智通财经APP获悉，摩根士丹利发布研报指出，Adobe(ADBE.US)当前估值具有吸引力，定价策略和生成式 AI(GenAI)的长期潜力可能推动每股收益(EPS)增长，维持"增持"评级，目标价510美元。大摩指出，关于 Gen Al 的定位及竞争方面的讨论以及相关头条新闻短期内不太可能缓和，改变每股收益增长的方向是平息看空情 绪的关键。 投资者对 Adobe 长期竞争定位以及近期 Gen Al 的贡献的担忧继续对股价构成压力，过去三个月，其表现较 大型软件同行低约 15 个百分点。尽管该公司估值在第二季度初时并未显示出较高的水平(1.5倍PEG，大型同 行为2.2倍)，但鉴于对未来推动股价上涨的催化剂的有限预期，投资者仍不愿贸然买入。由于竞争方面的新 闻不太可能缓和，改变每股收益增长的方向很可能是平息看空观点的关键。 对于能改变每股收益增长趋势的催化剂，大摩指出有三个主要因素能够改变每股收益增长的方向，其中对营 收增长的总体趋势持乐观态度(第 1 点)，这是基于该行对定价的深入分析得出的结论，同时正在进行的股票 回购(第 3 点)也有助于推动每股收益的增长，而利润率的提升(第 2 点)则是中期的催化剂，但需 ...

摩根士丹利发布研报指出，Adobe当前估值具有吸引力，定价策略和生成式AI(GenAI)的长期潜力可能 推动 每股收益(EPS)增长，维持"增持"评级，目标价510美元。大摩指出，关于Gen Al的定位及竞争方面 的讨论以及相关头条新闻短期内不太可能缓和，改变每股收益增长的方向是平息看空情绪的关键。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Adobe is facing challenges due to concerns about AI disruption affecting its creative software suite, leading to a significant decline in stock price and slower sales growth [2][3]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Adobe stock is down nearly 30% from its 52-week high of $587, making it a potential buy-the-dip candidate [1]. - The stock is down 5% in 2025 and has only increased by 12% over the last three years, underperforming compared to broader indexes and the Zacks Computer-Software Industry, which has gained nearly 100% [4]. Group 2: Financial Expectations - For Q2, Adobe's sales are expected to rise by 9% to $5.79 billion compared to $5.31 billion in the same quarter last year, while EPS is projected to increase by 11% to $4.96 from $4.48 [5]. - Adobe has consistently surpassed Zacks EPS Consensus for 25 consecutive quarters, with an average earnings surprise of 2.53% in the last four quarters [6]. Group 3: Valuation Metrics - Adobe trades at a forward P/E of 20.4X, which is below the S&P 500's 23.2X and offers a 41% discount to its Zacks industry average [8]. - The stock is trading at a significant discount compared to its decade-long median of 42.7X forward earnings and well below its peak of 65.4X during this period [9]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Adobe holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) ahead of its Q2 report, with long-term shareholders potentially rewarded if the company can meet or exceed quarterly expectations and provide favorable guidance to alleviate AI disruption concerns [10].

Key Takeaways Adobe projects Q2 revenue of $5.77B-$5.82B and EPS of $4.95-$5, both showing solid year-over-year growth. Strong GenAI tools, new Firefly models, and deep app integrations are expected to boost segment performance.Adobe (ADBE) is set to report its second-quarter fiscal 2025 results on June 12.For second-quarter fiscal 2025, Adobe projects total revenues between $5.77 billion and $5.82 billion. The company expects non-GAAP earnings between $4.95 and $5 per share.The Zacks Consensus Estimate fo ...

Core Insights - Adobe's stock is currently trading 40% below its all-time highs as it approaches its Q2 FY25 earnings release, raising concerns about slowing growth and valuation levels in the context of the tech sector [1][7][20] Financial Performance - Adobe's revenue growth has slowed to an average of 11% between FY22 and FY24, following a period of 15% to 25% growth for seven consecutive years after transitioning to a subscription model [4] - The company is projected to grow its revenue by 9% in FY25 and 10% in FY26, reaching $25.63 billion, with adjusted earnings expected to increase by 11% and 13% respectively [16] Competitive Landscape - Investors are concerned about the rapid rise of artificial intelligence offerings that allow users to create high-quality content with minimal skills, potentially threatening Adobe's creative software suite [2][5][11] - Adobe has responded by integrating AI features across its portfolio, including the launch of its generative AI platform, Firefly, which has generated over 22 billion assets since its debut [12][15] Strategic Moves - Adobe's decision to scrap its planned acquisition of Figma due to regulatory challenges has raised concerns about its ability to diversify and deploy cash effectively [5] - The company has emphasized the commercial viability of its AI features, positioning them as safer alternatives compared to other generative AI services that may face legal challenges [15] Market Position - Despite the recent selloff, Adobe's stock is trading at a 75% discount to its all-time highs and 33% below its median valuation at 23.5X forward 12-month earnings, indicating potential value for long-term investors [20] - Adobe's stock has appreciated nearly 1,500% over the past 15 years, significantly outperforming the tech sector, although it has seen a 2% increase in the last five years compared to the tech sector's 110% rise [18]

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Core Insights - Adobe is set to announce its earnings on June 12, 2025, with historical trends indicating a negative stock reaction post-announcement, as the stock has declined in 70% of cases over the last five years, with a median drop of 7.4% and a maximum loss of 16.8% [2][3] Earnings Expectations - Analysts project Adobe's earnings to be $4.97 per share with sales of $5.8 billion, reflecting an increase from the previous year's earnings of $4.48 per share and revenue of $5.31 billion [3] - The subscription business is performing well, but revenue growth in the generative AI sector has not met expectations, which will be closely monitored in the upcoming report [3] Financial Performance - Adobe has a market capitalization of $180 billion and generated $22 billion in revenue over the past twelve months, with operating profits of $8.0 billion and a net income of $6.8 billion [4] - The Trefis High Quality portfolio, which includes Adobe, has outperformed the S&P 500 with returns exceeding 91% since its inception, offering a lower volatility investment alternative [4][10] Historical Earnings Reaction - Over the last five years, Adobe has recorded 20 earnings data points, with only 6 resulting in positive one-day returns, indicating a 30% success rate for positive returns [7] - The median of positive returns is 3.9%, while the median of negative returns is -7.4% [7] Correlation Analysis - A strategy to assess the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post-earnings can be beneficial, particularly if the 1D and 5D returns show a strong correlation [8] - Historical data suggests that the performance of peers can influence Adobe's post-earnings stock reaction, with price adjustments potentially occurring before the earnings announcement [9]

Group 1 - The VanEck Semiconductors ETF (SMH) has experienced sideways price action over the past 12 months, indicating a lack of significant movement in chip stocks since their peak [1] - The article highlights the importance of analyzing stock market sectors, ETFs, and economic data to identify potential investment opportunities [1] Group 2 - The author emphasizes the use of empirical data and charts to create evidence-based narratives that effectively communicate financial insights [1]

Group 1 - The next earnings date for Adobe is projected to be June 12, with earnings estimates of $4.97 per share and revenue of $5.80 billion [1] - Adobe has demonstrated impressive long-term earnings per share growth and revenue growth [4] - Earnings reports can lead to significant volatility in Adobe's stock, which may attract options traders, especially with options expiring on June 13 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the strong performance of Palantir Technologies due to advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) and highlights two other AI stocks, Salesforce and Adobe, that are expected to outperform Palantir in the near future [1][2][3]. Palantir Technologies - Palantir has seen a remarkable stock increase of 1,630% since December 2022, with a current market cap exceeding $300 billion [2]. - The company's financial results are strong, with a year-over-year revenue growth of 39% in the first quarter and an operating margin of 44% [6]. - Despite excellent operating results, Palantir's stock is considered overvalued, trading at more than 75 times the management's revenue outlook for 2025 and 175 times EBITDA expectations for the next 12 months [7][8]. Salesforce - Salesforce is enhancing its enterprise software solutions with AI through its Agentforce platform, which has generated around $100 million in annual recurring revenue shortly after launch [9][10]. - The company expects total sales to exceed $41 billion this year, with an operating margin of 34% [10]. - Salesforce stock trades at just 6 times management's revenue guidance, with a forward P/E ratio of 23, and analysts have a median price target of $355, indicating a potential 35% upside [13]. Adobe - Adobe has integrated AI innovations into its creative and marketing software, leading to increased pricing and customer acquisition [14][15]. - The company reported $125 million in annual recurring revenue directly from AI services, expecting this to double by year-end, and $3.5 billion in AI-influenced annual recurring revenue across its portfolio [16]. - Adobe stock trades for about 7 times management's estimate for 2025 revenue, with a forward P/E below 20, and analysts have a median price target of $477.50, suggesting a 19% upside [18][19].