Core Viewpoint - The successful evaluation of the first phase of the Fuxing Oilfield's proven geological reserves marks the establishment of China's first shale oil field in the Sichuan Basin, indicating a significant breakthrough in the exploration of shale oil in Southwest China [1] Group 1: Oil and Gas Reserves - The Fuxing Oilfield has proven geological reserves of 10.1 million tons of oil and 12.352 billion cubic meters of natural gas [1] - The Sichuan Basin is characterized by "rich gas and scarce oil," with a historical focus on natural gas exploration and development [1] Group 2: Technological and Theoretical Advancements - The theoretical understanding and key technologies developed for the Fuxing Oilfield are expected to enhance China's shale oil and gas exploration and development theories, technologies, and standards [1] - The company aims to deepen the understanding of enrichment patterns and strengthen the overall evaluation and deployment of terrestrial shale oil in the Sichuan Basin [1] Group 3: Future Exploration Goals - The company plans to achieve new breakthroughs in exploration and establish a second shale oil reserve area in the near future [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for both A and H shares of the company [7] Core Views - The refining sector remains under pressure, with a forecasted decline in net profit for H1 2025 by 39.5%-43.7% year-on-year, primarily due to weak industry conditions [1] - The company's upstream performance is negatively impacted by a significant drop in international oil prices, with Brent crude averaging $66.7 per barrel in Q2 2025, down 21.5% year-on-year [2] - Domestic demand for refined oil products is being squeezed by the rise of new energy vehicles, leading to a decrease in gasoline and diesel consumption by 7.2% and 5.0% respectively in the first half of 2025 [3] - The chemical sector is facing margin pressure due to weak supply-demand dynamics, although capital expenditure is expected to stabilize, potentially leading to a market recovery [4] - The company's net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised downwards by 27% for 2025, reflecting the impact of lower oil prices and refining margins [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company expects a net profit of RMB 201-216 billion for H1 2025, with a significant drop in Q2 net profit anticipated at RMB 68-83 billion [1] - Oil processing volume decreased by 5.3% to 120 million tons in H1 2025, with total refined oil sales down 3.4% to 87.1 million tons [3] Production and Pricing - The company's crude oil production slightly decreased by 0.3% to 140 million barrels in H1 2025, while natural gas production increased by 5.1% to 736.3 billion cubic feet [2] - The average price of gasoline and diesel is expected to decline, with the company adjusting its sales volume and pricing assumptions accordingly [5][15] Capital Expenditure and Market Outlook - The chemical segment's capital expenditure is projected to remain stable at RMB 449 billion, focusing on ethylene and high-end materials [4] - The report suggests that the market may see a recovery as capital expenditure growth reaches a turning point, aided by policies aimed at optimizing supply dynamics [4] Valuation and Price Target - The target price for A shares is set at RMB 6.72 and for H shares at HKD 4.92, reflecting a valuation based on integrated advantages and a lower sensitivity to oil price fluctuations [5][8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance of the A-share market, highlighting the mixed results of major indices and the influence of key sectors and stocks on market movements [2][3][5]. Market Performance - The three major A-share indices experienced slight declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.37% to 3559.95 points, the Shenzhen Component down 0.17% to 10991.32 points, and the ChiNext down 0.24% to 2322.63 points [2]. - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.5984 trillion yuan, a significant decrease of 337.7 billion yuan compared to the previous day [2][5]. Key Influencers - The "Big Four" banks played a crucial role in stabilizing the market, with Agricultural Bank of China reaching a closing high for three consecutive days, and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China also rising for three days [3]. - In contrast, the "two oil giants" (Sinopec and PetroChina) negatively impacted the market due to a 30% decline in their half-year earnings, with Sinopec dropping 5.69% and PetroChina falling 4.08% [3]. Sector Performance - The photovoltaic sector showed relative strength, driven by industry news regarding "anti-involution" [6]. - The insurance sector performed poorly, with significant declines in the afternoon, leading to concerns about its impact on the overall market [6]. Individual Stock Movements - Notable individual stock movements included Tibet Tourism, which saw a 135% increase over the past 10 days but faced volatility, and Southern Road and Bridge, which had eight consecutive daily gains [6]. - The article warns of potential regulatory measures targeting speculative stocks, advising caution for retail investors [6]. International Market Influence - The Dow Jones index fell approximately 0.7% due to the Federal Reserve's decision not to cut interest rates, which negatively affected Asian markets, with Japan's Nikkei down 0.6% and South Korea's market down 3.88% due to increased capital gains tax [6][7]. - European markets also experienced declines, with the Stoxx index down around 1.75% and major European indices falling between 1.65% and 1.8% [7].

从中证香港300上游指数持仓样本的行业来看，石油与天然气占比51.36%、煤炭占比15.88%、工业金属 占比15.22%、贵金属占比15.08%、油气开采与油田服务占比1.05%、稀有金属占比0.88%、其他有色金 属及合金占比0.51%。 资料显示，指数样本每半年调整一次，样本调整实施时间分别为每年6月和12月的第二个星期五的下一 交易日。特殊情况下将对指数进行临时调整。当样本退市时，将其从指数样本中剔除。样本公司发生收 购、合并、分拆等情形的处理，参照计算与维护细则处理。 本文源自：金融界 作者：行情君 数据统计显示，中证香港300上游指数近一个月上涨8.11%，近三个月上涨21.15%，年至今上涨 16.69%。 据了解，中证香港300主题指数系列从中证香港300指数样本中根据中证行业分类选取符合相应主题的证 券作为指数样本，反映了在香港交易所上市各主题证券的整体表现。该指数以2004年12月31日为基日， 以1000.0点为基点。 从指数持仓来看，中证香港300上游指数十大权重分别为：中国海洋石油（28.21%）、中国石油股份 （13.54%）、紫金矿业（10.5%）、中国神华（9.62%）、中国石 ...

致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 中國石油化工股份有限公司 呈交日期: 2025年8月1日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | H | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 00386 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 24,049,292,600 | RMB | | 1 RMB | | 24,049,292,600 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | RMB | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 24,049,292,600 | RMB | | 1 RMB | | 24,049,292,600 | | 2. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | A | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 否 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Core Viewpoint - The company anticipates a significant decline in net profit for the first half of 2025, primarily due to falling international oil prices and increased competition in the oil and petrochemical markets [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - For 2025H1, the company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 201-216 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decrease of 39.5% to 43.7% [1]. - In Q2 2025, the projected net profit is between 68-83 billion yuan, down 52.1% to 60.7% year-on-year, and a decline of 37.2% to 48.5% compared to Q1 2025's net profit of 133 billion yuan [1]. Group 2: Production and Operational Data - In 2025H1, the total oil and gas equivalent production reached 263 million barrels, a 2% increase year-on-year, with oil production at 140 million barrels (down 0.3%) and natural gas production at 208 billion cubic meters (up 5.1%) [2]. - The company processed 120 million tons of crude oil in H1 2025, a decrease of 5.3% year-on-year, with gasoline and diesel production also declining [2]. - Ethylene production increased by 16.4% year-on-year to 7.56 million tons, while synthetic resin production rose by 12.8% to 11.04 million tons [2]. Group 3: Industry Trends and Regulations - The government is implementing a nationwide crackdown on illegal gas stations and enhancing regulation of fuel consumption taxes, which is expected to increase industry concentration [3]. - The reform of fuel consumption taxes will create a more equitable competitive environment for legitimate businesses, potentially benefiting state-owned oil companies with better supply chains and sales networks [3]. Group 4: Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - The company's net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 502, 604, and 723 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting the negative impact of declining oil prices [4]. - The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios for A shares are projected at 14.5, 12.1, and 10.1 times, while for H shares, they are 10.1, 8.4, and 7.0 times [4]. - The company maintains a "buy" rating, anticipating a bottoming out of oil prices and accelerated progress in fuel consumption tax reforms [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both A and H shares of Sinopec [1] Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 is expected to be under pressure, with a projected net profit decline of 39.5% to 43.7% year-on-year, primarily due to falling international oil prices and intense market competition [7] - Future benefits are anticipated from the reform of fuel consumption tax and the reduction of internal competition in refined oil products [7] - The report highlights the company's commitment to shareholder returns, projecting a dividend payout ratio of 73% for 2025, resulting in a dividend yield of 5.0% for A shares and 5.8% for H shares after tax [7] Financial Forecasts - Total revenue for 2025 is estimated at 2,959,498 million RMB, a decrease of 3.74% year-on-year [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 50,172 million RMB for 2025, a slight decrease of 0.28% year-on-year [1] - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to remain at 0.41 RMB for 2025, with a projected increase to 0.60 RMB by 2027 [1] - The report adjusts profit forecasts for 2025-2027, estimating net profits of 502 billion RMB, 604 billion RMB, and 723 billion RMB respectively [7] Operational Data - In H1 2025, the company expects to produce 263 million barrels of oil equivalent, with natural gas contributing to production growth [7] - Oil processing volume is projected to decline by 5.3% year-on-year to 120 million tons in H1 2025 [7] - Domestic refined oil sales are expected to decrease by 3.4% year-on-year, totaling 87 million tons in H1 2025 [7]

Market Performance - The three major A-share indices collectively declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.37%, the ChiNext Index down 0.24%, and the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.17% [1] - The trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets was 16,199 billion yuan, a decrease of 3,420 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] Sector Performance - AI hardware themes generally retreated, with CPO and GPU sectors leading the decline; stablecoins, military industry, and semiconductor stocks also saw significant drops [1] - Conversely, AI applications, photovoltaic, innovative pharmaceuticals, and smart logistics sectors were active [1] ETF Highlights - The Guangfa Fund's Hang Seng Consumer ETF rose by 4.69% [1] - The photovoltaic sector showed strength, with Guangfa Fund's Photovoltaic ETF, Guotai Fund's Photovoltaic 50 ETF, and Huashan Fund's Photovoltaic ETF Index Fund increasing by 2.53%, 1.94%, and 1.94% respectively [1] - The traditional Chinese medicine sector was active, with Yinhua Fund's Traditional Chinese Medicine 50 ETF and Huitianfu Fund's Traditional Chinese Medicine ETF rising by 2.36% and 1.89% respectively [1] International Market Trends - Overnight oil prices declined, leading to a drop of over 5% in Sinopec's stock, and the oil and gas resource ETF fell by 4.18% [1] - The South Korean stock market also declined, with the South Korea Semiconductor ETF down 3.38% [1] - European stock markets closed at their lowest in over a week, with France's CAC40 ETF and Germany's ETF down 2.44% and 2.2% respectively [1] - U.S. stocks experienced a pullback after an initial rise, with the U.S. 50 ETF and Nasdaq ETF both down by 2% [1] - Military stocks were among the biggest losers, with the aerospace and defense ETF down 2.31% [1]

光大证券指出，二季度油价快速下跌，成品油需求持续下行，化工景气度复苏不及预期，下调公司25- 27年盈利预测，预计公司25-27年归母净利润分别为453(下调15.4%)/555(下调3.1%)/662(下调7.6%)亿 元，对应的EPS分别为0.37、0.46、0.55元/股。公司坚守长期主义，前瞻性布局新能源、新材料业务， 未来随着化工景气度整体向好，公司新产能逐步投产，新能源布局落地，业绩有望增厚，我们看好公司 长期成长前景，因此维持A股和H股的"买入"评级。 消息面上，中国石化（600028）发布业绩预告，按中国企业会计准则，预计2025年上半年实现净利润 201亿至216亿元人民币，同比下跌39.5%至43.7%。单看第二季度，公司预计实现归母净利润68亿至83 亿元，同比下降52.1%至60.7%，环比下降37.2%至48.5%，主要受国际原油价格大幅下跌、石油石化市 场竞争激烈、化工市场毛利低迷等因素影响， 中石化(00386)今日低开低走，午后跌幅扩大逾5%。截至发稿，跌5.65%，报4.34港元，成交额14.44亿 港元。 ...

中石化安全工程研究院有限公司，成立于2021年，位于青岛市，是一家以从事研究和试验发展为主的企 业。企业注册资本49900万人民币。通过天眼查大数据分析，中石化安全工程研究院有限公司共对外投 资了4家企业，参与招投标项目1374次，财产线索方面有商标信息15条，专利信息1821条，此外企业还 拥有行政许可15个。 天眼查资料显示，中国石油化工股份有限公司，成立于2000年，位于北京市，是一家以从事石油和天然 气开采业为主的企业。企业注册资本12173968.9893万人民币。通过天眼查大数据分析，中国石油化工 股份有限公司共对外投资了263家企业，参与招投标项目5000次，财产线索方面有商标信息45条，专利 信息5000条，此外企业还拥有行政许可40个。 金融界2025年8月1日消息，国家知识产权局信息显示，中国石油化工股份有限公司、中石化安全工程研 究院有限公司取得一项名为"涂覆刀片电极的方法、刀片电极、滑动弧等离子体反应器和等离子体转化 甲烷的方法"的专利，授权公告号CN116313715B，申请日期为2021年12月。 来源：金融界 ...