Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pesticide industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][5] Core Views - The cancellation of export tax rebates for certain pesticides, including glyphosate, is expected to accelerate the elimination of outdated production capacity in the industry. This will initially squeeze profit margins for glyphosate producers but may lead to price increases due to heightened export demand and domestic spring planting preparations. In the medium to long term, if price increases do not match the loss of export tax rebates, companies will face higher costs, prompting further capacity reductions and encouraging a shift towards higher-value products [3][4] - The price of glyphosate has significantly decreased from a historical high of 370,000 yuan/ton to 43,900 yuan/ton, a drop of 88.14%, enhancing its cost-effectiveness and driving rapid market demand growth. China's glyphosate production is projected to increase from 18,300 tons in 2020 to 120,400 tons by 2025, representing a compound annual growth rate of 45.78% [8][9] - The export value of pesticide formulations is expected to continue rising, with the export amount for pesticide formulations in 2024 reaching 61.36 billion yuan, surpassing the export amount of raw materials for the first time, accounting for 54.12% of total pesticide exports [12] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The cancellation of export tax rebates is a significant change for pesticide companies, which have relied on these rebates as a crucial source of funding for normal operations. The current competitive landscape is challenging, with many companies facing profitability pressures [4] Market Dynamics - Glyphosate's price drop has led to a notable increase in demand, with production capacity expected to grow significantly. The industry has maintained high operating rates, with glyphosate production facilities operating at over 80% capacity for eight consecutive months, indicating strong downstream demand [9] Export Trends - The cancellation of export tax rebates for certain raw pesticides does not affect pesticide formulations, which continue to enjoy a 9% export tax rebate. This is expected to further boost the export volume and share of pesticide formulations in the market [12] Investment Recommendations - Key companies recommended for investment include Lier Chemical, a leader in chlorinated pyridine herbicides and glyphosate, and Limin Co., which is seeing price increases in multiple main pesticide products [16]

Core Viewpoint - Lier Chemical's stock has shown a positive trend in recent months, with significant revenue and profit growth reported for the year 2025, indicating strong operational performance and investor interest [2][3]. Group 1: Stock Performance - On January 13, Lier Chemical's stock price decreased by 2.08%, trading at 14.10 yuan per share, with a total market capitalization of 11.286 billion yuan [1]. - Year-to-date, the stock price has increased by 8.05%, with a 3.91% rise over the last five trading days, 9.73% over the last 20 days, and 16.14% over the last 60 days [1]. - The net outflow of main funds was 17.5697 million yuan, with large orders showing a buy of 35.1264 million yuan and a sell of 47.8978 million yuan [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Lier Chemical achieved a revenue of 6.709 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 29.31%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 381 million yuan, up 189.07% year-on-year [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 1.496 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 720 million yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of November 30, the number of shareholders for Lier Chemical was 40,300, a decrease of 4.20% from the previous period, while the average circulating shares per person increased by 4.39% to 19,842 shares [2]. - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited holds 13.308 million shares, an increase of 5.8814 million shares from the previous period [3].

Group 1 - The glyphosate concept index declined by 0.02%, ranking among the top declines in the concept sector, with companies like Hebang Biotechnology, Jiangshan Shares, and Xingfa Group experiencing significant drops [1] - Among the companies in the glyphosate sector, 9 stocks saw price increases, with notable gains from Nuo Shun (up 4.20%), Li Er Chemical (up 3.45%), and Jiang Tian Chemical (up 2.26%) [1][3] Group 2 - The glyphosate concept sector experienced a net outflow of 234 million yuan, with 13 stocks seeing net outflows, and 5 stocks exceeding 10 million yuan in outflows, led by Hebang Biotechnology with a net outflow of 134 million yuan [2] - Other companies with significant net outflows include Jiangshan Shares (57.89 million yuan), Hongtaiyang (29.72 million yuan), and Xin'an Shares (23.04 million yuan) [2] - Conversely, the companies with the highest net inflows included Li Er Chemical (40.21 million yuan), Nuo Shun (18.77 million yuan), and Zhongnong Lihua (3.39 million yuan) [2]

证券之星消息，1月12日农化制品板块较上一交易日下跌0.63%，和邦生物领跌。当日上证指数报收于 4165.29，上涨1.09%。深证成指报收于14366.91，上涨1.75%。农化制品板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002250 | 联化科技 | 17.69 | 7.73% | 75.37万 | | 13.35 Z | | 002258 | 利尔化学 | 14.40 | 3.45% | 34.14万 | | 4.89亿 | | 002513 | 蓝丰生化 | 7.24 | 2.55% | 24.51万 | | 1.76亿 | | 920866 | 绿亨科技 | 8.62 | 2.38% | 2.28万 | | 1937.34万 | | 000792 | 盐湖股份 | 31.96 | 2.17% | 128.89万 | | 41.44亿 | | 300261 | 雅本化学 | 7.14 | 2.15% | 19.42万 | | 1.38亿 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the chemical industry [1] Core Insights - The chemical industry is expected to experience an upward cycle due to the implementation of "anti-involution" policies in China and the accelerated exit of some European facilities [29] - The report highlights the potential for domestic substitution of semiconductor materials from Japan due to rising geopolitical tensions, which could benefit various companies in the sector [5] - The chromium salt industry is undergoing a value reassessment driven by increased demand from AI data centers and commercial aircraft engines, with a projected supply-demand gap of 340,900 tons by 2028 [8] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The chemical industry has shown strong relative performance with a 1-month increase of 10.7%, 3-month increase of 9.6%, and a 12-month increase of 45.1%, outperforming the CSI 300 index [3] Price Trends - Key products such as lithium carbonate and polysilicon have seen significant price increases, supported by policy guidance and industry self-discipline [12] - The price of chromium salts has remained stable, with metal chromium priced at 82,000 CNY/ton as of January 9, 2026 [15] Investment Opportunities - Focus on companies with low-cost expansion capabilities, such as Wanhu Chemical and Hualu Hengsheng, as well as those in sectors with improving market conditions like chromium salts and phosphates [6][9] - High dividend yield opportunities are identified in state-owned enterprises like China Petroleum and China National Chemical [10] Key Company Tracking - Companies such as Dongfang Shenghong and Huabei Yihua are highlighted for their earnings potential, with projected EPS growth for 2026 [30] - The report tracks specific price movements for various chemicals, including a notable increase in the price of ammonium phosphate and a stable price for urea [17][19]

（文章来源：证券日报） 证券日报网讯 1月9日，利尔化学在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司湖南津市基地是公司生物制 造产业化平台，主要专注于合成生物学研发和生物制造产业，其中2万吨/年酶法精草铵膦项目已经投 产，生产情况正常。 ...

（文章来源：证券日报） 证券日报网讯 1月9日，利尔化学在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司2025年12月末的股东情况敬 请关注公司拟于2026年3月28日披露的年报相关内容。 ...

（文章来源：证券日报） 证券日报网讯 1月9日，利尔化学在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司将会根据控股股东久远集团 的通知公告转让进展及相关事宜，若有意愿，请关注公司公告。 ...

Market Overview - The agricultural chemical sector experienced a decline of 0.25% on January 9, with Nongxin Technology leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4120.43, up 0.92%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14120.15, up 1.15% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the agricultural chemical sector included: - ST Huifeng (002496) with a closing price of 2.07, up 2.99% [1] - Zhejiang Agricultural Shares (002758) at 10.12, up 1.81% [1] - Lianhua Technology (002250) at 16.42, up 1.61% [1] - Nongxin Technology (001231) was the biggest loser, closing at 25.20, down 5.90% [2] - Other significant decliners included: - Xin'an Shares (600596) at 12.19, down 3.48% [2] - Chuanjinno (300505) at 25.35, down 2.87% [2] Capital Flow - The agricultural chemical sector saw a net outflow of 896 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 1.019 billion yuan [2] - The capital flow for specific stocks showed: - Lier Chemical (002258) had a net inflow of 19.57 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Ba Tian Shares (002170) experienced a net outflow of 10.31% from retail investors [3] - Lu Hua Technology (600691) had a net inflow of 7.26 million yuan from institutional investors [3]

Group 1 - The glyphosate concept sector declined by 0.44%, ranking among the top declines in the concept sector, with major declines seen in companies like Xin'an Chemical, Lier Chemical, and Jiangshan Chemical [1] - Among the companies in the glyphosate sector, eight stocks saw price increases, with Jiangtian Chemical, Taihe Co., and Nuofengxin leading the gains at 0.58%, 0.52%, and 0.46% respectively [1] - The main capital outflow from the glyphosate sector today was 146 million yuan, with 14 stocks experiencing net outflows, and six stocks seeing outflows exceeding 10 million yuan [1] Group 2 - Xin'an Chemical had the highest net capital outflow of 51.38 million yuan, followed by Nuofengxin, Xingfa Group, and Runfeng Co. with outflows of 19.73 million yuan, 14.59 million yuan, and 12.70 million yuan respectively [1] - The stocks with the highest net capital inflow included Yangnong Chemical and Ando Mai A, with inflows of 0.67 million yuan and 0.06 million yuan respectively [2] - The trading volume for Xin'an Chemical was 3.74%, while Lier Chemical had a turnover rate of 4.12% [1][2]