - Despite the overall market adjustment, individual stocks remained active, with several stocks hitting the daily limit up [2][9] - EVE Energy saw a significant increase, with an intraday rise exceeding 14%, and its market capitalization fluctuated around 130 billion yuan [5] - Another leading stock in the ChiNext, Sungrow Power Supply, also surged, with an intraday increase of over 10%, bringing its latest market capitalization to over 220 billion yuan [5] Sector Performance - In terms of industry sectors, internet, comprehensive, electrical equipment, and semiconductor sectors led the gains, while multi-financial and transportation equipment sectors lagged [6] - Concept sectors such as lithography machine and electronic paper saw strong performance, with lithium mining concepts also performing well, although their gains narrowed later [7] Stock Trading Alerts - DeXin Technology hit the daily limit up for the fourth consecutive trading day, issuing a risk alert due to significant price fluctuations [10] - Bojie Co. also reached the daily limit up for the third consecutive day, confirming no undisclosed matters affecting its stock price [11] - Baiyin Nonferrous Metals hit the daily limit up for the third consecutive day, with a significantly high static P/E ratio compared to its industry peers [12] Hong Kong Market Overview - The Hong Kong market opened high but turned lower, with the Hang Seng Index experiencing a decline [13][14] - Among the Hang Seng Index constituents, companies like Zhongsheng Holdings, CSPC Pharmaceutical Group, and Xinyi Solar saw notable gains [15] Company Earnings - NIO Inc. reported its Q2 2025 earnings, with total revenue of 19.0087 billion yuan (approximately 2.6535 billion USD), a 9.0% increase year-over-year and a 57.9% increase quarter-over-quarter [16] - The net loss for NIO in Q2 2025 was 4.9948 billion yuan (approximately 0.6972 billion USD), a decrease of 1.0% year-over-year and 26.0% quarter-over-quarter [16] - NIO's vehicle delivery volume reached 72,056 units in Q2 2025, marking a 25.6% increase year-over-year and a 71.2% increase quarter-over-quarter [16] Stock Performance in Hong Kong - Neway Group experienced a significant drop, with an intraday decline exceeding 16%, despite reporting strong financial performance for the year ending June 30, 2025 [17]

Group 1: Hong Kong Stocks - Photovoltaic stocks rose in the morning, with Xinyi Solar (00968) up over 3%, Fuyao Glass (03606) up over 3%, and GCL-Poly Energy (00451) up over 3%. Domestic leading polysilicon companies have raised prices, and the market is focused on the restructuring progress in the polysilicon industry [1] - Heng Rui Medicine (01276) increased by over 5% after announcing the approval of HRS-7172 tablets for clinical trials by the National Medical Products Administration on September 2 [1] - Qingdao Bank (03866) rose over 2% as its major shareholder plans to increase holdings by 233 million to 291 million shares, recognizing the long-term investment value of the bank's stock [1] - Zhaojin Mining (01818) increased by over 1%, with a total market value exceeding HKD 100 billion, and the company is accelerating overseas project construction, indicating future growth potential [1] - Zhongsheng Holdings (00881) rose over 4%, with management optimistic about the new car market and smooth progress in the company's new energy business [1] - Innovent Biologics (09969) increased by over 5% after disclosing its interim performance report, with core products driving growth and accelerating multiple self-immune phase III clinical trials [1] - United Laboratories (03933) rose over 6% after announcing a 27% year-on-year increase in profit attributable to shareholders in its half-year results, with key progress in several products in the formulation segment [1] Group 2: U.S. Stocks - NIO (NIO.US) rose 3.13%, with vehicle deliveries in August 2025 reaching 31,305 units, a year-on-year increase of 55.2%, and total deliveries since 2025 reaching 166,472 units, up 30.0% [3] - Hesai Technology (HSAI.US) fell 2.91% as it plans to list in Hong Kong after passing the hearing [3] - Eli Lilly (LLY.US) rose 0.36% after Novo Nordisk's weight loss drug Wegovy outperformed it in a real-world comparative study [3] - Zai Lab (ZLAB.US) increased by 0.73% after announcing that its drug was approved in Hong Kong for treating recurrent or metastatic cervical cancer [3] - Beike (BEKE.US) rose 4.89% after reporting a 11.3% year-on-year increase in net income for the second quarter, leading multiple institutions to reaffirm a "buy" rating [3] - Gold stocks rose against the trend, with Gold Resource (GORO.US) up 15.80%, Harmony Gold (HMY.US) up 7.53%, and Kinross Gold (KGC.US) up 2.68%, driven by expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts and a weak dollar [3] - Corning (GLW.US) rose 2.15% after UBS raised its target price from $65 to $84 and upgraded its rating from "neutral" to "buy" [4] - Li Auto (LI.US) rose 4.50% as the founder announced plans to fully enter the high-end pure electric SUV market [4]

华泰证券研报表示，在新需求、新场景、新模式的共同催化下，消费领域呈现出鲜明的结构性机遇：需 求端加速向情感化、个性化升级，潮玩、美妆等高情绪价值品类增长显著；场景端服务+产品逐渐融 合，推动"人货场"关系持续重构，拓宽消费边界；国货品牌凭借商业模式创新与渠道效率构建强大用户 生态，实现加速崛起。建议重点关注兼具渗透率提升潜力、供给端能力跃迁及政策支持的细分品类，自 下而上看好具备体验价值和规模效应，产品力/渠道力/品牌力皆较为突出的龙头企业，把握新消费新阶 段的集中化、品牌化趋势。 热门ETF中，截至发稿，港股消费ETF（159735）涨0.94%。成分股方面，中升控股涨超9%，老铺黄 金、理想汽车-W、中国旺旺、李宁等多股涨幅居前。 资金流向方面，Wind数据显示，港股消费ETF（159735）近5日"吸金"超6200万元。 港股消费ETF（159735）跟踪中证港股通消费主题指数，该指数选取港股通范围内流动性较好、市值较 大的50只消费主题相关股票组成指数样本，采用自由流通市值加权，以反映港股通内消费类股票的整体 表现。 消息面上，据微信公众号"绍兴发布"消息，浙江绍兴9月2日召开新闻发布会，介绍该市即将 ...