丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨公用事业 [Table_Title] 国际认可加速绿证消费扩容，价改推进重视绿电 长期价值 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 国际绿色电力消费倡议组织（RE100）宣布无条件认可中国绿证，明确企业使用中国绿证不需 要再提供额外证明。标志着我国绿证体系的制度完善与国际互认取得里程碑式突破，助推我国 绿证需求侧加速扩容。长期低位运行的市场需求和绿证价格将得到显著催化，为新能源项目实 现合理收益提供重要支撑。在新能源价格改革持续持续推进的背景下，我们认为各省配套细则 也将承接 136 号文保护存量项目、稳定增量项目收益预期的原则，有助于长远角度新能源发电 的合理健康发展，同时随着绿电消费的加速扩容，绿电公司有望迎来价值重估。 分析师及联系人 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Author] SFC：BQT627 SAC：S0490517080003 SAC：S0490520120001 SAC：S0490520110001 SAC：S0490523080003 张韦华 司旗 宋尚骞 刘亚辉 [T ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 8.14 billion yuan for Q1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.92% in continuing operations, while net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders decreased by 21.82% compared to the previous year, primarily due to poor wind resource levels in certain regions [1][2]. Revenue and Profit Analysis - The decline in absolute revenue is attributed to the divestiture of two thermal power companies; however, after adjustments, revenue showed positive growth, with wind and solar power revenues reaching 7.368 billion yuan and 715 million yuan, respectively, reflecting year-on-year changes of -1.89% and +43.09% [2]. - The company's total power generation for Q1 was 20.3 billion kWh, a decrease of 4.42% year-on-year, but an 8.81% increase when excluding the impact of thermal power [2]. - Wind power generation increased by 4.37%, while solar power generation surged by 55.65% [2]. Installed Capacity and Efficiency - As of Q1 2025, the company had a total installed capacity of 41.15 million kW, with wind power capacity at 30.44 million kW (up 10% year-on-year) and solar power capacity at 10.7 million kW (up 65% year-on-year) [2]. - The increase in wind and solar installed capacity outpaced the growth in power generation, primarily due to a decline in wind resource levels in certain large-capacity areas [2]. - The wind power utilization hours for Q1 were 585 hours, a decrease of 55 hours year-on-year; however, adjusting for this, the wind power generation could have reached 19.45 billion kWh, indicating a year-on-year growth of 14.2% [2]. Future Outlook and Market Conditions - The company has transitioned to a pure renewable energy company, having divested all thermal power assets, and is expected to benefit from the injection of approximately 40 GW of unlisted renewable assets from its parent company [2]. - Recent regulatory changes from the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration are expected to promote rational development in the renewable energy sector, enhancing market competition and addressing renewable energy consumption issues [2]. Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of 6.794 billion yuan, 7.202 billion yuan, and 7.756 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively, with current stock prices corresponding to P/E ratios of 7.5, 7.1, and 6.6 times [2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company's performance has been affected by poor wind conditions, leading to a focus on the construction turning point under comprehensive market entry [5] - The company has transitioned to a pure renewable energy company, with significant potential for future asset injections from its parent group [8] Financial Performance Summary - For Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 8.14 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 0.92%, while net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders was 1.977 billion RMB, a decrease of 21.82% [8] - The decline in revenue is attributed to the divestment of two thermal power companies, with wind and solar revenue showing a year-on-year change of -1.89% and +43.09%, respectively [8] - The company's installed capacity as of Q1 2025 was 41.15 million kW, with wind power capacity at 30.44 million kW (up 10% year-on-year) and solar capacity at 10.70 million kW (up 65% year-on-year) [8] - The forecasted net profit for 2025-2027 is 6.794 billion, 7.202 billion, and 7.756 billion RMB, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 7.5, 7.1, and 6.6 [7][8]

公司是全球最大风电运营商，技改+自建+集团注入多元驱动装机 增长。公司背靠国能集团，是以新能源业务为主的大型综合性发 电集团。集团面临清洁化转型压力，公司承担约 30GW 新能源装机 增量指标。21~24 年已累计新增新能源装机约 17GW，25 年力争投 产 5GW。背靠身为头部发电央企的集团，在融资成本、资金规模等 方面具有优势；并且拥有多能互补的装机结构，在煤炭、化工、 运输等板块布局，业务协同效果好、项目资源获取能力强。公司 24 年取得开发指标 14.7GW，待开发项目资源充足。6M23 能源局发 布文件鼓励并网运行超过 15 年或单机容量小于 1.5MW 的风电场开 展改造升级。早期风电场资源优渥，但受限于设备未能充分利用。 公司是中国最早开发风电的专业化公司，符合技改要求的存量项 目储备充足；过去 3 年资产减值已为"以大代小"腾出 168 万千 瓦空间，25 年计划投产技改项目约 37 万千瓦。 新能源进入全面市场化新阶段，风电资产脱颖而出。"136 号文" 标志着新能源进入全面入市的新阶段，风电出力的非同时性特征 使其现货市场交易电价、利用率情况好于光伏。在市场化交易电 价折价 20%的假设 ...

Group 1 - Insurance capital is increasing equity investments through various methods such as shareholding and long-term stock investment trials due to low interest rates and supportive policies [1][2] - Analysts expect insurance companies to continue increasing equity investments, which will reduce the impact of stock market fluctuations on current profit statements [1][3] - The focus is shifting towards the CSI A500 index, which emphasizes technology and emerging industry leaders [1][3] Group 2 - Recent actions include China Ping An Life Insurance increasing its stake in China Merchants Bank to 12% and Ruizhong Life Insurance raising its stake in Longyuan Power to 16.04% [2] - The long duration of traditional insurance accounts makes them suitable for investing in low-valuation, stable-growth targets, benefiting from capital gains and high dividends in a low-interest environment [2] - Insurance funds are actively seeking long-term stock investment trials to address asset allocation issues and take advantage of relatively low A-share market valuations [4][5] Group 3 - The introduction of policies has expanded investment space for insurance funds, allowing for a reduction in risk capital requirements for equity assets [3][5] - The long-term stock investment trial allows insurance funds to invest through private equity funds, which can stabilize market value accounting and provide more flexible dividend options [4][5] - Regulatory approval for long-term stock investment trials has reached a total of 222 billion yuan, with significant funds expected to flow into the capital market [5]

Major Events - Jin'an Industrial (02292) received a privatization offer from its controlling shareholder at a premium of approximately 30%, with resumption of trading on May 12 [1] - Jingtai Holdings (02228) plans to acquire 90% of Shanghai Siwei Medical for 250 million yuan, aiming to create an AI-enabled remote electrocardiogram diagnosis platform [1] - China Investment and Financing (01226) is in contact with MCHKI to explore several potential corporate activities following unusual stock price movements [1] - Qiu Tai Technology (01478) reported camera module sales of 33.229 million units in April, an increase of 8.4% month-on-month but a decrease of 20.1% year-on-year [1] - Stone Pharmaceutical Group (01093) received approval for clinical trials of SYH2046 in the United States [1] - Fosun Pharma (02196) subsidiary Junji Health obtained FDA approval for drug clinical trials [1] - Rongchang Bio (09995) received approval for the marketing of Aidiqi® for treating HER2-positive advanced breast cancer with liver metastasis in China [1] - Livzon Pharmaceutical (01513) received approval for the marketing of injectable aripiprazole microspheres [1] - GAC Group (02238) reported April automobile production of 108,600 units, a year-on-year decline of 25.74% [2] - China Overseas Development (00688) reported contract property sales of approximately 20.164 billion yuan in April, a year-on-year decrease of 7.5% [2] Share Buybacks/Reductions - China Hongqiao (01378) repurchased 19.667 million shares for 273 million HKD on May 9 [1] - AIA Group (01299) repurchased 1.5 million shares for 92.1915 million HKD on May 9 [1] - Cathay Securities (02611) repurchased 1.6906 million A-shares for 29.3356 million yuan on May 9 [1] - Times Electric (03898) repurchased 610,300 shares for 19.7008 million HKD on May 9 [1] - East Asia Bank (00023) acquired 52.8 million shares from Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation [1] - Shandong Molong (00568) saw shareholder Zhimo Holdings reduce its holdings by 28.81 million H-shares [1] Operating Performance - Longyuan Power (00916) achieved a power generation volume of 6.9064 million MWh in April, a year-on-year increase of 4.85% [2] - New天绿色能源 (00956) reported a power generation volume of 1.4778 million MWh in April, a year-on-year increase of 16.91% [2] - Jianye Real Estate (00832) achieved a total property contract sales amount of 2.71 billion yuan in the first four months, a year-on-year increase of 4.8% [2] - China Overseas Hongyang Group (00081) reported a cumulative contract sales amount of 9.556 billion yuan in the first four months, a year-on-year decrease of 14.1% [2] - Times China Holdings (01233) reported a cumulative contract sales amount of approximately 1.81 billion yuan in the first four months, a year-on-year decrease of 29.87% [2] - Agile Property Holdings (01813) reported a pre-sale amount of 509 million yuan in April, a year-on-year decrease of 47.5% [2] - Greenland Hong Kong (00337) reported contract sales of approximately 880 million yuan in the first four months, a year-on-year decrease of 69.3% [2]

2025年4月发电量数据公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容真实、准确和完整，没有虚假记载、误导 性陈述或者重大遗漏。 龙源电力集团股份有限公司（以下简称"本公司"）2025 年 4 月按合并报 表口径完成发电量 6,906,425 兆瓦时，较 2024 年同期同比增长 4.85%；剔除火电 影响同比增长 17.35%，本月风电发电量同比增长 10.52%，光伏发电量同比增长 76.55%。 证券代码：001289 证券简称：龙源电力 公告编号：2025-032 龙源电力集团股份有限公司 2. 本公告中提供的数字经过整数调整，因此若总计数字与所列各项之和出现尾数差异，皆 因整数调整所致。 以上发电量数据来自本公司内部统计。数据在月度之间可能存在较大差异， 其影响因素包括但不限于天气变化、设备检修、季节性因素和安全检查等。数据 可能与相关期间定期报告披露的数据有差异。投资者应注意不恰当信赖或使用以 上信息可能造成投资风险。 2 龙源电力集团股份有限公司 董 事 会 2025 年 5 月 9 日 3 截至 2025 年 4 月 30 日，本公司 2025 年累计完成发电量 27,192,529 兆瓦时， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price not specified [5] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 8.14 billion yuan for Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.92%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 21.82% to 1.977 billion yuan [1][4] - The company has expanded its installed capacity, with an additional 36.25 MW added in Q1, bringing the total installed capacity to 41.1 GW, which includes 30.4 GW from wind power and 10.7 GW from solar power [2] - Wind power generation saw a slight increase, while solar power generation experienced significant growth, with wind power generation at 17.776 billion kWh (up 4.37%) and solar power generation at 2.509 billion kWh (up 55.65%) [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company's revenue was 8.14 billion yuan, with wind power revenue at 7.368 billion yuan (down 1.89%) and solar power revenue at 715 million yuan (up 43.09%) [4] - Operating expenses increased by 14.13% to 4.81 billion yuan, primarily due to increased depreciation and amortization from new energy installations [4] Installed Capacity and Projects - The company plans to start new renewable energy projects totaling 5.5 GW in 2025, with 5 GW expected to be operational [2] - The total installed capacity as of March 2025 is 41.1 GW, with a breakdown of 30.4 GW from wind, 10.7 GW from solar, and 0.006 GW from other renewable sources [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 7.4 billion, 7.9 billion, and 8.3 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 6.5, 6.1, and 5.8 [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [2][6]. Core Insights - The company's first-quarter profit decreased by 21.9% year-on-year to 1.98 billion RMB, primarily due to increased operating expenses and a reduction in profit from the divestment of its thermal power business [6][7]. - Revenue growth was limited to 0.9% year-on-year, with wind power generation increasing by 4.4%, but offset by a decline in electricity prices [6][8]. - The target price has been adjusted to HKD 7.81, reflecting a 28% potential upside from the current price of HKD 6.10, maintaining a price-to-earnings ratio of 9 times for 2025 [6][15]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 29,631 million RMB in 2023, increasing to 34,510 million RMB in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 10% from 2024 to 2025 [5][18]. - Net profit is expected to grow from 6,157 million RMB in 2023 to 6,758 million RMB in 2025, with a net profit margin of around 19.6% in 2025 [5][19]. - The company plans to increase its installed capacity significantly, with projections of 47,143 MW by 2025, driven by growth in wind and solar energy [9][18]. Operational Performance - The average utilization hours for wind power in the first quarter were 585 hours, a decrease of 55 hours year-on-year, attributed to reduced wind resources in certain regions [6][8]. - The company added 36.25 MW of new installed capacity in the first quarter, with wind and solar contributing 34.7 MW and 1.5 MW, respectively [6][9]. - The overall curtailment rate for the company is approximately 4%, with expectations for a slight acceleration in installation progress leading up to a policy deadline on June 1 [6][9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [2][6]. Core Insights - The company's first-quarter profit decreased by 21.9% year-on-year to 1.98 billion RMB, primarily due to rising operating expenses and a reduction in profit from the divestment of its thermal power business [6][7]. - Revenue growth was limited to 0.9% year-on-year, with wind power generation increasing by 4.4%, but offset by a decline in electricity prices [6][8]. - The target price has been adjusted to HKD 7.81, reflecting a 28% potential upside from the current price of HKD 6.10, maintaining a price-to-earnings ratio of 9 times for 2025 [6][15]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 29,631 million RMB in 2023, increasing to 34,510 million RMB in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 10% [5][18]. - Net profit is expected to grow from 6,157 million RMB in 2023 to 6,758 million RMB in 2025, with a net profit margin of around 19.6% in 2025 [5][19]. - The company plans to increase its installed capacity significantly, with wind power expected to reach 33,409 MW by 2025 [9][18]. Operational Performance - The average utilization hours for wind power in the first quarter were 585 hours, a decrease of 55 hours year-on-year, attributed to reduced wind resources in certain regions [6][8]. - The company added 36.25 MW of new installed capacity in the first quarter, with wind and solar power contributing 34.7 MW and 1.5 MW, respectively [6][9]. - The overall curtailment rate for the company is approximately 4%, with expectations for a slight acceleration in installation progress leading up to a policy deadline [6][9]. Market Position - The company's market capitalization is approximately 20,239.07 million HKD, with a 52-week high of HKD 8.29 and a low of HKD 5.31 [4][6]. - The average daily trading volume is around 76.36 million shares, indicating a relatively active trading environment [4][6]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to complete significant capacity upgrades, with approximately 370 MW of projects anticipated to be finished by 2025 [6][9]. - Adjustments to earnings forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been made, with a downward revision of about 2.4% due to changes in trading prices and operating expenses [6][9].