Employment at US companies increased in December as private-sector payrolls grew by 41,000 after declining in the prior month, according to ADP Research data released Wednesday. Michael McKee reports on Bloomberg Television. ...

Core Insights - Private sector employment increased by 41,000 jobs in December, with a year-over-year pay increase of 4.4% [1][10] - The ADP National Employment Report provides an independent measure of the labor market based on anonymized payroll data from over 26 million private-sector employees in the U.S. [2] Employment Changes - The increase in jobs was primarily driven by the education and health services, and leisure and hospitality sectors [5] - The breakdown of job changes by industry shows a loss of 3,000 jobs in goods-producing sectors and a gain of 44,000 jobs in service-providing sectors [6] - Regional job changes included gains of 40,000 in the Northeast, 9,000 in the Midwest, and 54,000 in the South, while the West saw a loss of 61,000 jobs [7][9] Industry-Specific Insights - Notable job changes by industry included: - Education/health services: +39,000 - Leisure/hospitality: +24,000 - Professional/business services: -29,000 - Manufacturing: -5,000 [8] Pay Insights - Pay growth for job-stayers remained at 4.4% year-over-year, while pay growth for job-changers increased to 6.6% from 6.3% [10] - Median pay changes for job-stayers varied by industry, with financial activities at 5.2% and leisure/hospitality at 4.5% [14] - Pay growth for job-stayers by firm size showed small firms at 2.3%, medium firms at 4.6%, and large firms at 4.8% [21]

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Market Overview - Major market indexes are mixed in pre-market trading, with the Dow down 46 points, S&P 500 up 14 points, Nasdaq up 144 points, and Russell 2000 up 1 point [1] - Over the past month, the Dow and S&P 500 have increased by 1.2% and 0.55% respectively, while the Nasdaq has decreased by 0.7% and Russell 2000 is nearly flat at -0.02% [1] Upcoming Earnings - Q4 earnings season is set to begin next week with major banks like JPMorgan and Citigroup, along with early reporters such as Delta Air Lines [2] - These earnings reports will provide insights into the performance of the U.S. economy in the final quarter of 2025 [2] Employment Data - The first full week of the month is referred to as "Jobs Week," which will include monthly employment data from both private and overall non-farm sectors [3] - ADP's private-sector payrolls reported a loss of 32,000 jobs last month, the worst figure in nearly three years, with forecasts predicting a gain of 45,000 jobs for December [4][3] - The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) will also be released, showing a recovery in job openings from summer lows, with October's openings at 7.67 million [5] - Weekly Jobless Claims report indicates a significant drop to 199,000, marking only the second time in two years that claims fell below 200,000 [6] - Continuing Claims have decreased to below 1.9 million, suggesting a perceived strength in the labor market despite notable layoffs at companies like Amazon and Nestlé [7] Employment Situation Report - The Employment Situation report on Friday is expected to show an unemployment rate of 4.7%, the highest since September 2021, with non-farm payrolls projected to increase by 54,000 for December [9][10] - A positive surprise in the employment data could be beneficial for the market, while a disappointing report may increase the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut [10] Commodity Market - Oil prices are rising, along with gold and silver, as a hedge against risks to stock market equities, amid geopolitical tensions such as the U.S. invasion of Venezuela [11] - Bond yields remain stable, with the 10-year yield currently below 4.18% [11] Manufacturing Data - ISM Manufacturing numbers for December are expected to rise by 10 basis points to 48.3%, still indicating contraction as it remains below the 50 level [12] - ISM Services data is anticipated to reach 52.1%, reflecting growth in that sector [12]

Core Insights - The article provides an extensive analysis of Automatic Data Processing (ADP) in comparison to its competitors in the Professional Services industry, focusing on financial metrics, market position, and growth prospects [1] Company Overview - Automatic Data Processing is a global technology company specializing in cloud-based human capital management solutions, serving over 1.1 million clients and paying more than 42 million workers across 140 countries as of fiscal 2025 [2] Financial Metrics Comparison - ADP has a Price to Earnings (P/E) ratio of 24.96, which is below the industry average by 0.86x, indicating potential undervaluation [5] - The Price to Book (P/B) ratio of 16.05 is 2.42x the industry average, suggesting that ADP may be overvalued in terms of book value [5] - The Price to Sales (P/S) ratio of 4.94 is 1.92x the industry average, indicating potential overvaluation relative to sales performance [5] - ADP's Return on Equity (ROE) stands at 16.13%, which is 11.12% above the industry average, reflecting efficient equity utilization [5] - The company exhibits an EBITDA of $1.59 billion, which is 10.6x above the industry average, indicating strong profitability [5] - ADP's gross profit of $2.34 billion is 5.32x above the industry average, showcasing robust earnings from core operations [5] - Revenue growth for ADP is 7.09%, exceeding the industry average of 4.04%, indicating strong sales performance [5] Debt to Equity Ratio - ADP has a debt-to-equity (D/E) ratio of 1.49, placing it in the middle of its top 4 peers, suggesting a balanced financial structure with a moderate level of debt relative to equity [8] Key Takeaways - ADP's low P/E ratio compared to peers indicates potential undervaluation, while high P/B and P/S ratios suggest overvaluation relative to industry standards [9] - The company demonstrates strong performance in ROE, EBITDA, gross profit, and revenue growth compared to industry peers, reflecting favorable financial health and growth prospects [9]

Core Viewpoint - Automatic Data Processing (ADP) is often perceived as a "boring" company, yet it has historically traded at a premium due to its essential role in payroll and human resources, which are critical workflows in corporate America. However, the stock is currently about 23% below its 52-week high, raising questions about its favor among investors [1][7]. Financial Performance - In the first quarter of fiscal 2026 (ended September 30, 2025), ADP reported a revenue increase of 7% year over year, reaching $5.2 billion. Earnings per share (EPS) rose by 6% to $2.49, with non-GAAP EPS increasing by 7% year over year, indicating steady growth for the company [3]. Key Metrics - A concerning trend has emerged regarding ADP's core volume metric, "pays per control," which measures the number of employees on ADP clients' payrolls in the U.S. In the first quarter of fiscal 2026, this metric was approximately flat year over year, a deceleration from the 1% growth reported in the previous two quarters [4][5]. Future Outlook - For fiscal 2026, ADP has guided that the U.S. pays per control will remain "approximately" flat, alongside a slight deceleration in top-line growth. The company anticipates revenue growth of 5% to 6% over fiscal 2024 [6].

Core Insights - The S&P 500 index experienced a decline after seven months of consecutive gains, closing the month with a loss of 0.22% [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The SPDR® S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) finished the last month with a loss of 0.22% [1]

Market Overview - The market opened positively on the first trading day of the new year, with the Dow up by 139 points (+0.29%), S&P 500 up by 35 points (+0.51%), Nasdaq up by 235 points (+0.93%), and Russell 2000 up by 13 points (+0.53%) [1] - The Nasdaq experienced a remarkable +39% gain from April tariff lows, while the Russell 2000, S&P 500, and Dow saw gains of +33%, +32%, and +24% respectively [1] January Effect - The "January Effect" refers to strategies that lead to higher market growth at the start of the year, influenced by tax-loss harvesting, year-end bonuses reinvested into the market, and a generally positive outlook for the new year [2] Economic Challenges - Potential headwinds for the upcoming year include tariffs, employment insecurity, and rising healthcare costs, which may impact U.S. consumer spending and economic growth [3] - A possible federal government shutdown is anticipated as Congress reconvenes [3] Tariff Adjustments - Some tariffs are being rolled back for the new year, including those on furniture and Italian pasta, indicating a recognition of affordability issues both domestically and internationally [4] Upcoming Market Activity - A more normal trading volume is expected to resume with the first full trading week of 2026, and any potential "January Effect" may manifest next week [5] Employment Data - Jobs Week is approaching, with key reports including ADP private-sector payrolls and the Employment Situation report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, following a weak month for job growth and a rising unemployment rate [6] Manufacturing Report - The final S&P U.S. Manufacturing report for December is expected to remain above the growth threshold at 51.7, although it reflects a decline from the previous reading of 51.8, marking the lowest level since mid-summer [7]

Core Viewpoint - Automatic Data Processing Inc. (ADP) is experiencing a decline in stock price, with a current trading price of $256.74, reflecting a 1.07% drop in the session, a 0.84% decrease over the past month, and an 11.81% decline over the past year [1]. Group 1: P/E Ratio Analysis - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is a critical metric for evaluating a company's market performance, comparing the current share price to the company's earnings per share (EPS) [5]. - ADP has a lower P/E ratio compared to the Professional Services industry average of 28.66, suggesting that the stock may be undervalued despite potential concerns about its performance relative to peers [6]. - A lower P/E ratio can indicate undervaluation but may also imply that shareholders do not expect future growth, highlighting the need for a comprehensive analysis beyond just the P/E ratio [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights three technology stocks that are currently available at attractive prices, offering potential for both dividend growth and capital gains as the market continues to recover from previous corrections [1]. Group 1: Microsoft - Microsoft (MSFT) has shown stability and growth potential, with its Cloud segment revenue increasing by 26% year over year in Q1 of its fiscal year [4][6]. - The Intelligent Cloud segment, driven by AI demand, reported a 28% year-over-year revenue increase, with Azure's revenue growing by 40%, indicating a strong growth trajectory [5]. - The stock is currently priced at $485.46, with a market cap of $3.6 trillion and a P/E ratio of 26, reflecting a fair valuation for a company expected to grow earnings at an annualized rate of 16% to 17% [6]. Group 2: Motorola Solutions - Motorola Solutions (MSI) specializes in communications equipment and software for various sectors, having acquired Silvus Technologies for $4.4 billion to enhance its offerings [7][8]. - The company is projected to grow earnings by 9% annually over the next three to five years, with the stock trading at a P/E ratio of 25, which is below its 10-year average of 32 [10]. - The current stock price is $383.38, with a market cap of $64 billion, making it a solid investment opportunity [9]. Group 3: Automatic Data Processing - Automatic Data Processing (ADP) provides essential technology tools for payroll and HR functions, benefiting from a growing global workforce [11][12]. - The company has a strong track record of dividend increases, having raised its dividend for 50 consecutive years, with an average increase of 11.5% annually over the past decade [12]. - ADP's stock is currently priced at $258.51, with a market cap of $105 billion, trading at 23 times its full-year earnings estimates, presenting a favorable buying opportunity [13][14].