交银国际研究 公司更新 | 新能源 收盘价 | | 目标价 | | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 4 月 1 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 港元 | 6.23 | 港元 | 8.00 | +28.4% | | | 龙源电力 (916 HK) | | | | | | 2024 年风电电价优于预期，订出 3 年派息政策应受投资者欢迎 股份资料 | 52周高位 (港元) | 8.29 | | --- | --- | | 52周低位 (港元) | 5.31 | | 市值 (百万港元) | 20,670.39 | | 日均成交量 (百万) | 69.63 | | 年初至今变化 (%) | (3.26) | | 200天平均价 (港元) | 6.34 | | 资料来源 : FactSet | | 郑民康 个股评级 买入 1 年股价表现 资料来源 : FactSet 4/24 8/24 12/24 -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 916 HK 恒生指数 wallace.cheng@bocomgroup.com (852) 3766 18 ...

查浩 SAC：S1350524060004 zhahao@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 邹佩轩 SAC：S1350524070004 zoupeixuan01@huayuanstock.com 联系人 证券研究报告 公用事业 | 电力 港股|公司点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 04 月 01 日 市场表现： | 基本数据 | 2025 | 年 | 03 | 月 28 | 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港元） | | | | 5.98 | | | 一年内最高/最低（港 | | | | 8.30/5.12 | | | 元） | | | | | | | 总市值（百万港元） | | | | 49,991.70 | | | 流通市值（百万港元） | | | | 19,840.93 | | | 资产负债率（%） | | | | 66.66 | | | 资料来源：聚源数据 | | | | | | 龙源电力(00916.HK) 投资评级 ...

Financial Performance - For the year ending December 31, 2024, total revenue was RMB 37.07 billion, a decrease of 2.6% compared to the previous year[4] - For the same period, profit before tax was RMB 10.32 billion, an increase of 21.6% year-on-year, with RMB 9.36 billion from continuing operations[4] - Net profit attributable to equity holders was RMB 6.43 billion, reflecting a growth of 0.2% compared to the previous year[4] - Earnings per share for the year was RMB 0.7630, an increase of RMB 0.0166 from the previous year[4] - Operating profit from continuing operations was RMB 12.61 billion, up from RMB 11.57 billion in the previous year[5] - The company reported a net profit from non-continuing operations of RMB 8.37 billion, compared to RMB 6.96 billion in the previous year[7] - Total comprehensive income for the year was RMB 8.42 billion, an increase from RMB 6.99 billion in the previous year[7] - The company’s financial expenses decreased to RMB 3.42 billion from RMB 3.46 billion year-on-year[5] - The company’s depreciation and amortization expenses increased to RMB 11.56 billion from RMB 10.62 billion in the previous year[5] Assets and Liabilities - Non-current assets increased from RMB 192,849,985 thousand in 2023 to RMB 207,077,898 thousand in 2024, representing an increase of approximately 7.3%[8] - Current assets rose from RMB 50,289,764 thousand in 2023 to RMB 45,412,544 thousand in 2024, indicating a decrease of about 10%[8] - Total liabilities increased from RMB 153,818,384 thousand in 2023 to RMB 171,566,267 thousand in 2024, reflecting a growth of approximately 11.5%[9] - The net current liabilities amounted to RMB 28,682,624 thousand as of December 31, 2024, compared to RMB 27,350,686 thousand in 2023, showing an increase of about 4.8%[9] - Total equity increased from RMB 84,444,145 thousand in 2023 to RMB 85,801,395 thousand in 2024, a growth of approximately 1.6%[10] - The company reported a significant increase in borrowings, with current borrowings rising from RMB 49,781,172 thousand in 2023 to RMB 55,637,043 thousand in 2024, an increase of about 11.5%[9] - The company’s total assets decreased from RMB 178,395,274 thousand in 2023 to RMB 165,499,299 thousand in 2024, indicating a decline of approximately 7.2%[9] - The company’s goodwill decreased from RMB 195,617 thousand in 2023 to RMB 145,668 thousand in 2024, a decline of about 25.5%[8] Operational Focus and Strategy - The company plans to continue focusing on expanding its market presence and enhancing operational efficiency in the upcoming year[6] - The company’s total revenue from wind and photovoltaic power generation and sales remains a key focus area for future growth[11] - The group plans to sell its thermal power segment in 2024, which will be classified as a discontinued operation[30] - The wind power segment is focused on constructing, managing, and operating wind power plants, contributing to the group's revenue generation[30] - The photovoltaic power segment is also involved in constructing and managing solar power plants, further diversifying the group's energy portfolio[30] - The group has significant investments in joint ventures and associates, totaling RMB 1,349,490,000, which are not included in the segment assets[27] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from external customers for electricity sales reached RMB 30,968,914,000, an increase from RMB 29,191,378,000 in the previous year, representing a growth of approximately 6.1%[35] - The wind power segment accounted for 91.4% of total revenue in 2024, generating RMB 28.666 billion, while the solar segment contributed 7.9% with RMB 2.441 billion, up from 5.4% in 2023[130] - Non-continuing operations generated revenue of RMB 5,699,278 thousand, down 32.3% from RMB 8,417,522 thousand in 2023[43] Cash Flow and Investments - The net cash generated from operating activities was RMB 427,355,000, compared to RMB 633,896,000 in 2023, indicating a decrease of approximately 32.5%[26] - The net cash used in investing activities was RMB 741,858,000, while the previous year showed a cash outflow of RMB 512,042,000, reflecting a significant increase in investment[26] - The company’s cash and cash equivalents, including restricted deposits, amounted to RMB 32.83 billion, down from RMB 51.57 billion in 2023, a decrease of 36.4%[165] - The company did not make any significant investments in 2024[174] Market and Regulatory Environment - The national renewable energy consumption target is set to exceed 1.1 billion tons of standard coal by 2025, with a goal of reaching 1.5 billion tons by 2030[90] - The National Energy Administration issued guidelines to enhance the green electricity trading mechanism, aiming to expand the scale of green electricity transactions and address cross-regional trading challenges[91] - The establishment of renewable energy consumption responsibility weights will promote investment in renewable energy projects and reduce reliance on fossil fuels[97] - The implementation of carbon emissions trading regulations will provide a clear legal framework for the operation of the national carbon emissions trading market starting May 1, 2024[98] Future Outlook and Goals - The group plans to enhance cost reduction and efficiency improvement measures in response to downward pressure on electricity prices[189] - The group aims to strengthen communication with government departments and optimize local grid structures to expand new energy consumption channels[191] - The group plans to start new renewable energy projects with a capacity of 5.5 million kilowatts and put into operation 5 million kilowatts by 2025, aiming to double the installed capacity during the 14th Five-Year Plan period[197] - The group is focusing on energy storage projects and hydrogen ammonia projects to enhance energy efficiency and sustainability[108] Safety and Risk Management - The group implemented a strategy focusing on safety management and risk prevention, enhancing operational efficiency and safety standards[103] - The company emphasizes the importance of safety management and risk control, implementing comprehensive safety management systems and enhancing emergency response capabilities[199] - Aging equipment poses safety risks, prompting the group to enhance monitoring and maintenance practices to ensure operational reliability[192] International Expansion - The group focused on differentiated strategies for international market expansion, particularly in Belt and Road Initiative countries[119] - The international renewable energy cooperation is strengthening, with projects under the Belt and Road Initiative creating favorable conditions for domestic companies to expand globally[195]

Investment Rating - Investment rating: Not available [3] Core Views - The report indicates that Longyuan Power has shown marginal improvement in its Q3 2024 performance, with a focus on increasing high-quality renewable energy assets while disposing of thermal power assets. The company has added 2.7 GW of new renewable capacity and disposed of 1.2 GW of thermal capacity year-to-date. It plans to acquire 2 GW of high-quality renewable assets from its controlling shareholder, China Energy Group, which is expected to enhance its valuation [9][10]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, Longyuan Power reported a revenue decrease of 9.8% year-on-year to RMB 7.47 billion, while operating profit increased by 13.3% to RMB 2.89 billion, and net profit surged by 29.9% to RMB 1.65 billion. For the first three quarters, revenue decreased by 6.4% to RMB 26.35 billion, operating profit fell by 10% to RMB 10.04 billion, and net profit decreased by 11.4% to RMB 5.67 billion. The Q3 net profit growth indicates a significant improvement compared to the first half of the year [10]. Operational Highlights - As of September 30, 2024, Longyuan Power's total installed capacity was 37 GW, with wind power accounting for 28.4 GW, thermal power at 660 MW, and other renewable sources at 8 GW. The company has actively increased its renewable capacity while reducing thermal power assets, with a focus on wind and solar projects [10]. Acquisition Plans - Longyuan Power announced plans to acquire renewable power generation assets from China Energy Group, including eight companies with a total installed capacity of 2.03 GW, of which 1.45 GW is operational and 0.58 GW is under construction. The acquisition price is set at RMB 1.69 billion, reflecting the company's strategy to integrate high-quality renewable assets [10]. Market Valuation - The current valuation for Longyuan Power is approximately 7 times the expected PE for 2025. The report suggests that the company is well-positioned to capitalize on the wind power construction window and has expectations for asset injections from its controlling shareholder, indicating potential for valuation enhancement [10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 6.92 HKD, maintained from previous assessments [2]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 26.35 billion HKD for the first three quarters of 2024, a decrease of 6.37% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.668 billion HKD, down 11.38% year-on-year [2]. - The company has completed the transfer of equity in Jiangyin Sulong Thermal Power Co., resulting in a reduction of controlled installed capacity by 1.24 GW, while new units have been put into operation, leading to a total controlled installed capacity of 37.01 GW as of the end of September [2]. - The company plans to inject 4 GW of new energy assets, with an initial batch of approximately 2 GW, as part of a strategy to enhance its operational capacity and market position [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters, the company achieved a revenue of 26.35 billion HKD, with the wind power segment generating 19.116 billion HKD (down 8.35%), thermal power at 5.439 billion HKD (down 12.48%), and solar power at 1.568 billion HKD (up 65.51%) [2]. - The net profit for Q3 alone was 1.647 billion HKD, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 29.89%, attributed to new unit contributions and equity disposal gains [2]. Operational Highlights - The company’s wind power utilization hours decreased by 108 hours year-on-year to 1,607 hours, with wind power generation at 43.9 billion kWh, a slight decline of 1.82% [2]. - Solar and other renewable energy generation saw a significant increase of 82.76%, reaching 5.8 billion kWh [2]. Future Outlook - The company forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders of 6.6 billion, 7.5 billion, and 8.2 billion HKD for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 9, 8, and 7 times [2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The company's performance in Q3 exceeded expectations, driven by improved electricity generation due to favorable wind conditions, with a significant recovery anticipated for the full year if the trend continues [1][3] - The company has successfully divested from thermal power assets, with investment income for the first three quarters reaching 674 million, a year-on-year increase of 6316.47%, primarily from the disposal of equity in Jiangyin Sulong Thermal Power [3] - The company is positioned as a leader in the green energy sector, with a strong focus on wind and solar power, and is expected to benefit from the injection of additional renewable energy assets from its controlling shareholder [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenue of 26.35 billion, a year-on-year decline of 6.39%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.475 billion, down 10.61% [1] - In Q3 alone, revenue was 7.467 billion, a decrease of 9.87%, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 41.58% to 1.648 billion [1] - The company's electricity generation in Q3 increased by 6.39% year-on-year, showing a significant recovery compared to Q2 [1] Market Position and Future Outlook - The company has a dominant position in wind power, with a total installed capacity of 28.38 GW in wind energy and 7.97 GW in other renewable sources as of September 2024 [3] - The controlling shareholder has approximately 40 GW of unlisted renewable energy assets, which are expected to be injected into the company, enhancing its market position [3] - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 5.934 billion, 6.853 billion, and 7.310 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 9, 8, and 7 [3][5]

Revenue and Profit - The group's revenue for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, was RMB 26.35 billion, a decrease of 6.37% compared to the same period last year[2]. - The net profit attributable to equity holders of the company was RMB 5.67 billion, representing a decline of 11.38% year-on-year[2][5]. - The group’s operating profit before tax was RMB 7.77 billion, down from RMB 8.67 billion in the previous year[5]. Installed Capacity - The total installed capacity of the group as of September 30, 2024, was 37,010.40 MW, with wind power capacity at 28,380.64 MW[3][8]. - The total installed capacity as of September 30, 2024, reached 37,010.40 GW, an increase of 12.80% compared to 32,809.50 GW in 2023[9]. - The group’s total installed capacity for photovoltaic projects included 567.70 MW from acquired projects[3]. - The installed capacity for other renewable energy sources increased significantly by 91.45%, from 4,162.81 GW in 2023 to 7,969.76 GW in 2024[9]. - The installed capacity in Guangxi province increased by 7.54%, from 991.35 GW in 2023 to 1,066.10 GW in 2024[9]. Power Generation - The group completed a total electricity generation of 56,846,592 MWh, an increase of 2.42% year-on-year, with renewable energy generation rising by 82.76%[4]. - The total power generation for the nine months ending September 30, 2024, was 56,846,592 MWh, reflecting a 2.42% increase from 55,504,550 MWh in 2023[11]. - The wind power generation decreased by 1.82%, from 44,673,091 MWh in 2023 to 43,861,535 MWh in 2024[10]. - The thermal power generation decreased by 6.32%, from 7,645,833 MWh in 2023 to 7,162,990 MWh in 2024[11]. - The power generation in Guizhou province saw a significant increase of 18.19%, from 1,224,043 MWh in 2023 to 1,446,750 MWh in 2024[10]. - The company reported a decrease in power generation in several regions, including Inner Mongolia (-12.13%) and Hebei (-15.05%) compared to the previous year[10]. Wind and Photovoltaic Segments - The wind power segment generated revenue of RMB 19.12 billion, down 8.35% year-on-year, while the photovoltaic segment saw revenue growth of 65.51% to RMB 1.57 billion[2][6]. - The average utilization hours for wind power decreased by 108 hours to 1,607 hours, primarily due to lower wind speeds[4]. Equity Transfer and Future Outlook - The group signed a share transfer agreement for the sale of 27% equity in Jiangyin Sulong Thermal Power Co., Ltd. for RMB 1.32 billion, which was included in other income[7]. - The company completed the equity transfer of Jiangyin Sulong, and its power generation will no longer be included from September 2024[12]. - Future outlook includes continued focus on expanding renewable energy capacity and improving operational efficiency[11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company is set to enhance its performance through the acquisition of high-quality assets, with a focus on wind and solar energy projects, which are expected to significantly contribute to its profitability in the future [2] - The acquisition involves cash purchases of controlling stakes in eight renewable energy companies, with a total installed capacity of 2.0329 million kilowatts, at a transaction price of 1.686 billion yuan [1][2] - The expected increase in net profit for the company due to the acquisition is approximately 1.46 billion yuan for the year 2024, representing a 3% increase compared to 2023 [2] Summary by Sections Acquisition Details - The company plans to acquire stakes in eight renewable energy companies, with a total installed capacity of 2.0329 million kilowatts, for a price of 1.686 billion yuan [1] - The acquisition is valued at a price-to-book (PB) ratio of approximately 1.13 times, indicating reasonable pricing [1] Financial Performance - As of the first half of 2024, the company has a controlling wind power capacity of 28.35 GW and a photovoltaic capacity of 7.66 GW [2] - The expected net profit from the operational units acquired in the transaction is projected to be 1.41 billion yuan for the first half of 2024 [2] - The company's revenue for 2024 is forecasted to be 40.662 billion yuan, with a net profit of 5.951 billion yuan, reflecting a slight decrease of 4.77% compared to 2023 [3] Market Position and Future Outlook - The company is positioned as a leader in the green energy sector, with significant potential for future asset injections from its controlling shareholder, which holds approximately 40 GW of unlisted renewable energy assets [2] - The recent regulatory changes aimed at optimizing merger and acquisition processes are expected to enhance the company's valuation and market activity [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Longyuan Power (916 HK) with a target price of HKD 8.35, indicating a potential upside of 32.8% from the current price of HKD 6.29 [11]. Core Views - The report anticipates a weaker net profit for the third quarter, projecting a year-on-year decline of 22% to RMB 4.7 billion, which aligns with market expectations [2]. - There was a significant rebound in wind power generation in September, with a year-on-year increase of 29%, primarily due to improved wind speeds in coastal areas [1]. - The overall power generation for the third quarter is expected to rise by 6% year-on-year, driven by a 42% increase in solar power generation, while thermal power generation is projected to decline by 14% due to project sales [1][2]. - The report highlights that operational improvements and progress in acquisitions are key factors for valuation enhancement, with an upward adjustment of the valuation standard to 10.5 times the 2025 earnings [2]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2023, the expected revenue is RMB 37.638 billion, a decrease of 5.6% year-on-year, while net profit is projected at RMB 6.355 billion, reflecting a 26.4% increase [3][12]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at RMB 0.65, down 11.8% year-on-year, with a forecasted recovery in subsequent years, expecting EPS to rise to RMB 0.97 by 2026 [3][12]. - The report projects a gradual increase in installed capacity, with wind power expected to reach 30,754 MW by 2024 and 41,254 MW by 2026 [7][12]. - The report also notes a decline in the operating profit margin by approximately 6 percentage points due to falling on-grid electricity prices for wind and solar [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Longyuan Power (0916.HK) with a target price of HKD 10, representing a potential upside of 46% from the current price of HKD 6.84 [2][7]. Core Insights - The recent policy from the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) regarding mergers and acquisitions is expected to accelerate the restructuring of state-owned power enterprises, which will benefit Longyuan Power as it is positioned to receive quality clean energy assets from its parent company, State Energy Investment Group [5][9]. - The negative factors affecting green electricity have been fully reflected in the market, and the recent recovery in market sentiment is likely to support a valuation rebound for the green electricity sector, particularly for state-owned companies like Longyuan Power that have significant price discounts [6][10]. - The financial projections indicate a recovery in revenue and net profit, with expected revenues of RMB 39,286 million in 2024 and RMB 43,768 million in 2025, alongside a net profit of RMB 6,019 million in 2024 and RMB 7,212 million in 2025 [8][14]. Summary by Sections Investment Rating - Buy rating with a target price of HKD 10, indicating a 46% upside potential from the current price [2][7]. Financial Performance - Revenue projections for 2024 and 2025 are RMB 39,286 million and RMB 43,768 million, respectively, with a net profit of RMB 6,019 million in 2024 and RMB 7,212 million in 2025 [8][14]. - The report anticipates a recovery in net profit growth, with a projected increase of 19.8% in 2025 [8][14]. Market Context - The CSRC's new policies are expected to enhance the efficiency of mergers and acquisitions in the power sector, facilitating Longyuan Power's strategic asset injections [5][9]. - The green electricity sector is showing signs of valuation recovery due to improved market conditions and sentiment, which is particularly favorable for Longyuan Power given its current valuation [6][10].