受快递涨价、年货节错期、电商税等多重影响，12月快递业务量增速继续下降 智通财经APP获悉，申万宏源发布研报称，展望明年，快递行业需求及反内卷行业自律政策存在多重不 确定性，但头部企业份额、利润的集中趋势确定。推荐反内卷以来优势持续扩大的中通快递- W(02057)、圆通速递(600233.SH)，关注申通快递(002468.SZ)的业绩弹性。极兔速递-W(01519)Q4东南 亚及新市场业务量加速增长，看好公司未来的持续领先优势及行业地位。顺丰控股(002352.SZ)管理结 构和业务线调整充分，关注底部配置机遇。 申万宏源主要观点如下： 事件：快递公司发布12月月报 圆通速递12月快递产品收入64.96亿元，同比增长7.48%;业务完成量28.84亿票，同比增长9.04%;快递产 品单票收入2.25元，同比下降1.43%。韵达股份12月快递服务业务收入46.26亿元，同比下降1.49%;完成 业务量21.48亿票，同比下降7.37%;快递服务单票收入2.15元，同比增长5.91%。申通快递12月快递服务 业务收入58.36亿元，同比增长28.23%;完成业务量25.01亿票，同比增长11.09%;快递服务 ...

申万宏源发布研报称，展望明年，快递行业需求及反内卷行业自律政策存在多重不确定性，但头部企业 份额、利润的集中趋势确定。推荐反内卷以来优势持续扩大的中通快递-W(02057)、圆通速递 (600233.SH)，关注申通快递(002468.SZ)的业绩弹性。极兔速递-W(01519)Q4东南亚及新市场业务量加速 增长，看好公司未来的持续领先优势及行业地位。顺丰控股(002352.SZ)管理结构和业务线调整充分， 关注底部配置机遇。 申万宏源主要观点如下： 事件：快递公司发布12月月报 受快递涨价、年货节错期、电商税等多重影响，12月快递业务量增速继续下降 根据国家邮政局数据，2025年我国快递业务量完成1990亿件，以此计算12月快递业务量增速为2.6%， 明显下降，该行认为主要是受到快递涨价、年货节错期、电商税等多重影响，国家邮政局预计26年快递 业务量增速为8%左右。由于年货节错期影响，该行认为1-2月整体件量增速同比去年有望保持稳健增 长。单价方面，12月行业单价为7.94元，环比增加0.31元，12月快递反内卷继续推进，行业单价上行。 快递公司单价及业务量增速分化 单价环比变动角度：顺丰(+0.34元)> ...

瑞银又指，极兔也有意在物流价值链向上移动，抓住更多来自非电商市场的机遇(目前仅占极兔东南亚 总业务量约10%)，而顺丰稳健的非电商客户基础为极兔提供了一个机会。同时，瑞银不排除双方通过 共享运能在中国营运中产生进一步的协同效应，合作亦可能延伸到亚洲以外。除了极兔已快速发展业务 的拉丁美洲和中东地区，该公司也已开始考虑与顺丰一起开拓欧美市场的可能性。 瑞银发布研报称，极兔速递-W(01519)与顺丰控股（002352）(06936)上周发布交叉持股公告，同意认购 对方新发行的股份(顺丰为H股)。在不进行外部融资的情况下，双方涉及的现金总额各为80亿港元。瑞 银予极兔"买入"评级。 瑞银表示，该项拟议的交易旨在为两家公司深化业务合作铺路，相信双方在合作中存在协同效应。顺丰 一直致力于构建端到端的供应链服务能力，以服务出海中国企业，其中东南亚是其最初的重点市场。而 在海外建立稳固的末端物流网络或许是最后一块拼图。而考虑到极兔在东南亚的强大影响力(按包裹量 计市场份额超过30%);瑞银认为，极兔可能是答案。 ...

瑞银表示，该项拟议的交易旨在为两家公司深化业务合作铺路，相信双方在合作中存在协同效应。顺丰 一直致力于构建端到端的供应链服务能力，以服务出海中国企业，其中东南亚是其最初的重点市场。而 在海外建立稳固的末端物流网络或许是最后一块拼图。而考虑到极兔在东南亚的强大影响力(按包裹量 计市场份额超过30%); 瑞银认为，极兔可能是答案。 瑞银又指，极兔也有意在物流价值链向上移动，抓住更多来自非电商市场的机遇(目前仅占极兔东南亚 总业务量约10%)，而顺丰稳健的非电商客户基础为极兔提供了一个机会。同时，瑞银不排除双方通过 共享运能在中国营运中产生进一步的协同效应，合作亦可能延伸到亚洲以外。除了极兔已快速发展业务 的拉丁美洲和中东地区，该公司也已开始考虑与顺丰一起开拓欧美市场的可能性。 智通财经APP获悉，瑞银发布研报称，极兔速递-W(01519)与顺丰控股(06936)上周发布交叉持股公告， 同意认购对方新发行的股份(顺丰为H股)。在不进行外部融资的情况下，双方涉及的现金总额各为80亿 港元。瑞银予极兔"买入"评级。 ...

2026年伊始，香港资本市场再融资活动火热开场。 截至1月18日， 2026年以来港股上市公司通过配售、供股、代价发行等方式已累计募资超过 270亿港元，较2025年同期的11亿港元实现超20倍增长，为全年资本运作奠定了活跃基调。 开年再融资活跃 格上基金数据显示，截至1月18日，2026年以来港股上市公司通过配售、供股、代价发行方式 累计募集资金270亿港元，较2025年同期11亿港元，大幅增长逾20倍。市场信心与融资需求得 到显著释放。 此番"开门红"并非偶然，而是建立在2025年港股再融资市场创下历史新高的坚实基础之上。 格上基金数据显示，2025年港股再融资市场迎来历史性高点，全年总规模达3253.20亿港元， 不仅较2024年显著扩大，更首次超越同年港股IPO募资规模（约2857亿港元），创历史新高。 公开数据显示，2025年，比亚迪435亿港元的增发成为近十年港股最大再融资项目，小米、华 虹半导体、中国宏桥、吉利汽车等一批上市公司也完成了百亿级募资。众多公司在2025年通过 多次再融资，形成了"持续补血"的格局。 港股再融资市场的活跃，得益于其制度灵活与市场回暖。 格上基金研究员托合江认为，近年来 ...

A股 Market Updates - On January 15, multiple A-share companies released their performance forecasts for 2025, with many expecting significant profit increases. SAIC Motor Corporation anticipates a net profit growth of up to 558%, while companies like Shengnuo Biological and Zhenghai Magnetic Materials expect increases exceeding 200% [2] - Jiamei Packaging announced that its stock has triggered redemption clauses due to its closing price being above 130% of the conversion price for 15 out of the last 30 trading days [2] - ST Chengchang and Zhizhi New Materials announced their resumption of trading after completing investigations into recent abnormal stock price fluctuations [2] - ST Aowei reported that its stock closed at 0.99 CNY per share, warning that if it remains below 1 CNY for 20 consecutive trading days, it may face delisting from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [2] Logistics and E-commerce - SF Holding and Jitu Express announced a strategic mutual shareholding agreement, involving an investment transaction amounting to nearly 8.3 billion HKD [3] - Ctrip is under investigation by the State Administration for Market Regulation, leading to a significant drop in its stock price, with a 6.49% decline on the day of the announcement and a further 20% drop the following day, resulting in a market value loss exceeding 100 billion CNY [3] Financial Data - In 2025, the total number of new A-share accounts reached 27.44 million, a 10% increase year-on-year, marking a three-year high, with total A-share investors exceeding 250 million [4] - The People's Bank of China reported that by the end of 2025, the social financing scale reached 442.12 trillion CNY, growing by 8.3% year-on-year, while the RMB loan balance was 271.91 trillion CNY, up 6.4% [5] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission approved an adjustment to the margin ratio for financing, increasing the minimum margin requirement from 80% to 100%, effective January 19, 2026 [5] Gold Reserves - As of the end of November 2025, non-U.S. countries' official gold reserves exceeded 900 million troy ounces, valued at approximately 3.82 trillion USD [6] Infrastructure and Technology - The State Grid Corporation announced that its fixed asset investment is expected to reach 4 trillion CNY during the 14th Five-Year Plan, a 40% increase from the previous plan [7] - Alibaba's Qianwen App has integrated with various Alibaba ecosystem services, launching over 400 AI functionalities to enhance user experience in daily tasks [7] - Shanghai's new action plan aims to implement L4 autonomous driving technology in various scenarios by 2027, targeting over 6 million passenger trips and 800,000 TEU in freight transport [7] Housing Policy - A joint announcement from the Ministry of Finance, State Taxation Administration, and Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development extended personal income tax policies supporting housing purchases from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2027 [8] Trade Performance - China's total foreign trade in 2025 reached 45.47 trillion CNY, a 3.8% increase, setting a historical record and maintaining its position as the world's largest goods trading nation [8]

长江商报消息 ●长江商报记者 黄聪 顺丰控股（002352.SZ、06936.HK）和极兔速递（01519.HK）这两家物流行业龙头，今后的合作将更加 紧密。 1月15日，顺丰控股与极兔速递联合发布公告称，双方宣布达成一项战略性的相互持股协议，将互为对 方增发新股，投资交易金额近83亿港元（按当前汇率计算约合人民币74亿元）。 长江商报记者统计发现，2025年前11个月，顺丰控股供应链及国际业务营业收入达734.2亿元，较上年 同期713.63亿元增长约3%，与整体业务相比，公司国际业务增速相对较慢。 武汉一家物流企业相关负责人向长江商报记者表示，从顺丰控股角度看，通过投资极兔可以分享其在全 球市场的增长收益，同时借助极兔速递的资源和优势提升自身国际业务和国内业务的竞争力。 9个月总件量增33.4% 值得关注的是，这并非两家企业首次牵手。早在2023年，极兔速递赴港上市前，顺丰控股就通过投资持 有极兔1.54%股份。 同年，顺丰控股还将旗下丰网速运100%股权，以11.83亿元价格出售给极兔速递，为其注入关键资源。 与极兔速递拟互认股份 1月15日，顺丰控股与极兔速递联合发布公告称，双方宣布达成一项战略性的相 ...

New Consumption Highlights - San Yuan launched "Beijing Yogurt" with four flavors, emphasizing natural ingredients and high protein content [5][3] - "Happy Monkey" supermarket introduced a new pomegranate jasmine green tea drink, highlighting its quality ingredients and natural flavors [8] - Haidilao and Coca-Cola collaborated to create the "Charming Hot Pot" meal set, featuring popular dishes paired with Coca-Cola [6][12] - Oreo released a new "Double Layer Cheesecake" at Sam's Club, designed for social gatherings and celebrations [11][8] - "Mango Snow Ice City" launched a new banana series, including banana milk and banana latte, with promotional offers [11][30] - Lemon Republic and Tmall Supermarket introduced "Cloud Top Lemon," featuring high juice content and natural flavors [11][30] Industry Events - Deckers Brands announced the closure of two niche outdoor footwear brands, Ahnu and Koolaburra, by Q3 of the 2026 fiscal year [13] - a2 became the first official dairy partner of the Australian Open, launching limited edition gift boxes [14] - SF Express and Jitu announced a strategic mutual shareholding agreement, with an investment amount of HKD 8.3 billion [15] - JD Health and Heliang deepened their cooperation to innovate health management models [15] Investment and Financing Movements - Danish biotech company Bactolife secured over €30 million (approximately RMB 244 million) in Series B financing [21] - McCormick & Company acquired a 25% stake in its Mexican subsidiary for $750 million (approximately RMB 5.238 billion) [22] - L Catterton acquired a majority stake in American cheese brand Good Culture, with the deal valued at over $500 million [24] - Lemon tea brand Linli completed a multi-million A round financing, with a valuation close to RMB 1 billion [24] New Product Launches - Tea Xiaokai launched a new light sparkling osmanthus pear fermented yogurt drink, targeting health-conscious consumers [28] - Starbucks China introduced a new truffle chocolate flavor series, including truffle chocolate lattes [34] - Kudi Coffee established a new company in Suzhou with a registered capital of $160 million, expanding its operational scope [32]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the logistics and transportation sector, including SF Holding and Jitu Express [6]. Core Insights - The strategic alliance between Jitu Express and SF Holding aims to enhance cross-border logistics and network expansion, leveraging each company's strengths for better collaboration and market reach [1][3]. - The oil shipping market is experiencing a rise in freight rates due to geopolitical risks and optimistic sentiment among shipowners, with a focus on companies like China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping Energy [2][12]. - The express delivery sector is expected to see significant growth, with a projected 8% increase in business volume in 2026, driven by overseas e-commerce growth and the strategic partnership between Jitu and SF [3][17]. Summary by Sections Weekly Insights and Market Review - The transportation sector index fell by 0.94% in the week of January 12-16, 2026, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.49 percentage points [1][18]. - The top-performing segments included shipping, public transport, and express delivery, with respective gains of 1.51%, 1.42%, and 0.93% [18]. Aviation - The aviation sector is expected to benefit from low supply growth and recovering demand, with a focus on business travel and international flight recovery [11][26]. Shipping and Ports - VLCC freight rates have significantly increased due to concentrated shipments from the Middle East and West Africa, with rates reaching $99,627 per day [2][12]. - The dry bulk shipping market is facing a decline in rates, particularly for Cape-sized vessels, due to slow recovery in demand [13][14]. Logistics - The express delivery sector is highlighted with two main investment themes: international expansion through the Jitu and SF partnership and the internal competition dynamics among leading express companies [3][17]. - The express delivery business volume is projected to grow by approximately 8% in 2026, despite a slowdown in growth rates due to market saturation and price increases [17].

Core Viewpoint - The strategic shareholding agreement between Jitu Express and SF Express, totaling HKD 8.3 billion, marks a significant shift in the logistics industry, indicating a move from individual competition to collaborative strategies aimed at capturing growth opportunities in cross-border e-commerce and international supply chains [1][4]. Group 1: Strategic Partnership Details - SF Express will acquire 10% of Jitu Express through the issuance of approximately 226 million H-shares at HKD 36.74 per share, while Jitu Express will issue about 822 million B-shares to SF Express at HKD 10.10 per share, establishing a long-term partnership with a five-year lock-up period [2][3]. - This partnership allows SF Express to nominate a board member at Jitu Express, enhancing governance and strategic decision-making collaboration [2]. Group 2: Market Position and Competitive Advantage - SF Express, as Asia's largest and the world's fourth-largest logistics service provider, leverages its strong international air freight capabilities, while Jitu Express has captured over 32% market share in Southeast Asia and established competitive local delivery networks in 13 countries [3]. - The collaboration enables SF Express to access Jitu's established end-delivery network without heavy investments in overseas infrastructure, while Jitu can enhance its cross-border logistics solutions using SF's resources [3]. Group 3: Industry Implications and Market Reactions - The partnership is seen as a signal of the logistics industry's shift from price wars to value-based competition, potentially improving profit margins and market valuations for both companies [4][5]. - Following the announcement, both companies' stock prices rose, reflecting positive market sentiment regarding the potential for improved profitability and market share expansion [5]. - Analysts view this collaboration as a crucial step for both companies in enhancing their international logistics capabilities and positioning them favorably in the global market [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The "SF Express trunk + Jitu Express end" model is expected to become a preferred logistics solution for Chinese brands going global, potentially ending price wars and prompting other players to reassess their competitive strategies [6]. - The ongoing collaboration is anticipated to create a more efficient and resilient global logistics network, generating long-term value for shareholders and setting a new benchmark for the logistics industry [6].