Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the basic chemical industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the price increases of lithium carbonate and photoinitiators, suggesting a potential recovery in the chemical industry driven by anti-involution trends [1] - The basic chemical sector has shown strong relative performance, with a 39.4% increase over the past 12 months compared to the 25.7% increase in the CSI 300 index [3] Summary by Sections Recent Trends - The report notes a decline in the Guohai Chemical Prosperity Index to 92.75 as of August 14, 2025, down 0.11 from August 7, 2025 [4] Investment Recommendations - Key opportunities identified include: 1. Low-cost expansion in companies such as Wanhua Chemical, Satellite Chemical, and others [5] 2. Improvement in industry prosperity for chromium salts, phosphate rock, and various chemical sectors [6] 3. Focus on new materials with high growth potential and low domestic substitution rates [7] 4. High dividend opportunities in state-owned enterprises like China Petroleum and Sinopec [8] Price Analysis of Key Products - Industrial-grade lithium carbonate price increased by 9.93% to 83,000 CNY/ton [10] - Photoinitiator (TPO) price rose by 5.56% to 95 CNY/kg [10] - Polyester filament price increased by 2.16% to 7,100 CNY/ton [10] Company Performance Tracking - Notable companies such as Zhenhua Co. reported a 10.17% increase in revenue for the first half of 2025 [13] - Wanhua Chemical's pure MDI price was reported at 17,900 CNY/ton, with a slight increase [11] Market Observations - The report indicates a potential inventory replenishment cycle in the chemical sector due to anticipated fiscal policy support in China and the US [29]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the petrochemical industry, particularly for polyester and refining companies, suggesting potential investment opportunities in leading firms such as Tongkun Co. and Hengli Petrochemical [17][18]. Core Insights - The EIA forecasts a global crude oil supply surplus of 1.64 million barrels per day for the current year, with adjustments made to oil and natural gas price predictions [4][15]. - The IEA and OPEC have both revised their global oil demand growth estimates for 2025 and 2026, with IEA projecting increases of 680,000 and 700,000 barrels per day respectively, while OPEC expects increases of 1.29 million and 1.38 million barrels per day [8][44]. - The report highlights a recovery in the drilling day rates for offshore rigs, indicating a positive trend in the oil service sector [22][37]. Summary by Sections Supply and Demand - EIA expects global oil and liquid fuel consumption to rise by 980,000 barrels per day in 2025, reaching 103.7 million barrels per day, and by 1.19 million barrels per day in 2026 [46]. - Global oil supply is projected to increase by 2.28 million barrels per day in 2025, with OPEC+ contributing approximately 610,000 barrels per day to this growth [12][46]. Price Predictions - EIA has adjusted its forecast for 2025 average crude oil prices to $67 per barrel, down by $2 from previous estimates, and $51 per barrel for 2026, down by $7 [4][47]. - The report notes a decline in refining margins, with Singapore's refining margin dropping to $15.07 per barrel [51]. Industry Performance - The report emphasizes the recovery potential in the polyester sector, with expectations of improved profitability as supply and demand dynamics stabilize [17]. - Key companies in the refining sector, such as Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical, are highlighted as having favorable competitive positions due to lower operational costs and market conditions [17][18].

| 代码 | 简称 | 股价 | | EPS（元） | | | PE（倍） | | 评级 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | （元） | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | | | 601857.SH 中国石油 | | 8.63 | 0.90 | 0.78 | 0.84 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 推荐 | | 600938.SH 中国海油 | | 25.72 | 2.90 | 2.67 | 2.75 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 推荐 | | 600028.SH 中国石化 | | 5.68 | 0.41 | 0.38 | 0.41 | 14 | 15 | 14 | 推荐 | | 603619.SH 中曼石油 | | 19.77 | 1.76 | 1.93 | 2.29 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 推荐 | | 603393.SH 新天然气 | | 30.31 | 2.80 | 3.49 | 3.75 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 推荐 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Crude Oil Weekly Report: Increase in US Crude Oil Inventory and Decline in International Oil Prices [1] - Report Date: August 17, 2025 [1] - Chief Analyst: Chen Shuxian [1] - Analyst: Zhou Shaowen [1] Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - This week, the weekly average prices of Brent/WTI crude oil futures were $66.2/$63.3 per barrel, down $1.0/$1.4 per barrel from last week. The total US crude oil inventory, commercial crude oil inventory, strategic crude oil inventory, and Cushing crude oil inventory were 8.3/4.3/4.0/0.2 billion barrels, with a week-on-week increase of 3.26/3.04/0.23/0.05 million barrels respectively. The US crude oil production was 13.33 million barrels per day, up 40,000 barrels per day week-on-week. The number of active US crude oil rigs this week was 412, an increase of 1 from the previous week. The number of active US fracturing fleets this week was 163, an increase of 4 from the previous week. The US refinery crude oil processing volume was 17.18 million barrels per day, up 60,000 barrels per day week-on-week, and the US refinery crude oil operating rate was 96.4%, down 0.5 pct week-on-week [2]. - The weekly average prices of US gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel were $87/$95/$90 per barrel, down $0.3/$0.9/$4.1 per barrel week-on-week. The spreads with crude oil were $21/$29/$24 per barrel, up $1.1/$0.4/ -$2.7 per barrel week-on-week. The US gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene inventories were 2.3/1.1/0.4 billion barrels, with a week-on-week change of -0.79/+0.71/ -0.62 million barrels respectively. The US gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene production were 9.81/5.14/1.97 million barrels per day, with a week-on-week change of +10,000/+30,000/ -20,000 barrels per day respectively. The US gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene consumption were 9.00/3.70/1.83 million barrels per day, with a week-on-week change of -40,000/ -20,000/+120,000 barrels per day respectively. The net exports of US gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene were 0.58/1.33/0.23 million barrels per day, with a week-on-week change of -0.25/ -0.13/+0.09 million barrels per day respectively [2]. - Recommended companies include CNOOC Limited (600938.SH/0883.HK), PetroChina Company Limited (601857.SH/0857.HK), Sinopec Corporation (600028.SH/0386.HK), CNOOC Oilfield Services Limited (601808.SH), Offshore Oil Engineering Co., Ltd. (600583.SH), and CNOOC Energy Technology & Services Limited (600968.SH). Companies to be noted include Sinopec Oilfield Service Corporation (600871.SH/1033.HK), China National Petroleum Corporation Engineering Co., Ltd. (600339.SH), and Sinopec Mechanical Engineering Co., Ltd. (000852.SZ) [3] Summary by Directory 1. Crude Oil Weekly Data Briefing - Upstream Key Company Price Changes: Among the upstream key companies, the Hong Kong - listed shares of some companies such as China National Offshore Oil Corporation and PetroChina Company Limited showed an upward trend in the near - week, near - month, and near - three - month periods, while some A - shares showed a downward trend [9] - Key Company Valuations: The report provides the total market capitalization,归母净利润, PE, and PB of key companies from 2024A to 2027E [9] - Crude Oil Sector: The weekly average prices of Brent, WTI, Russian Urals, and Russian ESPO crude oils were $66.2, $63.3, $61.9, and $62.8 per barrel respectively, all showing a week - on - week decline. The US dollar index was 97.8, down 1.0 week - on - week. The LME copper spot price was $9,165.0 per ton, down $411.5 week - on - week [9] - Inventory Sector: The US total crude oil inventory, commercial crude oil inventory, strategic crude oil inventory, and Cushing crude oil inventory all increased week - on - week [9] - Production Sector: The US crude oil production, the number of crude oil rigs, and the number of fracturing fleets all increased week - on - week [9] - Refinery Sector: The US refinery crude oil processing volume increased week - on - week, while the operating rate decreased. The operating rates of Chinese local refineries and major refineries showed different trends [9] - Import and Export Sector: The US crude oil net imports increased week - on - week [9] 2. This Week's Petroleum and Petrochemical Sector Market Review - Petroleum and Petrochemical Sector Performance: No specific performance data provided, only the topic is mentioned [14] - Sector Listed Company Performance: The report lists the latest prices, total market capitalizations, and price changes in different time periods of multiple listed companies in the petroleum and petrochemical sector, as well as their valuations [26][28] 3. Crude Oil Sector Data Tracking - Crude Oil Price: It involves the price and spread relationships between different types of crude oils such as Brent, WTI, Russian Urals, and Russian ESPO, as well as the relationships between the US dollar index, LME copper price, and WTI crude oil price [32][41][42] - Crude Oil Inventory: It shows the historical data and trends of the US commercial crude oil inventory, total crude oil inventory, strategic crude oil inventory, and Cushing crude oil inventory, as well as their correlations with oil prices [49][54][63] - Crude Oil Supply: The US crude oil production, the number of crude oil rigs, and the number of fracturing fleets are tracked [68] - Crude Oil Demand: The US refinery crude oil processing volume, operating rate, and the operating rates of Chinese local and major refineries are presented [76][79][83] - Crude Oil Import and Export: The US crude oil import, export, and net import volumes are tracked [87][91] 4. Refined Oil Product Sector Data Tracking - Refined Oil Product Price: When the international crude oil price is above $80 per barrel, the increase in domestic gasoline and diesel prices slows down. The report also shows the price and spread relationships between crude oil and refined oil products in different regions such as China, the US, Europe, and Singapore [97][124][130] - Refined Oil Product Inventory: The inventories of gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene in the US and Singapore are tracked, along with their week - on - week and year - on - year changes [138][144][149] - Refined Oil Product Supply: The productions of gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene in the US are presented [157][158] - Refined Oil Product Demand: The consumptions of gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene in the US are tracked, along with the number of US airport passenger security checks [161][162] - Refined Oil Product Import and Export: The import, export, and net export volumes of gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene in the US are tracked [175][179][180] 5. Oilfield Service Sector Data Tracking - The report provides the weekly average, monthly average, quarterly average, and year - to - date average daily fees of self - elevating drilling platforms and semi - submersible drilling platforms [10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the financial situation of Sinopec, highlighting its significant debt of 1.1 trillion RMB and the challenges it faces in the oil market, while also emphasizing its strategic investments in new energy and materials to adapt to changing market conditions [1][10][16]. Group 1: Financial Situation - Sinopec has a debt of 1.1 trillion RMB, which is primarily a result of "debt financing" to invest in long-term projects such as new refineries and energy facilities [3][10]. - In 2022, Sinopec's refining and chemical sector invested 81.5 billion RMB, a 10% increase from the previous year, indicating ongoing capital expenditures [8]. - The company faces pressure from international oil price fluctuations, with prices soaring above 100 USD per barrel in 2022, impacting its profit margins [6][10]. Group 2: Oil Production and Consumption - In 2023, China's crude oil production was 209 million tons, while consumption reached 773 million tons, necessitating Sinopec to purchase crude oil to meet domestic demand [5][6]. - Sinopec operates one of the largest refining facilities globally, with a refining capacity of 240 million tons in 2022, but this comes with high maintenance costs [8]. Group 3: Taxation and Pricing Mechanism - The domestic oil price is capped when international prices exceed 130 USD per barrel, limiting Sinopec's profit margins and forcing it to cover the difference [10]. - Taxes account for over 40% of the retail price of gasoline, which constrains the extent to which prices can be lowered even when crude oil prices decrease [10]. Group 4: Strategic Initiatives - Sinopec is actively expanding into the new energy sector, with 12.86 million electric vehicles sold in 2024 and a projected market penetration rate increase from 25.6% to 45% over two years [12]. - The company has invested over 10 billion RMB in high-end materials research in 2022, focusing on high-performance polymers and composite materials for various applications, including the electric vehicle market [14].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant breakthrough in China's energy sector, specifically regarding the "Deep Earth Engineering · Sichuan-Chongqing Natural Gas Base" project, which has discovered a substantial geological reserve of shale gas in the Yongchuan area of Chongqing, marking a new milestone in the country's energy development [2][4]. Summary by Sections Breakthrough in Shale Gas Exploration - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) has confirmed an additional geological reserve of 124.588 billion cubic meters in the Yongchuan shale gas field, which has been approved by the Ministry of Natural Resources [2][4]. - The total proven geological reserves of the Yongchuan shale gas field now stand at 148.041 billion cubic meters, showcasing the potential of deep shale gas resources in the Sichuan Basin [4]. Strategic Importance - The Yongchuan shale gas field is located in a complex geological area of the Sichuan Basin, with the main section buried deeper than 3,500 meters, making exploration challenging [4][5]. - The development of shale gas is crucial for ensuring energy security in China, which has a resource profile characterized by "rich coal, poor oil, and scarce gas" [7]. Growth in Shale Gas Production - In 2022, China's shale gas production exceeded 25 billion cubic meters, accounting for 10% of the total natural gas output, which reached 2,464 billion cubic meters [8]. - The country has significant shale gas resources, with a recoverable resource estimate of 21.8 trillion cubic meters, ranking first globally, although the current exploration rate is only 4.79% [7][8]. Future Development Plans - Sinopec plans to continue advancing shale gas development in the Sichuan Basin, aiming to enhance the recovery rate and production efficiency of gas fields [5]. - The company has achieved over 1,200 national patent authorizations related to key technologies in the natural gas industry, which are expected to support cost reduction and efficiency improvements in shale gas production [8].

Core Viewpoint - The discovery of the Yongchuan shale gas field in Sichuan Basin, with newly confirmed geological reserves of 124.588 billion cubic meters, marks the successful identification of another large-scale deep shale gas field in China, which will effectively support the construction of a 100 billion cubic meter production capacity base in the Sichuan-Chongqing region and provide clean energy for the development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt [2][4]. Group 1 - The Yongchuan shale gas field is located in Yongchuan District, Chongqing, within the complex structural area of the southern Sichuan Basin, with a main burial depth exceeding 3,500 meters, representing a typical deep shale gas reservoir [4]. - In 2016, the Yongchuan shale gas field was discovered following a significant breakthrough at the Yongyue 1HF well [4]. - By 2019, the confirmed geological reserves of the gas field reached 23.453 billion cubic meters, and subsequent exploration efforts led to an increase in overall confirmed geological reserves to 148.041 billion cubic meters [6]. Group 2 - The Deputy General Manager of Sinopec Southwest Petroleum Bureau, Xiong Liang, stated that a large amount of high-precision three-dimensional seismic data for deep shale gas has been collected, leading to the development of new structural display mapping technology and high-precision imaging technology [8]. - The next steps involve a strategy of constructing, evaluating, and tackling challenges in the development of shale gas in the southern Sichuan region, laying the resource foundation for achieving a production target of 3 billion cubic meters during the 14th Five-Year Plan [8].

Group 1 - The provincial secretary emphasizes the need to implement Xi Jinping's important speeches and directives, focusing on economic stability and development confidence [1][2] - The company Shandong Jizhi Technology Co., Ltd. is encouraged to enhance R&D investment in artificial intelligence and promote the integration of technological and industrial innovation [1] - Qingdao Special Steel Co., Ltd. is advised to improve product quality and structure, aiming for high-end, intelligent, and green development [1] - Sinopec Qingdao Refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. is urged to advance green low-carbon transformation and expand into hydrogen energy development [1] Group 2 - The overall economic situation in Qingdao is stable, but there are still challenges that need to be addressed [2] - The third quarter is critical for achieving annual economic goals, with a focus on major project construction and improving service sectors [2] - Emphasis on risk prevention and safety measures in key areas, including production safety and flood prevention [2] - The need for enhanced reform and innovation to contribute to the overall development of the province [2]

Core Viewpoint - Yangzi Petrochemical has successfully produced a new EVA (ethylene-vinyl acetate copolymer) semiconductive shielding material, UE1930TK, becoming one of the few domestic companies capable of producing this product [2] Group 1: Product Development - Yangzi Petrochemical completed trial production of a new high-acetic acid content, low melt index EVA cable material, UE2850TK, on June 13, with all performance indicators meeting standards [2] - The new product enhances the EVA product structure and market competitiveness, primarily used in halogen-free flame-retardant cable applications, which are currently dominated by imported materials [2] - Compared to conventional EVA cable materials, the new product has a further reduced melt index, offering superior processing performance [2] Group 2: Industry Context - The demand for high-end wires and cables is rapidly increasing, particularly in electric vehicle charging stations and ultra-high voltage power grids [3] - EVA is widely used in low-smoke halogen-free cable materials due to safety concerns regarding harmful gases produced by PVC cables during combustion [3] - EVA serves as a base resin in low-smoke halogen-free materials, typically comprising 10%-30% of the formulation, and is often blended with other materials like PE to enhance strength [3] Group 3: Material Properties - EVA semiconductive shielding materials are critical for medium and high-voltage power cable shielding layers, ensuring uniform electric field distribution and preventing partial discharge [2] - The material exhibits excellent impact resistance, stress crack resistance, flexibility, high elasticity, and chemical stability, aligning with the green cable development trend [2]

Group 1 - As of August 15, 2025, Sinopec's stock price is 5.68 yuan, down 0.01 yuan from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 1,319,957 lots and a transaction amount of 749 million yuan [1] - Sinopec is a major energy and chemical enterprise in China, engaged in oil and gas exploration and development, pipeline transportation, oil refining, petrochemicals, and retail of refined oil products, covering the entire industry chain with a comprehensive marketing network domestically and internationally [1] - The company will hold a semi-annual performance briefing on August 22, 2025, where management will address investor concerns [1] Group 2 - Sinopec has made significant breakthroughs in deep shale gas exploration in the Sichuan Basin, adding proven geological reserves of 124.588 billion cubic meters [1] - On August 15, the net outflow of main funds was 56.8508 million yuan, with a cumulative net outflow of 52.4186 million yuan over the past five days [1]