Core Viewpoint - The Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank (渝农商行) is facing regulatory scrutiny due to the prolonged acting roles of its current president, Sui Jun, as both chairman and board secretary, which exceeds the allowed time frame set by regulatory guidelines [1][2][4]. Group 1: Leadership Changes - Sui Jun has been acting as chairman and legal representative since October 17, 2024, for over 9 months, and has been acting as board secretary since January 18, 2025, for over 6 months [1][2]. - The previous chairman, Xie Wenhui, resigned due to work relocation, effective from the date of his resignation letter submission [2]. - Zhang Peizong, the former board secretary, also resigned due to work relocation, effective January 17, 2025 [3]. Group 2: Regulatory Compliance - According to the revised Administrative Licensing Measures for Chinese Commercial Banks, acting roles should not exceed 6 months, and a qualified individual must be appointed within this timeframe [2]. - The bank is required to report to the regulatory authority within 3 days of appointing an acting official, and failure to comply may result in regulatory action [1][2]. Group 3: Future Appointments - The bank's board has proposed Liu Xiaojun as a candidate for executive director and chairman, pending approval from the shareholders' meeting and regulatory authority [4]. - As of now, Sui Jun continues to hold both the chairman and board secretary roles, with no confirmation of Liu Xiaojun's qualifications being approved by the regulatory authority [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the banking sector, consistent with the previous rating [6]. Core Insights - The impact of the current "anti-involution" trend on credit is expected to be small overall, but slightly greater than the effects observed during the supply-side reform period from 2015 to 2017 [11][12]. - Credit management is a crucial tool for banks in responding to supply-side reforms, primarily through reducing credit exposure to overcapacity industries and refining client lists to limit loan amounts [12][13]. - The report suggests that the current banking environment is facing a credit slowdown, which may amplify the impact of "anti-involution" on credit growth [13]. Summary by Sections Investment Suggestions - The report recommends focusing on banks such as Xiamen Bank, Chongqing Bank, Yucheng Rural Commercial Bank, Shanghai Bank, and Shanghai Agricultural Bank, as well as major state-owned banks [2][57]. Historical Context and Data Analysis - During the supply-side reform period, the year-on-year growth rates of RMB credit were 14%, 13.5%, and 13.5% from 2015 to 2017, with social financing growth rates of 12.5%, 12.6%, and 14.8% respectively, indicating limited impact on credit pulses [12][13]. - The analysis shows that the impact of supply-side reform on credit was less than 1%, with a more significant effect on joint-stock banks compared to state-owned banks [18][22]. Credit Management and Asset Quality - Credit management during the supply-side reform led to a notable increase in non-performing loan (NPL) ratios in overcapacity industries, with a significant rise in overall NPL ratios for listed banks in the second half of 2016 [13][32]. - The report indicates that the "anti-involution" trend may lead to a similar, albeit slightly larger, impact on credit quality compared to the previous reforms, particularly affecting private enterprises more than state-owned ones [11][45]. Industry Trends and Projections - The report highlights that the proportion of private enterprises in the affected industries has increased compared to the supply-side reform period, suggesting that credit control measures may disproportionately impact these firms [45]. - It notes that the current banking sector is experiencing a degree of asset scarcity, which could further exacerbate the effects of credit management policies [45][46].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the banking industry [6] Core Insights - Active equity funds have increased their holdings in A-share banks, with a total of 4.90% of their heavy positions in the banking sector as of Q2 2025, up by 1.14 percentage points from Q1 2025 [10][12] - Passive funds have also seen an increase, with their heavy positions in A-share banks rising to 11.15%, an increase of 2.02 percentage points [10][19] - The report highlights a preference for low-valuation joint-stock banks and high-growth city commercial banks among active funds [12] Summary by Sections Active Equity Funds - As of Q2 2025, active equity funds held 4.90% of their heavy positions in banks, with a total of 49.17 billion shares, an increase of 6.64 billion shares from Q1 2025 [10][12] - The market value of these holdings reached 640.78 billion yuan, up by 135.08 billion yuan [10][12] - The top five stocks favored by active funds include China Merchants Bank (1.01%), Jiangsu Bank (0.54%), Ningbo Bank (0.51%), Hangzhou Bank (0.45%), and Chengdu Bank (0.41%) [10][12] Passive Equity Funds - Passive funds increased their holdings to 71.47 billion shares, a rise of 16.23 billion shares from Q1 2025 [10][19] - The market value of these holdings reached 1,332.61 billion yuan, an increase of 288.32 billion yuan [10][19] - Key stocks with significant inflows include China Merchants Bank and Industrial Bank, while Bank of China and Qingdao Bank saw reductions in holdings [10][19] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on two main investment lines: 1. High-dividend banks in anticipation of a potential reduction in insurance premium rates, recommending stocks like China Construction Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank [10][12] 2. Strong-performing small and medium-sized banks, with recommendations for Industrial Bank, CITIC Bank, Nanjing Bank, Jiangsu Bank, and Hangzhou Bank [10][12]

Core Viewpoint - 2025 is a pivotal year for the Chinese banking industry, marked by unprecedented dividend distributions and a volatile market performance for bank stocks, with a mid-year dividend total exceeding 200 billion yuan [2][3]. Dividend Distribution - The banking sector led the market in dividend payouts, with a total cash dividend of 420.63 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) leading at 109.77 billion yuan [3]. - State-owned banks generally offered dividend yields exceeding 4%, with China Construction Bank achieving a yield of 4.44%, significantly higher than the 10-year government bond yield [3]. Market Performance - The banking sector recorded a 13.1% increase in stock prices in the first half of 2025, ranking second among all industries, with 41 out of 42 bank stocks rising [5]. - The stock prices of major state-owned banks reached historical highs by the end of June, reflecting the long-term attractiveness of high-dividend assets [4]. Investment Dynamics - The surge in bank stock prices was driven by three main factors: the appeal of low valuations and high dividends in a weak global economic recovery, supportive policy expectations, and the ongoing popularity of dividend-paying assets [6]. - Institutional ownership in ICBC increased from 35% to 38% following the announcement of its dividend plan, indicating strong investor interest [4]. Future Outlook - The performance of bank stocks in the second half of 2025 will depend on the balance between policy measures and economic resilience, with expectations of a "shifting upward" trend in stock prices [10]. - Analysts suggest that state-owned banks will continue to be stable investments due to their large customer bases and low non-performing loan ratios, while smaller banks may need to focus on niche business areas to achieve valuation premiums [11]. Stock Recommendations - Specific banks are highlighted for their strong potential: - Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, benefiting from management reforms, with a stock price increase of 34.89% [11]. - Industrial Bank, recognized for its growth in investment banking and green finance [12]. - Agricultural Bank of China, noted for its high dividend yield of 5.2% and low deposit costs [12]. Conclusion - The banking sector in 2025 illustrates that while dividends can enhance valuations, they cannot replace strong fundamentals. Only banks with a combination of high dividend safety, regional economic resilience, and wealth management transformation will thrive amid cyclical fluctuations [13].

Group 1 - The core index of the China Securities Index for Hong Kong-listed tradable mainland banks (HKT Mainland Banks, H11145) opened high and rose, reporting 1245.77 points [1] - The HKT Mainland Banks index has increased by 1.56% in the past month, 16.29% in the past three months, and 22.87% year-to-date [1] - The index series includes three indices: HKT Hong Kong Real Estate, HKT Mainland Consumption, and HKT Mainland Banks, reflecting the overall performance of related theme securities in the Hong Kong securities market [1] Group 2 - The top ten weights in the HKT Mainland Banks index are: China Construction Bank (31.83%), Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (23.51%), Bank of China (17.4%), China Merchants Bank (10.52%), Agricultural Bank of China (7.24%), CITIC Bank (3.48%), Postal Savings Bank of China (2.55%), Minsheng Bank (1.52%), Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank (0.75%), and China Everbright Bank (0.66%) [1] - The market segment of the HKT Mainland Banks index is entirely represented by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with a 100.00% share [1] Group 3 - The financial sector accounts for 100.00% of the industry represented in the HKT Mainland Banks index sample [2] - The index sample is adjusted every six months, with adjustments implemented on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December [2] - Weight factors are generally fixed until the next scheduled adjustment, with temporary adjustments made under special circumstances [2]

Core Insights - The AI Fund Huatai-PineBridge Dividend Smart Selection Mixed Fund A (021515) reported a profit of 675,500 yuan for Q2 2025, with a weighted average profit per fund share of 0.0654 yuan [3] - The fund's net asset value (NAV) growth rate for the reporting period was 6.4%, and as of the end of Q2, the fund size was 11.4554 million yuan [3] - The fund manager indicated a high position operation throughout the reporting period, with a focus on high-dividend Hong Kong stocks and low-volatility sectors like banking and transportation [3] Fund Performance - As of July 18, the fund's three-month cumulative NAV growth rate was 10.38%, ranking 325 out of 615 comparable funds [4] - The six-month cumulative NAV growth rate was 12.76%, ranking 235 out of 615 comparable funds [4] - The fund's Sharpe ratio since inception was 0.1788 as of June 27 [8] Risk Metrics - The maximum drawdown since inception was 8.18%, with the largest quarterly drawdown occurring in Q2 2025 at 7.8% [9] - The average stock position since inception was 81.35%, compared to the peer average of 83.26%, with a peak stock position of 93.31% at the end of H1 2025 [12] Portfolio Composition - As of the end of Q2 2025, the fund's top holdings included Agricultural Bank of China, China Merchants Bank, China Construction Bank, Bank of China, Gree Electric Appliances, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Mobile, Anhui Wanan Highway, Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank, and Citic Bank [16]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [8] Core Viewpoints - As of Q2 2025, institutional holdings in bank stocks have increased, primarily driven by passive investments, with limited growth in active public fund holdings. The overall chip structure remains healthy, with shares of state-owned banks and city commercial banks favored due to their low valuations or strong fundamentals [1][2] - The report suggests a continued positive outlook for the banking sector, emphasizing a long-term bullish trend rather than a mid-cycle correction. It recommends focusing on state-owned banks in 2024 and improving banks in economically developed regions in 2025, while also highlighting value-oriented banks with state-owned enterprise backgrounds in the Hong Kong market [5][6] Summary by Sections Overall Holdings - By the end of Q2 2025, the proportion of bank stocks held by public funds and northbound funds increased by 8.5% compared to Q1 2025, with a 0.7 percentage point rise in the proportion of free-floating shares. The main contributors to this increase were passive funds, while active public funds showed limited growth [1] - The holdings of small and medium-sized banks increased, with state-owned banks, joint-stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks seeing respective increases of 0.1, 1.2, 1.0, and 0.6 percentage points in their institutional holdings [1] Individual Bank Performance - The banks with the largest increases in institutional holdings include Minsheng, CITIC, Ping An, Chongqing, and Yunnan Agricultural Bank, with respective increases in the proportion of free-floating shares of 3.2, 2.9, 2.7, 2.6, and 2.6 percentage points [2] Northbound Funds - Northbound funds maintained stable holdings, with a 2.3% increase in the number of shares held by the end of Q2 2025. The proportion of holdings in state-owned banks and joint-stock banks increased, while rural commercial banks experienced a notable outflow [3] Passive Public Funds - Passive holdings continued to rise, with a 39.0% increase in the number of bank stocks held by index funds by the end of Q2 2025, driven by index expansions and weight adjustments [4] Active Public Funds - Active public fund holdings increased by 6.3%, with a slight rise in the proportion of free-floating shares. However, the overall growth was below expectations, with significant increases in holdings of low-valuation or fundamentally strong joint-stock banks and city commercial banks [5]

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Index for Hong Kong, Shanghai, and Shenzhen Dividend Growth Low Volatility Index (SHS Dividend Growth LV) has shown positive performance trends, with a 1.64% increase over the past month, 9.07% over the past three months, and an 8.71% increase year-to-date [1]. Group 1: Index Performance - The SHS Dividend Growth LV Index opened lower but closed higher, down 0.23% at 7477.8 points with a trading volume of 37.679 billion yuan [1]. - The index is composed of 100 securities selected from the mainland and Hong Kong markets, focusing on companies with continuous cash dividends, stable profit growth, and low volatility [1]. Group 2: Index Holdings - The top ten holdings in the SHS Dividend Growth LV Index include major banks such as China Construction Bank (2.5%), Postal Savings Bank (2.14%), and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (1.85%) [1]. - The index's market allocation shows that the Shanghai Stock Exchange accounts for 55.01%, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange for 24.53%, and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange for 20.46% [2]. Group 3: Sector Allocation - The sector distribution of the index indicates that the financial sector holds the largest share at 45.02%, followed by industrial (19.67%) and healthcare (7.71%) sectors [2]. - Other sectors represented include consumer discretionary (7.22%), communication services (6.68%), utilities (5.44%), materials (4.59%), energy (1.96%), and consumer staples (1.70%) [2]. Group 4: Index Adjustment and Fund Tracking - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with changes implemented on the next trading day following the second Friday of June and December [2]. - Public funds tracking the SHS Dividend Growth LV Index include several funds managed by Invesco Great Wall [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the banking sector [2] Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery in credit growth, with government bonds remaining a primary support item. In June, social financing increased by 900.8 billion yuan year-on-year, with a total of 4.2 trillion yuan added, surpassing market expectations [9][10] - The structure of social financing shows a significant increase in credit, with a notable rise in government bond issuance, which reached 1.3508 trillion yuan in June, up 503.2 billion yuan year-on-year [10][12] Summary by Sections Social Financing Growth - In June, social financing increased by 900.8 billion yuan compared to the same month last year, with a total of 4.2 trillion yuan added, exceeding consensus expectations. The year-on-year growth rate of social financing reached 8.9%, a 0.2 percentage point increase from May [9][10] Credit Situation - New loans in June amounted to 2.24 trillion yuan, an increase of 110 billion yuan year-on-year, which is higher than market expectations. The year-on-year growth rate of credit balance was 7.1%, with the growth rate remaining stable compared to the previous month [12][13] - The credit structure indicates that various types of general loans (excluding bills) have increased year-on-year, while the characteristics of bill financing have weakened. Specifically, corporate short-term loans saw a significant increase [13][18] Liquidity and Deposit Situation - In June, M1 growth rate significantly increased, and the gap between M2 and M1 narrowed. M0, M1, and M2 grew by 12.0%, 4.6%, and 8.3% year-on-year, respectively [6][12] - The total increase in RMB deposits in June was 3.21 trillion yuan, which is 750 billion yuan more than the same period last year, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.3% [6][12] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the banking sector, particularly regional banks with strong certainty and advantages, such as Jiangsu Bank and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank. It also highlights the importance of high dividend stability in large banks [6][12]

Core Viewpoint - Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank has received approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission for its securities investment fund custody qualification, marking it as the first financial institution to obtain this qualification in 2023 and the 37th commercial bank overall [1][2]. Group 1: Fund Custodian Expansion - The bank will strictly adhere to regulations and the approval document to conduct securities investment fund custody business, ensuring the integrity and independence of fund assets while protecting the legal rights of fund shareholders [3]. - As of May, there are 68 financial institutions listed as securities investment fund custodians, with commercial banks accounting for over 52% of this group [3]. - Among the qualified commercial banks, state-owned banks and national joint-stock banks dominate, with only a few rural commercial banks like Guangzhou Rural Commercial Bank and Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank having custody qualifications [3]. Group 2: Positive Impacts on Banking Operations - Obtaining the fund custody license can expand the bank's intermediary business income, enhancing revenue diversification and risk resilience through fees from custody and account services [4]. - The custody qualification can improve customer loyalty and comprehensive financial service capabilities, allowing the bank to serve various asset management institutions and connect with high-net-worth and institutional clients [4]. - The custody business can lead to increased fund settlement and retention, optimizing the bank's asset-liability structure and enhancing overall profitability [4]. Group 3: Quality Enhancement in Business Development - Commercial banks must enhance their operational quality in fund custody, addressing issues such as compliance and internal controls, as evidenced by recent regulatory warnings against certain banks [5]. - There is a need for banks to invest in IT systems to support custody operations, including valuation and clearing systems, to ensure compliance and operational stability [5]. - Banks should focus on professional talent development, IT infrastructure improvement, risk management, and building cooperative relationships with fund companies to enhance the quality of custody services [6].