奇富科技 (QFIN US/3660 HK) 1Q25：利润合预期，质量小幅波动 | 华泰研究 | | | 季报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 5 月 | 21 日│美国/中国香港 | 其他多元金融 | 奇富科技 1Q25 业绩：收入 46.9 亿元（环比/同比：+4.7/+12.9%），归母净 利润 18.0 亿元（环比/同比：-6.1/+54.6%）。利润基本符合我们此前 17.5 亿元的预期，处于公司指引区间 17.5-18.5 亿元的中枢。风险指标略有上升， C-M2 比率升至 0.6%（4Q24：0.57%），但仍属健康水平，低于 1Q21-4Q24 的均值 0.62%。拨备覆盖率进一步升至 666%（4Q24：617%），表明盈利 质量较高。放款量 889 亿元，环比略降 1.1%，在有春节假期的情况下能够 几乎持平，可能反映了需求略有回暖。行业内仍在评估"助贷新规"的影响， 新规将于 10 月 1 日起施行，建议持续关注。公司是行业内体量较大的平台， 或仍将采取谨慎的经营策略，预计 25 年放款量温和增长，基于高质量盈利 和较高的股东回报（截至 ...

Core Viewpoint - CICC has raised the profit forecast for Qifu Technology-S (03660) for 2025 and 2026 by 2% and 4% respectively, due to optimized funding/credit costs and higher-than-expected loan disbursement in Q1 2025 [1] Financial Performance - Qifu Technology's Q1 2025 revenue increased by 13% year-on-year and 5% quarter-on-quarter to 4.69 billion yuan, while non-GAAP net profit rose by 60% year-on-year but decreased by 2% quarter-on-quarter to 1.93 billion yuan, exceeding previous expectations [2] - The company’s net service fee rate was approximately 5.6%, slightly down from 5.96% in Q4 2024, attributed to a decrease in average funding costs and stable asset quality [4] Loan Disbursement and Customer Acquisition - In Q1 2025, the company optimized customer acquisition channels, adding 7 embedded finance partners, with loan disbursement increasing by 16% year-on-year to 88.9 billion yuan, although the quarter-on-quarter growth rate slightly declined due to seasonal factors [3] - The company expects loan disbursement to grow by 5%-10% year-on-year in 2025, maintaining previous forecasts [3] Shareholder Returns - The company maintains a semi-annual dividend policy, planning to distribute cash dividends of $0.6 and $0.7 per ADS for the first and second halves of 2024 respectively [5] - As of May 19, 2025, the company has repurchased 9.1 million ADS for approximately $404.5 million, with an expected total repurchase amount of no less than $680 million for 2025 [5] Industry Development - The introduction of the "Loan Assistance New Regulations" on April 1 aims to enhance the regulatory framework of the industry, potentially eliminating unreasonable pricing and charging behaviors, which may benefit compliant and well-operating institutions like Qifu Technology [6]

｜2025年5月21日星期三｜ NO.1 宁德时代港股上市首日涨超16% 5月20日，宁德时代（HK03750，股价306.20港元）正式在港交所挂牌上市。截至收盘，宁德时代报收306.20港元/股，较263港元的发售价涨 幅达到16.43%。在上市仪式现场，宁德时代董事长、CEO曾毓群发言表示，全球零碳交通是一个万亿元级的市场，正在爆发。当前全球交通 体系正在重构，新能源汽车以及换电生态正进入爆发阶段，低空经济、电动船舶等领域方兴未艾。 点评：宁德时代在港交所的成功上市，不仅赢得了资本市场的认可，也为其在全球零碳交通领域的发展注入了新动力。 NO.2 快驴科技递表港交所 5月19日，山东快驴科技发展股份有限公司（以下简称快驴科技）正式向港交所主板递交上市申请。该公司主要为轻型电动车用户、大型商业 物流配送服务商和城市绿色共享出行用户提供服务。根据弗若斯特沙利文的数据，按2024年收入计算，快驴科技在中国内地短距离绿色出行 科技综合服务市场占有2.2%的份额。 点评：寻求上市有望为快驴科技带来更多资本支持，推动其业务扩张和技术创新，进一步巩固其在绿色出行领域的领先地位。 NO.3 奇富科技一季度营收同比增长近 ...

Core Insights - QFIN Technology reported its Q1 2025 financial results, demonstrating a strong performance driven by AI innovations and a commitment to prudent management strategies in a complex market environment [1] - The company is advancing its "AI + Finance" strategy, aiming to create the first intelligent system that empowers core lending operations, which has already begun to enhance business processes and efficiency [1][2] Financial Performance - As of the end of Q1, QFIN Technology connected with 163 financial institutions, providing digital credit services to over 58 million credit users, with a 6% year-on-year increase in new credit users and a 15.8% increase in loan facilitation volume [1] AI-Driven Innovations - The launch of the lending intelligent system integrates various smart modules covering data analysis, operations, compliance, risk strategies, and financial reconciliation, significantly transforming the company's business model [2] - The AI marketing module improved the conversion rate from new credit users to new loan users by 33% year-on-year [2] - The AI compliance module reduced the time required for regulatory document interpretation from 40 hours to 2 hours, with accuracy improving from 68% to 99.2% [2] Risk Control Enhancements - QFIN Technology has developed end-to-end risk control capabilities, achieving an AUC improvement to 0.64 through reinforcement learning on historical decision logs [3] - The user feature verification accuracy reached over 95% through advanced data mining capabilities [3] Strategic Partnerships and Growth - QFIN Technology's subsidiary, QFIN Digital Technology, signed contracts with three mid-to-large city commercial banks, with a 144% year-on-year increase in business scale [4] - The launch of the FocusPRO2.0 platform for digital inclusive credit solutions has led to rapid loan disbursement and exceeded risk control expectations [4] Social Responsibility Initiatives - The company launched the "QFIN Support Program" to assist rural revitalization through interest-free loans for small businesses and farmers, contributing to local economic development [6] - QFIN Technology has been recognized for its efforts in promoting financial technology development and social responsibility, with its CEO participating in high-level forums to discuss opportunities in AI and industry upgrades [6] Future Outlook - The CEO emphasized that AI technology is a core support for the generational leap in fintech, positioning the lending intelligent system as a new growth engine for long-term high-quality development [7] - The intelligent system is expected to facilitate the transition of traditional banks to smart banks, enhancing user experience and commercial efficiency [7]

Company Overview - Qifu Technology is a leading AI-empowered credit-tech platform in China with 584 million cumulative users with approved credit lines[13, 27] - The company has established partnerships with 163 financial institutions[13, 20] - Loan facilitation volume in 1Q25 reached RMB 889 billion, representing a 158% year-over-year increase[13] - Non-GAAP net income in 1Q25 was RMB 1926 million, a 599% year-over-year increase[13] - The company has repurchased US$905 million worth of ADSs cumulatively, leading to a 210% share count reduction[15] Financial Performance - Total net revenue for 1Q25 was RMB 4691 million[62] - Non-GAAP net income for 1Q25 was RMB 1926 million[64] - Platform services contributed 531% to the loan facilitation volume in 1Q25[57] - Platform services contributed 581% to the outstanding loan balance in 1Q25[59] Risk Management - The company maintains robust risk performance, as indicated by delinquency and collection rates[67, 68, 69]

User Growth and Engagement - As of March 31, 2025, the platform has connected with 163 financial institution partners and 268.2 million consumers with potential credit needs, an increase of 11.1% from 241.4 million a year ago[5] - The number of users with approved credit limits reached 58.4 million, up 11.6% from 52.3 million as of March 31, 2024[5] Loan Performance - The total loan volume facilitated reached RMB 88,883 million, a 15.8% increase from RMB 76,784 million in the same period last year[5] - The total outstanding loan balance was RMB 140,273 million, reflecting a 5.5% increase from RMB 132,964 million as of March 31, 2024[5] - The 90-day+ delinquency rate for loans was 2.02% as of March 31, 2025[5] - The first-day overdue rate was 5.0%, while the 30-day recovery rate was 88.1%, indicating stable risk performance despite macroeconomic fluctuations[10] - The weighted average contract term for loans initiated by financial institutions was approximately 10.17 months, slightly up from 10.10 months in the same period last year[5] Financial Performance - Total net revenue for the first quarter was RMB 4,690.7 million (USD 646.4 million), compared to RMB 4,482.3 million in the previous quarter[10] - Net profit for the first quarter was RMB 1,796.6 million (USD 247.6 million), down from RMB 1,912.7 million in the previous quarter[10] - Non-GAAP net profit was RMB 1,926.2 million (USD 265.4 million), compared to RMB 1,972.4 million in the previous quarter[10] - The company reported a diluted net income per American Depositary Share (ADS) of RMB 12.62 (USD 1.74), down from RMB 13.24 in the previous quarter[10] - Total revenue for Q1 2025 reached RMB 4.69 billion (USD 646.4 million), an increase from RMB 4.15 billion in Q1 2024 and RMB 4.48 billion in the previous quarter[13] - Net profit under non-GAAP was RMB 1.93 billion (USD 272.1 million), compared to RMB 1.41 billion in Q1 2024 and RMB 1.95 billion in the previous quarter[18] Operating Costs and Profitability - Operating costs totaled RMB 2.72 billion (USD 374.3 million), a decrease from RMB 2.79 billion in Q1 2024 and an increase from RMB 2.59 billion in the previous quarter[15] - Operating profit margin was 42.1%, with a non-GAAP operating profit margin of 44.9%[19] - The company reported a net profit attributable to the company of RMB 1,800.2 million ($248.1 million), compared to RMB 1,164.3 million in the same period of 2024[20] Future Outlook and Investments - The company plans to continue investing in AI technology to enhance its credit services and improve operational efficiency[10] - The company plans to generate net profit of RMB 1.65 billion to RMB 1.75 billion for Q2 2025, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 24% to 31%[30] - The company plans to continue expanding its market presence and investing in new technologies to drive future growth[45] Share Repurchase and Financing - The board approved a share repurchase plan allowing the company to repurchase up to $450 million worth of American Depositary Shares or Class A ordinary shares[28] - The company issued USD 690 million in convertible notes to support its share repurchase plan, enhancing its financial foundation[18] - The company issued $690 million of convertible preferred notes due in 2030, with plans to use the net proceeds for additional share repurchases[29] Cash Flow and Assets - The company’s cash and cash equivalents increased to RMB 8,578,822 thousand as of March 31, 2025, up from RMB 4,452,416 thousand as of December 31, 2024, representing a growth of 93.5%[43] - The company reported a total asset value of RMB 55,627,168 thousand as of March 31, 2025, equivalent to approximately USD 7,665,629 thousand[43] - Operating cash flow for the three months ended March 31, 2025, was RMB 2,805,685, an increase of 43.4% compared to RMB 1,958,267 in 2024[48] Liabilities and Equity - Total liabilities increased to RMB 32,511,226 thousand as of March 31, 2025, compared to RMB 23,886,399 thousand as of December 31, 2024, indicating a rise of 36.5%[44] - The company’s equity totalled RMB 23,115,942 thousand as of March 31, 2025, down from RMB 24,246,219 thousand as of December 31, 2024, showing a decrease of 4.7%[44] - The company’s non-current liabilities surged to RMB 16,133,988 thousand as of March 31, 2025, from RMB 6,414,190 thousand as of December 31, 2024, reflecting a significant increase of 150.5%[44] Non-GAAP Financial Measures - The company emphasizes the importance of non-GAAP financial measures to enhance understanding of past performance and future outlook, despite potential differences in calculation methods compared to other companies[39] - The company’s financial data should be viewed as supplementary to GAAP results, not as a substitute or superior alternative[39] - The company’s net profit margin, calculated using non-GAAP measures, is expected to provide insights into operational performance trends, excluding stock-based compensation expenses[39] Comprehensive Income - The company reported a total comprehensive income of RMB 1,784,813 for the three months ended March 31, 2025, compared to RMB 1,166,297 in 2024, marking a significant increase[49] - Non-GAAP net profit for the three months ended March 31, 2025, was RMB 1,929,789, up from RMB 1,208,932 in 2024, indicating a growth of 59.5%[51] Earnings Per Share - Basic earnings per share for ordinary shares increased to RMB 6.41 in 2025 from RMB 3.73 in 2024, reflecting a growth of 71.5%[46] - The diluted earnings per American Depositary Share under GAAP was RMB 12.62 ($1.74)[21] - The diluted non-GAAP earnings per American Depositary Share was RMB 13.53 ($1.86)[22]

Core Viewpoint - The internet financial information service industry in China is experiencing rapid growth driven by the high-quality development of the securities market and technological innovation, with a projected market size increase from 10.07 billion yuan in 2015 to 63.52 billion yuan in 2024, representing a compound annual growth rate of 22.71% [2][3]. Industry Overview - The internet financial information service industry has emerged alongside the development of the internet, effectively utilizing its convenience and speed to provide investors with enhanced information services. The industry can be segmented into three categories: financial information terminal services, value-added information services, and online financial information services [3]. - Despite the rapid growth and diversification of services, the industry remains relatively small compared to its domestic potential and the more mature international market, indicating significant growth opportunities [3]. Development History - The internet financial sector in China began to take shape before 2005, with traditional financial institutions initially moving their operations online. The introduction of e-commerce in 1993 marked the start of a fully electronic business era, prompting banks to innovate and adapt to the internet [5]. - From 2005 to 2012, the industry saw the emergence of third-party payment systems, P2P lending, and crowdfunding, marking a shift from mere technological integration to actual business models [6]. - The year 2013 is recognized as the starting point of rapid growth for internet finance in China, highlighted by the launch of "Yu'ebao," which led to the maturation of third-party payments and explosive growth in P2P lending [6]. Relevant Policies - The Chinese government has implemented various policies to support the healthy development of the internet financial information service industry. For instance, the State Council issued guidelines in March 2025 to enhance data security and promote technological innovation in the financial sector [8][9]. - In April 2025, a plan was introduced to accelerate the construction of a financial service system that aligns with technological innovation, aiming to improve the quality and efficiency of financial services [8][9]. Industry Chain - The internet financial information service industry chain has matured, encompassing areas such as financial information, third-party payments, and online lending. The upstream includes data providers, banks, and individual funders, while the downstream consists of individual consumers, merchants, and enterprises [10]. - The relationship between merchants and third-party payment institutions is crucial, as the attractiveness and conversion rates of merchants significantly influence transaction volumes [10].

Core Insights - Investors in the Technology Services sector may consider Qifu Technology, Inc. (QFIN) and Symbotic Inc. (SYM) for potential value opportunities [1] Valuation Metrics - QFIN has a forward P/E ratio of 6.38, significantly lower than SYM's forward P/E of 133.59 [5] - The PEG ratio for QFIN is 0.57, indicating a favorable valuation relative to its expected earnings growth, while SYM's PEG ratio is 4.45 [5] - QFIN's P/B ratio stands at 2.10, compared to SYM's P/B of 37.63, suggesting QFIN is more reasonably valued based on its book value [6] Analyst Outlook - QFIN currently holds a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy), reflecting a positive earnings estimate revision trend, while SYM has a Zacks Rank of 5 (Strong Sell) [3] - The improving earnings outlook for QFIN positions it as a superior value option compared to SYM [7] Value Grades - QFIN has been assigned a Value grade of A, indicating strong undervaluation metrics, whereas SYM has a Value grade of F, suggesting it is overvalued [6]

Core Viewpoint - Qifu Technology, Inc. (QFIN) has demonstrated exceptional stock performance, significantly outperforming its industry and competitors over the past year and six months, driven by strong financial metrics and strategic initiatives [1][4][17]. Company Performance - QFIN stock has increased by 129% over the past year, compared to a 36.8% rise in the industry and 11.4% growth in the Zacks S&P 500 composite [1]. - In the last six months, QFIN has gained 52.4%, while the industry rose by 7.3%, and competitors N-able and NV5 Global saw declines of 22.3% and 11.3%, respectively [4]. - As of the last trading session, QFIN closed at $46.05, down 6.3% from its 52-week high of $48.94 [4]. Financial Strength - Qifu Technology reported strong cash reserves of $1.4 billion at the end of Q4 2024, with only $188 million in current debt, indicating a healthy financial position [10]. - The current ratio of 2.45 exceeds the industry average of 1.76, reflecting the company's ability to meet short-term obligations, with a 22.5% increase from the previous year [11]. - The return on equity stands at 27.3%, significantly higher than the industry average of 5.5%, showcasing exceptional profitability and efficient capital use [13]. Growth Catalysts - China's consumption-driven policies, aimed at boosting income and reducing burdens, serve as a growth catalyst for QFIN [6]. - The company has integrated AI into its operations, leading to a 25.1% improvement in user outreach and a 10% reduction in the average cost per credit line user [8]. - QFIN's loan portfolio, primarily in credit cards, mortgages, and auto loans, aligns well with government initiatives to enhance consumer lending [7]. Valuation and Prospects - QFIN stock is currently priced at 6.4 times forward 12-month earnings per share, significantly lower than the industry average of 24.2 times [15]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate projects 2025 revenues at $2.4 billion, reflecting a 2.2% increase, and 2026 revenues at $2.7 billion, indicating a 12.4% year-over-year rise [16]. - Earnings estimates for 2025 are pegged at $6.93 per share, a 22.4% increase from the prior year, with 2026 earnings expected to reach $7.77 per share, suggesting a 12% year-over-year rise [16].

Core Viewpoint - Qifu Technology, Inc. will hold its annual general meeting (AGM) on June 30, 2025, to discuss several key resolutions including a name change and re-appointment of auditors [1][4]. Group 1: AGM Details - The AGM is scheduled for June 30, 2025, at 10:00 a.m. Beijing time, at Lujiazui Finance Plaza, Shanghai [1]. - The record date for Class A ordinary shares is set for May 27, 2025, Hong Kong time, allowing holders to attend and vote at the AGM [2]. - Holders of American Depositary Shares (ADSs) must provide voting instructions to The Bank of New York Mellon to exercise their voting rights [3]. Group 2: Proposed Resolutions - Proposed changes at the AGM include changing the company's English name from "Qifu Technology, Inc." to "Qfin Holdings, Inc." [1]. - The company plans to adopt an amended and restated memorandum and articles of association [1]. - Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Certified Public Accountants LLP is proposed for re-appointment as the auditor until the next AGM [1]. - Mr. Xiangge Liu is proposed for re-election as a director of the company [1]. Group 3: Company Overview - Qifu Technology is a leading AI-empowered Credit-Tech platform in China, providing technology services throughout the loan lifecycle [5]. - The company utilizes machine learning models and data analytics to enhance credit service accessibility for consumers and SMEs [5].