Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for AIA Group Limited (01299.HK) [8] Core Insights - AIA Group reported a strong performance with a 18% year-on-year increase in New Business Value (NBV) and announced a new share buyback plan of $1.6 billion [8] - The company achieved a net profit of $6.84 billion, reflecting an 84% year-on-year growth, with a significant increase of 133% in the second half of the year [8] - The embedded value reached $69 billion, up 4% year-on-year, with an operating return on embedded value increasing by 2.0 percentage points to 14.9% [8] - The expected final dividend per share is 130.98 Hong Kong cents, a 10% increase compared to the previous year [8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total insurance revenue for 2023 was $17.514 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 7.32% [8] - After-tax operating profit for 2023 was $6.213 billion, showing a decline of 3.24% year-on-year [8] - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 was $0.35, with projections for 2024 at $0.64 [8] New Business Value (NBV) - The annualized new premium (ANP) for 2023 was $8.61 billion, up 14% year-on-year [8] - The total NBV for the year was $4.71 billion, reflecting an 18% increase [8] - The NBV margin improved by 1.9 percentage points to 54.5% [8] Regional Performance - NBV in Hong Kong increased by 23% to $1.76 billion, accounting for 34.8% of the total [8] - NBV in mainland China reached $1.22 billion, up 20% year-on-year [8] - The "New Malaysia Thailand" region also showed positive growth in NBV, with increases of 15%, 10%, and 15% respectively [8] Investment Strategy - The company has shifted its investment strategy, reducing fixed income allocation to 71.1% while increasing equity allocation to 22.3% [8] - The net investment yield for the year was 4.0%, with a total investment return of 4.9% [8] Capital Management - AIA Group has completed its previous $12 billion share buyback program and plans to implement a new $1.6 billion buyback plan within 2025 [8] - The current stock price corresponds to 1.12 times the estimated price-to-embedded value (PEV) for 2025, indicating a low valuation with a high margin of safety [8]

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·保险(HS) 友邦保险（01299.HK） [Table_Tag] [投资要点 Table_Summary] 2025 年 03 月 15 日 证券分析师 孙婷 执业证书：S0600524120001 sunt@dwzq.com.cn 股价走势 -25% -18% -11% -4% 3% 10% 17% 24% 31% 38% 45% 2024/3/15 2024/7/14 2024/11/12 2025/3/13 友邦保险 恒生指数 市场数据 | 收盘价(港元) | 61.25 | | --- | --- | | 一年最低/最高价 | 45.25/74.60 | | 市净率(倍) | 16.39 | | 港股流通市值(百万港 | 655,019.43 | | 元) | | 2024 年年报点评：NBV 表现出色同比+18%， 加推 16 亿美元股份回购计划 买入（首次） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 保险 ...

投资逻辑 友邦业务覆盖亚太地区 18 个市场，经营及财务表现稳健。1）新 单保费与 NBV 底部周期有韧性，2023 年来重回高增长，2024 年 NBV Margin 企稳回升。2019 年开始受香港社会事件、公共卫生事件等 因素 NBV 承压，2018-2022 年 4 年 NBV 复合增速为-6%，但好于内 地其他寿险公司。在公共卫生事件因素消除、香港通关、内地预 定利率切换下 2023-24 年 NBV 重回双位数正增长，2024Q1-3 NBV 同比+20%，NBV Margin 开始企稳回升。2）得益于新业务价值的稳 定增长以及存量高价值保单的稳定摊销，营运利润实现平稳增长。 2024H1，公司税后归母营运利润同比+3.5%（固定汇率口径同比 +7%）。3）公司内含价值的成长性和可信性兼具。友邦投资回报假 设和贴现率假设根据市场收益率变动及时调整，以保证价值评估 的审慎性。且资产负债久期缺口较小，其内含价值和新业务价值 的利率敏感性远低于内地上市公司。NBV 增长稳健及营运差异优 秀，使得友邦的 ROEV 维持在较高位。4）公司资本管理政策优化， 股东回报的可预期性、稳定性提升。友邦自上市以来分红 ...

AIA Group (01299) Q4 2024 Earnings Call March 13, 2025 09:00 PM ET Company Participants Lee Yuan Siong - Executive Director and Group Chief Executive and PresidentGarth Jones - Group Chief Financial OfficerLance Burbidge - Chief Investor Relations OfficerCharles Zhou - Managing DirectorFisher Zhang - Regional Chief ExecutiveBiswa Misra - Group Chief Technology & Life Operations OfficerMW Kim - Executive DirectorJack Chak-Kwong So - Independent Non-Executive DirectorLeo Grepin - Regional Chief Executive & Gr ...

Financial Performance - New business value increased by 18% to $4.712 billion, with all reporting segments achieving double-digit growth[4] - Annualized new premiums rose by 14% to $8.606 billion, indicating strong market demand[4] - After-tax operating profit amounted to $6.605 billion, reflecting a 12% increase per share[4] - The generated basic free surplus was $6.327 billion, with a 10% increase per share[4] - Operating profit based on embedded value reached $10,025 million, a 14% increase from $8,890 million in 2023[10] - The operating return on embedded value improved to 14.9%, up from 12.9% in the prior year, representing a 2.0 percentage point increase[10] - The total weighted premium income grew to $41,398 million, marking a 10% increase from $37,939 million in 2023[10] - Net operating profit after tax reached a new high of $6.605 billion, with earnings per share increasing by 12%[40] - The basic contract service margin grew by 9.1%, contributing to the increase in after-tax operating profit and indicating strong recurring earnings from quality new business[65] Shareholder Returns - A new round of share buyback worth $1.6 billion was announced, alongside a 10% increase in the final dividend to HKD 1.3098 per share[5] - The total capital returned to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks is projected to be $6.5 billion in 2024[5] - The company returned $6.478 billion to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks during the year[34] - The board proposed a final dividend increase of 10% to HKD 1.3098 per share, resulting in a total annual dividend of HKD 1.7548 per share, up 9%[35] - The company aims to return 75% of annual generated free surplus through dividends and share buybacks, with a new share buyback plan of $1.6 billion approved[35] - The company has returned $18.2 billion to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks from 2022 to 2024[69] Capital Management - After returning capital to shareholders, the embedded value equity reached $71.6 billion, representing a 9% increase per share[4] - The shareholder capital ratio as of December 31, 2024, stands at 236%[4] - AIA Group's capital management policy was optimized in April 2024, increasing the total share buyback program to $12 billion, with 1.409 billion shares repurchased, representing 11.7% of the total shares issued at the time of the announcement[26] - The eligible group capital resources increased from $73.156 billion to $77.650 billion, mainly due to effective business generation and issuance of eligible subordinated securities[169] - The local capital adequacy ratio under the insurance group regulatory framework is 257% as of December 31, 2024, down from 275% in 2023[169] Business Growth - New business value in mainland China increased by 20% to $1,217 million, with annualized new premiums rising to $2,168 million[12] - New business value in Hong Kong grew by 23% to $1.764 billion, driven by an increase in active agents and productivity[42] - New business value in Thailand reached a record high of $816 million, up 15%, supported by strong growth in the agency distribution channel[43] - New business value in Singapore grew by 15% to $454 million, with all distribution channels performing strongly[44] - The overall new business value in other markets increased by 18% to $467 million, with growth recorded across all markets[45] Digital Transformation - The digital submission rate for new business reached 99%, with 82% of all policies completed through automated underwriting[47] - AIA Co. is leveraging advanced digital technology to support its unique agency force, enabling them to provide comprehensive advice on a wide range of protection and wealth propositions[200] Sustainability and Social Impact - The company is committed to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050, integrating climate factors into its strategy and operations[53] - The company has positively impacted 496 million people through various initiatives aimed at promoting health and financial inclusion, aligning with its goal to help one billion people by 2030[27] Market Position and Strategy - AIA Group achieved a new business value growth of 18% to a record high of $4.712 billion in 2024, reflecting strong demand for its quality products and services across all reporting markets and distribution channels[23] - The company set a compound annual growth rate target of 9% to 11% for after-tax operating profit per share from 2023 to 2026, demonstrating confidence in its recovery post-pandemic[21] - The company is focused on enhancing its "Best Agency" strategy, which emphasizes quality recruitment, extensive training, and systematic career development[200] Financial Health - The total assets increased by 7% to $305.454 billion, driven by a 9% rise in financial investments to $272.151 billion[127] - The company reported a significant increase in the fair value of assets, with a 1,013% rise in fair value reserves to $5.744 billion[127] - The company’s total liabilities increased by 8% to $264.641 billion, with insurance and reinsurance contract liabilities rising by 9% to $221.667 billion[127]

24 Feb 2025 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update AIA Group Ltd. (1299 HK) FY24 preview: OPAT back to growth trajectory; resilient VNB despite modest slowdown in 2H AIA's share price underperformed the market and CN insurers despite resilient VNB growth and a solid financial position underpinning attractive shareholder returns. The stock price fell 17.3% in FY24, lagging behind key benchmarks as HSI (+18%), CSI 300 (+15%) and FTSE APAC ex-Japan (+7%) (Fig.1). We attribute the m ...

Core Viewpoint - AIA Group Limited has appointed Zhang Xiaoyu as the Regional Chief Executive Officer, effective upon receiving all necessary regulatory approvals, overseeing operations in mainland China, South Korea, and Vietnam [1] Group 1: Leadership Changes - Zhang Xiaoyu will become a member of the Group Executive Committee and report to the Group CEO and President, Lee Yuanxiang [1] - Zhang holds a master's degree in applied mathematics from Fudan University and is a certified actuary in North America [1] Group 2: Business Expansion - Under Zhang's leadership, AIA China successfully completed the "split reform" and established AIA Life Insurance, the first wholly foreign-owned life insurance company in mainland China [1] - AIA Life has expanded its operations to 10 provinces and cities, including Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong, Shenzhen, and Jiangsu, with recent approvals for new provincial branches in Anhui, Shandong, and Chongqing [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for AIA Group Limited is "Outperform the Market" [6][8][11] Core Views - The report highlights a strong performance in the third quarter, with a 22% year-on-year increase in New Business Value (NBV) to $3.62 billion, and a 16% increase in the third quarter alone to $1.16 billion [6][7] - The NBV margin improved to 53.3%, up 2.4 percentage points year-on-year, indicating enhanced profitability [6][7] - The annualized new premium (ANP) for the first three quarters reached $6.76 billion, reflecting a 16% year-on-year growth [6][7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The report indicates that all segments achieved positive growth, with the agent channel's NBV increasing by 15% year-on-year in Q3, and the partner channel's NBV rising by 16% [7] - AIA China reported a 9% increase in Q3 NBV, with both agent and bancassurance channels showing positive growth [7] - AIA Hong Kong's Q3 NBV grew by 24%, driven by a 28% increase from local customers and a 20% increase from mainland visitors [7] Business Expansion - AIA China has received approval to establish new branches in Anhui and Shandong, which is expected to support future performance [4][8] - The report emphasizes the potential for continued growth in AIA China, particularly through the "best agents" strategy [4][8] Valuation - The current stock price corresponds to 1.2x the estimated 2024 Price to Embedded Value (PEV), suggesting a low valuation with high margin of safety [8][11] - The report estimates a fair value range for the company between HKD 75.45 and HKD 88.35, based on absolute valuation methods and comparable company valuations [8][11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for AIA Group Limited is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - AIA Group Limited achieved a new business value of USD 3.62 billion in the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 22% (fixed exchange rate) [1] - The annualized new premium reached USD 6.76 billion, up 14.1% year-on-year, with all segments showing positive growth in new business value in Q3 [1][2] - The company continues to expand its market presence in mainland China, with new business value growth of 9% in Q3, driven by an increase in active agents and productivity [1][2] Summary by Sections New Business Performance - New business value for the first three quarters of 2024 was USD 3.62 billion, up 22% year-on-year (fixed exchange rate) [1] - Q3 new business value increased by 16.8% year-on-year, with a new business value margin of 53.3%, up 2.4 percentage points [1][2] - Annualized new premiums for Q3 were USD 6.76 billion, reflecting a 14.1% increase year-on-year [1] Market Segmentation - In mainland China, new business value grew by 9% in Q3, with both agency and bancassurance channels contributing to growth [1] - In Hong Kong, new business value increased by 24% in Q3, supported by local and MCV business growth [1] - ASEAN markets saw an 8% increase in new business value, with double-digit growth recorded in Singapore and Malaysia [1] Financial Projections - The company maintains its net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 at USD 4.8 billion, USD 5.6 billion, and USD 6.3 billion respectively [2] - The current stock price corresponds to a PEV of 1.27, 1.19, and 1.11 for 2024-2026 [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for AIA Group Limited (1299) with a target price of HKD 89.80 per share, corresponding to a 2024 P/EV of 1.81 times [4][7]. Core Insights - The company's new business value (NBV) for the first three quarters of 2024 increased by 19.6% (actual exchange rate) / 22% (fixed exchange rate), meeting expectations. The growth was driven by improvements in both new business and value rates, with core channels maintaining good performance [2][7]. - The diversified product strategy is expected to enhance value growth momentum, addressing customer needs and regulatory guidance, which is anticipated to mitigate risks associated with interest spreads and improve profitability [7]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal years 2022A to 2026E, the company’s revenue is projected to grow from USD 19,110 million in 2022 to USD 22,470 million in 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7.3% [6]. - The net profit is expected to increase from USD 282 million in 2022 to USD 6,147 million in 2026, with a significant growth rate of 25.3% in 2024E [6]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to decrease from 328.94 in 2022 to 12.12 in 2026, indicating improved valuation over time [6]. Business Performance - The core regions of the business showed resilience, with NBV growth in mainland China at 9% and Hong Kong at 24%. The growth in Hong Kong was supported by local customers and mainland visitors, with agent and bancassurance channels performing well [7]. - The annualized new premium for the first three quarters of 2024 increased by 14.1% (actual exchange rate) / 16% (fixed exchange rate), driven by both agent and partner distribution channels [7].