丨证券研究报告丨 公司研究丨点评报告丨中国石化（600028.SH） [Table_Title] 炼油化工承压业绩下滑，高分红重视股东回报 research.95579.com 1 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 中国石化发布 2025 年一季报，2025 年第一季度，公司实现总营业收入 7,353.56 亿元，同比 减少 6.91%；实现利润总额达到 182.52 亿元，同比减少 32.6%；实现归母净利润 132.64 亿 元，同比减少 27.58%。上游增储稳油增气，降本增效取得新进展；炼化业务以效益为导向，低 成本应对市场变化；成品油销售业务发挥一体化优势，打造"油气氢电服"综合能源服务商； 重视股东回报，2024 年现金分红率达到 69%。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 魏凯 王岭峰 SAC：S0490520080009 SAC：S0490521080001 SFC：BUT964 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% 中国石化（600028.SH） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] 炼油化工承压业绩下滑，高分红重视股东回报 [Table_ ...

股票代码：600028 股票简称：中国石化 公告编号：2025-20 中国石油化工股份有限公司（简称"本公司"或"中国石化"）董事会于 2025 年 4 月 30 日收到喻宝才先生的辞职报告，喻宝才先生为中国石化执行董事、高 级副总裁，原定任期至 2027 年 6 月，现因年龄原因辞去中国石化执行董事、高 级副总裁职务。喻宝才先生辞职后将不在中国石化及其子公司任职，亦不存在未 履行完毕的公开承诺。 喻宝才先生的辞职不会导致本公司董事会成员低于法定人数，喻宝才先生将 按照本公司相关管理制度做好交接工作。喻宝才先生确认其与中国石化董事会无 不同意见，亦无任何有关其辞任须提请中国石化股东注意的事宜。 中国石油化工股份有限公司 关于董事离任的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 黄文生 2025 年 4 月 30 日 喻宝才先生在任职期间勤勉尽责，本公司董事会对他的辛勤工作及做出的贡 献表示衷心感谢！ 特此公告。 承董事会命 副总裁、董事会秘书 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Sinopec (600028.SH) [6] Core Views - The exploration and development segment showed a slight increase in production, but overall profits declined due to lower prices and costs [1][2] - The refining business faced significant profit declines due to weak diesel demand and reduced refining margins [2] - The marketing and distribution segment experienced a drop in refined oil sales, although vehicle LNG sales saw substantial growth [2] - The chemical segment demonstrated effective cost reduction strategies, leading to a reduction in losses [3] - Shareholder confidence is highlighted by the recent share buyback plan initiated by the controlling shareholder [3] Summary by Sections Exploration and Development - In Q1 2025, Sinopec achieved an oil and gas equivalent production of 130.97 million barrels, a year-on-year increase of 1.7% - Crude oil production was 69.53 million barrels, down 1.2% year-on-year, while natural gas production rose by 5.1% to 3,684 billion cubic feet - The average realized price for crude oil was $71.5 per barrel, down 5.2% year-on-year, and for natural gas, it was $7.6 per thousand cubic feet, down 3.5% - Cash operating costs for oil and gas were $14.4 per barrel equivalent, a decrease of 5.3% year-on-year, resulting in an EBIT of 13.63 billion yuan, down 8% year-on-year [1] Refining - The refining segment produced 16.18 million tons of gasoline, 12.70 million tons of diesel, and 8.31 million tons of kerosene, with diesel production down 13.9% year-on-year - The refining margin was $6.2 per barrel, a decline of 13.3% year-on-year, leading to an EBIT of 2.39 billion yuan, down 65.3% year-on-year [2] Marketing and Distribution - Total refined oil sales were 55.59 million tons, a decrease of 7.1% year-on-year, with domestic and international sales down 5.3% and 12.7% respectively - Vehicle LNG retail sales reached 2.05 billion cubic meters, a significant increase of 116% year-on-year - The cash cost per ton of oil sold was 186.2 yuan, a slight increase of 2.6% year-on-year, resulting in an EBIT of 4.87 billion yuan, down 43.9% year-on-year [2] Chemical - The chemical segment's total operating volume was 19.97 million tons, up 2.4% year-on-year, with ethylene, synthetic resin, and fiber monomer and polymer production increasing by 17.7%, 17.4%, and 27.0% respectively - The unit cost for chemicals was 1,193 yuan per ton, down 12.9% year-on-year, leading to an EBIT loss of 1.32 billion yuan, a reduction in losses compared to previous periods [3] Shareholder Confidence - On April 8, 2025, the controlling shareholder announced plans to increase its stake in Sinopec A-shares and H-shares within 12 months, with 24.73 million shares already acquired by April 25, 2025, reflecting confidence in the company's future [3] Financial Forecast - Expected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected at 46.38 billion yuan, 50.08 billion yuan, and 52.39 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.38 yuan, 0.41 yuan, and 0.43 yuan per share [4][5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Sinopec (600028.SH) is "Buy" [1][4] Core Views - The report indicates that short-term profitability remains under pressure, with the refining segment awaiting recovery [3] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a year-on-year decline in revenue and net profit, but a significant quarter-on-quarter improvement [1][3] - The company is focusing on high-quality exploration and development, with steady increases in oil and gas equivalent production [3] - The refining segment is enhancing cost reduction and efficiency, with a notable increase in chemical plant load [3][4] Financial Performance Summary - For Q1 2025, Sinopec reported revenue of CNY 735.36 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 6.91% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.86% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 13.26 billion, down 27.58% year-on-year but up 118.66% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The company achieved an oil and gas equivalent production of 130.97 million barrels, a year-on-year increase of 1.7% [3] - The average Brent oil price in Q1 2025 was USD 75 per barrel, down 8% year-on-year but up 1% quarter-on-quarter [3] Segment Performance Summary - Exploration and production segment generated CNY 11.7 billion in operating income, down 10% year-on-year but up 8% quarter-on-quarter [3] - The refining segment reported an operating income of CNY 2 billion, down 44% year-on-year but up 14% quarter-on-quarter [3] - The marketing segment achieved CNY 4 billion in operating income, down 40% year-on-year but up 29% quarter-on-quarter [3] - The chemical segment incurred an operating loss of CNY 1.4 billion, but showed a significant reduction in losses quarter-on-quarter [3] Profit Forecast - The forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is CNY 51.99 billion, CNY 53.86 billion, and CNY 57.01 billion respectively, with growth rates of 3.3%, 3.6%, and 5.9% [4] - The expected EPS for the same period is CNY 0.43, CNY 0.44, and CNY 0.47, corresponding to P/E ratios of 13.13, 12.68, and 11.98 [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Sinopec (600028) is maintained as "Buy" with a target price indicating a potential return of over 20% within the next six months [6][16]. Core Views - The report indicates that Sinopec's Q1 2025 performance slightly exceeded expectations, with revenue reaching 735.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.91%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 13.3 billion yuan, down 27.58% year-on-year [1]. - The decline in oil and gas prices has significantly pressured the sector's profits, with oil equivalent production at 131 million barrels, a year-on-year increase of 1.7%, while crude oil production decreased by 0.8% [2]. - Concerns over peak demand for refined oil have led to continued pressure on refining profits, with refining throughput at 6.2 million tons, down 1.8% year-on-year, and total refined oil sales at 5.6 million tons, down 7.1% year-on-year [3]. Financial Performance and Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is set at 55.5 billion, 56.2 billion, and 61.7 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 12, 12, and 11 times [4]. - The expected dividend yield for A shares in 2025 is projected at 5.6%, while H shares are expected to yield 9.0% [4]. - Financial data shows a projected revenue of 3,136.05 million yuan for 2025, with a growth rate of 2.00% [5]. Market Position and Valuation - Sinopec's current market capitalization is approximately 555.2 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of about 541.5 billion yuan [6]. - The company's price-to-earnings ratio is forecasted to be 12.47 for 2025, with a price-to-book ratio of 0.80 [5][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both A and H shares of Sinopec [1] Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 performance shows significant improvement on a quarter-on-quarter basis, with a reduction in losses in the chemical segment year-on-year [7] - The upstream segment's profit has narrowed, while the downstream refining sector has not yet recovered, but the chemical segment has shown a reduction in losses [7] - The company emphasizes shareholder returns, with a projected dividend yield of 5.8% for A shares and 7.2% for H shares after tax [7] - The report forecasts net profits for 2025-2027 to be 546 billion, 603 billion, and 655 billion RMB respectively, indicating a positive outlook for the company's profitability [7] Financial Performance Summary - For Q1 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 735.4 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 7% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4% [7] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q1 2025 was 13.3 billion RMB, down 28% year-on-year but up 119% quarter-on-quarter [7] - The report projects total revenue for 2023 to be 3,212.2 billion RMB, with a year-on-year decline of 3.19% [1] - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 0.45 RMB, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 12.68 for A shares [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company [9][10]. Core Views - The company's Q1 revenue was 735.4 billion RMB, showing a decrease of 7% quarter-on-quarter but an increase of 4% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 13.3 billion RMB, which was above expectations due to reduced losses in the chemical segment and better-than-expected performance in non-oil marketing [1]. - The report highlights that traditional business profitability is under pressure, while non-oil business shows promising growth [1]. - The refining segment's profitability is under pressure due to high crude oil inventory, leading to a significant decline in refining margins [3]. - The marketing segment's profit declined due to weak domestic demand for refined oil products, although non-oil business profits increased [4]. - The chemical segment has reduced losses and is expected to benefit from a market recovery [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 revenue was 735.4 billion RMB, with a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 7% and a year-on-year increase of 4%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 13.3 billion RMB, with a significant year-on-year increase of 119% [1]. - Q1 crude oil production was 69.5 million barrels, down 1.2% year-on-year, while natural gas production increased by 5.1% to 368.4 billion cubic feet [2]. - The refining segment processed 62.1 million tons of crude oil, down 1.8% year-on-year, with refining margins narrowing to 6.2 USD per barrel, a decrease of 13.9% [3]. Segment Analysis - The marketing segment saw total domestic refined oil sales of 43.2 million tons, down 5.3% year-on-year, with retail sales declining by 6.4% [4]. - The chemical segment produced 386, 568, and 260 million tons of ethylene, synthetic resin, and synthetic fiber respectively, with year-on-year increases of 18%, 17%, and 27% [5]. Profitability Forecast - The report forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 53.9 billion, 58.8 billion, and 61.6 billion RMB respectively, with EPS projected at 0.44, 0.48, and 0.51 RMB [6]. - The target prices are set at 6.82 RMB and 4.73 HKD for A and H shares respectively, based on a PE ratio of 15.5 and 10.0 for 2025 [6].

中国石化回应投资收益亏损38亿元：系衍生品结算会计表现及下游联合营公司业绩影响 金十数据4月29日讯，在2025年第一季度业绩说明会上，中国石化财务总监寿东华回应公司一季度投资 收益同比下降69.9%至16.47亿元、亏损38.25亿元时表示，中国石化开展商品类金融衍生品业务符合金 融衍生品业务的监管要求，配合实货经营需求，运行规范，实现了平抑价格波动、防范市场风险的目 标。一季度公司衍生品业务经营健康稳健，投资收益中的套期保值业务盈亏变动是衍生品业务结算在会 计上的体现。另外，中国石化联合营公司主要以下游业务为主，一季度业绩同比有所下降。 （一财） ...

今天，我怀着庄重与忐忑的心情，接过中国石油和化学工业联合会会长这一"接力棒"。我深知，这一重担承载着组织的信 任，承载着行业的期待，承载着沉甸甸的责任。在此，我谨向所有关心支持行业发展的各级领导、合作伙伴和同仁致以最 诚挚的感谢！我将一如既往地与大家并肩作战，不负信任，不负期望，不辱使命。 借此机会，我谈几点感想和思考，请大家指正。 时刻铭记责任使命，在强化"四个服务"中彰显中国石化联价值追求 石油和化学工业作为国民经济的重要支柱产业，是实现中国式现代化的重要支撑力量，对国家经济发展、社会稳定、国防 安全起着至关重要的保障作用，这一关键地位也决定了石油和化学工业是中国石化联生存发展的根基所在、使命所在、目 标所在。 习近平总书记多次视察石油化工企业，发表了一系列重要讲话，提出了一系列明确要求和重要指示，精准阐明了石油化工 行业的责任使命与战略定位。习近平总书记强调"能源的饭碗必须端在自己手里"，凸显能源安全对于国家发展的极端重要 性；指出"石化产业是国民经济的重要支柱产业"，进一步明确石化产业在经济体系中的关键地位；殷切期望行业"为保障国 家能源安全、推动石化工业高质量发展作出新贡献"，以及"加快推进能源生产 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [9][10] Core Views - The company's Q1 revenue was 735.4 billion RMB, showing a decrease of 7% quarter-on-quarter but an increase of 4% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 13.3 billion RMB, which is a decrease of 28% quarter-on-quarter but an increase of 119% year-on-year [1] - The report highlights that the traditional business faces profit pressure, while non-oil business shows promising performance. The chemical sector has reduced losses, and the marketing segment's non-oil business has exceeded expectations [1][4][5] - The report maintains a positive outlook for the company's profitability recovery in the refining industry post-2025, supported by its integrated advantages and transformation into new materials [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 oil production was 69.5 million barrels, down 1.2% year-on-year, with an average oil price of 71.5 USD/barrel, down 5.2%. Natural gas production increased by 5.1% to 368.4 billion cubic feet [2] - The refining segment's Q1 operating profit dropped significantly by 44.3 billion RMB to 19.8 billion RMB due to high oil inventory costs, with refining margins narrowing to 6.2 USD/barrel, down 13.9% year-on-year [3] - The marketing segment's total domestic refined oil sales decreased by 5.3% year-on-year, leading to a profit drop of 39.8 billion RMB to 39.7 billion RMB [4] Chemical Sector - The chemical segment's production of ethylene, synthetic resin, and fiber monomers increased by 18%, 17%, and 27% year-on-year, respectively. The segment's losses were reduced by 4.7 billion RMB year-on-year [5] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 53.9 billion RMB, 58.8 billion RMB, and 61.6 billion RMB, respectively, with EPS projected at 0.44, 0.48, and 0.51 RMB [6] - The target prices are set at 6.82 RMB for A-shares and 4.73 HKD for H-shares, reflecting a valuation of 15.5x PE for 2025 [6]