Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of $13.00, indicating a potential upside of 50.3% from the current price of $8.65 [1][12]. Core Insights - The company's net profit for Q2 2025 was 751 million RMB, exceeding Bloomberg's expectations by 4%, with a year-on-year growth of 36.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.9% [2]. - Revenue for Q2 2025 grew by 12.9% year-on-year and 2.8% quarter-on-quarter, with a stable take rate of 3.4% in mainland China [2]. - The company maintains its guidance for a revenue growth of 10-15% year-on-year for 2025 [2]. - The international business segment continues to grow, with a year-on-year increase of 41.5% in revenue, contributing to 22.3% of total revenue [6]. Financial Performance - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, the company is projected to achieve a revenue of 13,825 million RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.8% [5][13]. - The net profit for the same period is expected to be 2,678 million RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 12.4% [5][13]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 11.00 RMB, representing a growth of 14.7% [5][13]. Business Growth - The facilitated loans in Q2 2025 increased by 10.9% year-on-year, with international market loans growing by 39.1% [6]. - The company issued convertible bonds in June to support international business expansion, with an expected profit contribution of no less than $15 million from international operations in 2025 [6]. - The asset quality remains stable, with a 90-day delinquency rate of 1.92%, showing a slight improvement from the previous quarter [6]. Market Position - The company's market capitalization is approximately $1.21 billion, with a year-to-date stock price change of 27.39% [4]. - The stock has a 52-week high of $10.72 and a low of $5.18, indicating significant volatility [4].

Core Viewpoint - The "New Lending Regulations" have impacted the performance and strategies of leading lending institutions, with each showing distinct growth trajectories and challenges. Group 1: Company Performance - Xinyi Technology reported a net income of 3.578 billion RMB for Q2, a year-on-year increase of 12.94%, and a net profit of 751 million RMB, up 36.35% [1] - Q2 loan facilitation service fees contributed significantly to revenue growth, reaching 1.515 billion RMB, a 36.45% increase year-on-year, driven by expanded transaction volume and higher average service fees [1] - Q2 loan balance for Xinyi Technology was 77.5 billion RMB, a year-on-year growth of 18.1%, with domestic loans at 75.4 billion RMB (up 17.4%) and overseas loans at 2.1 billion RMB (up 50.0%) [1][3] - Q2 revenue for Qifu Technology was 5.216 billion RMB, a 25.38% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.731 billion RMB, up 25.72% [2] - Qifu Technology's total loan facilitation and issuance reached 84.609 billion RMB, a 16.1% increase year-on-year [6] - Lexin's total revenue for Q2 was 3.587 billion RMB, down 1.5% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 126% to 511 million RMB [2][4] Group 2: Market Trends and Strategies - The "New Lending Regulations" have led to tighter funding supplies and increased costs for lending institutions, prompting Lexin to adjust its business model by shifting from light capital to heavy capital modes [7][8] - Lexin's light capital model accounted for 20% of GMV in Q2, down from 27% in Q1, while heavy capital mode increased from 73% to 80% [7] - Qifu Technology's user base grew significantly, with over 60 million borrowers, a 12.3% increase year-on-year, and a high repeat borrowing rate of 93.8% [2] - Xinyi Technology's international business revenue reached 796.7 million RMB in Q2, a 41.5% increase year-on-year, representing 22.3% of total revenue [2][3] Group 3: Risk Management - Lexin's non-performing loan rate was the highest among the three companies at 3.1% [5] - Both Lexin and Qifu Technology have increased their provisions to enhance risk buffers, with Lexin raising provisions by 13.6% to 1.04 billion RMB, achieving a coverage ratio of 270% [9] - Qifu Technology's provision coverage ratio reached a historical high of 662% [9]

奇富科技2025年Q2业绩出炉，「一只互金鹅」将从其主要数据表现、海外业务进展、"助贷新规"影响，以及获客和贷后等方面进行简单总结。 （先赞后看，人生灿烂） 二季度，奇富科技营收52.16亿，同比增长25.38%，环比增长11.2%；净利润17.31亿，同比增长25.72%，环比减少3.68%。 二季度，奇富科技撮合放款846.09亿，环比减少4.81%，同比增长16.12%。 截至2025年6月末，奇富科技贷款余额1400.80亿，和3月末的1402.73亿相比差别不大，和去年同期的1235.51相比增长13.38%。 整体来看，Q2奇富科技的策略还是较为审慎。 奇富科技的业务大家已经很熟悉了，在过去的一些财报解析文章中「一只互金鹅」分析过很多次。 在4月"助贷新规"下发后，互金行业不少玩家都在观望奇富科技的策略调整。 如上个季度的财报文章，其首席风险官郑彦提到的，奇富科技的商业模式相当多样化，可以很容易地在重资产和轻资产轻之间切换。这让奇富科技可以灵 活地调整资产配置以及增长和风险之间的平衡。 「一只互金鹅」理解，或许奇富可以调整的策略，也不一定适配其他平台。 01 Q2发力了重资本模式助贷 | | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of the new regulations on internet lending by the National Financial Regulatory Administration is causing a significant shift in the lending landscape, with banks and consumer finance companies reallocating resources towards compliant platforms while trust and commercial insurance funds are stepping in to fill the funding gaps left by traditional lenders [2][4][6]. Group 1: Regulatory Impact - The new regulations require banks to clearly define service fees and comprehensive financing costs in their agreements with lending platforms, directly addressing the high-cost lending issues in the industry [4][5]. - The regulations have led to a clear segmentation in the lending market, with high-interest lending platforms facing rejection from banks and consumer finance companies, while those with lower rates are experiencing intense competition [6][7]. Group 2: Funding Sources - Trust funds, previously sidelined due to cost disadvantages, are becoming increasingly active in the consumer finance market as traditional funding sources tighten [9][10]. - Trust companies are focusing on high-quality asset packages, particularly those associated with leading lending platforms, as they seek to mitigate risks while capitalizing on competitive returns [11][12]. Group 3: Alternative Financing Channels - In addition to trust funds, commercial factoring and financing leasing companies are being considered as alternative funding sources, although their capacity to fill the gaps is limited due to regulatory constraints [14][15]. - The regulatory environment is tightening around commercial factoring and financing leasing, which may further restrict their ability to engage in consumer lending activities [16][17].

今年10月1日，国家金融监管总局发布的《关于加强商业银行互联网助贷业务管理提升金融服 务质效的通知》将正式实施。这份被业内称为"助贷新规"的政策激起的涟漪，正在金融生态链 中悄然扩散。 21世纪经济报道记者调查发现，在距离新规正式实施不足2个月的当前，一场助贷行业的资金 迁徙正在悄然进行： 在监管明确要求控制综合融资成本、严管收费行为并推行名单制管理的 背景下，银行与消费金融公司正优化布局，将资源向头部合规平台倾斜；在助贷行业资金面临 收缩的背景下，信托、商业保理等资金提供方，正在成为填补助贷机构资金缺口的重要选项。 首先，最直接的冲击落在了高息资产端。 年化综合成本达36%的助贷机构几乎全部被银行、 消费金融机构拒之门外。 一位华北地区城商行零售业务负责人对21世纪经济报道记者坦 言："这类资产信用风险与监管压力双高，基本不做考虑。" 但年化利率24%以上资产的资金供给目前并未消失，但成本出现明显抬升。华南某助贷公司从 业人士对记者透露： "很多24%以上的资金还没完全撤出，但银行，尤其是中小银行、民营银 行资金端停止供给，让助贷机构不得不转向其他资金渠道，市场价格比去年涨了2—3个百分 点，部分甚至高出5 ...

距离"助贷新规"全面实施还有不到50天的时间。 新规要求，商业银行应当在合作协议中明确平台服务、增信服务的费用标准或区间，将增信服务费计入借款人综合融资成本，明确综合融资成本区间。 这一规定实质上将助贷服务的年化利率上限锁定在24%以内，也意味着传统"双融担"模式将退出历史舞台。 为迎合新规要求，有的机构开始转向"24%+权益"，有的则转向"24%+公证"。还有一些机构，尚未做出符合新规的实质性改变。 这其中，笔者注意到，成立十年的知名腰部助贷机构，且在航旅金融场景下占据龙头地位的信用飞，依然执行年化利率36%的上限标准，而如果开通会员， 用户的综合借贷成本远超36%。 这样的高利率也让其在饱受用户投诉。 01 测试综合借贷成本35.99%，利率仅占5.5% "我2025年在信用飞平台借款，综合利率达到35.99%，属于高利贷，我现要求退还超过国家利率部分，并调整利率至合法范围。" "信用飞平台收取高额担保费，和不合理不合规的高额利息，利率达到36%，早已超出正常合法利率，诉求退还我全部结清的担保费和高额利息，维护我作 为消费者的合法权益！" …… 在黑猫投诉上，针对信用飞高额利率的投诉比比皆是。那么，这些投 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of $12.00 [8][9]. Core Insights - The company's net profit for Q2 2025 reached 510 million RMB, showing a year-on-year increase of 126% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 19%, aligning with the company's guidance for significant profit growth this year [1]. - The net profit take rate (NTR) improved to 1.92% from 1.59% in Q1 2025, driven by increased revenue from light capital and e-commerce businesses [1]. - The company has announced a share repurchase plan of $50 million and a management buyback plan of $10 million, indicating a commitment to shareholder returns [1]. - The main uncertainty for the future is the potential impact of the new lending regulations on the industry, which could affect profitability and loan risk performance [1]. Summary by Sections Quality - Risk indicators have shown continuous improvement, with a 2% decrease in the first-day overdue rate and a 5% decrease in the first payment default (FPD) rate for new loans [2]. - The company has been upgrading its risk control system since early 2024, and the improving loan quality is gradually validating these efforts [2]. - Despite positive forward-looking risk indicators, the company remains cautious in provisioning, with credit costs increasing by 13.6% quarter-on-quarter [2]. Scale - New loan issuance slightly increased to 5.29 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.5% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 2.5% [3]. - The proportion of loans under the ICP model decreased to 15% from 24% in Q1 2025 due to stricter regulations, but the company's diversified business ecosystem helps mitigate related impacts [3]. - E-commerce GMV reached 2 billion RMB, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 80.2%, with 97% of consumers using installment services [3]. Profitability - The NTR increased to 1.92%, primarily driven by a 126 basis points increase in revenue take rate to 11.64% [4]. - Light capital income rose by 32.9% to 830 million RMB, significantly contributing to profitability [4]. - E-commerce gross profit also increased by 71% to 97 million RMB due to rapid growth in GMV [4]. - Factors negatively impacting profitability include a 27 basis points rise in funding costs to 4.2% and an increase in customer acquisition costs to 810 RMB [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company's performance is relatively stable, with minor adjustments to net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027, now projected at 2.18 billion RMB, 3.21 billion RMB, and 3.60 billion RMB respectively [6]. - The average price-to-book (PB) ratio for comparable consumer loan platforms is estimated at 1.07x for 2025, and the company is assigned a PB of 1.15x based on its unique business ecosystem [6].

Core Viewpoint - The traditional "dual financing guarantee" model in the lending industry is being phased out due to the upcoming implementation of the "assisted lending regulations," leading to a significant reshaping of the industry as companies explore new compliance strategies to avoid regulatory pitfalls [1][2]. Group 1: Regulatory Changes - The "assisted lending regulations" set a cap on annualized interest rates at 24%, effectively rendering the previous "dual financing guarantee" model obsolete [2]. - The regulations require clear disclosure of service and guarantee fees in cooperation agreements, impacting the overall financing cost for borrowers [2]. Group 2: New Business Models - Companies are shifting towards a "24% + notarization" model, particularly in the equipment rental and auto loan sectors, as a way to navigate the regulatory landscape [1][2]. - Some rental platforms are bundling additional fees such as notarization and insurance, which increases the actual cost for users [1][3]. Group 3: Challenges in Implementation - The new notarization models face three main challenges: the judicial system's capacity to handle small, high-frequency cases, rising consumer complaints about hidden fees, and insufficient motivation for institutions to adapt under profit pressure [1][7]. - The effectiveness of "strong notarization" is being questioned, leading to the exploration of a "composite notarization" model that balances costs and risks [4][5]. Group 4: Consumer Experiences - Consumers have reported being charged additional fees on rental platforms, significantly increasing their overall costs, with one individual noting an extra cost of approximately 5,317 yuan for a rental transaction [3]. - Complaints about hidden fees are rising, with some platforms charging between 200 to 500 yuan for notarization fees [3][7]. Group 5: Industry Outlook - The industry is undergoing a critical transition from exploratory adjustments to substantial changes, with many small institutions initially attempting to repackage existing high-rate products as compliant offerings [8][9]. - The current asset scale of products with interest rates above 36% still exceeds 50%, indicating potential systemic risks if abrupt regulatory changes are enforced [9].

Core Viewpoint - The "24%+ equity" model in the lending industry is facing significant challenges as regulatory scrutiny increases, potentially leading to stricter regulations on equity services and fees [1][27]. Group 1: Overview of the "24%+ Equity" Model - The "24%+ equity" model allows borrowers to obtain consumer loans at an annual interest rate of 24% while also purchasing equity services from lending platforms or licensed consumer finance institutions [3][13]. - This model has become popular as lending institutions seek to increase non-interest income through equity services amid difficulties in earning interest spread [1][27]. Group 2: Regulatory Concerns and Industry Response - Recent regulatory notifications have prompted concerns among lending platforms and licensed consumer finance institutions about the sustainability of the "24%+ equity" model [5][6]. - The introduction of the "New Lending Regulations" in April has restricted platforms from charging interest fees in any form, raising fears that equity service fees may be viewed as disguised interest rate increases [7][11]. - Many lending institutions are preparing to exit the "24%+ equity" model, focusing instead on high-quality customer segments with interest rates below 24% [8][28]. Group 3: Financial Implications and Market Dynamics - The "24%+ equity" model has allowed some lending platforms to generate substantial revenue, with some platforms collecting hundreds of thousands of yuan in equity fees monthly [17]. - However, the model has also led to issues such as bundled sales and forced purchases, which have raised consumer complaints and could lead to increased regulatory scrutiny [19][20]. - The potential for regulatory changes has caused many lending institutions to reconsider their business strategies, with some halting plans to expand the "24%+ equity" model [25][26]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The future of the "24%+ equity" model remains uncertain, with industry players awaiting regulatory decisions that could significantly impact their operations [28]. - If the model is deemed unsustainable, lending platforms may need to adjust their focus to maintain profitability, potentially leading to a reduction in overall business scale [28][29].

Core Viewpoint - The emerging "24%+ equity" model in the lending industry is facing significant challenges and potential discontinuation due to regulatory scrutiny and operational concerns [2][11]. Regulatory Concerns - Regulatory bodies have issued surveys to licensed consumer finance institutions regarding their provision of equity services, raising concerns that the "24%+ equity" model may not be sustainable [2][10]. - The "24%+ equity" model includes benefits such as credit limit increases and rapid loan disbursement, which regulators may view as disguised fee increases for credit enhancement services [3][10]. Industry Response - Many lending platforms are preparing to exit the "24%+ equity" model, halting new local service partnerships and referral business to mitigate potential customer complaints [2][3]. - The industry is shifting focus towards high-quality customer segments, particularly those with loan interest rates below 24%, as competition intensifies and credit risk increases [3][6]. Financial Implications - The "24%+ equity" model has allowed lending platforms to lower the nominal financing costs for borrowers while generating additional revenue through equity service fees [6][13]. - Some platforms have reported substantial income from equity fees, with certain large platforms collecting hundreds of thousands of yuan monthly [7][13]. Consumer Issues - The model has faced criticism for practices such as bundled sales and forced purchases, which can lead to increased overall financing costs for consumers [9][10]. - Complaints related to the "24%+ equity" model have surged, highlighting issues such as automatic opt-ins for equity services and difficulties in obtaining refunds [9][10]. Future Outlook - The future viability of the "24%+ equity" model is uncertain, with many industry players anticipating stricter regulations that could limit its operational scope [11][12]. - Companies are preparing for potential regulatory changes by considering adjustments to their business strategies, including focusing on lower-risk customer segments [12][14].