证券研究报告|行业周报 2025 年 07 月 23 日 电力及公用事业 行业周报（7.14-7.20）：雅鲁藏布江下游水电工程开工，6 月全国 用电量同比+5.4% | 股票 | 股票 | 投资 | EPS （元） | | PE | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 代码 | 名称 | 评级 | 2025E | 2026E | 2025E | 2026E | | 001289.SZ | 龙源电力 | 增持 | 0.79 | 0.88 | 21.49 | 19.3 | | 600163.SH | 中闽能源 | 增持 | 0.4 | 0.42 | 13.58 | 12.93 | | 600674.SH | 川投能源 | 增持 | 1.05 | 1.13 | 15.45 | 14.35 | | 600795.SH | 国电电力 | 买入 | 0.42 | 0.49 | 11.36 | 9.73 | 资料来源：公司财报，长城证券产业金融研究院 板块市场表现： （1）行业估值：本周（2025.7.18）申万公用事业行业指数 PE（TTM） 为 17.2 倍 ...

港股风电股多数上涨，东方电气(01072.HK)涨超 8%，龙源电力(00916.HK)涨超3%，中国高速传动 (00658.HK)涨超1%。 ...

证券研究报告|公司深度报告 2025 年 07 月 21 日 龙源电力（001289.SZ） 存量焕新夯实基本盘，增量进击开启新增长 | 财务指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 38,052 | 37,070 | 35,731 | 38,785 | 41,508 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | -4.5 | -2.6 | -3.6 | 8.5 | 7.0 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 6,303 | 6,345 | 6,627 | 7,351 | 7,946 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | 23.3 | 0.7 | 4.4 | 10.9 | 8.1 | | ROE（%） | 8.1 | 9.6 | 8.8 | 9.2 | 9.2 | | EPS 最新摊薄（元） | 0.75 | 0.76 | 0.79 | 0.88 | 0.95 | | P/E（倍） | 21.7 | 21.6 | 20.6 | 18.6 | 17.2 | | P/B（倍） | ...

证券研究报告 公用事业 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 07 月 20 日 查浩 SAC：S1350524060004 zhahao@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 戴映炘 SAC：S1350524080002 daiyingxin@huayuanstock.com 邓思平 SAC：S1350524070003 dengsiping@huayuanstock.com 邱达治 SAC：S1350525050001 qiudazhi@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 重视港股电力设备核心资产 6 月能源数据分析 风电设备：（1）风机快速大型化导致新产品的推出周期大幅变短，而大型电力设备的新产品利润率此时 通常会走低（前期更注重份额且成本不易控制）；（2）整机环节集中度持续走高且无新竞争者进入足以 证明风电整机壁垒够高。当前风机大型化速度显著放缓，因此我们看好风电整机利润改善。 投资分析意见：重视港股电力设备核心资产投资机会，煤电核准强度超出预期，抽蓄建设维持高位，风 电需求稳 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [11] Core Insights - The increase in renewable energy consumption responsibility weight is expected to generate an additional demand of approximately 510 billion kilowatt-hours of new energy by 2025 [2][6][19] - The transition of the aluminum electrolysis industry from monitoring to assessment will significantly boost the demand for non-hydropower green certificates, estimated at around 150 million certificates [7][26] - The inclusion of four major energy-consuming industries (steel, cement, polysilicon, and data centers) into monitoring is projected to create a potential demand for approximately 800 million non-hydropower green certificates [8][29] Summary by Sections Renewable Energy Consumption Responsibility Weight - The responsibility weight for renewable energy consumption will significantly increase in 2025, with unfulfilled portions not carried over to the next year. The new policy mandates that the responsibility weight must be completed within the year [6][17] - The "Three North" regions have a higher responsibility weight, with provinces like Inner Mongolia, Gansu, Jilin, Heilongjiang, and Qinghai set at 30%, while regions like Shanghai and Guangdong remain below 15% [18] Electrolytic Aluminum Green Power Consumption - The green power consumption ratio for the electrolytic aluminum industry will shift from monitoring to assessment in 2025, leading to a significant increase in demand for non-hydropower green certificates [7][26] - The estimated demand for non-hydropower green certificates from the electrolytic aluminum sector is about 150 million certificates due to the new assessment requirements [26] Expansion of Monitoring to Other Industries - The addition of steel, cement, polysilicon, and data centers into the monitoring framework is expected to create a substantial potential demand for green certificates, estimated at around 800 million certificates [8][29] - The projected total demand from these sectors could reach approximately 980 billion kilowatt-hours of new energy, accounting for about 53% of the 2024 new energy volume [34] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The demand side is expected to expand significantly due to the assessment of the electrolytic aluminum industry and the inclusion of new energy-consuming sectors, while the supply side will see a reduction in the issuance of green certificates due to policy changes [8][34] - The overall market dynamics are anticipated to shift from a surplus supply to a more balanced state, providing long-term support for green certificate prices [8][34]

行情回顾： ◼ 本周（7.07-7.11）上证综指上涨 1.09%，创业板指上涨 2.36%。碳中和板块上涨 3.52%，环保板块上涨 3.07%， 公用事业板块上涨 1.28%，煤炭板块下跌 0.82%。 每周专题： 行业要闻： 投资建议： ◼ 火电板块：我们建议关注发电资产主要布局在电力供需偏紧、发电侧竞争格局较好地区的火电企业，如皖能电力、 华电国际。水电：建议关注水电运营商龙头长江电力。新能源发电：建议关注新能源龙头龙源电力（H）。核电： 建议关注电价市场化占比提升背景下，核电龙头企业中国核电。 风险提示： 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 ◼ 英国容量市场拍卖如何确定目标容量？为了平衡经济性和可靠性目标，英国容量市场根据电力用户的失负荷价 值和系统可靠性供应的新建机组成本计算系统可靠性目标。电力调度机构根据系统可靠性目标，采用 Least Worst Regret 模型计算出拍卖目标容量，并基于此构建容量需求曲线。 ◼ 参与拍卖的"有效容量"是如何确定的？所谓有效容量，即根据各类发电技术的具体可用性对供电能力进行调 整后的装机容量。英国容量市场采用增量等效可靠容量法（Incremental Equiva ...

证券代码：001289 证券简称：龙源电力 公告编号：2025-043 龙源电力集团股份有限公司 关于公司 2025 年第五期超短期融资券发行的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容真实、准确和完整，没有虚假记载、误导 性陈述或者重大遗漏。 龙源电力集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于 2025 年 6 月 17 日召开 的 2024 年度股东大会审议通过了《关于龙源电力集团股份有限公司在境内申请 注册及发行债务融资工具一般性授权的议案》，批准并同意授权董事会决定及处 理公司以一次性或分期的形式通过中国证监会、深圳证券交易所、国家发展改革 委、中国保险资产管理业协会等机构审批、注册、登记、发行或设立债务融资工 具，新增规模合计不超过人民币 500 亿元（含 500 亿元）；以统一注册或分品种 注册的形式向中国银行间市场交易商协会注册债务融资工具，可采取分期方式发 行，新增规模合计不超过人民币 800 亿元（含 800 亿元）；股东大会同意董事会 在授权范围内转授权公司管理层处理相关事宜。 董 事 会 2025 年 7 月 11 日 2 | 超短期融资券全称 | 龙源电力集团股份有限公司 | | | 2 ...

国家能源集团消息，近日， 龙源电力广西公司北流500兆瓦/1000兆瓦时共享储能电站取得北流市发展 和改革局备案批复。该储能电站位于广西玉林北流市，规划装机容量500兆瓦/1000兆瓦时，占地面积约 100亩，拟采用磷酸铁锂电池，共配置100套储能单元，每套储能单元由1套 电池单元和1套PCS升压单 元组成。项目建成后，单次充电可储存清洁电力100万千瓦时，年调用完全充放电次数将不低于250次， 年可充放电量约2.5亿千瓦时，对比同等发电量的火电厂，每年可减少标准煤约7.5万吨，减少二氧化碳 排放量约19.5万吨。 ...

[Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 7 月 7 日 [T分析师： able_Author 赵晓闯] 执业证书号：S1030511010004 电话：0755-83199599 邮箱：zhaoxc@csco.com.cn 分析师：杨贵洲 执业证书号：S1030524060001 装备制造 邮箱：donglyn@csco.com.cn 公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 证券研究报告 工程机械出口持续增长 [Table_ReportType]装备制造行业周报（7 月第 1 周） 电话：0755-83199599 邮箱：yanggz1@csco.com.cn 研究助理：董李延楠 电话：0755-83199599 [Table_Title] [Table_Report] [Table_BaseData] 行业数据 计算机 2019 年 Q3 综合毛利率（%） 9.7 综合净利率（%） 6.9 行业 ROE（%） 25.6 行业 ROA（%） 5.2 利润增长率（%） 4.21 资产负债率（%） 149 期间费用率（%） 4.54 存货周转率（%） 42.56 数据来源：聚源资讯 1) 中国工程机械 5 月份 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the power industry [11] Core Insights - The performance outlook for thermal power remains positive despite a decline in electricity prices and generation in Q2, driven by a significant decrease in coal prices [2][6] - Hydropower generation faces pressure due to high base effects and reduced rainfall, but some companies may achieve stable growth through optimized reservoir management [7][28] - Nuclear power generation continues to grow, but performance may vary by region due to differing impacts from market electricity prices [7][29] - Renewable energy generation (wind and solar) shows steady growth, but performance disparities exist across regions, influenced by local utilization hours [8][33] Summary by Sections Thermal Power - Key factors affecting thermal power profitability include coal prices, electricity prices, and generation volume. In Q2, coal prices decreased significantly, with the Qinhuangdao Q5500 coal price averaging 631.61 yuan/ton, down 216.85 yuan/ton year-on-year [20][21] - The overall electricity price across regions has declined, but northern regions like Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang show relatively strong performance [6][17] - Despite a year-on-year decline in thermal power generation hours and prices, the significant drop in coal prices is expected to stabilize thermal power operations, particularly in northern and eastern regions [26][21] Hydropower - Hydropower generation saw a year-on-year decline of 11.02% in April-May due to high base effects and less rainfall [28][31] - Major hydropower companies with better asset quality may still achieve stable growth through effective water management strategies [28] Nuclear Power - Nuclear power generation increased by 9.57% year-on-year in April-May, supported by a larger installed capacity and fewer maintenance days [29][31] - The impact of market electricity price fluctuations varies, with companies like China Nuclear Power being less affected compared to others [29] Renewable Energy - Wind and solar generation increased by 11.87% and 11.68% year-on-year, respectively, but utilization hours have decreased [33][36] - Regional disparities in performance are evident, with eastern and central provinces showing improved wind utilization hours, while coastal provinces like Guangdong and Fujian experienced significant declines [33][39] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on quality thermal power operators such as Huadian International, Huaneng International, and China Power, as well as major hydropower companies like Yangtze Power and Guotou Power [9][44] - For renewable energy, companies with balanced national layouts like Longyuan Power and China Nuclear Power are expected to perform well [9][44]