Right now, ADP employment data just crossing and it is not a positive read on the US economy. It was expected to come in with 10,000 jobs being created. Right now we're seeing a decline of 32,000 jobs.Last week was revised upwards, so we saw 47,000 jobs created versus the 42,000 initially reported. This is the 83 employment change. And this doesn't always cohere with what we see from non-farm payrolls.However, in the absence of non-farm payrolls and in the consistency of this series, this has increasing wei ...

US private employers lost 32,000 positions in November, with job creation seemingly locked in a standstill, according to the private payroll processor ADP. The firm’s revised data showed a gain of 47,000 jobs in October, coming off losses in September and August. Job creation has essentially been flat in the second half of this year, ADP said, and small businesses in particular appeared to struggle in November. “Hiring has been choppy of late as employers weather cautious consumers and an uncertain macro ...

Core Insights - Private sector employment decreased by 32,000 jobs in November 2025, with year-over-year pay growth at 4.4% [1] - Job creation has been stagnant in the second half of 2025, with notable weaknesses in manufacturing, professional and business services, information, and construction sectors [1] Employment Report - Private employers lost 32,000 jobs in November 2025, with significant declines in small businesses leading the downturn [1] - Job losses by industry included: - Goods-producing: -119,000 (Natural resources/mining: 8,000; Construction: -9,000; Manufacturing: -18,000) - Service-providing: -13,000 (Trade/transportation/utilities: 1,000; Information: -20,000; Financial activities: -9,000; Professional/business services: -26,000; Education/health services: 33,000; Leisure/hospitality: 13,000; Other services: -4,000) [1] - Job changes by region showed: - Northeast: -100,000 (New England: -50,000; Mid-Atlantic: -49,000) - Midwest: +45,000 (East North Central: +41,000; West North Central: +4,000) - South: -43,000 (South Atlantic: -78,000; East South Central: +31,000; West South Central: +3,000) - West: +67,000 (Mountain: +13,000; Pacific: +54,000) [1] - Changes by establishment size indicated: - Small establishments: -120,000 (1-19 employees: -46,000; 20-49 employees: -74,000) - Medium establishments: +51,000 (50-249 employees: +31,000; 250-499 employees: +20,000) - Large establishments: +39,000 (500+ employees: +39,000) [1] Pay Insights - Year-over-year pay growth for job-stayers was 4.4%, down from 4.5% in October, while job-changers saw a pay increase of 6.3%, down from 6.7% [1] - Median annual pay changes for job-stayers by industry included: - Goods-producing: Natural resources/mining: 4.3%; Construction: 4.4%; Manufacturing: 4.8% - Service-providing: Trade/transportation/utilities: 4.4%; Information: 4.2%; Financial activities: 5.2%; Professional/business services: 4.2%; Education/health services: 4.3%; Leisure/hospitality: 4.5%; Other services: 4.0% [1] - Median annual pay changes for job-stayers by firm size included: - Small firms: 1-19 employees: 2.5%; 20-49 employees: 4.0% - Medium firms: 50-249 employees: 4.7%; 250-499 employees: 4.8% - Large firms: 500+ employees: 4.9% [1]

Key Takeaways Market Indexes Resumed Winning Ways After Monday's SellingCRWD, AEO and MRVL All Beat on Q3 Earnings to Varying DegreesADP Private Sector Payrolls & More Data Expected WednesdayTuesday, December 2, 2025Major market indexes spent nearly all day in the green today, but did bounce around a bit. Bitcoin finally caught a bid this afternoon, rising nearly +6% to 91.4K, helping struggling Strategy (MSTR) gain over +5% today. Otherwise, the tech AI infrastructure trade seemed to resume without much ne ...

Core Insights - Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP) is valued at $103.3 billion and is a leading provider of human-capital management services, offering cloud-based solutions for payroll, HR, and related services [1][2] - ADP has a strong global presence, operating in over 140 countries and serving more than a million clients [2] - Despite its market strength, ADP's stock has seen a significant decline, falling 22.6% from its 52-week high and trailing the S&P 500 Index [3][4] Financial Performance - In Q1, ADP reported a revenue increase of 7.1% year over year to $5.2 billion, exceeding consensus estimates [5] - Adjusted EPS rose 6.9% to $2.49, also topping expectations by 2.1% [5] - However, a notable decline in operating cash flow by 22.1% year over year to $642.3 million negatively impacted investor sentiment [5] Market Position and Analyst Sentiment - ADP is categorized as a large-cap stock, reflecting its size and influence in the software application industry [2] - The stock has a consensus "Hold" rating from 17 analysts, with a mean price target of $294.50, indicating a potential upside of 15.4% [6] - In comparison, competitor Paychex, Inc. (PAYX) has underperformed ADP, with a 20.4% decline year to date [6]

Core Insights - The article highlights two lesser-known companies, Automatic Data Processing (ADP) and Marzetti, which are notable for their consistent dividend increases, making them attractive to income investors [1][2]. Group 1: Automatic Data Processing (ADP) - ADP has recently celebrated its status as a Dividend King, having increased its quarterly dividend by 10% to $1.70 per share, marking 51 consecutive years of dividend hikes [3][6]. - The company operates in the finance sector, providing payroll and human resources services, and has maintained a stable profit margin between 17% and 20% over the last five fiscal years [4][5]. - For the first quarter of fiscal 2026, ADP reported a 7% year-over-year revenue increase to $5.2 billion and a 6% rise in GAAP net income to $1 billion, indicating sustained profitability [6][5]. - The upcoming dividend payout will be distributed on January 1, 2026, yielding 2.7% based on the most recent stock price [7]. Group 2: Marzetti - Marzetti, a food products supplier, has also increased its dividend for the 63rd consecutive year, raising it by 5% to $1 per share [9]. - The company reported a nearly 6% rise in net sales to over $493 million for the first quarter of 2026, with significant growth in its food service segment, which saw an 8% increase [10][12]. - Marzetti's business model includes a balanced approach between its food service and retail segments, allowing it to mitigate risks associated with fluctuations in consumer spending [13]. - The raised dividend will be paid on December 31 to stockholders of record as of December 5, yielding approximately 2.4% based on the current share price [14].

Core Insights - The article discusses the author's background in analytics and accounting, highlighting over 10 years of experience in the investment sector, progressing from an analyst to a management role [1]. Group 1 - The author holds a master's degree in Analytics from Northwestern University and a bachelor's degree in Accounting [1]. - The author has a personal interest in dividend investing and aims to share insights with the Seeking Alpha community [1]. Group 2 - The author has disclosed a beneficial long position in several companies, including ABBV, ADP, CTAS, FDS, HRL, JNJ, LOW, NEE, O, PEP, TROW, and WST, through various financial instruments [2]. - The article expresses the author's personal opinions and does not involve compensation from any mentioned companies [2].

Group 1 - The stock of Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP) is experiencing significant attention due to high implied volatility in the options market, particularly for the Jan. 16, 2025 $125 Call option [1] - Implied volatility indicates the market's expectation of future price movement, suggesting that investors anticipate a substantial price change or an upcoming event that could trigger a rally or sell-off [2] - Currently, ADP holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) in the Internet – Software industry, which is in the top 28% of the Zacks Industry Rank, but analysts have lowered earnings estimates for the current quarter from $2.61 to $2.51 per share [3] Group 2 - The high implied volatility surrounding ADP may indicate a developing trading opportunity, as options traders often seek to sell premium on options with high implied volatility to capture decay [4]

Core Insights - The U.S. private sector has experienced a significant increase in job losses, averaging over 13,500 jobs lost per week in October and early November, indicating a weakening labor market [1][2][3] Summary by Sections Job Losses - Private sector employers reported an average loss of 13,500 jobs per week for the four weeks ending November 8, which is a notable increase from the previous average loss of 2,500 jobs per week [2][3] - This represents a nearly 20% increase in job losses compared to the prior four-week period, where the average loss was 11,250 jobs per week [3] Labor Market Conditions - Early October showed more stable conditions, with a reported increase of 42,000 private sector payrolls and a year-over-year wage increase of 4.5%, but subsequent data indicated a decline towards the end of the month [4] - ADP's chief economist described the current labor market as a "C plus, B minus" situation, reflecting mixed conditions [5]

Economic Indicators - Retail Sales for September increased by +0.2%, falling short of expectations and down from +0.6% in the previous two months, marking the lowest level since May's -0.8% [2][8] - The Control number for Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) came in at -0.1%, significantly lower than the +0.3% expected and the worst monthly figure in over a year [3] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for September was +0.3%, up from -0.1% the previous month but lower than +0.7% in July; year-over-year PPI increased to +2.7% [4] Employment Data - The preliminary ADP jobs data showed a decline of -13.5K, marking the third consecutive week of job losses, with the 4-week average falling below previous reports [5][6] - Upcoming monthly ADP jobs numbers for October are expected to show a potential weakening in job growth, with a possibility of the headline coming in below zero for four out of the last six months [6] Earnings Reports - Alibaba (BABA) reported earnings of $0.66 per share, missing estimates by 5 cents, but shares rose +3% due to stronger AI cloud sales, with a year-to-date increase of over +90% [9] - Best Buy (BBY) exceeded earnings expectations with $1.40 per share, leading to modest share gains, while Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) surpassed expectations by over +10% with earnings of $2.36 per share, resulting in an +18% increase in shares [10] - Kohl's (KSS) reported a positive surprise of +152% with earnings of +$0.10 per share, leading to a +26% increase in early trading [11] - Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS) beat earnings expectations with $2.78 per share, but shares fell due to the announcement of Foot Locker closures [12]