Core Viewpoint - Harbin Electric is expected to achieve a net profit of approximately RMB 2.65 billion for the fiscal year 2025, a significant increase of 57% compared to the previous year's profit of approximately RMB 1.686 billion, driven by revenue growth and improved product profitability [3] Group 1: Company Performance - The anticipated net profit growth is attributed to an increase in operating revenue and enhanced product profitability [3] - Harbin Electric is recognized as one of the three major traditional power equipment leaders in China, benefiting from rising domestic electricity demand and the emphasis on multi-energy supply in the "14th Five-Year Plan" [3] Group 2: Industry Trends - The demand for traditional power sources such as coal, gas, water, and nuclear energy is expected to increase, highlighting their supply security value [3] - The expansion of data centers is driving overseas electricity shortages, which may lead to increased exports of small gas turbines from Harbin Electric [3] - The AIDC industry is thriving, with the gas turbine sector benefiting from the expansion cycle of computing capital expenditures [3] Group 3: Market Developments - Jerry Holdings recently announced a sales contract for gas turbine generator sets worth RMB 1.265 billion for a U.S. data center [3] - Analysts recommend focusing on segments with customer positioning advantages, rigid supply, and high certainty of volume growth, especially in the context of slow overseas component capacity expansion and backlog orders at main engine manufacturers [3]

Core Viewpoint - Harbin Electric (01133) shares rose over 8%, currently at HKD 20.46, with a trading volume of HKD 143 million, following the announcement of expected net profit for FY2025 of approximately RMB 2.65 billion, a 57% increase from RMB 1.686 billion in the previous year [1] Company Summary - Harbin Electric anticipates a significant increase in net profit for FY2025, driven by growth in operating revenue and improved product profitability [1] - The company is recognized as one of the three major traditional power equipment leaders in China, expected to benefit from rising domestic electricity demand and the emphasis on multi-energy supply in the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1] - The company may also see export opportunities for its small gas turbines due to ongoing overseas electricity shortages, particularly driven by data center demands [1] Industry Summary - The gas turbine industry is expected to benefit significantly from the expansion cycle of computing capital expenditures, as indicated by the recent contract signed by Jerry Holdings for RMB 1.265 billion in gas turbine generator sales for a U.S. data center [1] - Analysts highlight the slow expansion of overseas component production capacity and the backlog of orders at main engine manufacturers, recommending segments with customer positioning advantages and high certainty of volume growth [1]

Core Viewpoint - Harbin Electric (01133) has seen a significant stock increase of over 8%, currently trading at HKD 20.46, with a transaction volume of HKD 143 million. The company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately RMB 2.65 billion for the fiscal year 2025, representing a 57% increase from RMB 1.686 billion in the previous year, driven by revenue growth and improved product profitability [1]. Company Summary - Harbin Electric is expected to benefit from the growth in domestic electricity demand and the emphasis on traditional power supply sources as highlighted in the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1]. - The company is positioned as one of the three major traditional power equipment leaders in China, with potential advantages from the increasing demand for coal, gas, water, and nuclear power [1]. Industry Summary - The data center sector is driving ongoing electricity shortages overseas, which may lead to increased exports of small gas turbines from Harbin Electric [1]. - The gas turbine industry is expected to benefit significantly from the expansion cycle of computing capital expenditures, particularly as overseas component production capacity expands slowly and main engine manufacturers face order backlogs [1]. - Recommendations have been made for companies with customer positioning advantages and high certainty of volume growth in the gas turbine sector [1].

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook on the electricity and natural gas sectors, highlighting stable revenue mechanisms and growth potential in consumption and pricing [1][10]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of a refined capacity pricing mechanism for electricity generation, which aims to stabilize revenue and ensure fair compensation for various power sources [4][6]. - It notes that natural gas consumption is expected to grow, supported by favorable weather conditions and improved economic indicators, despite short-term price fluctuations [10][29]. Summary by Sections 1. Electricity: Improved Capacity Pricing Mechanism - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration have issued a notification to enhance the capacity pricing mechanism for electricity generation, addressing mismatches in supply and demand within the new power system [4]. - The new mechanism aims to ensure that different types of power generation, including coal, gas, and new energy sources, receive fair compensation based on their peak supply capabilities [6][7]. - The report highlights that the refined pricing structure will lead to more predictable revenue for power generation companies, reducing volatility in earnings [7]. 2. Natural Gas: Continued Growth in Consumption - The report indicates that the apparent consumption of natural gas in China is projected to grow by 0.1% in 2025, with December consumption reaching 38.57 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 1.9% [29]. - It notes that the recent cold weather has supported high natural gas prices, with the U.S. Henry Hub spot price at $7.18/mmBtu, while European prices remain elevated due to low inventory levels and geopolitical tensions [10][12]. - The report suggests that the natural gas sector will benefit from a combination of lower costs and improved pricing mechanisms, leading to a recovery in profitability for city gas companies [31]. 3. Investment Recommendations - For coal-fired power, companies like Guodian Power and Inner Mongolia Huadian are recommended due to their stable revenue sources [8]. - Hydropower companies such as Yangtze Power and State Power Investment Corporation are highlighted for their potential to improve profit margins through reduced capital expenditures [8]. - In the nuclear sector, China National Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power are suggested for their growth potential as new units are approved [8]. - The report also recommends focusing on integrated natural gas companies like ENN Energy and China Gas Holdings, which are expected to benefit from lower costs and increased sales [31].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the power and gas sectors, indicating a favorable investment environment due to policy improvements and market dynamics [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the recent improvements in the capacity pricing mechanism for power generation, which aims to stabilize revenue and enhance the profitability of various power sources [6][10]. - It notes a slight increase in natural gas consumption in 2025, with a projected growth of 0.1% year-on-year, indicating a stable demand outlook for the gas sector [32]. Summary by Sections 1. Power Sector: Capacity Pricing Mechanism Improvement - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration have issued a notification to enhance the capacity pricing mechanism for power generation, addressing mismatches in supply and demand within the new energy system [6]. - The new mechanism introduces differentiated pricing for various types of regulatory power sources, ensuring that their capacity value is adequately compensated [7]. - A unified compensation standard for peak capacity across different power sources is established, promoting rational investment and resource allocation in the power sector [8][10]. 2. Gas Sector: Continued Growth in Natural Gas Consumption - Natural gas consumption in China is expected to reach 385.7 billion cubic meters by December 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.9% [32]. - The report emphasizes the impact of cold weather on gas prices, with global prices remaining high, particularly in the U.S. and Europe, which supports the profitability of gas companies [13][19]. - The report suggests that the gas sector will benefit from a combination of lower costs and improved demand, particularly for city gas companies, with recommendations for several key players in the market [34]. 3. Weekly Market Review - The report notes that the public utility, power, gas, and environmental sectors underperformed relative to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index during the week of January 24 to January 30, 2026 [36]. 4. Company and Industry Dynamics - As of the end of 2025, the total installed power generation capacity in China reached 3.89 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 16.1%, with significant growth in solar and wind power installations [43]. - The report includes various company announcements, highlighting performance forecasts and operational updates from key players in the energy sector [44].

Core Viewpoint - Harbin Electric is expected to achieve a significant increase in net profit for 2025, projecting a net profit of 2.65 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 57%, exceeding expectations by 10.5% [1] Group 1: Profit Growth Drivers - The profit growth is primarily driven by the realization of new equipment orders, which contributes to revenue growth, alongside improved internal management efficiency and high-margin orders boosting profitability [1] - The company has seen a substantial increase in new orders, with 2024 and the first half of 2025 expected to reach 56.87 billion yuan and 35.56 billion yuan respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 30.5% and 36.6% [2] - The revenue from coal, hydropower, and nuclear power for the first half of 2025 has already achieved year-on-year growth of 61.9%, 23.6%, and 68.7% respectively [2] Group 2: Industry Outlook - The demand for traditional base-load power sources is expected to drive a new cycle of prosperity in the traditional power equipment sector, with a projected national electricity consumption CAGR of 6% from 2025 to 2030 [1] - The latest "14th Five-Year Plan" anticipates fixed asset investment in the national grid to reach 4 trillion yuan, a 40% increase from the previous plan, emphasizing the need for a multi-energy approach [1] Group 3: Nuclear Power and Export Opportunities - The company's nuclear power products, including steam generators and pressure vessels, are positioned to benefit from the growth potential of fourth-generation nuclear technology [2] - The company has a competitive edge in the nuclear power sector, with a gross profit margin of 30.7% in 2024, surpassing industry averages [2] - The global electricity shortage, particularly in regions with weak grid structures, presents export opportunities for the company's power equipment, especially in Southeast Asia [2] Group 4: Financial Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been revised upwards to 2.65 billion, 3.48 billion, and 4.08 billion yuan, reflecting increases of 57%, 31%, and 17% respectively [3] - The target price for the company has been raised to 27.05 HKD, maintaining a "buy" rating based on the growth potential in the fourth-generation nuclear sector and the impact of significant investment in power equipment [3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a positive investment rating, suggesting active attention to the company due to its operational efficiency and industry improvement [4]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of approximately 2.65 billion RMB for the fiscal year 2025, representing a significant year-on-year increase of about 57.2% from 1.69 billion RMB in the previous year, exceeding prior expectations [2][3]. - The growth in net profit is attributed to increased operating revenue and improved product profitability, aligning with previous assessments regarding the release of high-value orders and potential for margin expansion [2]. - The company has a robust order backlog, particularly in coal power orders, which are expected to be a core profit contributor in the short to medium term, while long-term growth is anticipated from equipment exports and other energy-related projects [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The projected net profit for 2025 is 2.65 billion RMB, a 57.2% increase compared to the previous year [2]. - The increase in profitability is driven by revenue growth and enhanced product margins [2]. Order Backlog and Future Growth - The company maintains a strong order backlog, with coal power orders expected to contribute significantly to profits in the near term [3]. - Long-term growth prospects are supported by energy equipment exports and other projects, which are anticipated to gain momentum in the later stages of the current five-year plan [3]. Investment Recommendation - The report recommends active monitoring of the company, highlighting its status as a quality state-owned enterprise with improving operational efficiency and a favorable industry outlook [4].

哈尔滨电气（1133.HK） 2026-01-27 星期二 即时点评 25 年预计录得 26.5 亿元归母净利润，超预期 【事件】 公司于 2026 年 1 月 26 日晚间公告盈利预告，初步评估，预期公司 2025 年度录得归母净利润约 26.5 亿元（上年同期为人民币 16.9 亿元），同比 大幅增长。主要原因为公司 2025 年度营业收入较去年有所增长，产品盈 利能力进一步提高。 【点评观点】 1. 公司 2025 年度净利润同比+57.2%，超预期： 公司预计 2025 年实现归母净利润 26.5 亿元，同比增长约 57.2%，超过我 们预测的 25 亿元的预期。期间净利润大幅增长主要原因包括营业收入增 长、产品盈利能力进一步提高。这与我们此前对公司前期收获的高价值订 单将逐步释放，毛利率仍有上升空间的判断一致；同时由于公司生产规模 扩大，智能化制造能力显著增强，企业的规模效应和运营效率大幅提升。 2. 短中期优质订单继续释放，中长期设备出口等业务提供持续性： 我们认为短中期公司在手订单依旧充沛，我们预期公司煤电订单在"十五 五前期"依旧是利润贡献核心，"十五五中后期"逐步实现平稳，公司抽 蓄和核电订 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Harbin Electric with a target price of HKD 27.05 [6][4]. Core Insights - Harbin Electric is expected to achieve a net profit of RMB 2.65 billion in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 57%, exceeding expectations by 10.5% [1][4]. - The profit growth is attributed to the fulfillment of new equipment orders and improved internal management efficiency, alongside the realization of high-margin orders [1][4]. - The company is positioned to benefit from increasing domestic electricity demand and the emphasis on multi-energy supply in the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The forecast for net profit for 2025-2027 is adjusted to RMB 2.65 billion, RMB 3.48 billion, and RMB 4.08 billion, reflecting increases of 57%, 31%, and 17% respectively [4][10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are RMB 1.19, RMB 1.55, and RMB 1.82 [4][10]. Market Opportunities - The demand for traditional baseload power sources is expected to drive a significant increase in equipment orders, with new orders projected at RMB 56.87 billion and RMB 35.56 billion for 2024 and the first half of 2025, respectively [11]. - The company has optimized its contracting strategy since 2022, focusing on high-margin quality orders, which may further enhance profitability [11]. Industry Trends - The report highlights a potential growth opportunity in the overseas market due to a shortage of electricity, particularly in data centers and re-industrialization efforts [3]. - Harbin Electric has developed capabilities in heavy-duty gas turbine systems and is positioned to benefit from global electricity shortages, with its small gas turbines expected to see export demand [3][4]. Valuation - The report employs a segmented valuation approach, assigning a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 20.86x for the fourth-generation nuclear power business and 14.17x for the power equipment segment [4][14]. - The target price has been raised to HKD 27.05 from HKD 21, reflecting a positive outlook on the company's growth prospects [4][6].

消息面上，1月26日，哈尔滨电气发布公告，预期该公司2025财政年度取得归属于母公司所有者的净利 润约人民币26.5亿元(上年同期取得约人民币16.86亿元)，较上年同期大幅提升。主要原因是公司2025财 政年度营业收入较去年同期有所增长，产品盈利能力进一步提高。 哈尔滨电气(01133)盈喜后高开逾5%，截至发稿，涨5.26%，报20港元，成交额564万港元。 ...