FF305 翌日披露報表 (股份發行人 ── 已發行股份或庫存股份變動、股份購回及/或在場内出售庫存股份) 表格類別： 股票 狀態： 新提交 公司名稱： 金山軟件有限公司 呈交日期： 2026年2月3日 如上市發行人的已發行股份或庫存股份出現變動而須根據《香港聯合交易所有限公司（「香港聯交所」）證券上市規則》(「《主板上市規則》」)第13.25A條 / 《香港聯合交易所有限公司GEM證券 上市規則》(「《GEM上市規則》」)第17.27A條作出披露，必須填妥第一章節 。 | 第一章節 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 | 是 | | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 03888 | 說明 普通股 | | | | | | | A. 已發行股份或庫存股份變動 | | | | | | | | | | | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）變動 | | | 庫存股份變動 | | | | 事件 | | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）數 目 | 佔有關事 ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market saw a collective decline among major internet giants, with Kuaishou dropping over 6%, Baidu, Bilibili, and Tencent falling over 5%, Alibaba down over 3%, and Meituan decreasing over 2% [1] Group 2 - Kuaishou's stock decreased by 6.49%, with a year-to-date increase of 12.59%, and a total market capitalization of 313.7 billion [2] - Baidu Group's stock fell by 5.79%, with a year-to-date increase of 5.10%, and a total market capitalization of 3800.73 billion [2] - Bilibili's stock declined by 5.39%, with a year-to-date increase of 27.32%, and a total market capitalization of 1018.55 billion [2] - Tencent Holdings experienced a drop of 5.18%, with a year-to-date decrease of 5.26%, and a total market capitalization of 5.18 trillion [2] - Alibaba's stock fell by 3.61%, with a year-to-date increase of 10.22%, and a total market capitalization of 3.01 trillion [2] - Meituan's stock decreased by 2.42%, with a year-to-date decrease of 10.41%, and a total market capitalization of 5656.35 billion [2]

Core Viewpoint - The technology stocks in Hong Kong experienced a significant decline, leading to a nearly 3% drop in the Hang Seng Tech Index, with major companies like Tencent, Alibaba, and Kingsoft seeing substantial losses in their stock prices [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Tencent's stock fell by 5.85%, trading at HKD 563.5 [1] - Alibaba's stock decreased by 4.53%, reaching HKD 155.9 [1] - Kingsoft's stock dropped by 4.07%, priced at HKD 28.28 [1] Group 2: AI Competition - The AI competition has intensified with major companies like Tencent and Alibaba launching their respective "red envelope" initiatives for the Spring Festival, with a total amount exceeding 4 billion yuan [1] - This strategic move is seen as a significant effort to enhance user engagement and ecosystem development in AI applications [1] - Dongguan Securities reported that the simultaneous push by domestic internet giants into the Spring Festival market signifies a new phase in AI application competition, aiming to attract a large number of users and increase the frequency of AI product usage [1]

Group 1 - The AI social platform Moltbook has gained significant popularity overseas, featuring 1.5 million AI agents engaging in discussions across thousands of forums, mimicking human social patterns [1][3] - Tencent's AI platform Yuanbao launched a cash red envelope activity on February 1, leading to a surge in downloads, topping the iPhone app rankings on the same day [2][3] - The advancements in large model reasoning and multi-modal capabilities indicate a strong foundation for human-like interactions in AI social platforms, suggesting a pathway from niche applications to broader social engagement [1][3] Group 2 - Google announced the public testing of its world model Genie3, allowing users to create real-time interactive virtual worlds through natural language dialogue, enhancing game development accessibility [4] - The launch of Taptap Maker by Xindong Company enables game creators to develop games directly within a chat interface, significantly lowering the barriers to game development [4] - The gaming sector is expected to benefit from AI advancements, with recommendations to focus on companies with strong platform attributes, including Xindong Company and others [4]

Core Viewpoint - The "Guanghuo Goes Global · Jingshan New Year Goods Festival" was launched in Zhuhai High-tech Zone, featuring nearly 40 enterprises and around 200 selected products, aiming to provide a high-quality one-stop shopping experience for the New Year [1][3][5]. Group 1: Event Overview - The event is guided by multiple local government bodies and organized by Kingsoft Group in collaboration with various associations, responding to the provincial initiative "Guanghuo Goes Global" [3]. - The festival showcases a variety of products, including traditional foods and innovative tech items, emphasizing quality and local specialties [5][10]. Group 2: Product Highlights - Featured products include traditional delicacies such as Doumen pig's feet ginger and handmade pastries, aimed at promoting local brands to a broader market [7][9]. - The event also includes modern tech displays, such as Xiaomi cars and racing drones, integrating traditional New Year shopping with contemporary technology [9][10]. Group 3: Community and Economic Impact - The festival serves as a platform for local farmers and businesses to increase revenue and enhance regional brand recognition [7]. - Kingsoft Group is actively participating by purchasing local products for internal distribution, promoting a cycle of support for local goods [10]. Group 4: Event Logistics - The festival runs until January 31, with extended free parking for visitors on the last day, facilitating easy access for the community [10].

Core Insights - Kingsoft Game has officially launched its AI social app "Qingqing Wowo" in China, following the success of its overseas version, which ranked first in revenue efficiency among AI applications in Asia [1][4] - The company is diversifying its business beyond traditional gaming, marking a significant move into the AI social sector [1][2] Group 1: Product Launch and Performance - The domestic version of "Qingqing Wowo" is based on the overseas app "LoveyDovey," which achieved an annual subscription revenue of $16.89 million [4][6] - The game "Ge Da Sha" (Goose Duck) became a phenomenon in the gaming market, gaining 5 million users within 24 hours of its public test and exceeding 10 million users in six days [2][3] - The game features a shorter playtime of around 10 minutes, catering to the fragmented entertainment time of younger users, thus lowering the entry barrier [2][3] Group 2: Business Strategy and Market Position - Kingsoft Game has transitioned from a single game publisher to a multi-track business model, exploring self-developed games and international markets [7][8] - The company has successfully obtained game licenses for two titles in 2026, indicating a commitment to both traditional and emerging gaming sectors [8] - Unlike larger competitors, Kingsoft Game has quickly adapted to market trends, launching independent AI social products rather than just enhancing existing gaming features [9] Group 3: Challenges and Competitive Landscape - Despite the success of "Ge Da Sha," Kingsoft Game faces challenges in developing its self-researched games, as it has yet to produce a blockbuster title since its independence [10][11] - The domestic AI social market presents different competitive dynamics and regulatory environments compared to overseas, with initial download numbers for "Qingqing Wowo" being significantly lower than its overseas counterpart [11][13] - The company is under pressure from established players like Tencent and Momo, which have significant resources and market share in the AI social space [13]

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to see a quarter-on-quarter improvement in performance for Q4 2025, with revenue projected to decline year-on-year but increase sequentially, driven by stable gaming and robust office segments [1][2] Gaming Segment - Revenue for gaming in Q4 2025 is forecasted to decline by 32% year-on-year and by 2% quarter-on-quarter, with the rate of decline narrowing for both comparisons [1] - The new game "Goose Duck" has exceeded expectations, with over 10 million new players within six days of its launch, ranking in the top 2 for iOS game downloads and around 60th in the revenue rankings [1] - The company will continue to monitor the game's popularity and subsequent commercialization process, alongside other IP games like "Angry Birds" [1] Office Segment - The office segment is projected to see a 19% year-on-year revenue increase in Q4 2025, continuing its recovery trend [1] - Growth in the software business is primarily driven by accelerated bidding and acceptance of government and enterprise projects, with WPS 365 benefiting from enhanced collaboration and AI product lines [1] - WPS 365 has been upgraded to a global all-in-one AI collaborative office platform, integrating various functionalities to support enterprise operations [1] Cloud Segment - For the cloud segment, revenue is expected to grow by 20% year-on-year in Q4 2025, with adjusted operating profit slightly in the negative [2] - High capital expenditures are anticipated to continue into 2026, exceeding levels seen in 2025 [2] Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendation - The company has slightly raised its revenue forecast for gaming in 2025 and anticipates around 10% growth for 2026-2027, while maintaining previous predictions for the office segment and reducing losses in the cloud segment [2] - Revenue projections for 2025 and 2026 are -5.7% and +19% year-on-year, respectively, with net profits estimated at 1.74 billion yuan and 1.6 billion yuan [2] - Based on comparable company valuations, the company is assigned a price-to-earnings ratio of 13 for gaming, 35 for office, and 3 for cloud, leading to a target value of 50.25 HKD per share, maintaining a "buy" rating [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a current price of 30.44 HKD and a target value of 50.25 HKD [4]. Core Insights - The report anticipates a stabilization in gaming revenue, steady performance in office software, and a rebound in profits for Q4. The company is expected to see a 10% quarter-on-quarter revenue increase in Q4 2025, despite a year-on-year decline of 5% [8][10]. - The gaming segment is projected to experience a year-on-year revenue decline of 32% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 2% in Q4 2025, with new game "Goose Duck" exceeding expectations [8][10]. - The office software segment is expected to grow by 19% year-on-year in Q4 2025, driven by government projects and the enhancement of WPS 365 as a global AI collaboration platform [8][10]. - The cloud segment is forecasted to grow by 20% year-on-year in Q4 2025, with continued high capital expenditures expected in 2026 [8][10]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for the company are as follows (in million RMB): - 2023A: 8,534 - 2024A: 10,318 - 2025E: 9,730 - 2026E: 11,571 - 2027E: 13,416 - The growth rates are expected to be 11.7% for 2023, 20.9% for 2024, -5.7% for 2025, 18.9% for 2026, and 15.9% for 2027 [3][10]. - The EBITDA is projected to be 1,268 million RMB in 2023, increasing to 3,511 million RMB by 2027 [3][10]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise from 483 million RMB in 2023 to 2,081 million RMB in 2027, with significant growth in 2024 [3][10]. Business Segment Analysis - Gaming revenue is expected to be 3,977 million RMB in 2023, with a decline to 3,768 million RMB in 2025, followed by a recovery to 4,239 million RMB in 2026 [9][10]. - Office revenue is projected to grow from 4,557 million RMB in 2023 to 5,962 million RMB in 2025, and further to 7,332 million RMB in 2026 [9][10]. - The cloud segment is anticipated to generate significant growth, with revenue expected to reach 12,215 million RMB by 2026 [9][10]. Valuation and Investment Recommendation - The report suggests a valuation of 50.25 HKD per share based on a combination of gaming, office, and cloud business valuations, applying a PE ratio of 13x for gaming, 35x for office, and 3x PS for cloud [12][16]. - The overall recommendation remains "Buy" based on the expected performance and growth potential of the company [12].

Core Insights - The multiplayer online social deduction game "Goose Duck" has gained immense popularity following its mobile launch, surpassing 10 million new users within just six days and achieving a peak concurrent user count that exceeded its Steam version's historical record [2][3] Group 1: Game Launch and Popularity - "Goose Duck" was developed by Gaggle Studios and first launched on Steam in 2021, featuring gameplay similar to "Werewolf" with multiple roles and a third-party interference mechanism [3] - The game has become a cultural phenomenon, trending on various platforms and generating significant online discussions and memes, contributing to its viral success [3][4] Group 2: Innovative Marketing Strategies - The collaboration between Kingsoft Game and Huya for the game's release has disrupted traditional user acquisition methods, focusing on content-driven marketing rather than conventional paid user acquisition [4][6] - The game has engaged popular streamers and content creators to enhance its visibility and community engagement, marking a shift from passive to active marketing strategies [4][6] Group 3: Financial Implications for Kingsoft - Kingsoft's gaming division, which includes Kingsoft Game and Kingsoft Online, has faced financial challenges, with a reported 17% decline in revenue and a 48% drop in net profit in Q3 2025 [7] - "Goose Duck" is seen as a crucial element for Kingsoft to reverse its declining gaming business performance [8] Group 4: Strategic Partnerships and Future Directions - Kingsoft Game has announced a strategic partnership with Rovio Entertainment to leverage the "Angry Birds" IP, indicating a shift towards long-term IP management and development [9] - The company aims to redefine its collaboration approach with overseas developers, focusing on acquiring full IP rights for deeper engagement and sustained user retention [9]

Core Insights - The partnership between Kingsoft's subsidiary, Kingsoft Game, and Rovio Entertainment aims to reintroduce the iconic "Angry Birds" series to the Chinese market, with two core titles set for release [1] - Kingsoft Game's recent success with the social deduction game "Goose Goose Duck" highlights its potential to drive growth, as it quickly gained over 10 million users within a week of launch [2] - Kingsoft Software's financial performance has been declining, with a 6.12% drop in revenue and a 5.68% decrease in net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, indicating challenges in its gaming business [2][3] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, Kingsoft Software reported revenues of 7.065 billion yuan, down 6.12% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.029 billion yuan, down 5.68% [2] - In Q3 2025, the company experienced a significant revenue decline of 17% to 2.419 billion yuan, with gross profit dropping 21% to 1.944 billion yuan, and net profit nearly halving to 213 million yuan [2] - Marketing expenses surged to 564 million yuan in Q3, a 55% increase year-on-year, yet the gaming revenue fell by 47% to 898 million yuan, indicating ineffective spending [3] Game Development and Strategy - Kingsoft Software has restructured its gaming division into two segments: West Mountain Studio, focusing on development, and Kingsoft Game, emphasizing IP strategy and localization [3] - The flagship IP "Jian Xia Qing Yuan" has shown declining performance after 16 years, reflecting a stagnation in its core product [4] - The newly developed sci-fi mech game "Limitless Machine" has underperformed since its release, with a peak online player count dropping significantly shortly after launch [4] Strategic Shifts - Kingsoft Game is positioned as a key player in overcoming current growth challenges, with recent strategic moves indicating a shift in focus towards revitalizing the gaming segment [5] - The reintroduction of "Angry Birds" is part of a broader strategy to leverage classic IPs for market impact, although the long-term success of these titles remains uncertain [5] - Despite the initial success of "Goose Goose Duck," the sustainability of its user engagement and the ability to replicate such success with "Angry Birds" are still in question [5]