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Private-Sector Payroll Numbers Come in Grim
ZACKS· 2025-10-01 15:51
Core Insights - The private sector experienced a loss of 32,000 jobs in September, significantly below the expected gain of 45,000 jobs, following a downward revision of August's figures from 54,000 to a loss of 3,000 jobs [1][3] - The overall labor market is showing signs of weakness, particularly with small companies losing 40,000 jobs while only large corporations gained 33,000 jobs [2][3] Private-Sector Jobs Data Breakdown - The ratio of goods-producing to services jobs remained stable, with goods jobs down by 3,000 and services jobs down by 28,000 [2] - Education and Healthcare sectors led job creation with 33,000 new jobs, while sectors like Trade/Transportation/Utilities, Professional/Business Services, and Leisure & Hospitality saw losses of 7,000, 13,000, and 19,000 jobs respectively [4] Income Change Metrics - Job Stayers saw a 4.5% increase in income compared to a year ago, while Job Changers experienced a 6.6% increase, indicating a narrowing gap in income growth [5] Market Reaction - Pre-market futures showed a negative response to the job numbers, with the Dow down 160 points, S&P 500 down 30 points, and Nasdaq down 130 points, suggesting expectations for potential interest rate cuts [6] Government Shutdown Impact - The federal government shutdown is likely to hinder further job reports from the U.S. Department of Labor and the Bureau of Labor Statistics, limiting insights into the labor market's current state [7]
ADP Sees Negative -32K Jobs in September
ZACKS· 2025-10-01 15:16
Core Insights - Automatic Data Processing (ADP) reported a decline of 32,000 jobs in the private sector for September, significantly below the expected increase of 45,000 jobs [1] - The August figures were revised down from an initial gain of 54,000 jobs to a loss of 3,000 jobs [1] - The overall labor market appears to be weakening, with the federal government shutdown likely exacerbating the situation [3][7] Private-Sector Job Breakdown - The job losses were primarily in small companies (under 50 employees) which lost 40,000 jobs, while medium-sized firms (50-499 employees) shed 20,000 jobs [2] - Large corporations (500+ employees) were the only segment to gain jobs, adding 33,000 positions [2] - By industry, Education & Healthcare added 33,000 jobs, while sectors like Trade/Transportation/Utilities, Professional/Business Services, and Leisure & Hospitality experienced losses of 7,000, 13,000, and 19,000 jobs respectively [4] Income Change Metrics - Job Stayers saw a 4.5% increase in income compared to a year ago, while Job Changers experienced a 6.6% increase, indicating a narrowing gap in income growth [5] Market Reaction - Pre-market futures showed a negative reaction to the job numbers, with the Dow down 160 points, S&P 500 down 30 points, and Nasdaq down 130 points [6] - Bond yields, particularly for the 10-year and 2-year, also declined, suggesting expectations for potential interest rate cuts [6] Future Job Data Expectations - Due to the government shutdown, further job data from the U.S. Department of Labor and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is unlikely to be released this week, limiting insights into the labor market [7]
“小非农”意外萎缩!美国9月ADP就业减少3.2万人,预期为增加5.1万人
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-10-01 15:06
数据调整与潜在趋势 此次就业数据的意外下滑,部分源于ADP的年度数据基准调整。ADP在一份声明中解释称,公司在进行年度基准校准时,所依据的"季度就业 与薪资普查"(QCEW)原始数据存在"高于正常水平的缺失或修订值"。 美国私营部门就业人数在9月意外下降,这不仅放大了经济降温的信号,也让交易员们重新将美联储在年底前进行两次降息的可能性摆上台 面。 周三发布的数据显示,美国9月私营企业就业人数意外减少32000人,而此前一个月的数据也被修正为减少3000人。这一结果与市场预期大相径 庭,据彭博社对经济学家的调查,预测的中位数为增加51000人。 意外疲软的就业报告发布后,交易员们迅速加大了对美联储降息的押注,认为到今年年底前再进行两次降息的可能性显著上升。自美联储主席 鲍威尔在9月的议息会议上强调政策依赖数据以来,这是市场最接近完全消化这一降息前景。 在当前美国政府停摆,本周五的关键官方就业报告可能无法发布的背景下,ADP数据的重要性被异常放大。这份报告已成为投资者和决策者评 估劳动力市场状况的少数几个关键指标之一。 QCEW是由美国劳工统计局发布的全面数据集,几乎涵盖所有美国就业岗位。由于数据质量问题,ADP ...
Stocks drop, gold surges as Wall Street on edge at start of US government shutdown
New York Post· 2025-10-01 15:02
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes fell at the start of Wednesday’s trading session as Wall Street pondered the long-term implications of a federal government shutdown and its impact on the US economy.The S&P shed 0.2% while the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.3%, falling more than 70 points just after the opening bell on Wednesday.The Dow Jones Industrial Average hovered near flat after an early 52-point decline. 3 The major stock indexes fell on Wall Street on Wednesday as investors digested the news of a federal g ...
Private payrolls declined in September by 32,000 in ADP report coming amid shutdown data blackout
Youtube· 2025-10-01 14:53
We do have a big number coming up right now though. ADP private payroll data just hitting the wires and Steve Leeman is here with those numbers. Steve, >> uh minus 32,000 uh versus an estimate of 45,000.Put an asterisk on that. We're going to explain why that's lower than expected. In just a second, the good sector down 3,000, the service sector down 28,000, the non-farm payroll for Friday is 51,000.Now, this number here that you saw was a result in part of ADP incorporating those recent big revisions from ...
Hedge America Trade Speeds Up On Government Shutdown; Plan To Buy Any Big Drop; Blind Money Buying Ahead - Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL)
Benzinga· 2025-10-01 14:36
Core Insights - The article discusses the current market dynamics, particularly focusing on the "Magnificent Seven" stocks and the implications of recent economic data on investment strategies [5][6][11]. Group 1: Market Trends - Money flows in major tech stocks (Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, NVIDIA, Tesla) are currently negative, indicating potential challenges for these companies [6]. - The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) is highlighted as a popular ETF for gold, reflecting a growing interest in gold as a hedge against economic uncertainties [7]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - API crude inventories reported a draw of 3.674 million barrels, slightly less than the previous draw of 3.821 million barrels, indicating a tightening oil market [8]. - The ADP employment change showed a decline of 32,000 jobs, contrasting with a consensus expectation of an increase of 40,000, suggesting a weakening employment landscape [11]. - The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index came in at 94.2, below the consensus of 96.0, further indicating declining consumer sentiment [11]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to consider maintaining long-term positions while also preparing for potential market dips, particularly in the context of a 4% to 7% decline in the stock market [10][11]. - The article suggests that a protection band strategy should be employed, adjusting cash and hedge levels based on individual risk preferences [11][12].
Private Payrolls Show Weakness as U.S. Government Shuts Down
Youtube· 2025-10-01 13:30
We're going live to the CBOE. Kevin Hanks is standing by and he has our prebell playbook. Good morning to you, Kevin Hanks. Good morning, Nicole.The government is shut down, but Schwab network remains open, Nicole. And today we got economic data from two places. I don't know how much more we'll get this week, but we got mortgage applications this morning.30-year mortgage rose from 6.34% to 6.46%. Therefore, the couple week strength we've had in mortgages is now lower. Uh the composite down 12.7%.Down 1% in ...
关键时刻“两眼一抹黑”!“小非农”爆冷创两年半最大降幅 政府数据还“停摆”
智通财经网· 2025-10-01 13:22
Core Insights - In September, the U.S. private sector experienced the largest decline in employment in two and a half years, indicating a weakening labor market, exacerbated by a government shutdown that has led to data reporting issues [1][3] - The ADP report revealed a loss of 32,000 jobs in September, contrasting with economists' expectations of an increase of 45,000 jobs [1][3] - The August employment data was revised down from an initial increase of 54,000 to a decrease of 3,000 [1] Employment Sector Analysis - Multiple sectors saw job reductions in September, with the education and healthcare sectors adding 33,000 jobs, partially offsetting the overall decline [3][4] - The leisure and hospitality sector lost 19,000 jobs due to the end of the vacation season, while other service sectors decreased by 16,000 jobs, professional and business services by 13,000, trade, transportation, and utilities by 7,000, and construction by 5,000 [3][4] - Service providers reduced 28,000 jobs, while goods-producing industries saw a decrease of 3,000 jobs [4] Business Size Impact - Small businesses with fewer than 50 employees lost 40,000 jobs, while larger companies with 500 or more employees added 33,000 jobs [4] Economic Growth Context - Despite a strong economic growth rate of 3.8% in Q2, the employment data reflects a cautious hiring attitude among U.S. employers [4] - The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tool projects a Q3 growth rate of 3.9% [4] Labor Market Concerns - The current unemployment rate remains relatively low at 4.3%, but concerns about the labor market are increasing, with risks of labor demand falling below supply [6] - The market had anticipated an increase of 51,000 jobs in the upcoming Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) non-farm payroll report, which includes government jobs [6] Wage Growth Insights - Despite the slowdown in hiring, wages grew by 4.5% year-over-year in September, remaining stable compared to August, although the wage growth rate for job switchers fell to 6.6%, down 0.5 percentage points from August [6] Data Reporting Adjustments - The unexpected decline in employment numbers may also be attributed to data analysis issues, with ADP recalibrating past employment statistics based on the BLS's September benchmark data [6][7] - The QCEW data, which is used for annual adjustments of overall employment data, indicated a significant reduction of 911,000 jobs as of March this year [7]
Private sector lost 32,000 jobs in September, ADP says
Fox Business· 2025-10-01 13:01
Companies in the private sector lost 32,000 jobs in June, payroll processing firm ADP said Wednesday. The figure is below economists’ estimates of a gain of 50,000 jobs. The prior month's payrolls number was revised downward to a loss of 3,000 from an initially reported gain of 54,000."Despite the strong economic growth we saw in the second quarter, this month's release further validates what we've been seeing in the labor market, that U.S. employers have been cautious with hiring," said ADP chief economist ...
ADP report: Private employers unexpectedly shed 32,000 jobs as labor market continues pullback
Yahoo Finance· 2025-10-01 12:37
US private employers shed 32,000 jobs in September, the latest sign that the labor market is in a serious pullback. The data out Wednesday from payroll processor ADP was far below economists’ expectations of 51,000 jobs added. Private payrolls for August were also revised sharply lower to a loss of 3,000, after data initially showed a gain of 54,000. “Despite the strong economic growth we saw in the second quarter, this month's release further validates what we've been seeing in the labor market, that ...