克雷西 发自 凹非寺 量子位 | 公众号 QbitAI 在人与AI高度协同的时代，只有大量复杂UI界面的应用将会被淘汰。 大神Karpathy给出了对于应用程序未来的预言，并特别点名 Adobe、CAD将首当其冲 。 △ ngmi是not gonna make it的缩写 这样说的原因，Karpathy解释， 只有复杂的UI界面而不提供文本交互，就无法和大模型形成有效的人机协同 。 换言之，这类软件没办法满足准专业用户的"氛围式编程"需求。 按照应用当中UI和文本含量的不同，Karpathy还给一些常见的应用划分出了 四个"风险等级" 。 其中提到的部分软件，长这样： 还有人表示，现在Agent的水平已经与人类相当，所以软件开发者要同时考虑人类和AI，甚至是只考虑AI。 看到有人如此强调后端接口的地位，有网友直接给出灵魂拷问—— Karpathy还补充， 虽然AI在UI界面操作上也会取得进步，但开发者如果守株待兔，照样不会有好的发展 。 只有UI界面=没有未来？ Karpathy的这番犀利言论，一经发出就引发了广泛的讨论。 支持者Karpathy的人表示， 仅仅依赖复杂的可视化UI，而没有可脚本化的后端的产品 ...

| Adobe | 1719 | 2.82% | 403.4 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 小米 וש | 1705 | 3.41% | 6.67 | | 德州仪器 | 1673 | - 0.8% | 184.21 | | S 索尼 | 1617 | 1.9% | 26.88 | | 高通 | 1000 | 1 0.98% | 146.63 | | Schneider Electric | 1416 | -0.75% | 251.06 | | Shopify | 1379 | -0.63% | 106.54 | | Spotify | 1377 | 1.03% | 672 | | PDD Holdi (Pindiod) | 1369 | -0.07% | 96.44 | | AppLovin | 1360 | 2.27% | 401.91 | | Arm Holdings 1335 | | 1 1.22% | 126.06 | | 22 自动数据处理 | 1322 | 0.08% | 325.8 | | MercadoLibre | 1314 | 1 1.18% | 2593.4 ...

British Columbia , Canada - 29 May 2025; Govind Balakrishnan, SVP, Express & Digital Media, Adobe; ... More left, and Ryan Heath, Podcast Host, The AI Sidekick, on Creative Summit stage during day two of Web Summit Vancouver 2025 at Vancouver Convention Centre in Vancouver, Canada. (Photo By Ramsey Cardy/Web Summit via Sportsfile via Getty Images)Sportsfile via Getty ImagesWhat if we told you that Adobe (NASDAQ: ADBE) stock is setting itself up for a huge gain opportunity? Adobe is set to report earnings on ...

Core Viewpoint - Despite market turmoil, stock prices remain flat in 2025, but long-term prospects for many companies appear bright [1] Group 1: Nvidia - Nvidia is a leading AI stock, providing GPUs essential for AI model training and operation [4] - Data center capital expenditures are projected to increase from $400 billion in 2024 to $1 trillion by 2028, indicating significant growth potential for Nvidia [5] - The company reported a 69% revenue increase in Q1 2026, highlighting its strong performance despite challenges in its China business [5] Group 2: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing is a key player in the AI sector, serving as a chip foundry for high-tech companies [6] - Management anticipates a 45% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for AI-related revenue over the next five years, with overall revenue expected to grow at nearly 20% CAGR [7] - The stock is currently valued at around 21 times forward earnings, making it an attractive investment compared to the S&P 500's 22.1 times [8] Group 3: Alphabet - Alphabet's stock is trading at 18 times forward earnings, lower than the S&P 500 and its tech peers, due to concerns over AI disruption and potential government breakup [9][11] - The company is actively engaging in the AI space with AI-powered search and generative AI features, which may mitigate fears surrounding its stock [12] Group 4: Adobe - Adobe faces similar AI-related concerns as Alphabet, but its generative AI software, Firefly, integrates well with its existing products [13] - The company continues to see steady revenue growth, with the stock trading around 20 times forward earnings, presenting a good value opportunity [16] Group 5: Amazon - Amazon's profitability is primarily driven by Amazon Web Services (AWS), which accounted for 63% of total operating profits despite only representing 19% of revenue in Q1 [18][19] - Concerns about tariffs affecting its e-commerce business are overshadowed by the growth potential of AWS, which benefits from trends in AI and cloud migration [17][19]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the reliability of brokerage recommendations, particularly focusing on Adobe Systems (ADBE), and highlights the potential misalignment of interests between brokerage analysts and retail investors [1][10]. Brokerage Recommendations - Adobe has an average brokerage recommendation (ABR) of 1.74, indicating a consensus between Strong Buy and Buy, based on 34 brokerage firms [2]. - Out of the 34 recommendations, 21 are Strong Buy (61.8%) and 2 are Buy (5.9%) [2]. Limitations of Brokerage Recommendations - Relying solely on ABR for investment decisions may not be wise, as studies show limited success in guiding investors towards stocks with the best price increase potential [5]. - Brokerage analysts tend to exhibit a strong positive bias in their ratings due to vested interests, with five "Strong Buy" recommendations for every "Strong Sell" [6][10]. Zacks Rank Comparison - Zacks Rank, a proprietary stock rating tool, categorizes stocks from 1 (Strong Buy) to 5 (Strong Sell) and is based on earnings estimate revisions, which correlate strongly with near-term stock price movements [8][11]. - The Zacks Rank is distinct from ABR; while ABR is based on brokerage recommendations, Zacks Rank is a quantitative model reflecting earnings estimates [9]. Current Earnings Estimates for Adobe - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Adobe's current year earnings remains unchanged at $20.36, indicating steady analyst views on the company's earnings prospects [13]. - Due to the unchanged consensus estimate and other factors, Adobe holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), suggesting caution despite the Buy-equivalent ABR [14].

Salesforce, Inc. (CRM) and Adobe Inc. (ADBE) are two well-established leaders in the cloud software space. Both companies help businesses improve customer engagement, boost productivity and support digital transformation. Adobe is better known for its tools for creatives and marketers, while Salesforce leads in customer relationship management. Recently, both firms have been betting big on artificial intelligence (AI) to drive future growth. This raises an important question for investors: Which of the two ...

Core Viewpoint - Adobe has demonstrated strong financial performance driven by innovation, yet its stock performance has been stagnant over the past five years, remaining at levels similar to May 2020, prompting a reassessment of its investment potential [1] Valuation - Adobe's valuation appears neutral, with price-to-sales and price-to-earnings ratios at 7.3 times and 23.8 times respectively, indicating a reasonable stance for long-term investors despite being slightly above market averages [2] - A potential upside of over 30% is suggested based on the analysis of Adobe's valuation metrics [2] Growth and Profitability - Adobe's revenue has grown at an average annual rate of 10.9% over the last three years, with a 10.5% increase in the past twelve months, rising from $20 billion to $22 billion [3] - The most recent quarter showed a 10.3% year-over-year revenue increase, from $5.2 billion to $5.7 billion, highlighting Adobe's leadership in creative tools and expansion into new areas like AI [3] - Operating income reached $8.0 billion with a 36.3% operating margin, while net income was $6.8 billion, resulting in a 30.6% net margin, showcasing Adobe's efficiency in converting revenues into earnings [4] Financial Health - Adobe's balance sheet reflects strong operational discipline, with $6.6 billion in debt against a market capitalization of $182 billion, leading to a debt-to-equity ratio of less than 4.0% [5] - The company holds $7.4 billion in cash and equivalents, constituting 24.8% of its total assets, providing flexibility for R&D investments and strategic acquisitions [5] - Adobe's solid capital structure supports consistent shareholder value returns through buybacks and reinvestment [5] Downturn Resilience - Adobe's stock experienced a significant decline of 60.0% during the 2022 inflation shock, compared to a 25.4% drop in the S&P 500, indicating vulnerability during economic downturns [6][8] - Historical performance shows a 25.6% drop during the COVID-19 pandemic, with a quick recovery, while a 66.7% decline during the 2008 financial crisis took about five years to recover [8] Long-Term Investment Potential - Despite volatility during downturns, Adobe's growth rate, profitability, and robust financials present a strong case for long-term investment [9] - The current valuation reflects a company that consistently delivers value and innovation, making it an attractive entry point for investors willing to endure short-term fluctuations [9]

Core Viewpoint - Adobe's stock has increased by 19% in a month due to its focus on Generative AI and innovative portfolio, but faces challenges from competition and monetization issues [1][3] Company Performance - Adobe's AI business is small compared to competitors like Microsoft and Alphabet, with Microsoft benefiting from Azure AI services and Alphabet from its AI infrastructure [2] - Adobe shares have underperformed compared to Microsoft and DocuSign, which returned 24.9% and 20.9% respectively, while Adobe outperformed Alphabet's 8.2% return [3] Valuation Metrics - Adobe's stock is considered overvalued with a forward price/sales ratio of 7.28X, higher than the sector average of 6.14X and competitors like Salesforce and DocuSign [6] AI Portfolio Development - Adobe has expanded its AI offerings with products like Adobe GenStudio and Firefly Services, aimed at enhancing marketing collaboration [9] - The company plans to monetize Firefly through new Creative Cloud offerings and is integrating AI across its portfolio, which is expected to drive top-line growth [10] Financial Guidance - Adobe's AI business is projected to grow from over $125 million in Q1 FY25, expected to double by the end of FY25 [11] - For FY25, Adobe anticipates Digital Media segment revenues between $17.25 billion and $17.40 billion, with total revenue guidance between $23.30 billion and $23.55 billion [12][13] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for FY25 earnings is $20.36 per share, reflecting a 10.53% growth over FY24, although it has seen a decline in estimates recently [14] - The estimate for Q2 FY25 earnings is $4.96 per share, suggesting a 10.71% growth from the previous year [16]

Core Viewpoint - Both Alphabet and Adobe are integrating artificial intelligence (AI) into their core offerings, with Alphabet focusing on search and cloud services, while Adobe enhances its creative products with AI capabilities [1][2]. AI Market Outlook - Global spending on AI-supporting technologies is projected to exceed $749 billion by 2028, with enterprises expected to contribute 67% of the $227 billion AI spending in 2025 [2]. Alphabet's AI Initiatives - Alphabet's AI integration in Search has seen significant growth, with Circle to Search available on 250 million devices and a 40% increase in usage during Q1 2025. Monthly visual searches have risen by 5 billion since October 2024, and AI Overview is utilized by over 1.5 billion people monthly [5][6]. - Google Cloud is becoming a preferred choice for enterprises deploying AI agents, supported by tools like the Agent Development Kit and Agent Designer [6]. Adobe's AI Developments - Adobe has expanded its AI portfolio with Adobe GenStudio and Firefly Services, aiding brands in marketing campaigns. The company has launched AI-powered features in Premiere Pro and After Effects, enhancing video and audio capabilities [9][10][11]. - Adobe's AI business was valued at over $125 million at the end of Q1 2025, representing a low single-digit percentage of total revenues of $4.23 billion, with expectations to double by the end of fiscal 2025 [12]. Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Alphabet's 2025 earnings is $9.43 per share, reflecting an 8% increase over the past 30 days and a 17.29% rise from 2024 [13]. - Adobe's fiscal 2025 earnings estimate has slightly decreased to $20.36 per share, indicating a 10.53% growth over fiscal 2024 [14]. Performance Comparison - Both companies have consistently beaten earnings estimates, with Alphabet showing a higher average surprise of 14.64% compared to Adobe's 2.53% [15]. - In terms of valuation, Alphabet is trading at a forward Price/Sales ratio of 5.98X, lower than Adobe's 7.27X, indicating that Alphabet is relatively cheaper [16]. Conclusion - Despite regulatory challenges, Alphabet is experiencing strong growth in cloud and search services, bolstered by a dominant market position and over 270 million paid subscriptions [18]. - Adobe faces stiff competition in the AI space and struggles with monetization of its AI solutions, leading to a weaker outlook compared to Alphabet [18][19].

企业并购真实情况到底如何？创业公司应如何制定有效的被并购策略？并购决策背后又隐藏着哪些不为人知的 逻辑？ 近期，HubSpot 联合创始人 Brian Halligan 根据他与 Salesforce、Adobe 等公司多年的互动经历，深刻解读了当 今企业并购的真实情况，揭示了并购背后的策略与真相： 企业并购邀约的真实情况远比传闻稀少 一个让我感到惊讶的事实是，在HubSpot长达18年的发展历程中，我们几乎没有收到过任何正式的收购要约。 Salesforce从未提出过严肃的收购意向，尽管曾有传言说谷歌要收购HubSpot，但这些都不是真的。我们只收到 过几次不痛不痒的接触。这让我很意外，我本以为会有很多收购机会。 大公司的并购极其复杂 "对于一家科技公司而言，收购一家公司远比你想象的要复杂得多" "软性成本远比现金或股票高得多" 整合过程可能会消耗掉"像那些高薪人才大约10000小时的时间" 主动上门的兴趣至关重要 "如果你想卖掉你的公司，那没人会想买" "必须是对方主动找上门来" 聘请银行家来兜售你的公司"从来行不通" 战略合作伙伴关系可能突然转变为竞争关系 HubSpot 曾将 Salesforce 视 ...