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Oracle stock dropped -29% in the previous month. You may feel inclined to increase your investment, or you might consider decreasing your exposure. However, there is a completely different viewpoint you could be overlooking. Is there a superior alternative? It appears that its counterpart, Adobe, offers more.SAN FRANCISCO, CA - OCTOBER 22: Oracle co-founder and Chairman Larry Ellison delivers a keynote address during the Oracle OpenWorld on October 22, 2018 in San Francisco, California. The Oracle co-founde ...

Market Overview - In Q3 2025, the US equity market saw a rally, with the S&P 500 Index increasing by 8.12% and the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index rising by 2.03% [1] - Aristotle Atlantic's Large Cap Growth strategy achieved a return of 9.76% gross of fees (9.61% net of fees), underperforming the Russell 1000 Growth Index, which returned 10.51% [1] Company Performance: Adobe Inc. (NASDAQ:ADBE) - Adobe Inc. reported a one-month return of -3.58% and a 52-week decline of 33.71%, with shares closing at $331.11 on November 14, 2025, and a market capitalization of $139.645 billion [2] - In Q3 2025, Adobe Inc. achieved record revenue of $5.99 billion, reflecting a 10% year-over-year growth [4] Strategic Decisions - The company sold its holdings in Adobe Inc. due to increasing competition from AI startups and hyperscalers, which is expected to pressure pricing and seat growth [3] - Concerns were raised regarding Adobe's ability to monetize its AI product offerings quickly enough to sustain its Digital Media Annualized Recurring Revenue (ARR) growth rates [3]

Generative AI has created its share of winners and losers. But what about the stocks in between? Adobe Inc. ( ADBE ) continues to churn out respectable top-line growth backed by best-in-class profit margins. ButJulian Lin is a financial analyst. He finds undervalued companies with secular growth that appreciate over time. His approach is to look for companies with strong balance sheets and management teams in sectors with long growth runways. Julian is the leader of the investing group Best Of Breed Growth ...

Group 1 - Generative AI has resulted in both winners and losers in the market, with Adobe Inc. (ADBE) showing respectable top-line growth and best-in-class profit margins [1] - Analyst Julian Lin focuses on identifying undervalued companies with secular growth potential, emphasizing strong balance sheets and management teams in sectors with long growth runways [1] - Lin leads the investing group Best Of Breed Growth Stocks, which shares stock positions with a high probability of delivering significant alpha compared to the S&P 500 [1] Group 2 - The investment strategy combines growth-oriented principles with strict valuation hurdles to enhance the conventional margin of safety [1] - Features of the investment group include exclusive access to high-conviction stock picks, comprehensive research reports, real-time trade alerts, macro market analysis, individual industry reports, a filtered watchlist, and 24/7 community chat access to the analyst [1]

Core Insights - Adobe (ADBE) is beginning to appear as a value candidate, trading nearly 40% below its 12-month high and at a price-to-sales ratio significantly below its three-year average, indicating a rare reset for a premium software company [2] - The company's revenue continues to grow robustly, with Q3 2025 revenue boosted by the adoption of AI-enhanced Creative Cloud Pro, leading to AI-driven annual recurring revenue exceeding $5 billion [3] - Despite strong fundamentals, Adobe's valuation remains suppressed due to increasing AI competition impacting market share, although management has raised its FY25 revenue forecast [3] Financial Metrics - Adobe's revenue growth is reasonable at 10.7% LTM and a three-year average of 10.5% [10] - The company maintains a strong average operating margin of approximately 35.4% over the past three years, with no significant margin collapse in the last 12 months [10] - The stock trades at a modest price-to-earnings multiple of 20.3, despite positive fundamentals [10] Market Positioning - Acquiring stocks with low valuations that retain strong margins allows investors to benefit from mean reversion and revaluation potential, with lower downside risk due to high-margin businesses being able to uphold earnings [4] - The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, which includes Adobe, has a history of outperforming its benchmark indices, providing superior returns with reduced risk [9] Performance Outlook - Average forward returns for stocks in the same selection strategy are 12.7% over 6 months and 25.8% over 12 months, with a win rate of over 70% for both intervals [11]

Portfolio Overview - Bridgewater's total portfolio value increased from $24.8 billion in 2Q25 to $25.5 billion in 3Q25, a rise of 3%[1] - The number of positions expanded significantly to 1014, up from 585 in the previous quarter[1] - The share of the top 10 holdings decreased from 36.1% to 32.5%[1] Investment Strategy - Increased allocation to S&P 500 ETFs, with iShares S&P 500 ETF (IVV) becoming the largest holding at $2.71 billion, representing 10.6% of the portfolio[1] - Combined weight of S&P 500 ETFs reached approximately 17.3%, a notable increase from the previous quarter[1] - Emerging market ETF exposure was nearly eliminated, indicating a shift in strategy[1] Sector Adjustments - Significant reductions in holdings of major tech stocks, including Nvidia (down 65%), Alphabet (down 53%), and Microsoft (down 36%) to lock in profits[1] - Full exit from SPDR Gold Trust, reflecting a tactical profit-taking move after a strong price rally[1] - The portfolio remains biased towards information technology but has shifted to a more balanced allocation across sectors[1] Notable Transactions - Major increases in positions included Lam Research (+111%), Mastercard (+191%), and Workday (+132%) among others[1] - New positions initiated in Reddit and Robinhood, contributing to a more diversified portfolio with 493 new holdings[1] Risk Management - The strategy reflects a commitment to dynamic balance and risk-aware positioning in an uncertain economic environment[1] - The overall approach aims to enhance portfolio resilience by reducing concentration and broadening holdings[1]

Market Performance - US stock markets experienced a significant decline, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling by 1.65%, the S&P 500 down by 1.66%, and the Nasdaq Composite dropping by 2.29% [1] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index, which tracks Chinese companies listed in the US, also fell by 1.59% after initially showing strength [1] - The Magnificent 7 index, which includes major tech stocks, decreased by 2.26%, closing at 203.76 points [1] Individual Stock Movements - Tesla saw a sharp decline of 6.64%, while Nvidia dropped by 3.58% and Alphabet's Google A shares fell by 2.84% [1] - Other notable declines included AMD down by 4.22%, and TSMC down by 2.90% [1] - In contrast, Eli Lilly rose by 0.50% and Berkshire Hathaway's Class B shares increased by 2.13% [1] Broader Tech Sector Trends - The "super" market cap tech stock index fell by 2.88%, closing at 394.92 points [1] - Other tech companies such as Oracle, Broadcom, Qualcomm, Adobe, Salesforce, and Netflix also experienced declines, with Oracle down by 4.15% and Broadcom down by 4.29% [1]

Core Insights - The Accel 2025 Globalscape report highlights a significant divergence in performance between AI infrastructure and traditional enterprise software, with AI infrastructure companies experiencing substantial market cap growth [3][4][7] - Companies that are AI-native or focused on AI infrastructure are being rewarded in the market, while traditional SaaS companies are facing challenges [8][9] Market Performance - AI infrastructure companies collectively gained $4.9 trillion in market cap, with Nvidia leading at $1.6 trillion, followed by Alphabet at $1.2 trillion and IBM at $288 billion [4] - Traditional enterprise software companies like Salesforce and Adobe saw declines in market cap, with Salesforce losing $72 billion despite being profitable [7][24] Revenue Efficiency - AI-native companies are achieving revenue per employee metrics that are 6-12 times better than traditional SaaS, indicating a complete reimagining of operational efficiency [10][13] - Examples include Cursor with $6.1 million ARR per FTE and Lovable with $3.4 million ARR per FTE, compared to traditional SaaS companies averaging $0.46-0.54 million ARR per FTE [15] Adoption Trends - There is unprecedented velocity in bottoms-up adoption of AI technologies, driven by viral growth through developer communities and social media [14][16] - Companies that can achieve viral adoption are positioned to build significant revenue before needing a traditional sales team [16] Gross Margins - Emerging AI application leaders are currently facing gross margins between 7-40%, significantly lower than the 76% average for the Globalscape Public Cloud Index [18][19] - Despite current margin challenges, the expectation is that costs will decrease, leading to improved unit economics as companies scale [20] Venture Capital Trends - Venture capital funding for Cloud and AI reached an estimated $184 billion in 2025, with a significant portion allocated to AI model funding [29][30] - The US leads in model funding, while Europe and Israel are competitive in application funding [30] Compute Infrastructure - The projected capital expenditure for AI infrastructure is $4.1 trillion by 2030, with a significant power shortfall anticipated in the US [32] - Hyperscalers are expected to finance the necessary buildout through their operating cash flow [32] AI Budget Increases - 45% of businesses plan to increase their AI budgets by 10-25% over the next year, indicating strong interest in agentic AI [35][36] IPO Market Dynamics - The tech IPO market is reopening, with eight software/AI IPOs in 2025, but traditional SaaS companies without an AI narrative are struggling to attract attention [43][47] - Successful IPOs are characterized by AI-driven efficiency, clear paths to profitability, and demonstrated enterprise traction [49][50] Unicorn Formation - A record number of AI unicorns are being formed quickly, with 65% of breakout AI companies being 0-3 years old [51][53] - Companies are achieving significant valuations in a fraction of the time compared to previous eras, with some reaching $100 million ARR in as little as 8 months [53][55]

Core Viewpoint - Adobe Systems is expected to show positive earnings growth in its upcoming release, with analysts projecting an increase in both EPS and revenue compared to the previous year [2][3]. Financial Performance - Adobe Systems' expected EPS for the upcoming quarter is $5.39, reflecting a 12.06% increase year-over-year [2]. - The anticipated revenue for the same quarter is $6.1 billion, indicating an 8.85% increase compared to the prior year [2]. - For the full year, earnings are projected at $20.77 per share, a 12.76% increase, and revenue is expected to reach $23.67 billion, a 10.06% increase from the previous year [3]. Analyst Estimates - Recent changes in analyst estimates for Adobe Systems are crucial as they reflect short-term business trends [4]. - Upward revisions in estimates indicate analysts' positive outlook on the company's operations and profit generation capabilities [4]. Valuation Metrics - Adobe Systems has a Forward P/E ratio of 16.04, which is lower than the industry average of 24.04, suggesting it is trading at a discount [7]. - The current PEG ratio for Adobe Systems is 1.22, compared to the industry average of 1.88, indicating a favorable growth outlook relative to its valuation [7]. Industry Context - The Computer - Software industry, part of the broader Computer and Technology sector, holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 77, placing it in the top 32% of over 250 industries [8]. - Strong industry rankings correlate with better stock performance, with the top 50% rated industries outperforming the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [8].