FY Q3 2025 Earnings Supplement May 8, 2025 Safe Harbor Statement/Use of Non-GAAP Financial Measures Cautionary Note About Forward-Looking Statements 2 OUR MISSION This document contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the "Securities Act"), and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, that involve risks and uncertainties. All statements other than statements of historical fact are forward-looking statements, inclu ...

Core Insights - Affirm's revenue forecast for the current quarter is below analysts' estimates, leading to a 10% drop in stock price during extended trading [1] - The company reported a gross merchandise volume (GMV) of $8.6 billion, exceeding the average estimate of $8.2 billion, with a year-over-year increase of 36% [1] - Revenue for the quarter rose 36% to $783 million compared to $576 million a year ago, with net income of $2.8 million, a significant improvement from a loss of $133.9 million a year earlier [2][5] Financial Performance - The revenue less transaction costs (RLTC) margin was reported at 4.1%, slightly above the long-term target range of 3% to 4% [2] - Adjusted operating margin was 22%, surpassing the estimate of 21.6% [2] - Earnings per share were reported at 1 cent, compared to an expected loss of 3 cents [5] Future Guidance - For the current quarter, Affirm is guiding for revenue between $815 million and $845 million, with a midpoint of $830 million, which is below the average estimate of $841 million [3] Market Context - Affirm's business is closely linked to consumer spending, particularly in sectors like electronics, apparel, and travel [4] - The U.S. economy experienced contraction in early 2025, influenced by an import surge as companies and consumers anticipated tariffs [4]

affirm) Third Fiscal Quarter 2025 We continued to lean into 0% APR monthly installments which grew 44% year over year, and constituted 13% of total GMV, the highest level in the past two years. While Shareholder Letter (a) ·1234 Pay over time Pay in full a Purchasing power ( $1,200 Plan a purchase Get as low as 0% APR on all essential electronics at Radio City -> Fellow Affirm Shareholders, In FQ3'25 we delivered another strong set of results: Gross Merchandise Volume Revenue Less Transaction Revenue Costs ...

Core Viewpoint - Market participants are concerned about the Trump administration's tariff and trade policies and their potential impact on U.S. economic growth and inflation [1] Group 1: Growth Stocks - Five growth stocks identified for May include Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. (AEM), Sony Group Corp. (SONY), Affirm Holdings Inc. (AFRM), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), and Expand Energy Corp. (EXE) [2][6] Group 2: Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. (AEM) - AEM is focused on production growth through projects like the Kittila expansion and acquisitions such as Hope Bay and the merger with Kirkland Lake Gold [7][8] - AEM's expected revenue and earnings growth rates are 20.6% and 44.4% respectively for the current year, with a Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings improving by 6.1% [8] - The average short-term price target indicates a potential increase of 16% from the last closing price of $119.13, with a maximum upside of 33.5% [9] Group 3: Sony Group Corp. (SONY) - SONY is expected to grow due to strengths in Game & Network Services, Music, and Financial Services, despite challenges in the Entertainment, Technology & Services unit [10][11] - The expected revenue and earnings growth rates for SONY are 0.7% and 14.4% respectively for the current year, with a Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings improving by 0.7% [12] - The average short-term price target suggests a potential increase of 17.2% from the last closing price of $25.23, indicating a maximum upside of 35% [12] Group 4: Affirm Holdings Inc. (AFRM) - AFRM has strong revenue growth from diverse income streams, expecting revenues between $3.13 billion and $3.19 billion in fiscal 2025 [14][15] - Key partnerships, including those with Apple Pay and Hotels.com, are crucial for AFRM's expansion [15] - The expected revenue and earnings growth rates for AFRM are 37.1% and 96.4% respectively for the current year, with a Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings improving by 60% [16] Group 5: Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) - AVGO is benefiting from strong demand for networking products and AI accelerators, with expected AI revenues to jump 44% year over year to $4.4 billion [18][19] - The acquisition of VMware has enhanced AVGO's infrastructure software solutions, with 70% of its largest customers adopting VMware Cloud Foundation [19] - AVGO's expected revenue and earnings growth rates are 21% and 35.5% respectively for the current year, with a Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings improving by 4.6% [21] Group 6: Expand Energy Corp. (EXE) - EXE has become the largest U.S. natural gas producer after merging with Chesapeake and Southwestern, with plans to ramp up production to 7,100 MMcfe/day by 2025 [24][25] - The expected revenue and earnings growth rates for EXE are over 100% each for the current year, with a Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings improving by 6.6% [26] - The average short-term price target indicates a potential increase of 13.2% from the last closing price of $108.51, suggesting a maximum upside of 56.7% [26]

Core Viewpoint - Affirm Holdings, Inc. is expected to report its third-quarter fiscal 2025 results on May 8, 2025, with a projected loss of 8 cents per share on revenues of $783.1 million, indicating significant year-over-year improvements in both earnings and revenues [1][2]. Financial Performance - The fiscal third-quarter earnings estimate has improved by 2 cents over the past month, reflecting an 81.4% year-over-year improvement [1]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues suggests a year-over-year growth of 35.9% [1]. - For the current fiscal year, the revenue estimate is pegged at $3.2 billion, implying a rise of 37.1% year over year, while the EPS consensus is a loss of 6 cents, indicating a 96.4% improvement year over year [2]. Earnings Expectations - Affirm is predicted to beat earnings estimates due to a positive Earnings ESP of +63.27% and a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy) [3]. - The company has consistently beaten consensus estimates for earnings in the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 84.1% [2]. Revenue Drivers - Merchant network revenues are expected to reach $199.5 million, indicating a 25.2% rise from the prior-year quarter [5]. - The Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) is anticipated to grow by 29.2% year-over-year, with management estimating it to be in the range of $8-$8.3 billion [6]. - Active consumers are projected to grow by 17.4% year-over-year, and transactions per active consumer are expected to rise by 16.5% [7]. Card Network and Interest Income - Card network revenues are expected to improve by 30% year-over-year, while interest income is pegged at $414.4 million, indicating a 31.3% year-over-year rise [8]. - Servicing income is estimated to reach nearly $31.3 million, reflecting a 23.6% increase from the year-ago quarter [9]. Transaction Costs - The company anticipates higher transaction costs in the range of $415-$430 million for the quarter [9]. Stock Performance - Affirm's stock has increased by 38.6% over the past month, outperforming the industry growth of 19.4% and significantly surpassing the S&P 500's increase of 12.3% [10]. Valuation - Despite the recent stock price appreciation, Affirm's valuation remains relatively cheap at 4.34X forward 12-month sales, below the industry average of 5.12X [13]. Competitive Landscape - The delay of Klarna's IPO has reduced competitive pressure in the BNPL space, benefiting Affirm as one of the few publicly traded players [18]. - Concerns regarding Walmart's relationship with Affirm are considered overblown, as Walmart contributed only 5% to Affirm's GMV [18]. Long-term Outlook - Affirm is expanding internationally and diversifying its offerings, which positions it to compete with major players like Visa and PayPal [19]. - The company is focusing on profitability by tightening underwriting standards and improving margins, which is expected to bolster investor confidence [19].

Core Viewpoint - Pomerantz LLP is investigating potential securities fraud or unlawful business practices involving Affirm Holdings, Inc. and its officers or directors [1] Group 1: Company Developments - On March 17, 2025, Klarna announced it would replace Affirm as the exclusive provider of Buy Now, Pay Later loans for Walmart, leading to a significant drop in Affirm's stock price [3] - Following the announcement, Affirm's stock price decreased by $6.38 per share, or 12.74%, closing at $43.70 per share on March 18, 2025 [3] Group 2: Legal Context - Pomerantz LLP is recognized for its expertise in corporate, securities, and antitrust class litigation, having a long history of fighting for victims of securities fraud and corporate misconduct [4]

Core Viewpoint - Affirm Holdings (AFRM) is showing potential for investment due to its recent technical performance, particularly crossing above the 200-day moving average, indicating a long-term bullish trend [1] Technical Analysis - The 200-day simple moving average is a significant tool for identifying long-term market trends, and it serves as a support or resistance level [2] - Over the past four weeks, AFRM has experienced a substantial gain of 46.4% [2] - The stock is currently rated as a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy), suggesting further upward movement is likely [2] Earnings Estimates - Positive revisions in earnings estimates bolster the bullish outlook for AFRM, with one upward revision and no downward revisions for the current fiscal year [3] - The consensus earnings estimate has also increased, indicating growing investor confidence [3] - Investors are encouraged to monitor AFRM for potential gains in the near future, given its key technical levels and favorable earnings revisions [3]

Core Viewpoint - Analysts expect Affirm Holdings (AFRM) to report a quarterly loss of $0.08 per share, reflecting an 81.4% year-over-year increase in losses, with revenues projected at $783.11 million, a 35.9% increase from the previous year [1]. Earnings Projections - There has been a 4.9% upward revision in the consensus EPS estimate over the last 30 days, indicating analysts' reassessment of their initial forecasts [2]. - Changes in earnings projections are crucial for predicting investor reactions, as empirical studies show a strong correlation between earnings estimate trends and short-term stock price movements [3]. Revenue Estimates - Analysts project 'Revenue- Merchant network' to reach $199.48 million, a 25.2% increase year-over-year [5]. - 'Revenue- Card network' is expected to be $46.40 million, reflecting a 30.1% year-over-year change [5]. - 'Revenue- Interest income' is forecasted at $414.44 million, indicating a 31.3% increase from the previous year [5]. - 'Revenue- Servicing income' is estimated at $31.25 million, suggesting a 23.5% year-over-year change [6]. - 'Revenue- Gain on sales of loans' is projected to reach $81.19 million, a significant 102.1% increase year-over-year [6]. - Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) is expected to be $8,129.51 billion, up from $6,294 billion in the previous year [6]. Consumer Metrics - The average prediction for 'Transactions per Active Consumer' is 5, consistent with the same quarter of the previous year [7]. - Analysts estimate 'Active Consumers' to be 21, an increase from 18 reported in the same quarter last year [7]. Stock Performance - Over the past month, Affirm Holdings shares have gained 46.4%, significantly outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite, which saw a change of +0.4% [8]. - Affirm Holdings holds a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy), indicating a likelihood of outperforming the overall market in the near future [8].

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street anticipates a year-over-year increase in earnings for Affirm Holdings due to higher revenues, with actual results being crucial for stock price movement [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - Affirm Holdings is expected to report a quarterly loss of $0.08 per share, reflecting an 81.4% improvement year-over-year, with revenues projected at $783.11 million, a 35.9% increase from the previous year [3]. - The earnings report is scheduled for May 8, 2025, and could lead to stock price increases if results exceed expectations [2]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 4.88% higher in the last 30 days, indicating a positive reassessment by analysts [4]. - The Zacks Earnings ESP model suggests that recent estimate revisions may provide insights into business conditions leading up to the earnings release [5][6]. Earnings Surprise Potential - Affirm Holdings has a positive Earnings ESP of +63.27%, indicating a strong likelihood of beating the consensus EPS estimate, supported by a Zacks Rank of 1 [11]. - The company has a history of exceeding consensus EPS estimates, having done so in the last four quarters, including a significant surprise of +215% in the last reported quarter [12][13]. Conclusion - Affirm Holdings is positioned as a compelling candidate for an earnings beat, but investors should consider additional factors beyond earnings results when making investment decisions [16].

Core Insights - Founder-led companies, while representing less than 5% of the S&P 500 index, contribute significantly to the market, accounting for nearly 15% of the total index's market capitalization, particularly in the technology sector [3][4]. Group 1: Founder-led Companies - Founders exhibit a unique passion and risk appetite, often leading to innovative and successful ventures that reflect their core values [2][5]. - Notable founder-led companies include NVIDIA, Amazon, Meta, Tesla, Berkshire Hathaway, and Netflix, which have redefined industries and created trillion-dollar valuations [3]. Group 2: Performance of Founder-led Companies - A Harvard Business Review study indicates that founder-led companies achieved a market-adjusted return of 12% over three years, contrasting with a negative 26% return for companies with professional CEOs [7]. - Current appealing stocks identified include Netflix, Intercontinental Exchange, and Affirm Holdings [7]. Group 3: Netflix - Netflix, co-founded by Reed Hastings, has a market capitalization of $387.7 billion and has transitioned from DVD rentals to a leading streaming service [9]. - The company is focusing on expanding its original content portfolio and has launched low-priced mobile plans in various countries to drive international growth [11]. - Netflix projects revenues between $43.5 billion and $44.5 billion for 2025, with an operating margin of 29% [13]. Group 4: Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) - ICE, founded by Jeffrey Sprecher, has a market capitalization of $95.6 billion and has reported record net revenues and earnings for 19 consecutive years [14]. - The company is well-positioned for growth due to the digitization of the U.S. residential mortgage industry and the integration of Ellie Mae into its operations [16]. Group 5: Affirm - Affirm, with a market capitalization of $16.3 billion, is a key player in the Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) segment, collaborating with over 337,000 active merchant partners [18]. - The company aims for profitability starting in Q4 of fiscal 2025 and is planning international expansion into Australia and Western Europe [19].