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机器学习因子选股月报(2026年1月)-20251231
Southwest Securities· 2025-12-31 02:04
Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: GAN_GRU - **Model Construction Idea**: The GAN_GRU model combines Generative Adversarial Networks (GAN) for feature generation and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) for time-series feature encoding to construct a stock selection factor[4][13][14] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. **GAN Component**: - The generator (G) learns the real data distribution and generates realistic samples from random noise \( z \) (Gaussian or uniform distribution). The generator's loss function is: $$ L_{G} = -\mathbb{E}_{z\sim P_{z}(z)}[\log(D(G(z)))] $$ where \( D(G(z)) \) represents the discriminator's probability of classifying generated data as real[24][25][26] - The discriminator (D) distinguishes real data from generated data. Its loss function is: $$ L_{D} = -\mathbb{E}_{x\sim P_{data}(x)}[\log D(x)] - \mathbb{E}_{z\sim P_{z}(z)}[\log(1-D(G(z)))] $$ where \( D(x) \) is the probability of real data being classified as real, and \( D(G(z)) \) is the probability of generated data being classified as real[27][29][30] - GAN training alternates between optimizing \( G \) and \( D \) until convergence[30] 2. **GRU Component**: - Two GRU layers (GRU(128, 128)) are used to encode time-series features, followed by a Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) with layers (256, 64, 64) to predict returns. The final output \( pRet \) is used as the stock selection factor[22] 3. **Feature Input and Processing**: - Input features include 18 price-volume characteristics (e.g., closing price, turnover, etc.) sampled over the past 400 days, with a shape of \( 40 \times 18 \) (40 days of features)[18][19][37] - Features undergo outlier removal, standardization, and cross-sectional normalization[18] 4. **Training Details**: - Training-validation split: 80%-20% - Semi-annual rolling training (June 30 and December 31 each year) - Hyperparameters: batch size equals the number of stocks, Adam optimizer, learning rate \( 1e-4 \), IC loss function, early stopping (10 rounds), max training rounds (50)[18] 5. **Stock Selection**: - Stocks are filtered to exclude ST stocks and those listed for less than six months[18] - **Model Evaluation**: The GAN_GRU model effectively captures price-volume time-series features and demonstrates strong predictive power for stock returns[4][13][22] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. GAN_GRU Model - **IC Mean**: 0.1119*** (2019-2025)[4][41] - **ICIR (non-annualized)**: 0.89[42] - **Turnover Rate**: 0.83X[42] - **Recent IC**: 0.0331*** (December 2025)[4][41] - **1-Year IC Mean**: 0.0669***[4][41] - **Annualized Return**: 37.40%[42] - **Annualized Volatility**: 23.39%[42] - **IR**: 1.60[42] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 27.29%[42] - **Annualized Excess Return**: 22.42%[4][42] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: GAN_GRU Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: The GAN_GRU factor is derived from the GAN_GRU model, leveraging GAN for price-volume feature generation and GRU for time-series encoding[4][13][14] - **Factor Construction Process**: - The GAN generator processes raw price-volume time-series features (\( Input\_Shape = 40 \times 18 \)) and outputs transformed features with the same shape (\( Input\_Shape = 40 \times 18 \))[37] - The GRU component encodes these features into a predictive factor for stock selection[22] - The factor undergoes industry and market capitalization neutralization and standardization[22] - **Factor Evaluation**: The GAN_GRU factor demonstrates robust performance across various industries and time periods, with significant IC values and excess returns[4][41] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. GAN_GRU Factor - **IC Mean**: 0.1119*** (2019-2025)[4][41] - **ICIR (non-annualized)**: 0.89[42] - **Turnover Rate**: 0.83X[42] - **Recent IC**: 0.0331*** (December 2025)[4][41] - **1-Year IC Mean**: 0.0669***[4][41] - **Annualized Return**: 37.40%[42] - **Annualized Volatility**: 23.39%[42] - **IR**: 1.60[42] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 27.29%[42] - **Annualized Excess Return**: 22.42%[4][42] 2. Industry-Specific Performance - **Top 5 Industries by Recent IC (October 2025)**: - Social Services: 0.4243*** - Coal: 0.2643*** - Environmental Protection: 0.2262*** - Retail: 0.1888*** - Steel: 0.1812***[4][41][42] - **Top 5 Industries by 1-Year IC Mean**: - Social Services: 0.1303*** - Steel: 0.1154*** - Non-Bank Financials: 0.1157*** - Retail: 0.1067*** - Building Materials: 0.1017***[4][41][42] 3. Industry-Specific Excess Returns - **Top 5 Industries by December 2025 Excess Returns**: - Banking: 4.30% - Real Estate: 3.51% - Environmental Protection: 2.18% - Retail: 1.76% - Machinery: 1.71%[2][45] - **Top 5 Industries by 1-Year Average Excess Returns**: - Banking: 2.12% - Real Estate: 1.93% - Environmental Protection: 1.50% - Retail: 1.46% - Machinery: 1.23%[2][46]
中油工程(600339) - 中油工程关于2025年11月份担保发生情况的公告
2025-12-30 12:16
证券代码:600339 证券简称:中油工程 公告编号:2025-072 中国石油集团工程股份有限公司 关于 2025 年 11 月份担保发生情况的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏,并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示: | 被担保人名称 | | 本次担保金额 | 实际为其提供的担 | | 是否在 | 本次担 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 保余额(不含本次担 | | 前期预 | 保是否 | | | | | 保金额) | | 计额度 | 有反担 | | | | | | | 内 | 保 | | 中国石油天然气第七建设有限公司 | 91.66 | 万元 | 20,890.59 | 万元 | 是 | 否 | | 中国石油天然气第一建设有限公司 | 425.56 | 万元 | 35,691.91 | 万元 | 是 | 否 | | 中油(新疆)石油工程有限公司 | 822.80 | 万元 | 48,917.12 | 万元 | 是 | 否 | | 青岛中油岩土工程有限公 ...
中油工程(600339) - 中油工程2025年第二次临时股东会决议公告
2025-12-30 12:15
证券代码:600339 证券简称:中油工程 公告编号:2025-071 中国石油集团工程股份有限公司 2025年第二次临时股东会决议公告 | 1.出席会议的股东和代理人人数 | 346 | | --- | --- | | 2.出席会议的股东所持有表决权的股份总数(股) | 4,319,260,607 | | 3.出席会议的股东所持有表决权股份数占公司有表决权股 | 77.3625 | | 份总数的比例(%) | | (四) 表决方式是否符合《公司法》及《公司章程》的规定,股东会主持情况等。 本次会议由公司董事会召集,会议由董事长白雪峰先生主持,会议采用现场 投票和网络投票相结合的方式表决。本次会议的召集、召开、表决符合《公司法》 和《公司章程》有关规定。 (一) 股东会召开的时间:2025 年 12 月 30 日 (二) 股东会召开的地点:北京市朝阳区安立路 101 号名人大厦 0903 会议室 (五) 公司董事和董事会秘书的出席情况 1. 公司在任董事9人,出席9人,董事长白雪峰先生,董事王新革女士、薛枫先 生、宋少光先生、张红斌先生、宋官武先生,独立董事张克华先生、张占魁 先生、王雪华先生出席了会议。 2 ...
中油工程(600339) - 中油工程2025年第二次临时股东会法律意见书
2025-12-30 12:15
北京市金杜律师事务所 关于中国石油集团工程股份有限公司 2025 年第二次临时股东会的法律意见书 致:中国石油集团工程股份有限公司 北京市金杜律师事务所(以下简称本所)接受中国石油集团工程股份有限公 司(以下简称公司)的委托,根据《中华人民共和国证券法》(以下简称《证券 法》)、《中华人民共和国公司法》(以下简称《公司法》)、中国证券监督管 理委员会《上市公司股东会规则》(以下简称《股东会规则》)等中华人民共和 国境内(以下简称中国境内,为本法律意见书之目的,不包括中国香港特别行政 区、中国澳门特别行政区和中国台湾省)现行有效的法律、行政法规、部门规章、 规范性文件和现行有效的《中国石油集团工程股份有限公司章程》(以下简称《公 司章程》)有关规定,指派律师出席了公司于 2025 年 12 月 30 日召开的 2025 年第二次临时股东会(以下简称本次股东会),并就本次股东会相关事项出具本 法律意见书。 为出具本法律意见书,本所律师审查了公司提供的以下文件,包括但不限于: 1. 经公司 2024 年年度股东大会审议通过的《公司章程》; 2. 公司于 2025 年 12 月 13 日刊登于上海证券交易所网站的《中 ...
油服工程板块12月30日涨0.59%,准油股份领涨,主力资金净流出4322.94万元
Zheng Xing Xing Ye Ri Bao· 2025-12-30 09:08
从资金流向上来看,当日油服工程板块主力资金净流出4322.94万元,游资资金净流出2041.75万元,散户 资金净流入6364.69万元。油服工程板块个股资金流向见下表: | 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入(元) | 主力净占比 游资净流入 (元) | | 游资净占比 散户净流入 (元) | | 散户净占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002207 准油股份 | | 1343.39万 | 7.37% | -397.21万 | -2.18% | -946.17万 | -5.19% | | 600968 海油发展 | | 1139.51万 | 5.88% | -1909.52万 | -9.85% | 770.01万 | 3.97% | | 300164 通源石油 | | 1098.39万 | 2.68% | -1564.10万 | -3.82% | - 465.70万 | 1.14% | | 603619 中曼石油 | | 953.24万 | 3.63% | 722.92万 | 2.75% | -1676.16万 | -6.38% | ...
油服工程板块12月29日跌0.08%,惠博普领跌,主力资金净流入414.7万元
Zheng Xing Xing Ye Ri Bao· 2025-12-29 09:02
从资金流向上来看,当日油服工程板块主力资金净流入414.7万元,游资资金净流出287.58万元,散户资 金净流出127.12万元。油服工程板块个股资金流向见下表: | 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入(元) | | 主力净占比 游资净流入 (元) | | 游资净占比 散户净流入 (元) | | 散户净占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 603619 中曼石油 | | | 2711.29万 | 11.64% | 779.47万 | 3.35% | -3490.77万 | -14.98% | | 300164 通源石油 | | | 2585.86万 | 6.24% | 1844.21万 | 4.45% | -4430.07万 | -10.69% | | 600871 石化油服 | | | 1106.74万 | 3.37% | -395.89万 | -1.21% | -710.84万 | -2.17% | | 600968 海油发展 | | | 613.27万 | 5.75% | -638.80万 | -5.99% | 25.5 ...
【中油工程(600339.SH)】签署4.24亿美元哈萨克斯坦管道项目EPC合同,积极拓展海外市场——公告点评(赵乃迪/王礼沫)
光大证券研究· 2025-12-28 23:04
Core Viewpoint - The company has signed an EPC contract worth $424 million for the ethane and propane pipeline project in Kazakhstan, which is expected to enhance its market presence in Central Asia [4][5]. Group 1: Project Details - The contract involves the construction of a 209.4 km ethane pipeline with a diameter of 406.4 mm, a 208.1 km ethane pipeline with a diameter of 323.8 mm, and a 5.5 km propane connection pipeline with a diameter of 219.1 mm [5]. - The project is a recognition of the company's capabilities in total contracting for construction by KMG PetroChem, a subsidiary of Kazakhstan's national oil and gas company [5]. Group 2: Market Expansion - The company has achieved a cumulative new contract amount of 99.216 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.25% [7]. - Domestic contracts accounted for 73.95 billion yuan (74.54% of total new contracts), while overseas contracts reached 25.264 billion yuan (25.46% of total new contracts), with a year-on-year growth of 9.4% in overseas contracts [7]. - The company has consistently ranked among the top 250 international contractors and the top ten global oil and gas engineering companies for eight consecutive years, indicating strong construction capabilities and a rich project portfolio [7]. Group 3: Opportunities in Domestic and International Markets - The global upstream capital expenditure remains high, with China’s oil sector expected to achieve 210 billion yuan in upstream capital expenditure by 2025, which is likely to support the company's oil and gas field engineering business [8]. - The domestic refining industry is accelerating its transformation, with capital expenditures for high-end new materials projects continuing to grow, while the Middle East has seen active capital expenditures exceeding $100 billion [8]. - The company is expected to benefit significantly from the "Belt and Road" initiative, which integrates exploration, pipeline operation, refining, engineering services, and financial trade into a complete industrial chain [8].
中油工程(600339):公告点评:签署4.24亿美元哈萨克斯坦管道项目EPC合同,积极拓展海外市场
EBSCN· 2025-12-28 12:08
2025 年 12 月 28 日 公司研究 签署 4.24 亿美元哈萨克斯坦管道项目 EPC 合同,积极拓展海外市场 ——中油工程(600339.SH)公告点评 要点 事件:公司发布《关于子公司中标项目签署合同的公告》,公司子公司管道局工 程公司与中信建设有限责任公司组成的联合体,与哈萨克斯坦国家石油天然气化 工公司(KMG PetroChem)就哈萨克斯坦阿特劳州单走廊乙烷丙烷干线管道 EPC 项目签署 EPC 承包合同,合同金额 4.24 亿美元。 点评: 项目合同额 4.24 亿美元,有利于中亚地区市场拓展。哈萨克斯坦乙烷丙烷管道 项目为 EPC 总承包模式,主要工作范围包括建设管径 406.4mm、长度 209.4 公 里和管径 323.8mm、长度 208.1 公里的乙烷干线管道以及管径 219.1mm、长 度 5.5 公里的丙烷连接管线,项目合同额 4.24 亿美元。业主方 KMG PetroChem 是哈萨克斯坦国家石油天然气公司(KazMunayGas)全资子公司。合同签署体 现了哈国油对公司项目总承包建设能力的认可,有利于公司在中亚地区油气储运 工程业务市场的进一步巩固和拓展。 市场开拓有序 ...
中油工程(600339) - 中油工程关于子公司中标项目签署合同的公告
2025-12-25 10:15
证券代码:600339 证券简称:中油工程 公告编号:临 2025-070 中国石油集团工程股份有限公司 关于子公司中标项目签署合同的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者 重大遗漏,并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 重要提示: 1. 合同类型及金额:公司全资子公司中国石油管道局工程有限公司(以下简称 "管道局工程公司")及其全资子公司 CPPE(Kazakhstan)Ltd.与中信建设有限责任 公司组成的联合体(以下简称"联合体"),与哈萨克斯坦国家石油天然气化工公司(以 下简称"KMG PetroChem")就哈萨克斯坦阿特劳州单走廊乙烷丙烷干线管道 EPC 项目 (以下简称"哈萨克斯坦乙烷丙烷管道项目")签署 EPC 承包合同,合同金额 4.24 亿 美元。 2. 合同履行期限:项目工期(预验收时间)为开工通知发出后 36 个月,质保期 自项目验收证书签发之日起算,期限为 36 个月。 3. 对上市公司当期业绩的影响:该合同履行对公司本年度的资产总额、净资产和 净利润等不构成重大影响。由于合同履行期较长,该合同实施后将对公司未来 3-4 年 的 ...
中油工程:联合体签署4.24亿美元哈萨克斯坦乙烷丙烷管道项目EPC承包合同
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-12-25 10:12
Core Viewpoint - The company has signed an EPC contract worth $424 million for the ethane-propane pipeline project in Atyrau, Kazakhstan, in collaboration with CITIC Construction [1] Group 1 - The contract is between the company's wholly-owned subsidiary, China Petroleum Pipeline Engineering Co., Ltd., and Kazakhstan's national oil and gas company [1] - The project involves the construction of a single corridor ethane-propane pipeline [1] - The joint venture includes the company's subsidiary and CITIC Construction [1]