Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][18] Core Views - The company is advancing its innovative drug clinical trials rapidly, maintaining steady growth in performance, and currently has a low valuation with stable dividends. Due to the core product sales growth exceeding expectations, the profit forecast has been raised, with projected net profits for 2024-2026 being 2.017 billion, 2.296 billion, and 2.571 billion yuan respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 30.2%, 13.8%, and 12.0% [2][18]. Summary by Sections Strategic Cooperation - The company has reached a strategic cooperation with Bai Li Tian Heng to jointly promote the combined treatment of 707 and BL-B01D1 for solid tumors in China [2]. Product Development - 707 is a PD-1xVEGF dual antibody developed by the company, with advanced research progress and excellent early clinical data, expected to enter Phase III clinical trials in the second half of this year [2][18]. - The core product, Teibiao, continues to see sales growth and has achieved favorable results in medical insurance negotiations, expected to maintain steady growth in 2025-2026 [2][18]. Clinical Data - 707 has shown good clinical data in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and colorectal cancer (CRC), with over 300 patients enrolled in clinical trials [5][9]. - In a Phase II clinical study for PD-L1 positive NSCLC patients, the overall objective response rate (ORR) was 59%, and the disease control rate (DCR) was 97% [6][9]. Competitive Landscape - Compared to other PD-(L)1/VEGF dual antibodies, 707 is at a relatively advanced stage in clinical development, with only one competitor, AK112, having been approved for market [13][18]. - The combination of dual antibodies and antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs) is expected to become a new generation of tumor immunotherapy, with limited competition in the PD-(L)1 dual antibody space [2][18]. Financial Forecast - The company’s financial projections indicate steady revenue growth, with expected revenues of 9.004 billion, 10.123 billion, and 11.177 billion yuan for 2024-2026, respectively [21].

三生制药（1530.HK） 开展双抗 ADC 联用研究，研发矩阵储备丰富 | 财务指标 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 6859.4 | 7815.9 | 8863.3 | 9988.9 | 11407.3 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | 7.5 | 13.9 | 13.4 | 12.7 | 14.2 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1914.9 | 1549.2 | 2004.9 | 2212.3 | 2475.7 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | 16.0 | -19.1 | 29.4 | 10.3 | 11.9 | | ROE（%） | 14.8 | 11.0 | 12.7 | 12.4 | 12.4 | | EPS 最新摊薄（元） | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1.0 | | P/E（倍） | 7.1 | 8.8 | 6.8 | 6.2 | 5.5 | | P/B（倍） | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.8 | ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook based on its core products and innovative pipeline [5][11]. Core Views - The company is a leading domestic biopharmaceutical enterprise with a robust innovation strategy and a diverse product portfolio. It has over 40 marketed products across various therapeutic areas, including nephrology, oncology, autoimmune diseases, ophthalmology, and dermatology. Key products like Tevaz (rhTPO) and the Mandi series are expected to maintain steady growth. The company has a rich pipeline with competitive assets in IL-17 and IL-4R, as well as innovative dual antibodies like PD-1/VEGF, which are progressing well [6][13]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - As of February 14, 2025, the closing price is HKD 6.73, with a market capitalization of HKD 16,122.21 million. The stock has a one-year high of HKD 7.85 and a low of HKD 4.91. The debt-to-asset ratio stands at 29.53% [3]. Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of CNY 89.40 billion, CNY 98.38 billion, and CNY 109.26 billion for 2024-2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 14.4%, 10.0%, and 11.1% respectively. Net profits are expected to be CNY 17.69 billion, CNY 20.22 billion, and CNY 23.04 billion, with growth rates of 14.2%, 14.3%, and 13.9% respectively, resulting in a PE ratio of 8, 7, and 7 times [8][11]. Product Pipeline and Innovation - The company has a diverse pipeline focusing on high-potential products in key therapeutic areas. Notable candidates include: - SSS06 (long-acting rhEPO) with NDA acceptance in July 2024. - SSGJ-608 (IL-17 monoclonal antibody) with NDA acceptance in November 2024, expected approval in 2025-2026. - Several other candidates in Phase III clinical trials, including SSGJ-613 (IL-1β) and SSGJ-611 (IL-4R) [7][30]. Core Product Performance - Tevaz, the company's flagship product, achieved a revenue of approximately CNY 24.8 billion in the first half of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 22.6%. Other products like Mandi also showed positive sales growth, indicating a strong performance across the product portfolio [40][41]. Strategic Collaborations - The company has established multiple strategic collaborations to enhance its product offerings and market reach. Notable partnerships include collaborations for innovative products like HER2 ADC and FLT3 inhibitors, which are expected to contribute to future revenue growth [32][34][35].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 9.91, representing a potential upside of 58.9% from the current price of HKD 6.24 [2][7][8]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated strong early clinical data for its PD-1/VEGF dual antibody (707), showing promising efficacy in treating various cancers, particularly non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) [7][8][9]. - The financial outlook is positive, with projected revenue growth of 12% and net profit growth of 13% for FY25, supported by a robust pipeline and favorable market conditions [7][12][15]. - The company is actively pursuing global licensing opportunities for its innovative therapies, indicating potential for international expansion and revenue diversification [7][9][10]. Financial Summary - **Sales Revenue**: Expected to grow from RMB 7,816 million in FY23 to RMB 9,892 million in FY25, reflecting a CAGR of approximately 12.8% [7][12]. - **Net Profit**: Projected to increase from RMB 1,549 million in FY23 to RMB 2,147 million in FY25, with a notable growth rate of 23.2% in FY24 [7][12]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: Anticipated to rise from RMB 0.64 in FY23 to RMB 0.89 in FY25 [7][12]. - **Valuation Metrics**: The company is trading at a P/E ratio of 6.6 for FY25, indicating attractive valuation compared to industry peers [7][12]. Clinical Development - The company plans to initiate Phase III clinical trials for its 707 therapy targeting NSCLC and CRC in the near future, which could further validate its market potential [7][8][9]. - Multiple early-stage pipelines are entering clinical phases, including promising candidates for pain management and autoimmune diseases, enhancing the company's growth prospects [7][10][12]. Market Position - The company holds a significant market capitalization of HKD 15,080.8 million and has shown resilience in stock performance, with a 52-week price range of HKD 4.94 to HKD 7.82 [2][4]. - The shareholder structure indicates strong institutional support, with TMF (Cayman) Ltd. holding 23.9% and BlackRock, Inc. holding 5.1% [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 9.03, representing a potential upside of 48.28% from the current price of HKD 6.09 [1][27]. Core Insights - The company has successfully renewed key products, including Tevaz (特比澳) and HER2 monoclonal antibody, which provides a solid foundation for revenue growth. The company is also accelerating its innovative drug pipeline, with multiple products submitted for market approval [11][16][27]. - Revenue projections for the company are estimated at RMB 87.07 billion, RMB 97.31 billion, and RMB 107.1 billion for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding EPS of RMB 0.84, RMB 0.98, and RMB 1.10 [11][27]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2024, the company reported total revenue of RMB 44.02 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16.12%. The pre-tax profit was RMB 14.22 billion, up 19.08%, and net profit reached RMB 10.90 billion, reflecting an 11.15% growth [16][20]. - The sales of Tevaz reached RMB 24.8 billion, marking a 22.6% increase compared to the previous year [16][20]. Research and Development - The company is significantly increasing its R&D investments, with a diverse pipeline of 30 products under development, including 15 antibody products and 6 small molecule drugs. Notable collaborations include the exclusive commercialization rights for certain indications of Crizotinib in mainland China [15][17]. - Innovative products such as SSS06, an erythropoietin product for anemia treatment, and other biologics are expected to drive future growth, with several products anticipated to be approved for market launch between 2025 and 2027 [15][22][26].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 9.81, representing a potential upside of 54.5% from the current price of HKD 6.35 [4][30]. Core Insights - The company is expected to experience rapid growth in its key product, Tevazo, with projected revenues of RMB 5.11 billion in 2024, accounting for 58% of total revenue. The penetration rate of Tevazo among CTIT patients is anticipated to increase from 29% in 2023 to 35% in 2024 [8][9]. - The company has successfully renewed multiple products in the national medical insurance directory, including Tevazo and HER2 monoclonal antibody, which will help stabilize prices and support steady growth [2][3]. - The company has a robust pipeline with several innovative products entering NDA or Phase III clinical trials, expected to be approved between 2025 and 2027, providing new growth momentum [2][3]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow by 12.8% in 2024 and 12.2% in 2025, with corresponding revenues of RMB 8.82 billion and RMB 9.89 billion respectively [3][20]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase by 23.7% in 2025, reaching RMB 2.18 billion, with a basic earnings per share of RMB 0.90 [3][20]. - The current market capitalization corresponds to a PE ratio of 6.6 times for 2025, indicating an attractive valuation [2][3]. Pipeline and Product Development - The company is advancing its pipeline with several products, including long-acting EPO and IL-17, which are expected to be submitted for approval in 2025 [2][17]. - The introduction of new products, such as the oral solution of paclitaxel and other late-stage clinical products, is anticipated to become significant growth drivers starting in 2026 [2][17]. - The company is also expanding its product offerings in dermatology and hair loss, with promising products like Winlevi and semaglutide in Phase III clinical trials [16][17]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company has established a strong marketing team and channel advantages in the autoimmune field, which will help capture market share for new autoimmune drugs post-launch [15][17]. - Tevazo is positioned as a leading treatment option for chemotherapy-induced thrombocytopenia (CIT), with evidence supporting its efficacy over competitors [10][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of HKD 9.81 [4] Core Insights - The company has successfully renewed multiple products in the 2024 National Medical Insurance Directory, including Tevizo and HER2 monoclonal antibody, and has added a new indication for Tevizo in pediatric ITP [1][2] - The company is expected to see stable pricing for renewed products due to ongoing support from the medical insurance fund for innovative drugs, which will contribute to steady growth [1][2] - The company’s revenue is projected to grow by 12.8% in 2024 and 12.2% in 2025, with a corresponding net profit growth of 13.6% in 2025 [4] Summary by Sections - **Product Renewals and New Additions**: Tevizo and HER2 monoclonal antibody have been successfully renewed, with Tevizo gaining a new indication for pediatric ITP. The newly approved drug, sodium naftifine oral disintegrating tablet, has also entered the medical insurance directory [1][2] - **Pipeline Development**: The company is advancing its pipeline with several innovative products entering NDA or Phase III clinical trials, expected to be approved between 2025E and 2027E, providing new growth momentum [1][3] - **Sales and Market Expansion**: The company has established a robust sales capability across various channels, including blood, oncology, nephrology, and rheumatology, and is continuously enriching its innovative pipeline [3] - **Valuation Metrics**: The current market capitalization corresponds to 6.6 times the estimated PE for 2025, indicating an attractive valuation. The expected dividend payout ratio is 30%, with a projected dividend yield of 4.5% for 2025 [1][4]

参加赛生制药近期业务进展电话会我是中台医药的分析师曹泽运和我一同在线主持的还有沐一山老师非常荣幸邀请到赛生制药公司领导CFO何总IRD赵总以及IR团队赛生制药是我们长期以来一直跟踪推荐看好的港股法玛雷标的 那么在相关的标签上有成长 红利 股息等等的表现非常出众那在此同时 今年年内有多笔S&T在原油矩阵上拥有拓展同时在更早的一批里有in house的分子持续发力从MD到一期到二期也有相当的进展 那今天呢应该说是从在整体市场都表现不错的情况下德城制药的那个股价表现应该说更加非常出众所以就近期的一些业务进展呢我们今天也邀请到公司领导和市场一起做一个交流那我们今天这个交流的大概是这样因为前期已经基本收到了相关的问题总共有四项那么就这四项问题请公司先大致做一个赘述之后我们来开放这个自由问答环节 那可能有些朋友是电话接入的所以我简单先念一下我们这个前面的一些问题第一个是在多个产品已经完成了以导谈判续约的结果落地请公司领导简单简要介绍一下这方面的情况第二个是年内有多笔特色产品的来自于deal来自于deal也扩充了这个产品矩阵那这些产品后续的这个战略准备和安排等等 第三是控股总公司三生国建多个资源领域的抗体药物都已经推进至了 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司动态点评 2024 年 11 月 5 日 三生制药（1530.HK） 国内生物制药先驱，在研产品储备丰富 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------|-------|--------------------------------------|-------|-------|---------------|--------------------------------------|----------| | 财务指标 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | 增持（首次覆盖） | | | 营业收入（百万元） | | 6859.4 7815.9 9090.0 10251.4 11711.1 | | | | 股票信息 | | | 增长率 yoy （ % ） | 7.5 | 13.9 | 16.3 | 12.8 | 14.2 | | | | 归母净利润（百万元） | | 1914.9 1549.2 2173.2 | | | 2443.3 2726. ...

Market Position and Product Development - As of June 30, 2024, the company holds a 66.2% market share in the platelet reduction treatment market in mainland China for its product Tevaziv, according to IQVIA[2]. - The company has a total of 28 products under development, with 25 being innovative drugs in mainland China, including 12 hematology/oncology products[2]. - The company achieved a 42.7% market share in the rhEPO market in mainland China during the first half of 2024[2]. - The company has established a national distribution network that sells products to over 9,700 hospitals and medical institutions across mainland China[3]. - The company aims to expand its product marketing to developed countries and is collaborating with international partners on its pipeline products[3]. - The company introduced Semaglutide injection in the first half of 2024, targeting the domestic weight loss market[2]. - The approval of the Minoxidil foam (5% formulation) for treating androgenetic alopecia and alopecia areata marks a significant product launch for the company[7]. - The new indication for Tevizo (TPO) for treating persistent or chronic primary immune thrombocytopenia (ITP) in children was approved on April 2, 2024[8]. - Tevizo holds a 34.5% market share by volume and 66.2% by sales in the treatment of thrombocytopenia in mainland China as of the first half of 2024[10]. - The company has submitted a new drug application for Tevizo to treat chronic liver disease-related thrombocytopenia, which has been accepted by the National Medical Products Administration[10]. - The company is expanding its market presence in Asia and Africa for Tevizo, which is currently undergoing registration in multiple countries[10]. Financial Performance - Revenue for the six months ended June 30, 2023, increased by RMB 605.6 million or 16.0% to RMB 4,389.4 million[6]. - Gross profit for the same period rose by RMB 595.8 million or 18.6% to RMB 3,797.4 million, with a gross margin increase from 84.6% to 86.5%[6]. - Net profit attributable to equity holders increased by RMB 109.3 million or 11.1% to RMB 1,089.9 million, while adjusted operating profit rose by RMB 16.7 million or 1.5% to RMB 1,112.4 million[6]. - EBITDA for the six months increased by RMB 311.0 million or 23.4% to RMB 1,641.5 million, with adjusted operating EBITDA rising by RMB 241.6 million or 17.0% to RMB 1,663.9 million[6]. - The group’s revenue for the reporting period was approximately RMB 4,389.4 million, an increase of about RMB 605.6 million or approximately 16.0% compared to RMB 3,783.8 million for the six months ended June 30, 2023[31]. - Sales of Teva increased to approximately RMB 2,475.9 million, up about RMB 456.8 million or approximately 22.6% from RMB 2,019.1 million for the six months ended June 30, 2023, accounting for about 56.4% of total revenue[31]. - Sales in the hair loss sector rose to approximately RMB 557.2 million, an increase of about RMB 48.4 million or approximately 9.5% compared to RMB 508.8 million for the six months ended June 30, 2023, representing about 12.7% of total revenue[32]. Research and Development - The company is focusing on research and development to provide innovative therapies for patients in mainland China and globally[3]. - The company has a research team of nearly 700 experienced scientists focused on accelerating clinical development and seeking breakthrough therapies[24]. - The company is actively developing 28 products, with 25 of them being innovative drugs in mainland China[22]. - Among the 28 products, there are 15 antibody products, 7 other biological products, and 6 small molecule drugs[22]. - The company has completed Phase III clinical trials for SSS06 (NuPIAO), a second-generation rhEPO product for treating anemia, and submitted a new drug application (NDA) in July 2024[24]. - The Phase III clinical trial for the anti-IL-17A antibody (608) has successfully met all efficacy endpoints, with BLA submission expected in Q4 2024[24]. - The company has 12 products in the hematology/oncology pipeline and 10 targeting autoimmune diseases, including rheumatoid arthritis and other conditions[22]. - The company plans to complete patient enrollment for the Phase III trial of anti-IL-1ß antibody (613) for acute gouty arthritis by the end of 2024[25]. - The company is conducting a Phase III clinical trial for TRK820, aimed at improving pruritus in chronic liver disease patients, with NDA submission expected in 2024[24]. Market Strategy and Expansion - The company is actively pursuing investment and acquisition strategies to identify high-value assets while maintaining a dual-track approach of independent research and external collaboration[30]. - The company is focusing on key therapeutic areas such as nephrology, autoimmune diseases, hair and skin, hematology, and oncology, with an emphasis on accelerating the development of autoimmune products[30]. - Mandi plans to invest in market education and digital marketing to increase brand recognition and sales scale across various e-commerce platforms[14]. - The company aims to enhance its academic recognition and brand awareness through targeted marketing and promotion among medical experts[28]. Corporate Governance and Shareholder Matters - The board of directors has not recommended any interim dividend for the reporting period[57]. - The company repurchased a total of 43,346,500 shares at a total cash consideration of HKD 266,284,340 during the reporting period, with 22,119,500 shares cancelled and 21,227,000 shares held as treasury shares[59]. - The audit committee reviewed the unaudited interim financial information and found all accounting treatments adopted to be satisfactory[58]. - The company has adopted the corporate governance code as per the Hong Kong Stock Exchange listing rules, ensuring compliance with applicable governance standards[54]. - Changes in the board include the resignation of Dr. Liu Jing as a director and general manager, and the appointment of Ms. Zhang Jiao'e as a non-executive director, effective June 25, 2024[57]. Employee and Workforce Management - The company employs 5,607 staff across its operational facilities in Shenyang, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Shenzhen, and Como, Italy[3]. - Employee costs for the reporting period amounted to approximately RMB 721.9 million, up from RMB 604.4 million in the same period last year, reflecting a year-over-year increase of about 19.4%[53]. - The company has implemented various incentive plans, including a stock option plan and a share award plan, to reward eligible participants contributing to business success[53]. Financial Position and Cash Flow - Current assets net value as of June 30, 2024, was approximately RMB 3,847.5 million, down from approximately RMB 5,465.1 million as of December 31, 2023[45]. - Total interest-bearing bank borrowings as of June 30, 2024, were approximately RMB 2,966.5 million, a decrease from approximately RMB 3,574.3 million as of December 31, 2023[46]. - The leverage ratio decreased from approximately 29.3% as of December 31, 2023, to approximately 25.0% as of June 30, 2024[47]. - The company estimates total capital expenditures for the next three years will range from RMB 1,000 million to RMB 1,100 million, primarily for maintaining existing facilities and expanding capacity[52]. - The company’s operating cash flow for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 1,092,711 thousand, compared to RMB 1,184,485 thousand for the same period in 2023, reflecting a decrease of approximately 7.7%[93]. Shareholder Equity and Dividends - The company declared a final dividend of RMB (551,834) thousand for the year 2023, indicating a commitment to returning value to shareholders[91]. - The total equity attributable to the parent company as of June 30, 2024, was RMB 15,964,423 thousand, showing growth from RMB 15,400,450 thousand as of December 31, 2022[92]. - The company proposed a final dividend of HKD 0.25 per share for the year ended December 31, 2023, amounting to RMB 551,834,000, which was not paid during the reporting period[112].