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探讨丨本轮银行股上涨的逻辑及其持续性
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2025-05-20 12:52
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight (Maintain)" [5] Core Viewpoints - The current banking sector rally is based on a two-phase logic: the first phase focuses on the certainty of bank stocks, while the second phase involves a "rush" by public funds that are underweight in banks. The outlook for bank stocks remains strong due to their stability and dividend value in an uncertain economic environment [7][10][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Two-Phase Logic of the Current Banking Rally - The first phase emphasizes the relative certainty of bank stocks amid economic uncertainty, highlighting the resilience and dividend value of the banking sector [7][10]. - The second phase indicates a "rush" by active funds that are underweight in bank stocks, with a reported underweight difference of 8.33% in Q1 2025, the largest among all sectors [7][12]. 2. Outlook for the First Phase Logic - The certainty of bank stocks is a strong logic, with expectations of continued market activity supported by favorable policies. The banking sector is transitioning from a "pro-cyclical" to a "weak-cyclical" phase due to three main reasons: increased correlation with fiscal policies, a stable customer base supported by national credit, and a controlled risk release environment [7][21][22]. 3. Stability of Banking Sector Performance - The banking sector shows strong fundamental resilience, with a non-performing loan generation rate of 0.64% in Q1 2025, indicating a slight improvement. The provision coverage ratio stands at 237.99%, ensuring stability in asset quality and profit growth [12][13][19]. 4. Outlook for the Second Phase Logic - The second phase requires monitoring of policy details and the behavior of public funds. The "Action Plan for Promoting High-Quality Development of Public Funds" is expected to shift fund allocations towards larger weight sectors, potentially increasing capital inflows into the banking sector [20][22]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on banks with regional advantages and strong certainty, particularly city commercial banks in regions like Jiangsu, Shanghai, and Chengdu, as well as large banks with high dividends such as Agricultural Bank, Construction Bank, and Industrial and Commercial Bank [20][24].
智通港股52周新高、新低统计|5月20日
智通财经网· 2025-05-20 08:45
智通财经APP获悉,截止5月20日收盘,有91只股票创52周新高,其中三生制药(01530)、TEAMWAY INTL GP(01239)、中国碳中和(01372)创高率位于前3位,分别为49.25%、30.53%、17.14%。 52周新高排行 | 股票名称 | 收盘价 | 最高价 | 创高率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 三生制药(01530) | 19.180 | 22.000 | 49.25% | | TEAMWAY INTL GP(01239) | 0.229 | 0.248 | 30.53% | | 中国碳中和(01372) | 1.600 | 1.640 | 17.14% | | 松景科技(01079) | 0.080 | 0.099 | 16.47% | | H&H国际控股(01112) | 13.720 | 14.140 | 16.28% | | 中华银科技(00515) | 0.144 | 0.150 | 11.11% | | 英皇钟表珠宝(00887) | 0.290 | 0.305 | 8.93% | | 百应控股(08525) | 1.000 | 1.0 ...
银行业周报(20250512-20250518):当前五大行A股股息率处于何种水平?-20250518
Huachuang Securities· 2025-05-18 08:16
证 券 研 究 报 告 银行业周报(20250512-20250518) 推荐(维持) 当前五大行 A 股股息率处于何种水平? 银行 2025 年 05 月 18 日 华创证券研究所 2015-2025 年,大致可以划分为四个阶段:1)2Q15-1Q16,五大行季度平均股 息率震荡上行,平均股息率从 4.4%升至 5.3%;2)2Q16-1Q18,五大行季度平 均股息率震荡下行,从 5.3%降至 4.0%;3)2Q18-1Q23,五大行季度平均股息 率开启较长时间的震荡上行,从 4.4%升至 7.2%;4)2Q23-2Q25,五大行季度 平均股息率呈现较快下行趋势,从 6.3%降至 4.4%。当前水平处于 2015 年以 来的较低分位,与 2Q15 和 2Q18 水平相当。 与历史上当期的国债收益率相比,除了 1Q18 跑输 10 年期国债收益率之外, 其余时间五大行季度平均股息率均高于 10 年期国债收益率。其中 1Q20-2Q21, 高于 10 年期国债收益率 2pct;3Q21-2Q24,高于 10 年期国债收益率 3-4pct。 25 年以来仍然高于 10 年期国债收益率 2pct。 24 年所有 A ...
银行角度看4月社融:政府债保持高增,透支与预期影响贷款
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2025-05-18 07:50
银行角度看 4 月社融:政府债保持高增,透支与预期影响贷款 银行 证券研究报告/行业点评报告 2025 年 05 月 17 日 评级: 增持(维持) | 增持(维持) 评级: | | 重点公司基本状况 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 简称 | 股价 | | | EPS | | | | | PE | | | 评级 | | 分析师:戴志锋 | | (元) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | | 执业证书编号:S0740517030004 | 江苏银行 | 10.73 | 1.69 | 1.65 | 1.91 | 2.03 | 2.15 | 6.35 | 6.50 | 5.62 | 5.29 | 4.98 | 买入 | | | 渝农商行 | 7.27 | 0.94 | 0.99 | 1.07 ...
银行周报(0505-0511):增量政策稳定预期,板块配置价值凸显
Tai Ping Yang· 2025-05-16 01:15
◼ 子行业评级 国有银行 看好 股份制银行 看好 区域性银行 看好 ◼ 推荐公司及评级 中信银行 增持 招商银行 买入 重庆银行 增持 渝农商行 买入 2025 年 05 月 15 日 行业周报 看好/维持 银行 银行 银行周报(0505-0511):增量政策稳定预期,板块配置价值凸显 ◼ 走势比较 (20%) (8%) 4% 16% 28% 40% 24/5/15 24/7/26 24/10/6 24/12/17 25/2/27 25/5/10 相关研究报告 <<重庆银行 2024 年年报及 2025 年一 季报点评:息差拖累边际缓解,资产 质量整体改善>>--2025-04-27 <<青岛银行 2024 年年报点评:规模 效益双增,高成长性持续展现>>-- 2025-04-27 证券分析师:夏芈卬 电话:010-88695119 E-MAIL:xiama@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号:S1190523030003 研究助理:王子钦 E-MAIL:wangziqin@tpyzq.com 一般证券业务登记编号:S1190124010010 报告摘要 行情回顾:1)大盘方面,本周上证指数、沪深 300 指 ...
一季度城农商行业绩现“冰火两重天”:江苏银行高歌猛进,厦门银行艰难前行
Tai Mei Ti A P P· 2025-05-15 12:57
Core Viewpoint - The performance of the banking industry in Q1 2025 is mixed, with some banks showing strong growth while others face significant challenges, particularly in revenue and profit generation [1][13]. Summary by Category City Commercial Banks - Jiangsu Bank leads in operating income with 22.304 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.21%, and a net profit of 9.78 billion yuan, up 8.16% [1][3]. - Qingdao Bank shows a remarkable revenue growth of 9.69% and a net profit increase of 16.42%, indicating strong market performance [1][3]. - Xiamen Bank struggles with only 1.214 billion yuan in revenue, down 18.42%, and a net profit of 645 million yuan, down 14.21%, reflecting significant operational pressure [1][3][9]. Rural Commercial Banks - Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank reports the highest operating income at 7.224 billion yuan, with a net profit of 3.745 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 6.25% [1][3]. - Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank faces challenges with a revenue decline of 7.41% and a net profit growth of only 0.34%, indicating insufficient growth momentum [1][3][10]. Strategic Developments - Jiangsu Bank's strategic focus on optimizing asset allocation and enhancing retail and non-interest income has contributed to its strong performance [4][5]. - Qingdao Bank emphasizes a refined strategy targeting three major customer groups and six key industries, enhancing its product offerings and revenue generation [5][6]. Challenges Faced - Xiamen Bank's revenue decline is attributed to a significant drop in core income sources, particularly in commission and fee-related businesses, alongside a decrease in investment income [9][10]. - The overall banking sector faces pressure from narrowing net interest margins and a decline in non-interest income due to market volatility and high base effects from 2024 [13][14].
银行配置策略报告系列一:四维度再看当下银行配置机会-20250515
Huachuang Securities· 2025-05-15 06:11
银行业策略深度报告 四维度再看当下银行配置机会 推荐(维持) ——银行配置策略报告系列一 前言: 行业研究 银行 2025 年 05 月 15 日 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师:林宛慧 邮箱:linwanhui@hcyjs.com 执业编号:S0360524110001 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 42 | 0.01 | | 总市值(亿元) | 143,218.58 | 14.35 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 98,807.18 | 12.44 | 相对指数表现 华创证券研究所 证券分析师:贾靖 邮箱:jiajing@hcyjs.com 执业编号:S0360523040004 证券分析师:徐康 电话:021-20572556 邮箱:xukang@hcyjs.com 执业编号:S0360518060005 2025-05-11 《银行业重大事项点评:货币政策再发力,降成 本优结构主线延续——评 507 国新办发布会》 2025-05-09 《华创金融|红利资产 4 月报:险资 FVOCI 类资 产占比提升,银行平均股息率仍有 4. ...
智通港股52周新高、新低统计|5月14日
智通财经网· 2025-05-14 08:41
智通财经APP获悉,截止5月14日收盘,有78只股票创52周新高,其中长安仁恒(08139)、恒昌集团国际 (01421)、乐华娱乐(02306)创高率位于前3位,分别为65.38%、42.59%、38.52%。 52周新高排行 | 股票名称 | 收盘价 | 最高价 | | 创高率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 长安仁恒(08139) | 1.370 | 2.580 | 65.38% | | | 恒昌集团国际(01421) | 0.690 | 0.770 | 42.59% | | | 乐华娱乐(02306) | 1.510 | 1.690 | 38.52% | | | XL二南CO(07711) | 125.000 | 128.900 | 27.75% | | | XL二南CO-U | 15.960 | 16.470 | 26.89% | | | (09711) | | | | | | 麦迪森控股(08057) | 0.135 | 0.200 | 25.00% | | | 杜甫酒业集团(00986) | 0.139 | 0.168 | 17.48% | | | XL二 ...
银行股,又成“显眼包”!
第一财经· 2025-05-14 03:28
"五一"假期前后,此前持续坚挺的银行股一度因一季报表现低于市场预期陷入回调,但短暂调整后再 度持续上扬。Wind数据显示,最近5个交易日,银行板块累计上涨5.76%,仅次于国防军工板块,同 期上证指数上涨1.77%。13日,中证银行指数最高触及7631.65高点,收于7629.55点,创下2018年2 月以来新高。 2025.05. 14 本文字数:2923,阅读时长大约5分钟 作者 | 第一财经 亓宁 经过短暂调整的银行股依然坚挺,5月13日再度逆势上行。截至13日收盘,中证银行指数涨1.53%报 7629.55点,创2018年2月以来新高,个股全线飘红,多只个股触及历史新高。 综合机构观点,在利率下行通道中,银行股的红利吸引力仍在。近期降准降息齐落地、金融资产投资 公司(AIC)设立主体扩围、科技创新债券发行主体扩容,叠加监管积极引导险资入市、公募基金从 重规模向重回报转变等,银行股迎来多重利好支撑。 关于最新一揽子金融货币政策对银行的影响,多位受访的银行研究人士称息差影响偏中性,预计负债 端同步调整可有效对冲。不过,银行业的经营压力短期内仍没有明显缓解,A股上市银行今年一季度 净利润降幅较上年同期扩大, ...
银行股连创新高,低利率环境考验非息收入创造能力
Di Yi Cai Jing Zi Xun· 2025-05-13 12:56
关于最新一揽子金融货币政策对银行的影响,多位受访的银行研究人士称息差影响偏中性,预计负债端 同步调整可有效对冲。不过,银行业的经营压力短期内仍没有明显缓解,A股上市银行今年一季度净利 润降幅较上年同期扩大,净息差进一步收窄,银行间业绩分化明显。 安永大中华区金融服务首席合伙人忻怡表示,当前的低利率环境预计还将持续一段时间,面对低利率、 低息差周期及宏观环境不确定性加大,非息收入的拓展能力对银行经营发展的支撑将越来越重要。 银行股又成"显眼包" 5月13日,A股市场高开回落,三大指数涨跌不一,个股跌多涨少,银行板块则继续逆势上涨,全天涨 超1.5%,在31个申万一级行业中领涨,个股全线飘红。 经过短暂调整的银行股依然坚挺,5月13日再度逆势上行。截至13日收盘,中证银行指数涨1.53%报 7629.55点,创2018年2月以来新高,个股全线飘红,多只个股触及历史新高。 "五一"假期前后,此前持续坚挺的银行股一度因一季报表现低于市场预期陷入回调,但短暂调整后再度 持续上扬。Wind数据显示,最近5个交易日,银行板块累计上涨5.76%,仅次于国防军工板块,同期上 证指数上涨1.77%。13日,中证银行指数最高触及7 ...