Core Insights - The December private-sector payrolls from ADP reported an increase of +41K, slightly below estimates but showing a rebound from the previous month's revised figure of -29K [1][2] - The average monthly ADP jobs numbers over the past six months have been weak, averaging only +27K new hires, compared to +122K in the previous six months [2] Employment Trends - Goods-producing jobs decreased by -3K, but losses are narrowing, while services gained +44K positions, with medium-sized firms leading with +34K new hires [3] - The Education/Healthcare sector added +39K jobs, followed by Leisure/Hospitality with +24K and Trade/Transportation/Utilities with +11K, while Professional/Business Services lost -29K positions [4] Wage Growth - Average wage gains for job stayers were +4.4% and for job changers +4.6%, indicating a tight labor market, with job changers not seeing significant wage increases as typically expected [5] Market Expectations - The November Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) is expected to show 7.6 million job openings, consistent with recent months and reflecting a high level of job insecurity among the labor force [6] - ISM Services for December is projected to decrease by 40 basis points to 52.2%, indicating economic growth, while ISM Manufacturing fell to 47.9%, suggesting economic contraction [7] - Factory Orders for October are anticipated to decline by -1.2%, aligning with the weakening employment environment indicated by ADP's Goods-producing jobs and ISM Manufacturing data [8]

Core Insights - The ADP National Employment Report for December 2025 indicates a moderate recovery in the U.S. job market, with private sector non-farm employment increasing by 41,000 jobs, reversing a decline of 29,000 jobs in November [1][2] - The report highlights that job growth is concentrated in the service sector, particularly in education, healthcare, leisure, and hospitality, while some sectors like professional services and information services experienced job losses [1][2] Employment Growth - Private sector job growth in December 2025 was primarily driven by small and medium-sized enterprises, with small businesses (1-49 employees) adding 9,000 jobs and medium-sized businesses (50-499 employees) adding 34,000 jobs, while large businesses (500+ employees) only added 2,000 jobs [2] - The South and Northeast regions saw job increases of 54,000 and 40,000 respectively, while the West experienced a significant decline of 61,000 jobs, indicating regional disparities in employment growth [2] Wage Growth - Wage growth remains moderate, with average annual salary increases for employees staying in their current positions at 4.4%, while those changing jobs saw an increase of 6.6%, reflecting a slight uptick from the previous month [2] - The manufacturing sector saw a wage growth of 4.8%, and the financial services sector experienced a 5.2% increase, indicating stronger wage growth in these industries [2] Economic Indicators - The ADP report serves as a key forward-looking indicator of the U.S. private sector job market, based on anonymous weekly payroll data from over 26 million employees across more than 500,000 businesses, providing insights into employment dynamics across industries, company sizes, and regions [3] - Following the release of the ADP data, U.S. Treasury yields continued to decline, with the 10-year Treasury yield dropping by 3.9 basis points to 4.14%, while spot gold and silver prices fell by 1% and nearly 5% respectively [3] Market Expectations - The upcoming non-farm payroll data, expected to show an increase of 73,000 jobs for December 2025, will be closely watched, especially after previous data collection disruptions due to government shutdowns [4] - Analysts suggest that the ADP data, despite its softness, confirms a trend of "orderly cooling" in the labor market, which may reinforce expectations for the Federal Reserve to continue its rate-cutting cycle in the first half of the year [4]

Core Viewpoint - The ADP National Employment Report indicates a moderate recovery in the U.S. job market, with private sector non-farm employment increasing by 41,000 in December 2025, reversing a decline of 29,000 in November 2025, although it fell short of the Dow Jones consensus estimate of 48,000 [2][4]. Employment Growth - The employment growth is primarily concentrated in the service sector, with education and healthcare contributing 39,000 jobs, leisure and hospitality adding 24,000 jobs, and trade, transportation, and utilities increasing by 11,000 jobs. However, some sectors experienced job losses, including professional and business services, which decreased by 29,000 jobs, and the information services sector, which lost 12,000 jobs [2][3]. - The overall job market showed regional disparities, with the South and Northeast adding 54,000 and 40,000 jobs respectively, while the West saw a significant decline of 61,000 jobs, particularly in the Pacific region, which lost 59,000 jobs [2]. Business Size Impact - Job growth was predominantly driven by small and medium-sized enterprises, with medium-sized businesses (50-499 employees) adding 34,000 jobs and small businesses (1-49 employees) contributing 9,000 jobs. Large enterprises (500+ employees) only added 2,000 jobs [3][4]. Wage Growth - Wage growth remains moderate, with average annual salary increases for employees staying in their positions at 4.4%, unchanged from November. The manufacturing sector saw a 4.8% increase, while the financial services sector experienced a 5.2% increase [3][4]. - Employees who changed jobs saw a salary increase of 6.6%, up by 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a cooling labor market [4]. Economic Indicators - The ADP report serves as a key forward-looking indicator of the U.S. private sector job market, based on anonymous weekly salary data from over 26 million private sector employees. It provides insights into employment dynamics across industries, business sizes, and regions [4]. - Following the release of the ADP data, U.S. Treasury yields continued to decline, with the 10-year Treasury yield dropping by 3.9 basis points to 4.14%. Gold and silver prices also fell, with spot gold down by 1% and spot silver down nearly 5% [4][5].

Group 1 - The latest ADP employment report indicates a slight recovery in employment numbers, with November's figures revised from -32,000 to -29,000, although still below expectations [2] - The December employment growth was primarily driven by the service sector and small businesses with fewer than 500 employees, adding 39,000 jobs in education and healthcare, 24,000 in leisure and hospitality, and 11,000 in trade, transportation, and utilities [4] - The report highlights a decline in certain sectors, including a loss of 29,000 jobs in professional and business services, 12,000 in information services, and 5,000 in manufacturing [4] Group 2 - ADP's Chief Economist Nela Richardson noted that small businesses have recovered from the employment decline in November, while larger employers are reducing their workforce [4] - The report also shows an increase in annual salary growth for job switchers to 6.6%, up from a previous low of 6.3%, while salaries for employees remaining in their jobs remained stable at 4.4% [4] - Economists expect a recovery in the upcoming non-farm payroll data, predicting an addition of 73,000 jobs in December, up from 64,000, with a slight decrease in the unemployment rate to 4.5% [4]

Group 1 - Private employers added 41,000 jobs in December, indicating a modest rebound from November's losses, but the underlying economy appears fragile [1][7] - Job losses were concentrated in sectors tied to business confidence, with professional and business services losing 29,000 jobs and information services losing 12,000, negating the overall job growth [2] - Gains were seen in education and health services, leisure, and hospitality, which are more insulated from economic cycles, suggesting hiring is driven by necessity rather than economic expansion [3] Group 2 - Employment on the West Coast, particularly in tech-heavy regions like California, Oregon, and Washington, saw noticeable declines, indicating a pullback in tech and consulting job markets [4] - Large companies added only 2,000 jobs, while small and mid-sized businesses accounted for most of the net growth, reflecting cautious behavior among corporate employers [5][6] - The divergence in ADP data aligns with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's warning that official hiring data may overstate job creation, hinting at a potential quiet contraction [7][8]

Employment at US companies increased in December as private-sector payrolls grew by 41,000 after declining in the prior month, according to ADP Research data released Wednesday. Michael McKee reports on Bloomberg Television. ...

Core Insights - Private sector employment increased by 41,000 jobs in December, with a year-over-year pay increase of 4.4% [1][10] - The ADP National Employment Report provides an independent measure of the labor market based on anonymized payroll data from over 26 million private-sector employees in the U.S. [2] Employment Changes - The increase in jobs was primarily driven by the education and health services, and leisure and hospitality sectors [5] - The breakdown of job changes by industry shows a loss of 3,000 jobs in goods-producing sectors and a gain of 44,000 jobs in service-providing sectors [6] - Regional job changes included gains of 40,000 in the Northeast, 9,000 in the Midwest, and 54,000 in the South, while the West saw a loss of 61,000 jobs [7][9] Industry-Specific Insights - Notable job changes by industry included: - Education/health services: +39,000 - Leisure/hospitality: +24,000 - Professional/business services: -29,000 - Manufacturing: -5,000 [8] Pay Insights - Pay growth for job-stayers remained at 4.4% year-over-year, while pay growth for job-changers increased to 6.6% from 6.3% [10] - Median pay changes for job-stayers varied by industry, with financial activities at 5.2% and leisure/hospitality at 4.5% [14] - Pay growth for job-stayers by firm size showed small firms at 2.3%, medium firms at 4.6%, and large firms at 4.8% [21]

Core Viewpoint - Warren Buffett has officially retired from his position as the CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, marking a significant transition for the company and its future leadership [1]. Group 1 - Warren Buffett, known as the Oracle of Omaha, has stepped down after a long tenure at the helm of Berkshire Hathaway [1].

Market Overview - Major market indexes are mixed in pre-market trading, with the Dow down 46 points, S&P 500 up 14 points, Nasdaq up 144 points, and Russell 2000 up 1 point [1] - Over the past month, the Dow and S&P 500 have increased by 1.2% and 0.55% respectively, while the Nasdaq has decreased by 0.7% and Russell 2000 is nearly flat at -0.02% [1] Upcoming Earnings - Q4 earnings season is set to begin next week with major banks like JPMorgan and Citigroup, along with early reporters such as Delta Air Lines [2] - These earnings reports will provide insights into the performance of the U.S. economy in the final quarter of 2025 [2] Employment Data - The first full week of the month is referred to as "Jobs Week," which will include monthly employment data from both private and overall non-farm sectors [3] - ADP's private-sector payrolls reported a loss of 32,000 jobs last month, the worst figure in nearly three years, with forecasts predicting a gain of 45,000 jobs for December [4][3] - The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) will also be released, showing a recovery in job openings from summer lows, with October's openings at 7.67 million [5] - Weekly Jobless Claims report indicates a significant drop to 199,000, marking only the second time in two years that claims fell below 200,000 [6] - Continuing Claims have decreased to below 1.9 million, suggesting a perceived strength in the labor market despite notable layoffs at companies like Amazon and Nestlé [7] Employment Situation Report - The Employment Situation report on Friday is expected to show an unemployment rate of 4.7%, the highest since September 2021, with non-farm payrolls projected to increase by 54,000 for December [9][10] - A positive surprise in the employment data could be beneficial for the market, while a disappointing report may increase the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut [10] Commodity Market - Oil prices are rising, along with gold and silver, as a hedge against risks to stock market equities, amid geopolitical tensions such as the U.S. invasion of Venezuela [11] - Bond yields remain stable, with the 10-year yield currently below 4.18% [11] Manufacturing Data - ISM Manufacturing numbers for December are expected to rise by 10 basis points to 48.3%, still indicating contraction as it remains below the 50 level [12] - ISM Services data is anticipated to reach 52.1%, reflecting growth in that sector [12]

Core Insights - The article provides an extensive analysis of Automatic Data Processing (ADP) in comparison to its competitors in the Professional Services industry, focusing on financial metrics, market position, and growth prospects [1] Company Overview - Automatic Data Processing is a global technology company specializing in cloud-based human capital management solutions, serving over 1.1 million clients and paying more than 42 million workers across 140 countries as of fiscal 2025 [2] Financial Metrics Comparison - ADP has a Price to Earnings (P/E) ratio of 24.96, which is below the industry average by 0.86x, indicating potential undervaluation [5] - The Price to Book (P/B) ratio of 16.05 is 2.42x the industry average, suggesting that ADP may be overvalued in terms of book value [5] - The Price to Sales (P/S) ratio of 4.94 is 1.92x the industry average, indicating potential overvaluation relative to sales performance [5] - ADP's Return on Equity (ROE) stands at 16.13%, which is 11.12% above the industry average, reflecting efficient equity utilization [5] - The company exhibits an EBITDA of $1.59 billion, which is 10.6x above the industry average, indicating strong profitability [5] - ADP's gross profit of $2.34 billion is 5.32x above the industry average, showcasing robust earnings from core operations [5] - Revenue growth for ADP is 7.09%, exceeding the industry average of 4.04%, indicating strong sales performance [5] Debt to Equity Ratio - ADP has a debt-to-equity (D/E) ratio of 1.49, placing it in the middle of its top 4 peers, suggesting a balanced financial structure with a moderate level of debt relative to equity [8] Key Takeaways - ADP's low P/E ratio compared to peers indicates potential undervaluation, while high P/B and P/S ratios suggest overvaluation relative to industry standards [9] - The company demonstrates strong performance in ROE, EBITDA, gross profit, and revenue growth compared to industry peers, reflecting favorable financial health and growth prospects [9]