Core Points - Alaska Airlines' flight attendants have ratified a new three-year contract that includes significant improvements in pay, flexibility, scheduling, and benefits [1][2][3] - The agreement was supported by over 90% of the flight attendants, with a 95% approval rate [2] - The new contract is part of a broader strategy by Alaska Air Group to enhance wages and quality of life for employees, contributing to the company's long-term success [2][3] Contract Details - The new contract, effective March 2, 2025, includes increased pay, a market rate adjustment, and maintains a duty day of 10 hours and 30 minutes, which is among the shortest in the industry [3] - Improvements in the contract also cover scheduling, caps on insurance premiums, and other work rules [3] - The previous contract became amendable in December 2022, and the current contract remains effective until a new agreement is ratified [4] Company Background - Alaska Airlines is part of Alaska Air Group, which also includes Hawaiian Airlines and Horizon Air, operating hubs in multiple cities across North America and beyond [5] - The company is a member of the oneworld Alliance, with Hawaiian Airlines scheduled to join in 2026, allowing for extensive travel options for guests [5] - Alaska Air Group is publicly traded on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker "ALK" [5]

Core Viewpoint - Alaska Air Group reported strong fourth-quarter 2024 results, with both earnings and revenues exceeding expectations, indicating robust operational performance and recovery in air travel demand [2][3][4]. Financial Performance - Quarterly earnings per share (EPS) reached 97 cents, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 47 cents and showing over 100% year-over-year improvement [2]. - Operating revenues totaled $3.53 billion, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.51 billion, and reflecting a 38.4% year-over-year increase [4]. - Passenger revenues accounted for 89.9% of total revenues, amounting to $3.17 billion, with a 37% increase due to recovering air travel demand [4]. Operational Metrics - Consolidated traffic grew 35% to 19.06 billion revenue passenger miles, while capacity increased 33% to 22.74 billion average seat miles [6]. - The consolidated load factor rose by 0.9 percentage points to 83.8%, indicating effective capacity management [6]. - Revenue per available seat mile (RASM) increased by 4% to 15.54 cents, while yield rose by 1% to 16.67 cents [5]. Cost and Expenses - Total operating expenses increased by 37% to $3.46 billion, with economic fuel prices per gallon decreasing by 26% to $2.54 [6]. - Consolidated operating costs per available seat mile (excluding fuel and special items) grew by 8.6%, reflecting disciplined non-fuel cost management [7]. Liquidity and Capital Management - As of December 31, 2024, Alaska Air had $1.20 billion in cash and cash equivalents, up from $1.01 billion in the previous quarter [8]. - The company repurchased 3.9 million shares for $250 million during the fourth quarter, totaling 5.5 million shares for $312 million in 2024, and authorized a new $1 billion share repurchase plan [9]. Future Outlook - For the first quarter of 2025, Alaska Air anticipates an adjusted loss per share in the range of 50-70 cents, with available seat miles expected to increase by 2.5%-3.5% [9][10]. - EPS for 2025 is projected to remain above $5.75, with capacity expected to grow by 2%-3% year-over-year [10]. Market Sentiment - Recent estimates for Alaska Air have shown a downward trend, with a consensus estimate shift of -112.09% [11]. - Despite the downward revisions, Alaska Air holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), indicating expectations for above-average returns in the coming months [13].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of value investing and highlights specific companies, Alaska Air Group (ALK) and Delta Air Lines (DAL), as strong candidates for value investors due to their attractive financial metrics. Company Analysis: Alaska Air Group (ALK) - ALK holds a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy) and a Value grade of A, indicating strong potential for value investors [4] - The stock is currently trading with a P/E ratio of 12.03, significantly lower than the industry average of 16.51 [4] - ALK's Forward P/E has fluctuated between 6.38 and 14.88 over the past 52 weeks, with a median of 8.20 [4] - The PEG ratio for ALK is 0.66, which is lower than the industry average of 0.83, suggesting it may be undervalued considering its expected earnings growth [5] - ALK's P/B ratio is 2.19, compared to the industry's average of 5.13, indicating a favorable valuation [6] - The P/CF ratio for ALK is 10.69, which is attractive relative to the industry's average of 11.96 [7] Company Analysis: Delta Air Lines (DAL) - DAL also holds a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy) and a Value grade of A, making it another strong candidate for value investors [8] - The stock is trading at a forward earnings multiple of 8.39, well below the industry average P/E of 16.51 [8] - DAL's PEG ratio is 0.75, which is lower than the industry average of 0.83, indicating potential undervaluation [8] - Over the past 12 months, DAL's P/E has ranged from 5.44 to 9.94, with a median of 7.12 [9] - DAL's P/B ratio is 2.71, significantly lower than the industry's average of 5.13, suggesting a favorable valuation [9] Conclusion - Both Alaska Air Group and Delta Air Lines exhibit strong value characteristics, with metrics indicating they are likely undervalued in the current market [10]

Acquisition and Integration - In 2024, Alaska Air Group acquired Hawaiian Holdings, Inc., and integration efforts are underway, including plans for a single operating certificate and combined loyalty programs [15]. - The integration of Alaska and Hawaiian under a single operating certificate is underway, aiming to streamline operations and enhance safety management systems [55]. - The integration of Hawaiian Airlines is expected to incur substantial expenses, with potential liabilities and unforeseen costs that may exceed initial estimates [179]. - The integration of Hawaiian Airlines' workforce into Alaska's collective bargaining agreements may lead to delays in achieving expected synergies and could result in labor disputes [176]. - The National Mediation Board has exclusive authority to resolve representation disputes arising from the merger, which could delay integration benefits [177]. Passenger and Revenue Statistics - Alaska Airlines carried 36 million revenue passengers in 2024, an increase from 35 million in 2023 [19]. - Hawaiian Airlines carried 11 million revenue passengers in the full year of 2024, with 3 million in the post-acquisition period from September 18, 2024, to December 31, 2024 [22]. - Regional operations carried approximately 10 million revenue passengers in 2024, up from 9 million in 2023 [26]. - Passenger revenue accounted for 91% of consolidated revenue in 2024, consistent with the previous two years [17]. - Loyalty program revenue represented approximately 16% of Air Group's total revenue in 2024 [33]. Operational Performance and Costs - The average stage length for Alaska Airlines increased to 1,395 miles in 2024, compared to 1,387 miles in 2023 [20]. - The percentage of consolidated passenger capacity in the domestic market was 91% in 2024, down from 94% in 2023 [18]. - The company's CASMex (cost per available seat mile excluding fuel and special items) rose to 10.80 cents in 2024 from 10.06 cents in 2023, indicating increased operational costs [211]. - Total operating expenses increased to $11,165 million in 2024 from $10,032 million in 2023, with aircraft fuel costs slightly decreasing from $2,641 million to $2,506 million [211]. - Special items related to operating costs were $345 million in 2024, down from $443 million in 2023, reflecting improved cost management [210]. Fuel Costs and Management - Alaska's economic fuel cost per gallon for 2024 is projected to be $2.74, compared to $3.18 in 2023 and $3.40 in 2022 [59]. - Hawaiian's economic fuel cost per gallon for 2024 is projected to be $2.43, down from $2.58 in 2023 and $2.89 in 2022 [59]. - Aircraft fuel expenses for Alaska and Hawaiian totaled $2,506 million in 2024, accounting for 22% of total operating expenses, down from 26% in 2023 and 28% in 2022 [59]. - Alaska's fuel hedge program was suspended in 2023, while Hawaiian's program was paused as of September 30, 2024 [60]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a net income of $395 million, an increase from $235 million in 2023, resulting in a per share increase from $1.83 to $3.08 [210]. - Adjusted net income for 2024 was $625 million, up from $583 million in 2023, with adjusted earnings per share rising from $4.53 to $4.87 [210]. - The pretax margin improved to 4.6% in 2024 from 3.1% in 2023, while the adjusted pretax margin slightly decreased from 7.5% to 7.1% [210]. - The company reported an adjusted income before income tax of $836 million in 2024, compared to $782 million in 2023 [210]. Employee and Labor Relations - In 2024, Alaska and Horizon employees earned $325 million under incentive programs based on profitability, safety, and guest satisfaction metrics [84]. - As of December 31, 2024, Alaska employed 33,941 active employees, with wages and benefits representing approximately 46% of total non-fuel operating expenses [83]. - Alaska and Hawaiian are negotiating joint collective bargaining agreements for workgroups represented by the same unions [86]. Environmental and Safety Initiatives - Alaska and Hawaiian are working towards net zero carbon emissions by 2040, with a focus on increasing operational efficiency and investing in new technologies [78][81]. - The company is committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions, which may require significant investments in emerging technologies [130]. - Alaska Airlines is committed to carbon neutral growth starting in 2020, aligning with international agreements through the CORSIA program [113]. - The company has agreements to purchase Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) to support their emissions reduction goals [79]. Competitive Landscape - The airline industry is highly competitive, with Alaska's largest competitor being Delta Air Lines, which accounts for approximately 79% of Alaska's capacity to and from Seattle [63]. - The airline industry is highly competitive, and failure to attract and retain guests could materially adversely affect the company's results of operations [133]. - The company has a significant capacity overlap with competitors, particularly in key West Coast and Hawaiian markets, which may adversely affect its financial condition and operating results [133]. Regulatory and Risk Management - The airline industry is highly regulated, with significant oversight from the DOT, TSA, and FAA, impacting operational and financial aspects [107]. - The company is subject to extensive regulatory requirements that could increase costs and operational complexity, impacting revenue [168]. - The company has adopted an enterprise-wide risk analysis program to manage various risks, aligning them with Board oversight [122]. - The company is subject to extensive cybersecurity regulations, and the Chief Information Security Officer (CISO) leads efforts to manage cybersecurity risks [185]. Charitable Contributions - The Alaska Airlines Foundation donated over $500,000 in grants in 2024, supporting educational and career-development programs [95]. - In 2024, Air Group companies donated $15 million in cash and in-kind travel to approximately 1,300 charitable organizations [94].

Group 1: Momentum Investing Overview - Momentum investing involves following a stock's recent trend, with the aim of buying high and selling higher, capitalizing on established price movements [1] - The Zacks Momentum Style Score helps define momentum characteristics, with Alaska Air Group (ALK) currently holding a Momentum Style Score of B [2] Group 2: Alaska Air Group Performance - Alaska Air Group has a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), indicating strong potential for outperformance in the market [3] - Over the past week, ALK shares increased by 3.65%, while the Zacks Transportation - Airline industry remained flat [5] - In the last month, ALK shares rose by 10.68%, significantly outperforming the industry’s 0.87% [5] - Over the past quarter, ALK shares have increased by 38.84%, and over the last year, they have gained 97.8%, compared to the S&P 500's 1.43% and 21.95% respectively [6] Group 3: Trading Volume and Earnings Outlook - ALK's average 20-day trading volume is 2,695,075 shares, which is a useful indicator of market interest [7] - In the past two months, 6 earnings estimates for ALK have been revised upwards, raising the consensus estimate from $5.77 to $6.03 [9] - For the next fiscal year, 3 estimates have increased while 1 has decreased, indicating a positive trend in earnings outlook [9] Group 4: Conclusion - Given the strong performance metrics and positive earnings revisions, ALK is positioned as a solid momentum pick with a Momentum Score of B [11]

Core Viewpoint - Momentum investing focuses on "buying high and selling higher," contrasting with traditional strategies of "buying low and selling high" [1] Group 1: Momentum Investing Strategy - Momentum investing can be risky as stocks may lose momentum when their valuations exceed future growth potential [1] - A safer approach involves investing in bargain stocks that exhibit recent price momentum, identified through the Zacks Momentum Style Score [2] Group 2: Alaska Air Group (ALK) Analysis - Alaska Air Group (ALK) has shown a price increase of 8% over the past four weeks, indicating growing investor interest [3] - ALK has gained 37.3% over the past 12 weeks, demonstrating its ability to deliver positive returns over a longer timeframe [4] - The stock has a beta of 1.55, suggesting it moves 55% more than the market in either direction, indicating fast-paced momentum [4] - ALK has a Momentum Score of B, suggesting it is an opportune time to invest in the stock [5] - The stock has a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) due to upward revisions in earnings estimates, which attract more investors [6] - ALK is trading at a Price-to-Sales ratio of 0.79, indicating it is reasonably valued at 79 cents for each dollar of sales [6] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - ALK is highlighted as a strong candidate for investment, with potential for further price appreciation [7] - There are additional stocks that meet the criteria of the 'Fast-Paced Momentum at a Bargain' screen, suggesting more investment opportunities [7] - Zacks offers over 45 Premium Screens to help identify winning stock picks based on various investing styles [8]

Company Performance - Alaska Air Group (ALK) has returned approximately 17.3% year-to-date, outperforming the Transportation sector's average return of 5.3% [4] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ALK's full-year earnings has increased by 10.6% over the past quarter, indicating a positive trend in analyst sentiment [3] Industry Context - Alaska Air Group is part of the Transportation - Airline industry, which consists of 28 individual stocks and currently ranks 37 in the Zacks Industry Rank [6] - The Transportation - Airline industry has gained an average of 15.3% so far this year, with ALK performing better than this average [6] Sector Ranking - The Transportation group, which includes Alaska Air Group, is currently ranked 16 within the Zacks Sector Rank, which evaluates 16 different groups based on the average Zacks Rank of individual stocks [2] - Alaska Air Group holds a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy), suggesting strong potential for future performance [3]

Core Viewpoint - Alaska Air Group (ALK) has gained attention as one of the most searched stocks, with a notable performance in the airline sector, raising questions about its future stock direction [1][2]. Earnings Estimate Revisions - For the current quarter, Alaska Air is projected to report a loss of $0.37 per share, reflecting a year-over-year change of +59.8% [5]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current fiscal year is $5.93, indicating a year-over-year increase of +21.8%, with a recent change of +2.3% [5]. - For the next fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate is $7.69, representing a +29.6% change from the previous year, with a slight increase of +1.2% over the past month [6]. Revenue Growth - The consensus sales estimate for the current quarter is $3.24 billion, showing a year-over-year increase of +45.2% [9]. - The revenue estimates for the current and next fiscal years are $14.78 billion and $15.6 billion, indicating changes of +26% and +5.6%, respectively [9]. Last Reported Results and Surprise History - Alaska Air reported revenues of $3.53 billion in the last quarter, a year-over-year increase of +38.4%, with an EPS of $0.97 compared to $0.30 a year ago [10]. - The reported revenues exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.51 billion by +0.64%, and the EPS surprise was +106.38% [11]. - The company has consistently beaten consensus EPS estimates in the last four quarters and topped revenue estimates three times during this period [11]. Valuation - Alaska Air is graded A in the Zacks Value Style Score, indicating it is trading at a discount compared to its peers [15]. - The evaluation of valuation multiples such as price-to-earnings (P/E), price-to-sales (P/S), and price-to-cash flow (P/CF) is essential for determining the stock's fair value [13][14]. Bottom Line - The Zacks Rank 1 suggests that Alaska Air may outperform the broader market in the near term, making it a stock worth monitoring [16].

Core Viewpoint - Alaska Air Group (ALK) reported strong fourth-quarter 2024 results, exceeding expectations and benefiting from increased air travel demand and the acquisition of Hawaiian Holdings [1][3][4]. Financial Performance - ALK's Q4 2024 earnings per share reached 97 cents, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 47 cents, marking a year-over-year increase of over 100% [3]. - The company experienced a 38.4% year-over-year revenue growth, driven by sustained leisure demand and a rise in corporate travel [4]. - Corporate revenues increased by 8% during the quarter, with First and Premium Class revenues up 10% and 11% year-over-year, respectively [4]. Guidance and Future Outlook - ALK's guidance for Q1 2025 indicates expected unit revenue growth in high single digits and capacity growth of 2.5-3.5% [5]. - The company anticipates earnings per share of over $5.75 in 2025, supported by a capacity growth of 2-3% and positive free cash flow generation [5]. Analyst Sentiment - Following the strong Q4 results and positive EPS outlook for 2025, analysts are optimistic and revising annual earnings estimates upward [6]. Fleet and Operational Efficiency - The acquisition of Hawaiian Holdings has expanded ALK's fleet to 365 aircraft, with plans to receive 14 737 MAX and three 787 aircraft from Boeing this year [8]. - The company is focusing on fleet upgrades, with new aircraft improving fuel efficiency by up to 30% compared to older models [7]. Shareholder Initiatives - ALK resumed share buybacks in 2023, repurchasing $248 million in Q4 2024 and $312 million for the full year, reducing the outstanding share count to 123 million [9][10]. - The company has initiated a new $1 billion share repurchase program, aiming to complete it within four years [10]. Valuation - ALK stock is currently trading at a forward price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 0.65, which is below industry averages and competitor Delta Air Lines (DAL) at 0.69 [11]. - This attractive valuation, combined with strong earnings growth, positions ALK as a compelling option for value investors [12]. Investment Recommendation - Despite challenges from high labor costs, ALK is well-positioned for growth due to strong air travel demand and shareholder-friendly initiatives [13]. - The Wall Street average target price for ALK stock is $85.57, suggesting an upside of over 13% from current levels [13]. - ALK is considered a strong buy, reflecting a mix of value, growth potential, and resilience [14].

Have you been paying attention to shares of Alaska Air Group (ALK) ? Shares have been on the move with the stock up 14.5% over the past month. The stock hit a new 52-week high of $74.7 in the previous session. Alaska Air Group has gained 13.1% since the start of the year compared to the 6% move for the Zacks Transportation sector and the 14.4% return for the Zacks Transportation - Airline industry.What's Driving the Outperformance?The stock has a great record of positive earnings surprises, as it hasn't mis ...