港股汽车股持续跌势，其中，小鹏汽车绩后大跌超8%表现最弱，零跑汽车跌4.2%，蔚来跌3%，长城汽 车跌2.6%，理想汽车、赛力斯跌超2%，比亚迪股份、广汽集团、北京汽车均有跌幅。 消息面上，小鹏汽车昨日公布业绩显示，2025年Q3营收203.8亿元，同比增长102%，市场预估204.5亿 元；调整后每股亏损0.080元。季度毛利率为20.1%，较2024年同期上升4.8个百分点。小鹏汽车预计第 四季度营收215亿元至230亿元，同比增加约33.5%至42.8%。 乘联分会秘书长崔东树11月17日发文表示，10月份，社会消费品零售总额46291亿元，同比增长2.9%。 其中，汽车消费额4255亿元、同比降7%。1—10月份汽车消费额40009亿元、同比降0.2%。 | 代码 | 名称 | 最新价 | 涨跌幅 ^ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 09868 | 小鹏汽车-W | 88.050 | -8.28% | | 09863 | 零跑汽车 | 52.500 | -4.20% | | 09866 | 蔚来-SW | 47.840 | -3.00% | | 02333 | 长城汽车 | ...

记者｜ 葛慧 今日（11月17日），乘联分会秘书长崔东树披露的数据显示，2025年10月份，汽车消费额4255亿 元、同比降7%；1~10月，汽车消费额40009亿元、同比降0.2%。同期，汽车生产和投资仍实现了同 比增长。1～10月，汽车产量为2733万辆，同比增11%；汽车投资同比增速达到了17.5%，近两年汽 车投资超预期地强，处于近年1～10月历史高位，也远高于其它制造业行业的投资增速。 相关阅读： 10月新能源新车降价幅度超11% 编辑丨钉钉 ...

（文章来源：第一财经） 今日，乘联分会秘书长崔东树披露的数据显示，2025年10月份，汽车消费额4255亿元、同比降7%； 1~10月，汽车消费额40009亿元、同比降0.2%。同期，汽车生产和投资仍实现了同比增长。1～10月， 汽车产量为2733万辆，同比增11%；汽车投资同比增速达到了17.5%，近两年汽车投资超预期地强，处 于近年1～10月历史高位，也远高于其它制造业行业的投资增速。 ...

10月份，规模以上工业增加值同比实际增长4.9%。从环比看，10月份，规模以上工业增加值比上月增 长0.17%。1—10月份，规模以上工业增加值同比增长6.1%，其中，汽车制造业增长16.8%。 2020年汽车工业增加值增6.6%;2021年增速徘徊在5.5%的水平;2022年的汽车增加值6.3%，较强;2023年 汽车业增加值增13%，实现超强增长;2024年的9.1%的汽车增加值相对提升较好;2025年1-10月份的汽车 工业增加值增11.8%，10月汽车工业增加值增16.8%，表现很好。 智通财经APP获悉，11月17日，乘联分会秘书长崔东树发文称，2025年1—10月份，全国固定资产投资 (不含农户)408914亿元，同比下降1.7%。2025年汽车投资增速也达到17.5%，近两年汽车投资超预期的 强，处于近年的1-10月历史高位，也远高于其它制造业行业的投资增速。2025年10月汽车生产328台， 同比增11%；新能源汽车生产171万台，同比增19%，渗透率52%；燃油车生产157万台，同比增4%。 2025年1-10月汽车生产2733万台，同比增11%；新能源汽车生产1267万台，同比增28%，渗 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of cast aluminum alloy showed a volatile and upward trend, reaching a high of 20,920 yuan/ton during the week. With the end - of - year sales push in the automotive industry, the seasonal performance in the fourth quarter may be stronger. Considering the cancellation of tax - refund policies and the tight supply of scrap aluminum, the cost increase will strongly support the price. It is expected that the price of cast aluminum alloy will be volatile and upward in the short term, and the long - term view is bullish, suggesting looking for buying opportunities on dips [7]. - As of October 31, the combined inventory of aluminum alloy ingot factories and social warehouses decreased by 0.38 tons to 13.22 tons compared with the previous week, indicating a possible inflection point in inventory. The "trade - in" policy has been effective, and the fourth - batch of funds was advanced in late September, which is conducive to stabilizing consumer confidence and boosting automobile consumption. With the end - of - year sales push in the automotive industry, automobile sales are expected to improve month - on - month [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Transaction End - Volume and Price - Relevant data on trading volume, open interest, and capital precipitation are presented, but no specific conclusions are drawn from the data [10]. 2. Transaction End - Arbitrage 2.1 Inter - period Positive Arbitrage Cost Calculation - The cost of inter - period positive arbitrage for cast aluminum alloy was calculated. The fixed cost was 20.80 yuan/ton, the floating cost was 65.03 yuan/ton, and the total cost was 86 yuan/ton [13]. 2.2 Spot - Futures Arbitrage Cost Calculation - The cost of spot - futures arbitrage for cast aluminum alloy was calculated. The spot price was 20,800 yuan/ton, and the total cost of the warehouse receipt was 21,016.9 yuan/ton [15]. 3. Supply End - Scrap Aluminum - Scrap aluminum production is at a high level, and social inventory is continuously decreasing [17]. - Scrap aluminum imports are at a high level, with a relatively fast year - on - year growth rate. In September 2025, the import volume was 15.54 tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.69% [20]. 4. Supply End - Recycled Aluminum - The price of Baotai ADC12 has been slightly adjusted upwards, and the spread between recycled and primary aluminum has been volatile. The regional spread of cast aluminum alloy shows certain seasonal patterns [37][39]. - The weekly operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy has declined, while the monthly operating rate has increased. The monthly output of recycled aluminum alloy and its regional proportion are presented [44][47][49]. - The cost of ADC12 is mainly composed of scrap aluminum, and it is currently around the break - even point. The factory and social inventories of cast aluminum alloy have decreased, and the import window is temporarily closed [50][55][60]. - The production and inventory of recycled aluminum rods and their regional proportions are presented [63][64][66]. 5. Demand End - Terminal Consumption - Fuel - powered vehicles have entered the end - of - year sales push phase, which will drive die - casting consumption [69].

Core Insights - The automotive industry in China is experiencing a strong recovery, driven by the implementation of vehicle replacement policies and a significant increase in new energy vehicle production [1][2][5] Group 1: Automotive Consumption - In September 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 41,971 billion yuan, with automotive consumption accounting for 4,711 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2% [1][28] - From January to September 2025, total retail sales of consumer goods amounted to 365,877 billion yuan, growing by 4.5%, while automotive consumption reached 35,923 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1% [1][28] - Since the decline of the real estate market in 2021, automotive consumption has risen from 3.94 trillion yuan in 2020 to 5.03 trillion yuan in 2024, indicating a recovery from previous stagnation [5][26] Group 2: Automotive Production - In September 2025, automotive production reached 3.23 million units, a year-on-year increase of 14%, with new energy vehicles accounting for 1.58 million units produced, up 20% [1][19] - From January to September 2025, total automotive production was 24.05 million units, an 11% increase year-on-year, with new energy vehicles at 1.096 million units, a 30% increase [1][19] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in September 2025 reached 49%, up from 46% in the same period last year [1][19] Group 3: Investment Trends - In the first nine months of 2025, automotive investment grew by 19.2%, significantly outpacing the overall industrial investment growth of 6.4% [21][22] - The automotive investment in 2025 is at its highest level in six years, indicating a strong recovery in the sector [22] Group 4: Economic Context - The external environment remains complex, with challenges such as unilateralism and protectionism impacting supply chains, while domestic economic recovery is still fragile [2] - The automotive industry is expected to face significant pressure in 2026, necessitating long-term supportive policies to sustain growth [2][26]

Core Insights - The Chinese automotive industry has achieved double-digit growth in multiple economic indicators in the first nine months of 2025, with significant increases in both production and sales [1][5]. Production and Sales Data - From January to September, automotive production reached 24.4333 million units, while sales totaled 24.4363 million units, reflecting year-on-year growth of 13.3% and 12.9% respectively [5]. - New energy vehicles (NEVs) saw production and sales exceeding 11.24 million units, with year-on-year growth of 35.2% and 34.9%, making up 46.1% of total new car sales [5]. Export Performance - In terms of exports, 4.95 million vehicles were exported from January to September, marking a year-on-year increase of 14.8%. Notably, NEV exports reached 1.758 million units, showing a remarkable growth of 89.4% [2]. Market Trends - The automotive market has maintained a positive trend, with monthly year-on-year growth rates exceeding 10% for five consecutive months [3]. - In September alone, production and sales surpassed 3 million units for the first time in history, with year-on-year growth of 17.1% and 14.9% respectively [6]. Brand Performance - Chinese brand passenger vehicles accounted for approximately 70% of total passenger vehicle sales, with a cumulative share of 69% in the first nine months, an increase of 5.1 percentage points compared to the same period in 2024 [4]. Policy Impact - Recent government initiatives, including local purchase incentives and adjustments to tax exemption requirements for NEVs, are expected to stabilize automotive consumption and drive industry upgrades [6].

Core Insights - The Chinese automotive industry has experienced significant growth in multiple economic indicators, with production and sales both achieving double-digit increases in the first nine months of 2025 [1][4]. Group 1: Production and Sales Data - In the first nine months, automotive production reached 24.4333 million units, while sales totaled 24.4363 million units, representing year-on-year growth of 13.3% and 12.9% respectively [5]. - New energy vehicles (NEVs) saw production and sales exceeding 11.243 million and 11.228 million units, with year-on-year growth of 35.2% and 34.9%, respectively. NEV sales accounted for 46.1% of total new car sales [5]. Group 2: Export Performance - Automotive exports reached 4.95 million units in the first nine months, marking a year-on-year increase of 14.8%. NEV exports were particularly strong, totaling 1.758 million units, which is a remarkable year-on-year growth of 89.4% [3]. Group 3: Market Trends and Government Policies - The automotive market has maintained a positive trend, with monthly year-on-year growth rates exceeding 10% for five consecutive months [3]. - The introduction of local purchase incentives alongside national subsidies has positively impacted consumer confidence and automotive sales [6]. - A recent announcement by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology regarding the adjustment of technical requirements for NEVs is expected to drive industry upgrades and encourage higher R&D investments [6][8].

Core Insights - The automotive industry in China has shown significant growth in September 2025, with production and sales exceeding 3 million units for the first time in history, marking a year-on-year increase of 17.1% and 14.9% respectively [1] - The overall automotive market has maintained a positive trend, with monthly year-on-year growth rates exceeding 10% for five consecutive months, driven by policies such as vehicle trade-in programs and the launch of new models [1] Domestic Sales - In September, domestic sales of automobiles reached 2.574 million units, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 14.6% and a year-on-year increase of 13.4% [6] - For the first nine months of 2025, domestic sales totaled 19.414 million units, a year-on-year increase of 12.5% [6][33] - Traditional fuel vehicles accounted for 1.192 million units sold in September, with a year-on-year growth of 9.1% [6] Export Performance - In September, automobile exports reached 652,000 units, with a month-on-month increase of 6.7% and a year-on-year increase of 21% [11] - From January to September, total exports amounted to 4.95 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.8% [11] New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) - NEVs achieved a production and sales volume of 1.617 million units in September, with year-on-year growth rates of 23.7% and 24.6% respectively, making up 49.7% of total new car sales [57] - For the first nine months, NEV production and sales reached 11.243 million and 11.228 million units, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 35.2% and 34.9% [58] Key Enterprises - The top fifteen automotive groups in China sold a total of 22.476 million vehicles from January to September, a year-on-year increase of 12.9%, accounting for 92.3% of total sales [76] - BYD led the market with sales of 3.26 million units in the first nine months, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 18.8% [76] Commercial Vehicles - In September, commercial vehicle production and sales reached 376,000 and 368,000 units, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 27.7% and 29.6% [40] - For the first nine months, commercial vehicle production and sales totaled 3.091 million and 3.117 million units, with year-on-year increases of 9.4% and 7.8% [40] Market Trends - The market share of Chinese brand passenger vehicles reached 70.2% in September, up 2.5 percentage points from the previous year, with sales of 2.007 million units [20] - The sales of NEVs in the domestic market have significantly increased, with NEV passenger vehicles accounting for 56.5% of total passenger vehicle sales in September [68]

Group 1 - Multiple regions in China have adjusted their automobile replacement subsidy policies since October, indicating a trend towards enhancing consumer incentives in the automotive market [1][3] - Jilin Province has implemented a new vehicle scrapping and replacement subsidy policy, offering subsidies of 20,000 yuan for new energy vehicles and 15,000 yuan for fuel vehicles, with an initial funding of 10 million yuan available for consumer applications [1] - Shanghai has announced a new approach for its 2025 automobile replacement subsidy program, which will involve a public lottery system for qualification, reflecting a shift in policy to manage consumer participation [3] Group 2 - The suspension of subsidy policies in regions such as Shanxi, Hainan, Hangzhou, and Wenzhou suggests a strategic recalibration in response to market conditions, while other areas continue to stimulate demand through new incentives [3] - Recent data from the National Taxation Administration indicates a 4.5% year-on-year increase in daily sales revenue for consumer-related industries during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, with notable growth in digital products and automotive sales [3] - The China Automobile Circulation Association reported an increase in the automotive consumption index to 88.9 in September, with expectations for continued growth in October due to factors such as large auto shows and new vehicle launches [3]