Core Viewpoint - Haitong International's report indicates that AIA Group is expected to achieve a 14% growth in new business value by the end of Q4 2025, driven by improved agent productivity, diversified channels, and better performance in Hong Kong and mainland markets [1] Group 1 - The forecast for the new business value growth trajectory is projected to remain healthy and sustainable at 15% to 17% over the next two years [1] - The new business value predictions for AIA from 2025 to 2027 have been revised upward by 0% to 7% [1] - The target price for AIA has been increased from HKD 99.5 to HKD 108.5, while maintaining an "outperform" rating [1]

Group 1 - Anta Sports (82020), Li Ning (82331), and JD Health (86618) have the highest short-selling ratios at 100.00% each [1][2] - BYD Company (01211), Meituan (03690), and Xiaomi Group (01810) lead in short-selling amounts, with 1.896 billion, 1.439 billion, and 0.965 billion respectively [1][2] - Li Ning (82331), Shangmei Group (02145), and Bank of China Hong Kong (82388) have the highest deviation values at 37.55%, 31.60%, and 30.16% respectively [1][2] Group 2 - The top short-selling ratio rankings include Anta Sports (82020) at 100.00%, Li Ning (82331) at 100.00%, and JD Health (86618) at 100.00% [2] - The top short-selling amounts are led by BYD Company (01211) at 1.896 billion, Meituan (03690) at 1.439 billion, and Xiaomi Group (01810) at 0.965 billion [2] - The top deviation values are led by Li Ning (82331) at 37.55%, Shangmei Group (02145) at 31.60%, and Bank of China Hong Kong (82388) at 30.16% [2]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) closed at 26,954.92, up by 179.35 points or 0.67% as of February 2, 16:00 Eastern Time [1] - The index reached a high of 27,021.10 and a low of 26,800.30 during the trading session, with a trading volume of 40.725 million shares [1] Major Blue-Chip Stocks Performance - HSBC Holdings closed at HKD 139.961, increasing by 3.91% compared to the Hong Kong close [2] - Tencent Holdings closed at HKD 595.694, down by 0.47% compared to the Hong Kong close [2] Stock Price Movements - Tencent Holdings: Latest price HKD 598.500, down by HKD 7.500 or 1.24% [3] - Alibaba Group: Latest price HKD 163.300, down by HKD 5.900 or 3.49% [3] - HSBC Holdings: Latest price HKD 134.700, down by HKD 1.900 or 1.39% [3] - AIA Group: Latest price HKD 89.050, down by HKD 1.300 or 1.44% [3] - Meituan: Latest price HKD 94.850, down by HKD 2.350 or 2.42% [3] - BYD Company: Latest price HKD 91.000, down by HKD 6.750 or 6.91% [3] - Kuaishou Technology: Latest price HKD 77.000, down by HKD 3.150 or 3.93% [3]

Core Viewpoint - AIA has been upgraded to a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), indicating a positive outlook on its earnings estimates, which is a significant factor influencing stock prices [1][3]. Earnings Estimates and Stock Price Movement - The Zacks rating system is based on changes in earnings estimates, which are strongly correlated with near-term stock price movements [4]. - Institutional investors utilize earnings estimates to determine the fair value of stocks, leading to buying or selling actions that affect stock prices [4]. AIA's Earnings Outlook - The upgrade for AIA reflects an improvement in the company's underlying business, which is expected to drive the stock price higher as investors recognize this trend [5]. - For the fiscal year ending December 2026, AIA is projected to earn $3.18 per share, with a 1.9% increase in the Zacks Consensus Estimate over the past three months [8]. Zacks Rank System - The Zacks Rank system classifies stocks into five groups based on earnings estimates, with a strong historical performance, particularly for Zacks Rank 1 stocks, which have averaged a +25% annual return since 1988 [7]. - AIA's upgrade to Zacks Rank 2 places it in the top 20% of Zacks-covered stocks, indicating a strong potential for market-beating returns in the near term [10].

Group 1: Hang Seng Index (HSI) - The Hang Seng Index experienced a significant pullback after reaching a recent high of 28,000 points, closing around 27,300 points on January 30, with a decrease in trading volume compared to previous days but still at a relatively high level [2] - Investors are divided on the market outlook, with some viewing the pullback as a buying opportunity, while others are cautious about short-term volatility and are considering bear certificates [2] - Technical indicators show a bearish short-term signal with 9 sell signals and 6 buy signals, suggesting market sentiment is under pressure [2] Group 2: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited (CATL) - On January 30, CATL's stock price rose against the market trend, closing at 491 HKD, approaching the 500 HKD mark, with increased trading volume but still below the high levels seen in November [9] - Investors are focused on whether CATL can break through the 500 HKD level, with some looking at call options with a strike price of 629.38 HKD [9] - Technical indicators are neutral, with no clear direction for price movement, and resistance levels are set at 511 HKD and 520 HKD if the 500 HKD mark is surpassed [9] Group 3: Kuaishou Technology (Kuaishou) - Kuaishou's stock price adjusted to close at 80.15 HKD, maintaining the 80 HKD support level, with discussions on the potential to challenge the 90 HKD mark [15] - Technical indicators show a slight advantage for sell signals, indicating upward pressure, with resistance at 84.5 HKD and further at 86.8 HKD [15] - Investors interested in Kuaishou's bull certificates are advised to select products with a redemption price around 70 HKD or lower to mitigate risks [16] Group 4: Zijin Mining Group Co., Ltd. - Zijin Mining's stock price saw significant volatility, closing at 41.9 HKD, with a trading volume reaching a two-month high, indicating a technical pullback [22] - Investors remain optimistic about Zijin Mining, considering the recent drop as a short-term correction, with 38 HKD being a potential entry point [22] - Technical indicators show a slight predominance of sell signals, with key support at 38.5 HKD and further support at 36.3 HKD [22] Group 5: BYD Company Limited - BYD's stock price recorded a notable decline, closing at 97.75 HKD, having fallen below the middle line of the Bollinger Bands [28] - Technical indicators suggest a short-term support level at 94.6 HKD, with further support at 91.3 HKD, and resistance at 101.5 HKD [28] - Investors looking to position in BYD's bear certificates are recommended to choose products with a redemption price above 105 HKD to avoid risks associated with price rebounds [28] Group 6: AIA Group Limited - AIA's stock price fluctuated moderately, closing at 90.35 HKD, above the upper line of the Bollinger Bands, with increased trading volume [35] - Investors are optimistic about AIA's potential to challenge the 100 HKD mark, with technical indicators showing a slight predominance of sell signals [35] - Resistance levels are set at 92.6 HKD and 96.8 HKD, which need to be surpassed for a potential move towards the 100 HKD level [35]

Group 1 - UBS estimates that AIA Group (01299) will see new business value (VNB) growth of 17% and 19% for 2025 based on fixed and actual exchange rates respectively, with a market consensus of 18% growth based on actual rates, indicating a year-on-year growth of 14% and 16% in Q4 [1] - The bank expects VNB growth in Hong Kong to slow down in Q4 compared to a 40% growth in Q3, but strong demand for the Global Flexi savings plan and sales continuation from September to October post-regulatory changes will maintain growth momentum [1] - In mainland China, AIA is expected to experience a moderate slowdown in VNB growth for the full year compared to a 5% increase in the first nine months, primarily because Q4 only accounts for 9% of the 2024 VNB [1] Group 2 - UBS has raised its 2025 earnings per share forecast by 11% to reflect strong market performance in the second half of the year, mainly due to the present value of future new business value increasing [2] - The intrinsic value forecast has been increased by 2% to reflect the upward trend in the stock market and the depreciation of the US dollar [2] - The valuation benchmark has been rolled forward to 2026 [2]

Group 1 - UBS estimates that AIA Group's (01299) new business value (VNB) will grow by 17% and 19% in 2025 based on fixed and actual exchange rates, respectively, indicating a year-on-year growth of 14% and 16% in Q4 [1] - The target price for AIA has been raised from HKD 88 to HKD 106, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] - In Hong Kong, VNB growth is expected to slow in Q4 compared to a 40% increase in Q3, but remains solid due to strong demand for the Global Flexi savings plan and sales momentum extending from September to October [1] Group 2 - In mainland China, VNB growth is anticipated to moderate compared to the first nine months, with a 5% increase, primarily because Q4 only accounts for 9% of the 2024 VNB [1] - In Thailand, a noticeable decline in Q4 is expected as demand was released earlier in the first nine months, with annualized new premiums decreasing by 2.9% from a growth of 8.5% in the first nine months [1] - In Singapore, strong VNB growth from Q3 is expected to continue into Q4, while in Malaysia, VNB growth is anticipated to accelerate in Q4 as the decline in the agency channel narrows [1] Group 3 - UBS has raised its 2025 earnings per share forecast by 11% to reflect strong market performance in the second half of the year, mainly due to the present value of future new business value [2] - The embedded value forecast has been increased by 2% to reflect the upward trend in the stock market and the depreciation of the US dollar [2] - The valuation benchmark has been rolled forward to 2026 [2]

Group 1: Macro Insights - The report highlights that the recent volatility in gold and silver prices is primarily driven by market momentum reversals, with silver attracting high leverage and speculative funds since November 2025 [2][5] - The report anticipates that after the appointment of the new Federal Reserve Chairman, there will be more interest rate cuts than the market expects, with short-term U.S. Treasury yields likely to decline [2][4] - The report notes that the recent decline in the manufacturing PMI does not indicate a weakening economy, as it reflects a temporary fluctuation rather than a downward trend [10] Group 2: Commodity Market Analysis - The report indicates that the recent crash in silver prices has led to liquidity risks that may spread to other commodities, particularly in the non-ferrous metals sector [5][6] - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring the support levels for gold prices, particularly the 60-day moving average, which is currently at $4,400 per ounce [5] - The report suggests that the Shanghai Futures Exchange has implemented measures to manage the risk of a one-sided market in silver futures [5] Group 3: Equity Market Outlook - The report predicts a rebound in the A-share market following the Spring Festival, driven by positive sentiment from performance forecasts and new developments in sectors like AI applications and commercial aerospace [6][10] - It advises a balanced ETF allocation in domestic equities, reflecting a cautious yet optimistic outlook for the market [11] Group 4: Bond Market Perspective - The report notes that the bond market is expected to see increased buying activity due to risk aversion and expectations of monetary easing, with 10-year yields projected to decline to around 1.80% [7][10] - It highlights that the recent adjustments in risk appetite have created trading opportunities in government bonds as a hedge against stock market volatility [4][7]

Core Viewpoint - UBS estimates that AIA's new business value (VNB) will grow by 17% and 19% in 2025 based on fixed and actual exchange rates respectively, indicating a year-on-year growth of 14% and 16% in Q4 [1] Group 1: Business Performance - The growth in VNB for Hong Kong is expected to slow down in Q4, following a 40% increase in Q3, but remains solid due to strong demand for the GlobalFlexi savings plan and sales momentum extending from September to October after regulatory changes [1] - Although a decline in VNB is anticipated for the brokerage channel, the agency and bank insurance channels are expected to perform well in Q4 [1] Group 2: Financial Projections - UBS has raised its earnings per share forecast for 2025 by 11% to reflect strong market performance in the second half of the year [1] - The target price for AIA has been increased from HKD 88 to HKD 106, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1]

Core Viewpoint - UBS estimates that AIA's new business value (VNB) will grow by 17% and 19% in 2025 based on fixed and actual exchange rates respectively, indicating a year-on-year growth of 14% and 16% in Q4 [1] Group 1: Business Performance - The growth in VNB for Hong Kong is expected to slow down in Q4, following a 40% increase in Q3, but remains solid due to strong demand for the GlobalFlexi savings plan and continued sales momentum from regulatory changes in September extending into October [1] - Although a decline in VNB is anticipated for the brokerage channel, the agency and bank insurance channels are expected to perform well in Q4 [1] Group 2: Financial Projections - UBS has raised its earnings per share forecast for 2025 by 11% to reflect strong market performance in the second half of the year [1] - The target price for AIA has been increased from HKD 88 to HKD 106, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1]