东方证券发布研报称，今年以来我国农药制剂出口量同比显著增长，市场主要从周期维度认为是去库后 的补库需求拉动，但该行认为更加核心的驱动是终端市场结构的变化，而这其中蕴含着中国企业出海重 塑全球农化价值链的结构性机会。从结构视角，该行持续看好润丰股份（301035）(301035.SZ，买入); 从周期视角，该行也看好主要代表性原药品类景气修复带来的盈利改善机会，关注扬农化工（600486） (600486.SH，增持)、兴发集团（600141）(600141.SH，买入)、新安股份（600596）(600596.SH，未评 级)、利尔化学（002258）(002258.SZ，未评级)等。 东方证券主要观点如下： 去库完结及需求改善的周期因素只是基础 全球农化产业链历经两年多的去库周期基本完结，具备底部复苏潜力。尤其作为全球最大的农化市场 国，巴西的需求复苏将带来较大边际拉动。23/24种植年巴西因为局部干旱和洪涝等极端天气影响导致 作物减产，叠加粮食价格下跌，农民收入预期下滑并打压农资采购和现金支付意愿，恶化的需求也传导 至上游渠道和工厂端。而今年以来，随着巴西天气条件改善及其长周期种植面积的持续提升，巴西国家 ...

看好我国农药制剂出海企业的增长机遇 见微知著，终端市场主体结构的变化也一定程度验证了该行前期润丰股份深度报告对全球农化价值链重 塑的观点。即本土经营者希望摆脱传统跨国公司的垄断去自主选择供应商，而打破垄断格局下的价值泡 沫也是终端种植者喜闻乐见的变局;让农化产品回归生产资料，让农民获得更多价值。这一格局重塑的 背景下，在终端市场能够快速满足需求迭代的中国企业有望把握增长的先机。 全球农化产业链历经两年多的去库周期基本完结，具备底部复苏潜力。尤其作为全球最大的农化市场 国，巴西的需求复苏将带来较大边际拉动。23/24种植年巴西因为局部干旱和洪涝等极端天气影响导致 作物减产，叠加粮食价格下跌，农民收入预期下滑并打压农资采购和现金支付意愿，恶化的需求也传导 至上游渠道和工厂端。而今年以来，随着巴西天气条件改善及其长周期种植面积的持续提升，巴西国家 供应公司(CONAB)今年多次上调了24/25年巴西大豆玉米的产量预期，预计产量同比增幅都在15%左 右。同时CBOT粮食期货结算价在今年销售季也基本企稳，农民收入预期得到改善，推动产业链各环节 的需求复苏。需求压制的解除推动了我国农药制剂出口量的同比增长及部分原药价格在 ...

Group 1 - The petrochemical industry is currently facing significant "involution" competition, leading to a decline in profit margins from 8.03% in 2021 to 4.85% in 2024, with the first half of 2025 still at low levels [1][16][17] - Central authorities have proposed comprehensive rectification measures to combat this issue, focusing on self-discipline, innovation, and the elimination of non-compliant capacity [1][16] - The industry is expected to transition towards high-quality sustainable development through capacity optimization and price ecology restructuring [1][16] Group 2 - The chemical industry's anti-involution policies have deepened from institutional construction to special rectification, with measures introduced to curb redundant construction and market segmentation [2][17] - Key sectors such as refining, olefins, and certain pesticide varieties are anticipated to benefit from supply-side reforms, leading to improved profitability as inefficient capacity is phased out [2][17] - The overall supply-demand structure is expected to gradually optimize, with the potential for profit recovery in the industry [2][17] Group 3 - As of July 2025, the China Chemical Product Price Index (CCPI) reported a decline of 5.6% from the beginning of the year, indicating a slight decrease in the prices of major chemical products [3][18] - The international crude oil prices showed a fluctuating upward trend, with Brent crude rising from $67.11 to $73.24 per barrel in July, influenced by geopolitical tensions and seasonal demand [4][19] - The forecast for Brent crude oil prices is set between $65 and $70 per barrel, with WTI prices expected between $60 and $65 per barrel, highlighting the importance of geopolitical dynamics and OPEC+ policies [4][19] Group 4 - The investment portfolio for the month includes companies such as Shengquan Group, Hubei Yihua, Satellite Chemical, China Petroleum, Lier Chemical, and Yara International, focusing on sectors with growth potential [9][22] - Shengquan Group is highlighted as a leader in synthetic resins, particularly in the rapidly growing electronic specialty resin market [9][22] - Hubei Yihua is positioned to benefit from its resource advantages in the fertilizer sector, while China Petroleum is recognized for its comprehensive energy capabilities [9][22] Group 5 - The electronic resin sector is experiencing rapid growth driven by demand from AI servers, with the global high-frequency and high-speed PCB market expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 26% from 2024 to 2026 [7][20][33] - The phosphoric fertilizer market is seeing resilience due to overseas agricultural recovery and regional stockpiling, with global prices on the rise [8][20] - The pesticide sector is anticipated to recover as the downward cycle reaches its bottom, supported by increased demand from South America and limited export growth from India and the U.S. [8][21]

Market Overview - The agricultural chemical sector experienced a decline of 2.43% on July 31, with Hubei Yihua leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3573.21, down 1.18%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 11009.77, down 1.73% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Yabao Chemical (300261) saw a significant increase of 12.09%, closing at 8.81 with a trading volume of 1.4172 million shares and a turnover of 1.216 billion yuan [1] - Other notable performers included Lier Chemical (002258) with a slight increase of 0.87% and Hongtaiyang (000525) with a 0.70% increase [1] - Conversely, Hubei Zhihua (000422) and Xingfa Group (600141) faced declines of 4.36% and 4.22% respectively, with trading volumes of 389,400 shares and 265,300 shares [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The agricultural chemical sector saw a net outflow of 577 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 526 million yuan [2] - The data indicates that retail investors were more active in the market compared to institutional investors on that day [2] Detailed Capital Flow for Selected Stocks - Yabao Chemical had a net inflow of 15 million yuan from institutional investors, while it experienced a net outflow of 87.29 million yuan from speculative funds [3] - Lier Chemical recorded a net inflow of 15.97 million yuan from institutional investors, with a minor net inflow of 1.82 million yuan from speculative funds [3] - Other stocks like Chuanheng Co. (002895) and Hongtaiyang (000525) also showed varied capital flows, indicating mixed investor sentiment [3]

天眼查商业履历信息显示，利尔化学股份有限公司，成立于2000年，位于绵阳市，是一家以从事化学原 料和化学制品制造业为主的企业。企业注册资本80043.7228万人民币，实缴资本33482.96万人民币。公 司法定代表人为尹英遂。 通过天眼查大数据分析，利尔化学股份有限公司共对外投资了16家企业，参与招投标项目174次，知识 产权方面有商标信息65条，专利信息259条，此外企业还拥有行政许可700个。 来源：金融界 金融界消息 截至2025年7月29日收盘，利尔化学（002258）报收于12.49元，下跌0.79%，换手率 2.31%，成交量18.44万手，成交金额2.28亿元。 资金流向方面，今日主力资金净流出1576.90万元，占比成交额6.93%。其中，超大单净流出141.57万 元、占成交额0.62%，大单净流出1435.32万元、占成交额6.31%，中单净流出流出104.21万元、占成交 额0.46%，小单净流入1681.10万元、占成交额7.39%。 利尔化学最新一期业绩显示，截至2025一季报，公司营业总收入20.86亿元、同比增长49.99%，归属净 利润1.53亿元，同比增长219.90%，扣 ...

Core Viewpoint - The pesticide industry is experiencing a prolonged downturn, but recent actions such as the "Zhengfeng Zhijuan" initiative may help reverse the trend and improve market conditions [1][2][4]. Group 1: Industry Actions and Regulations - The China Pesticide Industry Association has launched a three-year "Zhengfeng Zhijuan" action to address issues like hidden additives, illegal production, and chaotic competition in the pesticide industry [1][2]. - Key tasks include prohibiting the addition of unregistered active ingredients, cracking down on illegal production, and resisting low-price competition [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Since Q4 2022, the global pesticide market has entered a destocking phase, with domestic production capacity being released, leading to a mismatch in supply and demand [3][4]. - As of July 27, the China Agricultural Chemicals Price Index was at 75.35 points, showing a year-on-year decline of 0.44% but a month-on-month increase of 0.33% [3]. Group 3: Export Demand and Recovery Potential - In the first half of 2025, China's exports of herbicides, insecticides, and fungicides increased by 14%, 32%, and 24% year-on-year, respectively, with major markets including Brazil, the USA, and Thailand [3]. - Certain pesticide products, such as glyphosate and chlorpyrifos, are expected to see a rebound in demand, aiding in the recovery of industry profitability [4]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Yangnong Chemical, Limin Co., and Xingfa Group, which are leaders in the pesticide sector [5]. - Beneficiary stocks include Jiangshan Co., Lier Chemical, and Runfeng Co., among others, which are positioned to gain from the industry's recovery [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" for the pesticide industry [2]. Core Viewpoints - The "Rectifying Internal Competition" three-year action plan initiated by the China Pesticide Industry Association aims to address issues such as hidden additives, illegal production, and disorderly competition within the pesticide industry, potentially marking a turning point for industry prosperity [3][4]. - The demand for pesticides is expected to remain strong, with Chinese pesticide companies capturing a significant share of the global market for pesticide growth. The report highlights a notable increase in pesticide imports in Brazil and the United States, while exports from India and the U.S. have not kept pace, indicating China's growing role as a key supplier [4][25]. - The report anticipates that the pesticide industry's capital expenditure growth has been negative for four consecutive quarters, suggesting that prices have bottomed out. The "Rectifying Internal Competition" initiative is expected to enhance industry self-discipline and lead to a rebound in industry prosperity [4][9]. Summary by Sections Action Plan Overview - The "Rectifying Internal Competition" action plan outlines three main objectives: improving market order, curbing internal competition, and enhancing product quality by 2027 [5]. - Key tasks include prohibiting the addition of unregistered active ingredients, cracking down on illegal production, and resisting low-price competition among companies [5]. Industry Dynamics - The pesticide industry is currently facing intense competition and frequent safety incidents, necessitating the "Rectifying Internal Competition" initiative. The report notes that safety incidents have increased due to reduced safety investments amid competitive pressures [4][13]. - The report indicates that the global pesticide industry is transitioning from a de-inventory phase to a de-capacity phase, with China's pesticide exports expected to exceed 2.05 million tons in 2024, accounting for 89.5% of total production [6][9]. Market Trends - The report highlights that several pesticide prices have begun to rise due to improved demand and supply constraints. For instance, the price of glyphosate has increased by 12.93% since April 2025 [18][29]. - The overall pesticide market is showing signs of recovery from a downturn, with some companies experiencing significant improvements in profitability due to favorable industry conditions [29]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Yangnong Chemical, Lier Chemical, Xingfa Group, Limin Co., and Guoguang Co., which are well-positioned in the pesticide market and expected to benefit from the ongoing industry changes [32].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the launch of a three-year "Rectification and Governance" action in the pesticide industry to address issues such as hidden additives, illegal production, and disorderly competition, aiming for significant improvements by the end of 2027 [1] - The action will focus on curbing low-price disorderly competition, enhancing self-discipline among companies, and encouraging innovation to improve product quality and market competitiveness [1] - The glyphosate sector, being the largest single product in the pesticide industry, is expected to benefit from this initiative, leading to an improved competitive landscape and increased market share for leading companies [1] Group 2 - The industry is currently facing "involution" issues such as resource duplication and shrinking profit margins, which are hindering sustainable development [2] - A transition from "de-stocking" to "capacity reduction" is anticipated by 2025, indicating a potential recovery in the market [2] - Specific companies have already begun to raise prices for certain herbicides, with Li Er Chemical increasing the price of fluorochloride raw materials by 15% starting July 22 [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the chemical industry, with specific recommendations for companies such as Wanhua Chemical, Yancheng Chemical, and Runfeng Shares [13]. Core Insights - The chemical industry is experiencing a recovery, particularly in the pesticide sector, driven by regulatory actions against illegal production and price increases for key products [1][2]. - The report highlights the impact of macroeconomic factors on oil and gas prices, with a stable global GDP growth rate of 2.8% and expectations of increased oil supply from non-OPEC sources [2][4]. - The report suggests that the elimination of outdated production capacity may improve the industry structure, particularly in key sectors like steel and petrochemicals [1]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The report discusses the current macroeconomic outlook for the chemical industry, noting a stable increase in oil demand despite some slowdown due to tariffs [2]. - It mentions that coal prices are expected to decline in the medium to long term, alleviating pressure on downstream industries [2]. Price Trends - Recent price movements include a 15% increase in the price of certain herbicides and a general upward trend in pesticide prices due to regulatory actions [1]. - The report notes that TDI prices are expected to rise due to production halts in Europe, with global TDI inventory at low levels [1]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and growth potential, such as Wanhua Chemical, Yancheng Chemical, and Runfeng Shares, among others [1][13]. - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring the performance of companies in the agricultural chemicals sector, particularly those involved in pesticide production [1][13]. Market Conditions - The report indicates that the chemical industry is currently in a recovery phase, with signs of improvement in demand and pricing for key products [1]. - It highlights the importance of regulatory compliance and the impact of government policies on market dynamics [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the pesticide industry, suggesting a "Buy" rating for key companies such as Yangnong Chemical, Lier Chemical, and Runfeng Shares [3][20]. Core Insights - The pesticide industry is experiencing a recovery due to the "Zhengfeng Zhijuan" initiative aimed at regulating the market, which has led to price increases for key products like fluorocarbon herbicides [3][4]. - The report highlights the impact of maintenance shutdowns at major production facilities, such as Wanhua's Hungarian plant, which may lead to supply shortages and price increases in the TDI market [3][4]. - The report emphasizes the potential for improved industry dynamics through the elimination of outdated production capacity, as indicated by government initiatives targeting key sectors [3][4]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - Current macroeconomic conditions indicate a stable global GDP growth of 2.8%, with oil demand expected to rise despite some slowdown due to tariffs [4]. - The report notes that coal prices are expected to decline in the medium to long term, alleviating pressure on downstream industries [4]. Chemical Prices - Recent price movements include a 15% increase in the price of Lier Chemical's fluorocarbon herbicide and a similar rise for Zhongqi Shares [3][11]. - The report mentions that the price of TDI is expected to rise due to low global inventory levels and potential supply disruptions from maintenance activities [3][4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on traditional cyclical stocks and specific sectors such as coal chemical, real estate chain, and agricultural chemicals, highlighting companies like Wanhua Chemical and Hualu Hengsheng [3][20]. - Growth stocks with recovery potential are identified, including semiconductor materials and OLED panel materials, with specific companies recommended for investment [3][20].