[Table_Page] 中报点评|保险Ⅱ | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------|-----------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------|----------------|--------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 证券研究报告 | | [Table_Title] 【 广 发 非 银 | | & | 海 外 】 友 邦 保 险 | | | [ 公司评级 Table_Invest] | 买入 | | | | | | ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 非银金融 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： -32% -12% 8% 28% HSCEI 友邦保险 证券分析师 孙冀齐 A0230523110001 sunjq@swsresearch.com 罗钻辉 A0230523090004 luozh@swsresearch.com 联系人 孙冀齐 (8621)23297818× sunjq@swsresearch.com ——业绩亮眼，23-26 年每股 OPAT CAGR 目标为 9-11% 个险、银保渠道双轮驱动。活跃代理人数目及产能双增，带动1H24代理人渠道NBV yoy+19%， MDRT 注册人数/新入职代理人 yoy+20%/+22%，中国内地招聘人数高增。伙伴分销渠道 NBV yoy+43%；其中，银保渠道 NBV 高增+61%，主要受益于香港、印尼、中国内地等地区增长， 细分市场来看： ⚫ 中国内地：成熟市场+新拓展市场双增。1H24 NBV yoy+36%至 7.82 亿美元；其中，个 险渠道 NBV yoy+20%，银保渠道 NBV 显著提升。个险、银保双轮驱动 NBVM 同比+6.4pct ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for AIA Group Limited (1299) [1] Core Views - The report highlights strong growth in New Business Value (NBV) and sets an operational profit target for the next three years that exceeds expectations [2][4] - The current price of the stock is HKD 51.40, with a target price of HKD 89.80 per share, corresponding to a 2024 P/EV of 1.81 times [3][11] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of 2024, the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 47.3% (actual rate) / 53% (fixed rate), meeting expectations [11] - The after-tax operating profit grew by 3.5% (actual rate) / 7% (fixed rate) [11] - The embedded value increased by 1.2% compared to the end of the previous year, primarily due to currency fluctuations and dividends [11] New Business Value (NBV) - The NBV for the first half of 2024 grew by 21% (actual rate) / 25% (fixed rate), exceeding expectations [11] - In Q2, the NBV growth rate was 5.6% (actual rate), showing a slowdown compared to Q1, attributed to a high base from the previous year [11] - Regionally, NBV growth in Hong Kong was 26%, driven by local customers and mainland visitors [11] - In mainland China, NBV growth reached 36%, with new branches contributing significantly [11] Operational Targets - Management has set a three-year target for compound growth in operating profit per share of 9%-11% from 2023 to 2026 [11] - This growth is expected to be driven by contributions from new business profitability and effective management of existing business [11] Dividend Policy - The interim dividend for 2024 is set at HKD 0.445 per share, a year-on-year increase of 5.2%, with a payout ratio of 50.4% [11]

证券研究报告 证券研究报告 |分析师及联系人 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 5 友邦保险(01299) 股价相对走势 -40% -20% 0% 20% 2023/8 2023/12 2024/4 2024/8 友邦保险 恒生指数 友邦保险发布 2024 年半年报。2024H1 公司实现 NBV 24.55 亿美元，同比增长 25%； 实现税后营运利润 33.86 亿美元，同比增长 7%。公司宣布派发中期股息 0.445 港 元/股，同比增长 5.2%。 ➢ NBV 延续高增，主因量价齐升 2024H1 公司实现 NBV 24.55 亿美元，同比+25%（Q1/Q2 分别为+27%/+15%，实际汇 率口径）。公司 NBV 延续高增，主要系：1）新单保费同比实现较好增长。2024H1 公司实现新单保费 45.46 亿美元，同比+17%。2)新业务价值率同比提升。2024H1 公司的新业务价值率为 53.9%，同比+3.3PCT。分渠道来看，对于代理人渠道，2024H1 公司代理人渠道的 NBV 同比+19%，主要得益于活跃代理人数增加及代理人产能提 升。2024H1 公司的活跃代理人数、代理人产能同比分 ...

本公告僅供參考，並不構成任何人士收購、購買或認購證券的邀請或要約。本公告並非亦無意作為在美國發售本公司證券供出 售的要約。本公司證券並無亦不會根據1933年美國證券法（經修訂）（「美國證券法」）登記，且不得未根據美國證券法登記或適 用豁免登記規定而在美國發售或出售。本公司證券並無亦無計劃在美國公開發售。 截至 2024 年 6 月 30 日止六個月的中期業績 新業務價值上升25%，創歷史新高 每股稅後營運溢利及每股產生的基本自由盈餘均增加10%；每股稅後營運溢利增長目標 向股東返還34億美元；每股中期股息上升5.2% • 新業務價值上升25%至24.55億美元，創歷史新高 內涵價值 • 上半年的營運及投資差異皆為正面差異 • 稅後營運溢利為33.86億美元，每股增加10% 產生的自由盈餘 • 按備考基準計算的股東資本比率(4)為242% • 於4月宣佈在股份回購計劃中增添20億美元，使總額增至120億美元 「友邦保險在2024年上半年締造卓越業績。我們的新業務價值創新高、盈利顯著增長、產生的自由盈餘強 勁，並向股東返還可觀的資本。我們同時亦公佈每股稅後營運溢利自2023年至2026年的複合年均增長率目 標為9 ...

资料来源：S&P 友邦保险在 2023 年取得了强劲增长，并推高了 2024 年的增长基数。即便 如此，我们仍认为友邦保险在 2024 年将取得有韧性的增长。我们预计友邦 保险 1H24 的新业务价值（NBV）在实际汇率下（AER）同比增长 22%， 考虑到上年同期增长强劲（AER yoy：32%），我们认为这一增长水平具有 韧性。上半年报告货币美元对大部分货币升值，因此在不变汇率（CER）下 的同比增速可能会更高。我们预计营运利润（OPAT）同比增长 2%（AER）， 如果考虑到公司回购减少股份的影响，我们预计每股 OPAT 在 1H24 同比增 长 6%，这将是该指标在 2022 年下半年之后的首次显著反弹。考虑到投资 波 动 ， 我 们 下 调 2024-2026 EPS 至 USD0.41/0.54/0.61 （ 前 值 ： 0.44/0.60/0.70）。维持 HKD90 目标价和"买入"评级。 提升资本回报 1 | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------|-----------------| | 基本数据 | | | 目 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for AIA Group [25][29]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant year-on-year increase in New Business Value (NBV) of 31%, reaching USD 1.33 billion, alongside a new USD 2 billion share buyback plan, increasing the total to USD 12 billion [10][25]. - AIA's NBV margin improved to 54.2%, up by 2.1 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a positive trend in profitability [10][11]. - The company is expected to continue benefiting from strong demand for savings products, particularly in the Chinese market, with a focus on the growth of its agency and bancassurance channels [10][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - AIA's insurance revenue for 2023 is projected at USD 17.514 billion, with a net profit of USD 3.764 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13% [13][40]. - The annualized new premium (ANP) is expected to reach USD 24.5 billion, marking a 26% increase [10]. Valuation Metrics - The report estimates a price-to-earnings value (PEV) of 1.29x for 2024, suggesting that the current valuation is low with a high margin of safety [12][16]. - AIA is projected to have a reasonable value range of HKD 82.97 to HKD 86.71 based on absolute valuation methods and comparable company valuations [12][29]. Growth Drivers - The report notes that AIA's new agent recruitment and active agent numbers have both increased by over 20%, indicating strong growth in its distribution channels [11]. - The company is expected to maintain high growth rates in the Chinese market and across ASEAN regions, driven by the development of new branches and strong sales performance [12][29].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for AIA Group (01299) with a target price of HKD 80.0 [24] Core Views - AIA Group's NBV (New Business Value) for Q1 2024 reached USD 1.327 billion, a 31% YoY growth at constant exchange rates [3][7] - The company announced an additional USD 2 billion to its existing USD 10 billion share buyback program, to be completed within 12 months, exceeding market expectations [3][17] - AIA China and Hong Kong were the primary contributors to NBV growth, with YoY increases of 38% and 43%, respectively [7] - The company's optimized capital management policy includes a target dividend payout ratio of 75% of free surplus net amount, reflecting strong governance and confidence in future growth [17] Financial Performance - Annualized new premiums for Q1 2024 were USD 2.449 billion, up 26% YoY, with a new business value margin improving by 2.1 percentage points to 54.2% [7] - The agent channel contributed a 20% YoY increase in NBV, while the partner distribution channel saw a 70% YoY increase due to improved channel value rates [7] - AIA's total assets are projected to grow from USD 270.471 billion in 2022 to USD 350.804 billion in 2026, with net profit expected to increase from USD 3.365 billion in 2022 to USD 5.430 billion in 2026 [10][15] Regional Performance - Mainland China's NBV growth outperformed domestic peers, driven by the "Best Agents" model, with new agent numbers and active new agent numbers both growing over 20% YoY [7] - Hong Kong's NBV growth was fueled by increased contributions from mainland tourists following the reopening of borders [7] - All other regions also achieved double-digit NBV growth, supported by the company's superior channel strategy and high-value products [7] Valuation and Forecasts - The report forecasts AIA's net profit attributable to shareholders to grow to USD 4.316 billion in 2024, USD 4.965 billion in 2025, and USD 5.405 billion in 2026, representing YoY growth rates of 15%, 15%, and 9%, respectively [23] - The company's embedded value (EV) is expected to increase from USD 68.865 billion in 2022 to USD 72.277 billion in 2026, with EV per share (EVPS) rising from USD 4.86 in 2022 to USD 5.10 in 2026 [18] Capital Management - AIA's optimized capital management policy includes a commitment to return capital to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks, starting from 2024 [17] - The company plans to review its capital position regularly and return any excess capital beyond operational needs [17]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 90 HKD [14][16]. Core Insights - The company achieved a record high in new business value (NBV) of 1.327 billion USD in Q1 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 31%. The NBV margin improved by 2.1 percentage points to 54.2% [14][20]. - The company announced an increase of 2 billion USD to its existing 10 billion USD share buyback program, reflecting its commitment to shareholder returns [14][20]. - The report highlights strong performance across various channels, with agent channels growing NBV by 20% and partner distribution channels increasing by 70% [14][20]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, the company reported a new business value of 1.327 billion USD, up 31% year-on-year, with an annualized new premium growth of 26% to 2.449 billion USD [14][20]. - The NBV margin for AIA China rose from 52.7% in H2 2023 to 54.6% in Q1 2024, while AIA Hong Kong saw an increase from 58.1% to 64.3% [14][20]. - Key Southeast Asian markets, including Thailand and Malaysia, also reported double-digit growth in NBV, with Thailand maintaining a NBV margin exceeding 90% [14][20]. Shareholder Returns - The company plans to return 75% of its annual free surplus as dividends and share buybacks starting in 2024, with a reference free surplus of 3.9 billion USD for 2023 [14][20]. - As of April 25, 2024, the company had repurchased shares worth approximately 8.169 billion USD, accounting for 68.1% of the total buyback amount [14][20]. Earnings Forecast - The report slightly adjusts the EPS forecast for 2024-2026 to 0.40, 0.44, and 0.47 USD, respectively, while maintaining a P/EV valuation of 1.7x [14][20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a current price of HKD 57.3 [1][21]. Core Insights - The new business value reached a quarterly high of USD 1.33 billion in Q1 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 31% (fixed exchange rate) and 26.9% (actual exchange rate) [3][17]. - The annualized new premium was USD 2.45 billion, up 22.6% year-on-year, while total weighted premium income was USD 11.22 billion, reflecting a 9.6% increase year-on-year [3][17]. - The company has optimized its capital management policy, targeting a payout ratio of 75% of the annual free surplus net income, with an additional USD 2 billion added to the share buyback plan, bringing the total to USD 12 billion [6][15]. Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - The report shows relative performance of 1.8% over 1 month, -22.0% over 3 months, and -20.4% over 1 year, with absolute performance of 9.0%, -11.6%, and -31.1% respectively [1]. Market Data - The total share capital is 1.1238 billion shares, with a total market capitalization of HKD 643.936 billion. The stock price has ranged from HKD 45.25 to HKD 86.8 over the past year [4]. New Business Value - The new business value in the Hong Kong market grew by 43% year-on-year in Q1 2024, driven by strong local and MCV business performance [3][5]. - The company achieved double-digit growth in new business value across all reported segments, indicating robust recovery momentum post-pandemic [5]. Financial Forecasts - The company is expected to generate net profits of USD 4.839 billion, USD 5.571 billion, and USD 6.277 billion for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 28.6%, 15.1%, and 12.7% [10][22]. - The projected PEV for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is 1.19, 1.12, and 1.04 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [22]. Capital Management - The company plans to return capital to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks, with a total expected return of USD 2.9 billion based on the 2023 free surplus net income [6][15].