同时，2025年上半年，仅有30.3%的经销商完成销售目标，七成经销商未能达标。价格倒挂持续恶化、新车毛利贡献降至-22.3%，叠加厂家返利周期长、 考核压力大，导致经销商对主机厂满意度跌至64.7分，创近14年新低。 半数经销商深陷亏损 新车毛利贡献为负 华夏时报记者温冲于建平北京报道 近日，中国汽车流通协会发布2025年上半年全国汽车经销商生存状况调查报告(下称"《报告》")。《报告》显示，2025年上半年，汽车经销商亏损比例上 升至52.6%，持平比例为17.5%，盈利比例为29.9%，"亏损面"首次突破半数，并创下近八年新高。汽车经销商的生存正面临严峻时刻。 中国汽车流通协会副秘书长郎学红表示，2025年上半年，在汽车报废更新和置换更新政策的拉动下，国内汽车消费温和回暖。但市场竞争白热化，厂家与 经销商纷纷靠降价换销量，全力争抢市场份额，结果陷入"销量涨收入不涨、收入增利润不增"的困局。 《报告》显示，2025年上半年，汽车经销商亏损比例上升至52.6%，持平比例17.5%，盈利比例29.9%。结合历史数据看，自2018年以来，经销商亏损比例 整体呈逐年上升趋势，2025年上半年的亏损比例首次突破半数 ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall inventory level of automobile dealers in July 2025 shows a decline both month-on-month and year-on-year, indicating a cautious market environment with a need for careful inventory management [2][3][10]. Group 1: Inventory Levels - In July 2025, the comprehensive inventory coefficient for automobile dealers was 1.35, down 4.9% month-on-month and 10.0% year-on-year, indicating that inventory levels are below the warning line but above the reasonable range [2][3]. - The total inventory of automobile dealers is estimated to be around 2.47 million vehicles, based on a terminal sales volume of 1.826 million passenger vehicles in July [5]. Group 2: Brand-Specific Inventory Trends - The inventory coefficient for high-end luxury and imported brands rose to 1.56, an increase of 13.0% month-on-month, while the inventory coefficient for joint venture brands increased to 1.29, up 2.4% [6][9]. - In contrast, the inventory coefficient for domestic brands decreased to 1.34, down 10.7% month-on-month, reflecting a more favorable inventory situation for these brands [6][9]. Group 3: Market Outlook and Recommendations - The automobile market is expected to remain stable in August 2025, with potential growth in terminal sales due to the release of pent-up demand from the back-to-school season and various promotional events [10]. - The China Automobile Dealers Association advises dealers to rationally estimate actual market demand and enhance the promotion of "old-for-new and scrapping policies" to boost consumer confidence while prioritizing cost reduction and efficiency [10].

本文字数：1319，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 武子晔 在汽车报废更新和置换更新政策的拉动下，今年上半年国内汽车消费温和回暖。但由于市场竞争白热 化，厂家与经销商纷纷降价换销量，经销商的生存状况进一步恶化。 8月18日，中国汽车流通协会发布的调查报告显示，2025年上半年汽车经销商亏损比例上升至 52.6%，持平比例17.5%，盈利比例仅29.9%。 2025.08. 20 中国汽车流通协会副秘书长郎学红表示，行业需要特别关注汽车经销商流动性不足的问题，如果不能 解决新车销售价格"倒挂"问题，那么负现金流经营就无法得到解决。特别是传统燃油品牌经销商，价 格倒挂导致新车业务亏损严重。而对于新能源独立品牌经销商来说，他们面临的压力主要是售后产值 低，投资回收期长等。 此外，据经销商反映，厂家对基础任务目标达成的奖励缩水，付出与回报严重失衡，今年上半年经销 商对主机厂的满意度明显下降。 不久前，长三角四大协会已联合发声，敦请主机厂共同改善经销商经营困境。声明中提到，行业存在 四个较为突出的问题，包括主机厂目标制定失衡；返利体系畸形；价格体系崩坏；配套服务受创等。 中国汽车流通协会方面表示，厂家对经销商的 ...

在汽车报废更新和置换更新政策的拉动下，今年上半年国内汽车消费温和回暖。但由于市场竞争白热 化，厂家与经销商纷纷降价换销量，经销商的生存状况进一步恶化。 8月18日，中国汽车流通协会发布的调查报告显示，2025年上半年汽车经销商亏损比例上升至52.6%， 持平比例17.5%，盈利比例仅29.9%。 今年上半年，仅30.3%的经销商完成销售目标，目标完成率低于70%的经销商占比29%，目标完成率高 于70%不足100%的经销商占比40.7%。 售后依旧是经销商毛利贡献最大的板块。 值得注意的是，新能源独立品牌的经销商经营状况好于传统燃油车品牌。新能源独立品牌经销商的盈亏 情况分别为：盈利占比42.9%，持平占比22.7%，亏损占比34.4%；传统燃油车品牌经销商的盈亏情况分 别为：盈利占比25.6%，持平占比15.8%，亏损占比58.6%。 目前，已有多家4S店转投新能源，甚至一些经营豪华品牌的经销商转投了问界等品牌。一位转投新能 源的经销商在接受记者采访时表示，尽管自主新能源品牌的返点佣金较豪华燃油品牌少，但好在"薄利 多销"，可以靠数量弥补，此外，豪华品牌的销售返点佣金也大不如前。 中国汽车流通协会副秘书长郎 ...

Core Insights - The survival status of automotive dealers in China has significantly deteriorated in the first half of 2025, with only 30.3% achieving their sales targets, and over 52.6% reporting losses [1][2][4] Group 1: Sales Performance - Only 30.3% of automotive dealers met their sales targets in the first half of 2025, with 29.0% of dealers achieving less than 70% of their targets [2] - Among different brand categories, luxury brands performed slightly better than joint venture and independent brands, with a higher percentage of dealers meeting their targets [2] Group 2: Pricing Issues - Over 74.4% of automotive dealers faced varying degrees of price inversion, with 43.6% experiencing price inversions exceeding 15% [3] - Price inversions have severely impacted dealers' cash flow, particularly for traditional fuel brand dealers, leading to significant losses in new car sales [3] Group 3: Profitability Challenges - The proportion of automotive dealers reporting losses rose to 52.6% in the first half of 2025, with only 29.9% reporting profits [4] - The gross profit contributions from new car sales, after-sales, and financial insurance were -22.3%, 63.8%, and 36.2% respectively, indicating a continued loss in new car sales [4] - Independent brand dealers in the new energy sector fared better than traditional fuel brand dealers, with 42.9% reporting profits compared to 25.6% for traditional brands [4] Group 4: Dealer Satisfaction - Overall satisfaction among automotive dealers has declined, with a score of 64.7, reflecting increased operational pressures [5] - Dealers reported dissatisfaction with new car and used car business performance due to high target expectations and insufficient support from manufacturers [5] - After-sales service satisfaction has also decreased, attributed to declining service visits and increasing parts pricing [5]

Company Situation - The company announced a one-time non-cash impairment of approximately 3.5 billion yuan related to underperforming 4S stores, goodwill, intangible assets from dealership agreements, and long-term assets, indicating no significant ongoing impairment risks in the future [1] - This substantial impairment is expected to help the company optimize asset quality and eliminate future risks associated with goodwill and intangible asset impairments, laying a foundation for focusing on the transition to new energy, improving operational efficiency, and enhancing profit quality [1] - The company currently has sufficient cash on hand, indicating strong risk resistance and a solid foundation for sustainable development, although new car sales are significantly impacted by declining demand in the luxury car market [1] Shareholder Returns - The company places a high emphasis on shareholder returns, having repurchased 32.06 million shares for approximately 78 million HKD, representing about 1.7% of total share capital, with an average repurchase price of 2.41 HKD [2] - Since 2021, the company has consistently increased its dividend payout ratio, with a cash dividend of 240 million yuan expected in 2024, achieving a payout ratio of around 120% [2] - The company plans to maintain mid-term dividends at no less than the same period in 2024, indicating a commitment to enhancing shareholder returns through dividends and share buybacks [2] Industry Outlook - The company is actively advancing its transition to new energy, with 35 new energy brand outlets expected by the end of 2024, accounting for 16% of total outlets, and has established partnerships with several new energy brands [2] - In the first half of 2025, the company secured 30 new energy brand authorizations and opened 7 new outlets, with independent new energy vehicle sales and maintenance revenue increasing by approximately 49% and 76% year-on-year, respectively [2] - The ongoing trend of dealership exits in the industry is expected to benefit leading dealers by increasing market concentration and providing access to more resources from vehicle manufacturers and after-sales customers [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains a rating of outperforming the industry, although profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted to -3.242 billion yuan and 231 million yuan, respectively, due to impairment impacts and weak luxury car demand [3] - Given the company's structural transition towards new energy brands, profitability is expected to take time to improve, and with sufficient impairment provisions for goodwill and intangible assets, a P/B valuation approach is adopted [3] - The current stock price corresponds to 0.3x the estimated P/B for 2025, with a target price of 3.0 HKD, reflecting a 44% upside potential based on a P/B of 0.54x for 2025 [3]

Core Viewpoint - Zhongsheng Holdings (00881) has seen a stock price increase of over 3%, currently at 13.49 HKD, with a trading volume of 42.95 million HKD. The rise is attributed to recent government policies aimed at curbing irrational competition in the automotive industry, particularly in the context of electric vehicles [1]. Group 1: Government Policies - The Chinese government has introduced a series of "anti-involution" policies to address overcapacity and worsening price competition in the electric vehicle sector [1]. - These measures, along with structural reforms at the corporate level, are expected to lead to a turning point in the industry by 2026 [1]. Group 2: Analyst Insights - Morgan Stanley has raised the target price for Zhongsheng Holdings to 20 HKD, citing benefits from the optimization of its dealership network [1]. - UBS noted that the recent rise in automotive dealership stock prices is linked to the anti-involution policies, which are anticipated to improve new car sales profit margins [1]. - The market is speculating on industry consolidation due to news of dealership closures, and investors are taking the opportunity to buy undervalued stocks [1].

小摩发布研报称，中国政府近期针对新能源汽车等面临产能过剩与价格竞争恶化的产业，推出一系 列"反内卷"政策以遏制非理性竞争。该行认为，政府反内卷举措与企业层面的结构性改革将推动产业于 2026年迎来转机。由于受惠于经销网络优化，该行上调公司目标价至20港元。 瑞银此前指出，汽车经销商近期股价走高，相信是来自于反内卷政策，市场憧憬新车销售利润率改善； 一些经销商结业的新闻令市场揣测行业未来迎来整合；以及投资者趁低吸纳较低估值股份。憧憬若政策 有效遏制行业价格战，瑞银相信经销商盈利能力或显著改善。 智通财经APP获悉，中升控股(00881)涨超3%，截至发稿，涨3.22%，报13.49港元，成交额4295.5万港 元。 ...

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market indices showed a recovery in the afternoon, with the Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index down by 0.15% and 0.34% respectively, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.35% after a larger drop of 2% during the day [1][2] - Despite the index adjustments, southbound funds significantly net bought over 10 billion HKD in Hong Kong stocks [1] Sector Performance - Large tech stocks saw a narrowing of losses in the afternoon, with Alibaba slightly turning positive, while Tencent, JD.com, Meituan, and Kuaishou experienced declines within 1%. Xiaomi continued to decline by 2.6% [2] - Biopharmaceutical stocks performed strongly, particularly in the innovative drug sector, with WuXi AppTec rising over 11%, and both CSPC Pharmaceutical and Luye Pharma increasing by over 8% [2] - The "anti-involution" sectors, including steel and photovoltaic stocks, showed a notable recovery, while oil, gambling, and semiconductor stocks mostly rose [2] - The three-child policy subsidy of 3600 yuan led to a mixed performance in related stocks, with some experiencing declines [2][6] Banking Sector - The banking sector faced declines, with several banks such as Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank and China Everbright Bank dropping over 3% [4][5] - Major banks like Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Construction Bank, and Agricultural Bank of China also saw declines [4] Biopharmaceutical Sector - WuXi AppTec reported a strong performance with a revenue of 20.8 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 20.64%, and a net profit surge of 101.92% [8] - The company expects continued double-digit growth in operating revenue, adjusting its growth forecast from 10-15% to 13-17% [8] Automotive Sector - Automotive dealership stocks rose against the trend, with Guanzhong Holdings increasing over 9% and Zhongsheng Holdings up over 6% [9][10] - UBS reported that the rebound in stock prices for Zhongsheng and Yongda Automotive is attributed to expectations of improved profit margins from new car sales due to government policies [10] Steel Sector - Steel stocks experienced gains, with Maanshan Iron & Steel rising over 8% and several other companies like Ansteel and Asia Pacific Resources also seeing increases [11][12] Apple-Related Stocks - Apple-related stocks were active, with AAC Technologies rising over 3% and other companies like GoerTek and BYD Electronics also showing gains [13] Future Outlook - Haitong Securities expressed optimism about the Hong Kong stock market, particularly in the technology sector, suggesting a focus on sectors with improving conditions and low valuations [15]

Group 1: Baby and Childcare Sector - The baby and childcare concept stocks mostly opened higher, with notable increases in shares of companies such as Jinxin Reproductive Medicine (1951.HK) up 8.93%, H&H International Holdings (1112.HK) up 7.33%, and China Feihe (6186.HK) up 5.12% following the announcement of a new childcare subsidy policy [1] - The new policy, effective from January 1, 2025, provides an annual subsidy of 3,600 yuan for each child until they reach three years old, which is expected to boost the sector [1] Group 2: Pharmaceutical Sector - WuXi AppTec (2359.HK) opened over 4% higher after reporting a revenue of 20.799 billion yuan for the six months ending June 30, 2025, a year-on-year increase of 20.6%, with a net profit of 8.287 billion yuan, up 95.5% [1] - Fosun Pharma (2196.HK) saw a 1.37% increase after signing a licensing agreement for AR1001, aimed at treating Alzheimer's disease and other neurological disorders [2] - Deqi Pharmaceutical (6996.HK) rose 4.70% after receiving approval for a new indication of its drug, Xivio, for treating multiple myeloma [2] - Kangzheng Pharmaceutical (0867.HK) increased over 2% after announcing the acceptance of its new drug application for ZUNVEYL, aimed at treating Alzheimer's symptoms [4] - BeiGene (6160.HK) rose over 3% following a positive recommendation from the European Medicines Agency for its drug, Tislelizumab, for non-small cell lung cancer [4] Group 3: Automotive Sector - Hong Kong automotive dealer stocks rose, with Zhongsheng Holdings (0881.HK) up nearly 6% and Yongda Automotive (3669.HK) up over 4%, driven by expectations of improved profit margins from new car sales due to government policies [2] - UBS reported that Zhongsheng and Yongda's stock prices rebounded approximately 20% and 5% respectively, as the market anticipates industry consolidation and improved profitability [2] Group 4: Beverage Sector - Hong Kong Brewery (0236.HK) surged 26% after reporting a revenue of approximately 390 million HKD for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3.22%, with a net profit of 49.644 million HKD, up 31.97% [3] Group 5: Securities Sector - Chinese brokerage stocks collectively declined, with Shenwan Hongyuan (6806.HK) down nearly 5%, amid tightening regulatory scrutiny in the securities industry, which has seen over 30 fines issued recently [3]