Core Viewpoint - Canada Goose (GOOS) is highlighted as a strong investment opportunity with a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy) and a positive earnings outlook for the current year [1] Company Summary - Canada Goose is a global outerwear brand that specializes in the design, manufacturing, distribution, and retail of premium outerwear for men, women, and children [1] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Canada Goose's current year earnings has increased by 2.3% over the last 60 days [1]

Core Viewpoint - Qifu Technology, Inc. (QFIN) has received an upgrade to a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) due to an upward trend in earnings estimates, which is a significant factor influencing stock prices [1][4]. Earnings Estimates and Ratings - The Zacks rating system is primarily driven by changes in a company's earnings picture, specifically the Zacks Consensus Estimate for EPS from sell-side analysts [2]. - The Zacks rating upgrade for Qifu Technology indicates a positive outlook on its earnings, which could positively affect its stock price [4][6]. Impact of Earnings Estimates on Stock Prices - There is a strong correlation between changes in earnings estimates and near-term stock price movements, with institutional investors playing a role in this relationship [5]. - Rising earnings estimates and the subsequent rating upgrade suggest an improvement in Qifu Technology's underlying business, which should lead to higher stock prices [6]. Importance of Earnings Estimate Revisions - Empirical research supports the idea that tracking earnings estimate revisions can be beneficial for investment decisions, highlighting the effectiveness of the Zacks Rank stock-rating system [7]. - The Zacks Rank system classifies stocks into five groups based on earnings estimates, with Zacks Rank 1 stocks historically generating an average annual return of +25% since 1988 [8]. Specifics on Qifu Technology's Earnings Estimates - Qifu Technology is projected to earn $7.11 per share for the fiscal year ending December 2025, with no year-over-year change expected [9]. - Over the past three months, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Qifu Technology has increased by 2.6% [9]. Conclusion on Zacks Rating System - The Zacks rating system maintains a balanced distribution of "buy" and "sell" ratings across its universe of over 4,000 stocks, with only the top 5% receiving a "Strong Buy" rating [10]. - The upgrade of Qifu Technology to a Zacks Rank 1 places it in the top 5% of Zacks-covered stocks, indicating a strong potential for market-beating returns in the near term [11].

Core Insights - The investment approach focuses on identifying businesses with potential for long-term growth and significant terminal value generation [1] - Emphasis is placed on understanding core business economics, including competitive advantages, unit economics, reinvestment opportunities, and management quality [1] - The goal is to generate long-term free cash flow and create shareholder value through fundamental research [1] Investment Strategy - The strategy targets sectors with strong secular tailwinds, indicating a preference for industries poised for sustained growth [1] - The investor is self-educated and has been active in the investment field for 10 years, currently managing personal funds sourced from friends and family [1] - The intention behind sharing insights on platforms like Seeking Alpha is to provide valuable analysis and receive feedback from the investment community [1]

Core Viewpoint - Qifu Technology, Inc. (QFIN) shows potential for upside with a mean price target of $54.8, indicating a 27.3% increase from the current price of $43.06 [1] Price Targets and Analyst Estimates - The mean estimate consists of four short-term price targets with a standard deviation of $4.14, suggesting a consensus among analysts [2] - The lowest estimate is $50.00, indicating a 16.1% increase, while the highest estimate is $58.50, suggesting a 35.9% increase [2] - Analysts' price targets should be approached with caution, as their reliability has been questioned [3][7] Earnings Estimates and Analyst Agreement - Strong agreement among analysts regarding QFIN's earnings prospects supports the potential for stock upside [4][11] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current year has increased by 2.3% over the past month, with two estimates revised upward [12] - QFIN holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), placing it in the top 20% of over 4,000 ranked stocks based on earnings estimates [13] Conclusion on Price Movement - While consensus price targets may not be entirely reliable, the direction they imply appears to be a good guide for potential price movement [14]

Core Viewpoint - Company demonstrates resilient demand and continues to optimize marketing strategies, maintaining healthy loan quality and shareholder returns through ongoing share buybacks [1][2] Group 1: Loan Quality and Profitability - In Q1 2025, the C-M2 ratio slightly increased to 0.60% from 0.57% in Q4 2024, while the first-day overdue rate rose to 5.0% from 4.8% [1] - The 30-day repayment rate remained stable at 88.1%, indicating that loan quality is still healthy [1] - The provision coverage ratio stands at 666%, up from 617% in Q4 2024, suggesting high profitability quality [1] Group 2: Demand and Customer Acquisition - Q1 2025 saw new loan issuance of 88.9 billion, a slight decrease of 1.1% quarter-on-quarter, reflecting resilient credit demand despite being a traditional off-peak season [2] - The company expects a year-on-year growth rate of approximately 8% in new loan issuance for 2025 [2] - The cost of customer acquisition increased to 384 RMB in Q1 2025 from 312 RMB in Q4 2024, attributed to a higher proportion of API channel acquisitions and increased spending on high-cost information flow channels [2] Group 3: Shareholder Returns - As of May 19, 2025, the company has repurchased shares worth 178 million USD out of a planned 450 million USD buyback, with expectations to complete the remaining amount within the year [2] - The company has committed to a dividend payout ratio of 20-30%, projecting a minimum shareholder return of approximately 10% for the year [2] Group 4: Profit Forecast - The company maintains net profit forecasts of 7.1 billion, 7.7 billion, and 8.2 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [2] - Target prices for US and Hong Kong stocks are set at 55.6 USD and 220.9 HKD, based on a PE ratio of 6.5x for 2025 and DCF methods [2]

证券研究报告 奇富科技-S (3660 HK/QFIN US) 2025 年中期策略会速递— 盈利高质量，贷款质量稳健 | 华泰研究 | | | 更新报告 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 6 月 | 05 日│中国香港/美国 | 其他多元金融 | 6 月 4 日奇富科技出席了我们组织的 2025 年中期策略会，会上公司回顾了 1Q25 的经营情况，并解答了投资者关注的问题。1Q25 需求具有韧性，同 时营销策略持续优化。贷款质量保持健康，C-M2 基本稳定。另外公司重视 股东回报，股份回购持续推进。我们认为公司运营稳健，质量稳定，利润"安 全垫"较为充足，预计 25 年盈利有望进一步提升，维持"买入"评级。 贷款质量保持稳健，盈利质量高 1Q25 C-M2 比例略升至 0.60%（4Q24：0.57%），首日逾期率升至 5.0% （4Q24：4.8%），30 天回款率环比持平于 88.1%。贷款质量仍然维持健康。 基于当前的宏观环境，结合公司谨慎的贷款投放和对风险的重视，我们预计 内年的 C-M2 比例有望大致维持在当前水平。另外 1Q25 的拨备计提率约 4.9 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [8] Core Views - The company demonstrates resilient demand and stable loan quality, with a focus on shareholder returns through ongoing share buybacks. The operational stability and quality are expected to enhance profitability in 2025 [1][2][4] Summary by Sections Loan Quality and Profitability - The C-M2 ratio slightly increased to 0.60% in Q1 2025 from 0.57% in Q4 2024, while the first-day overdue rate rose to 5.0% from 4.8%. The 30-day repayment rate remained stable at 88.1%. The loan quality is considered healthy, with a provisioning rate of approximately 4.9%, significantly higher than the long-term vintage overdue rate of 2.5-3.5%, indicating a strong profit cushion [2] Demand and Customer Acquisition Strategy - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a loan issuance of 88.9 billion RMB, reflecting a slight decrease of 1.1% quarter-on-quarter, indicating resilient credit demand. The customer acquisition cost per new credit user increased to 384 RMB from 312 RMB in Q4 2024, attributed to a higher proportion of API channel acquisitions and increased spending on high-cost information flow channels [3] Shareholder Returns - As of May 19, 2025, the company repurchased shares worth 178 million USD under a 450 million USD buyback plan, with expectations to complete the remaining amount within the year. The anticipated minimum shareholder return for the year is approximately 10%, supported by a commitment to a 20-30% dividend payout ratio [4] Profit Forecast - The company maintains its profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 at 7.1 billion, 7.7 billion, and 8.2 billion RMB respectively. The target prices are set at 55.6 USD and 220.9 HKD, based on a PE ratio of 6.5x for 2025 and DCF methods [5]

Core Viewpoint - QFIN Technology (奇富科技) has demonstrated impressive financial performance, with a quarterly revenue of 46.9 billion and a net profit of 18 million, attracting positive attention from various brokerage firms [1][2][3] Financial Performance - The company reported a quarterly revenue of 46.9 billion and a net profit of 18 million [1] - Major brokerage firms have upgraded their ratings and target prices for QFIN Technology, with Citigroup and Bank of America setting target prices at $58.5 and $52.7 respectively, while CICC maintains a "outperform" rating for the Hong Kong stock with a target price of 253.4 HKD [2] Business Overview - QFIN Technology primarily operates in the credit sector, leveraging AI technology to enhance its business processes [4][5] - The company has established partnerships with 163 financial institutions, serving 58 million users, indicating a strong market presence [6] Technological Integration - The integration of AI into core business processes such as customer acquisition, approval, and risk control has led to significant operational improvements [7] - Key performance indicators show a 6% year-on-year increase in new credit users and a 15.8% increase in loan facilitation volume [10] Cost Control and Competitive Advantage - Effective cost control is crucial for survival and profitability in the financial industry, and QFIN Technology has established a leading advantage in this area [11][12] - The company's intelligent ecosystem is expected to reduce marginal costs and increase marginal returns, thereby enhancing profit margins [13] Business Growth Opportunities - QFIN Technology's subsidiary, QFIN Data Technology, has seen a 144% year-on-year growth in business scale through partnerships with mid-sized city commercial banks [14] - The ongoing investment in AI is likely to lead to a reassessment of the company's long-term value in the market [15] Valuation and Market Position - The competitive barriers created by the credit intelligence model are expected to enhance earnings per share (EPS) and drive valuation increases [16] - The company's first-mover advantage in the intelligent ecosystem positions it favorably for future industry competition, potentially leading to a scarcity premium [17]

Core Insights - The core focus of Qifu Technology is on AI integration within its operations, emphasizing a company-wide shift towards AI-driven strategies and projects [1][2][3] Financial Performance - Qifu Technology reported strong performance in Q1 2025, with AI being a central theme in their financial results and management discussions [1] - The company has established a large model team in the fintech sector, directly managed by CEO Wu Haisheng, indicating a significant commitment to AI [1] AI Strategy and Implementation - The company launched an "all-in AI" initiative, encouraging all employees to participate in AI-related projects, marking a shift from a cautious approach to a more aggressive AI strategy [2][4] - The "Deepbank" project aims to redefine the financial industry's intelligent paradigm, with a focus on rapid output and implementation [2][3] Employee Engagement and Culture - Qifu Technology has created a culture of urgency and excitement around AI, with numerous internal meetings and discussions to align employees on AI strategies [3][4] - Different employee groups have emerged, including those who are enthusiastic, anxious, or resistant to change, reflecting a diverse range of attitudes towards the AI transformation [4] Investment and Resource Allocation - The company has committed to unprecedented investments in AI, with no upper limit on budgets for AI-related human resources and development [7][11] - Qifu Technology's "Deepbank Star Sea Plan" aims to attract top AI talent, offering competitive salaries and internal mobility opportunities [10][11] AI Application and Development - The company has begun implementing AI agents in its core business processes, significantly improving operational efficiency and decision-making capabilities [14][15] - Qifu Technology's AI decision-making module has shown promising results, with a model AUC value of 0.64 in risk prediction, indicating effective AI integration [14] Strategic Partnerships - Qifu Technology has signed "AI+ Financial Strategic Cooperation Agreements" with multiple banks, focusing on enhancing marketing, risk control, and decision-making processes [15] - The CEO emphasized that AI technology is crucial for the next generation of fintech, positioning the company for long-term growth through AI-driven innovations [15]

Core Viewpoint - Q1 2025 performance of Qifu Technology exceeded previous expectations, driven by higher loan volumes and improved funding costs [1][2] Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue increased by 13% year-on-year and 5% quarter-on-quarter to 4.69 billion yuan, while non-GAAP net profit rose by 60% year-on-year but decreased by 2% quarter-on-quarter to 1.93 billion yuan [1][2] - The net service fee rate was approximately 5.6%, slightly down from 5.96% in Q4 2024, attributed to a decrease in average funding costs and stable asset quality [2] Loan Volume and Structure - Q1 2025 loan volume increased by 16% year-on-year but decreased by 1% quarter-on-quarter to 88.9 billion yuan, with technology solution loans accounting for about 49% [1] - The company expects loan volume growth of 5%-10% year-on-year for 2025, maintaining previous forecasts [1] Shareholder Returns - The company maintains a semi-annual dividend policy, with cash dividends of $0.6 and $0.7 per ADS planned for 1H24 and 2H24 respectively [2] - As of May 19, 2025, the company has repurchased 9.1 million ADS for approximately $405 million, with total repurchase expected to be no less than $680 million for 2025 [2] Regulatory Environment - The introduction of the "Assisted Loan New Regulations" is expected to promote industry standardization and eliminate unreasonable pricing behaviors, benefiting compliant institutions like the company [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Earnings forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been raised by 2% and 4% to 7.17 billion yuan and 7.82 billion yuan respectively due to optimized funding and credit costs [3] - The company's current trading multiples are 7.1x and 6.5x for 2025 and 2026 P/E in the US market, and 6.6x and 6.0x in the Hong Kong market, with target prices maintained at $60.0 and HK$253.4 [3]