Amprius Technologies Stock Forecast Today 12-Month Stock Price Forecast: $9.43 251.16% Upside Buy Based on 8 Analyst Ratings Current Price $2.69 High Forecast $15.00 Average Forecast $9.43 Low Forecast $6.00 Amprius Technologies Stock Forecast Details Amprius Technologies' NYSE: AMPX stock price is not immune to the volatility plaguing the broader market. However, the trend in price action reveals a market that is getting amped up on an increasingly positive news cycle and is ready to shoot higher. Critical ...

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Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported total revenue of $10.6 million for Q4 2024, a 35% increase from Q3 2024 and a 170% increase from Q4 2023 [18][20] - Full-year revenue for 2024 reached $24.2 million, representing a 167% increase from $9.1 million in 2023 [20][36] - Product revenue in Q4 2024 was $10.3 million, a 71% sequential increase and nearly 1,000% increase year-over-year from $0.9 million in Q4 2023 [33][34] - Gross margin improved to negative 21% in Q4 2024 from negative 65% in Q3 2024 and negative 98% in Q4 2023 [38] - Operating expenses for Q4 2024 were $9.5 million, a 55% increase from Q3 2024 and a 62% increase year-over-year [40] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company shipped to 98 customers in Q4 2024, with 53 being new to the Amprius platform [17] - The light electrical vehicle market contributed about 25% of Q4 revenue, with expectations for significant growth in this segment [22][116] - The company has a high-performance commercial battery portfolio with 14 different SKUs available [16][19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - 77% of Q4 revenue came from outside the United States, compared to 22% in the same period last year [18] - The light electrical vehicle market is projected to reach approximately $136 billion by 2029 [22] - The global drone market is expected to surge from $18 billion in 2023 to $213 billion by 2032 [28] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to lead in technology innovation and product performance while ensuring world-class manufacturing capability and sufficient production capacity [52] - Amprius plans to expand its customer pipeline and drive revenue growth through additional manufacturing partnerships [54] - The company is actively working on developing a global contract manufacturing network to mitigate geopolitical risks [30][64] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism for 2025, expecting to deliver new high-performance batteries and engage with more customers [54] - The company is monitoring policy challenges and potential industry headwinds due to changes in federal administration [30] - Management highlighted the importance of customer qualification processes and the potential for significant revenue growth from existing customers [124][126] Other Important Information - The company ended 2024 with $55.2 million in net cash and no debt [46] - A total of $16 million in new customer purchase orders was added to the backlog in Q4 2024, providing visibility into growth for 2025 [25][88] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you talk about the diversity of applications and customization required for customers? - Management noted three types of customers: those replacing existing batteries, those needing qualification, and those requiring certification, with confidence in converting many to purchase orders in 2025 [58][60] Question: Can you discuss your strategy for incremental contract manufacturing? - The company has successfully utilized contract manufacturing without significant capital expenditure and is exploring partnerships in Korea and Europe to diversify manufacturing locations [62][64] Question: Can you provide an update on the balance sheet activity? - The company entered a blackout period as of December 31 and has not been active in the market since then [68] Question: Can you walk us through the strategic decision to target many customers with smaller volumes? - Management emphasized that all customers have high volume potential, and engaging with more customers increases opportunities for success [72][74] Question: What is the expected revenue cadence for 2025? - Management anticipates sequential improvements in revenue throughout 2025, despite some headwinds in Q1 [135] Question: How should we think about gross margin progression for the year? - Management indicated that gross margins are expected to improve as SiCore sales contribute positively from day one [100]

Core Insights - Amprius Technologies reported a quarterly loss of $0.10 per share, which was better than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $0.11, representing an earnings surprise of 9.09% [1] - The company achieved revenues of $10.63 million for the quarter ended December 2024, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.25% and significantly up from $3.94 million a year ago [2] - Amprius shares have declined approximately 21.4% since the beginning of the year, contrasting with the S&P 500's decline of 3.5% [3] Earnings Outlook - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is -$0.11 on revenues of $7.55 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is -$0.40 on revenues of $65.89 million [7] - The estimate revisions trend for Amprius is mixed, leading to a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating expected performance in line with the market in the near future [6] Industry Context - The Technology Services industry, to which Amprius belongs, is currently ranked in the top 28% of over 250 Zacks industries, suggesting a favorable outlook compared to lower-ranked industries [8] - Empirical research indicates a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions, which can be tracked by investors [5]

Manufacturing and Production Capacity - The company has access to annual production of up to 800 MWh of SiCore batteries in pouch form and up to 1 GWh in cylindrical form through manufacturing supply agreements as of December 31, 2024[120]. - The company is in the process of developing an automated, high-volume manufacturing line for its SiMaxx silicon anode, which is crucial for scaling production[124]. - The company has not yet commenced high-volume production of its batteries, and achieving cost efficiency in manufacturing is critical for profitability[129]. - The Fremont, California facility currently operates at a kWh-scale manufacturing capacity and is being expanded to a MWh-scale facility, with plans for a GWh-scale facility in Brighton, Colorado, covering approximately 774,000 square feet[132]. - As of December 31, 2024, the company completed pre-construction planning for the new manufacturing facility, but the construction schedule will depend on funding availability and market dynamics[133]. - Significant capital expenditures will be required to scale production capacity and improve supply chain processes, with higher costs anticipated for silicon anode equipment compared to traditional graphite anodes[135]. Financial Performance and Challenges - The company reported net losses of $44.7 million and $36.8 million for the years ended December 31, 2024 and 2023, respectively, with revenues of $24.2 million and $9.1 million[187]. - The company continues to face significant operating expenses without generating sufficient revenue to cover expenditures, indicating a highly speculative investment[187]. - The company has identified material weaknesses in internal control over financial reporting, although these were remediated by December 31, 2024[196]. - Future revenues are difficult to predict, and actual results may differ from estimates, potentially affecting the company's financial condition and operations[186]. - The company incurred significant expenses as a public entity, which may adversely affect its financial condition and operational results[267]. - The accumulated deficit as of December 31, 2024, was $174.3 million, indicating ongoing financial challenges since inception[395]. - The company expects to incur additional losses as it scales operations and increases expenditures, particularly in headcount[395]. Market Competition and Risks - The battery market is highly competitive, with many competitors having significantly greater resources[116]. - The company may not succeed in developing new high-volume manufacturing lines that meet its quality and performance metrics[124]. - The company may face challenges in retaining key technical talent necessary for successful operations and growth[114]. - The company may encounter delays and technical obstacles in developing new battery products tailored to customer specifications, which could impact order fulfillment and reputation[142]. - The company faces risks related to supply chain constraints, construction delays, and potential cost overruns in establishing the new facility[132]. - The company is actively monitoring geopolitical conflicts and their potential impact on supply chains and commodity prices, which could adversely affect business operations[153][154]. Customer Dependency and Revenue Generation - Approximately 47% and 67% of the company's revenue during the years ended December 31, 2024, and 2023, respectively, came from three customers who represent 10% or more of total revenue[169]. - The company may experience adverse effects on its business if existing customers do not renew contracts or reduce purchases, as historical revenue has been significantly dependent on a few key customers[168]. - The company has not begun the evaluation process with any EV manufacturers, which may delay revenue generation and market acceptance of its products[165]. Capital and Funding - The company has entered into an At Market Issuance Sales Agreement to offer shares of common stock with an aggregate offering price of up to $100 million, with net proceeds of approximately $33.4 million and $33.8 million raised during the year ended December 31, 2024, and from the date of the Sales Agreement through December 31, 2024, respectively[172][179]. - The company may require additional capital to support business growth, and this capital might not be available on commercially reasonable terms[172]. - The company raised approximately $33.4 million from the issuance of common stock under the At Market Issuance Sales Agreement during the year ended December 31, 2024[394]. - The company has entered into a Sales Agreement allowing for the sale of up to $100 million in common stock, providing potential future funding[394]. Intellectual Property and Compliance Risks - The company relies heavily on its intellectual property portfolio, and failure to protect these rights could harm its competitive position and revenue[219]. - The company may face claims of intellectual property infringement, which could result in substantial costs and divert management's attention[221]. - The evolving landscape of privacy and data security laws may require the company to modify operations and increase costs to comply[218]. - Compliance with environmental laws and regulations is costly and failure to comply may result in significant fines and operational disruptions[230]. Operational and Regulatory Challenges - The company is subject to risks associated with government contracts, which could adversely affect its business if contracts are not maintained[205]. - The company may face limitations on utilizing net operating losses and tax credit carryforwards due to ownership changes[199]. - The unavailability or reduction of government incentives could materially affect the company's financial condition and operations[201]. - The company experienced a ransomware incident in December 2021, highlighting vulnerabilities in its information security systems[211]. - The company anticipates increased compliance burdens regarding battery product regulations, which may incur additional costs for oversight and monitoring[215]. Shareholder and Stock Information - Executive officers and directors beneficially own approximately 12.9% of the company's outstanding common stock, allowing them significant control over corporate decisions[266]. - The company does not expect to declare any dividends in the foreseeable future, requiring investors to rely on share price appreciation for potential gains[268]. - A resale registration was filed covering up to 105,680,194 shares of common stock, which could impact market price if substantial sales occur[273]. - As of December 31, 2024, shares reserved for future issuance under various plans total 38,461,496 shares, which may dilute existing shareholders' interests[276].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported total revenue of $10,600,000 for Q4 2024, a 35% increase from Q3 2024 and a 170% increase year-over-year from Q4 2023 [12][22][26] - Full-year revenue for 2024 reached $24,200,000, representing a 167% increase from $9,100,000 in 2023 [13][25] - Gross margin improved to negative 21% in Q4 2024 from negative 65% in Q3 2024 and negative 98% in Q4 2023 [26][29] - The net loss for Q4 2024 was $11,400,000, compared to $10,900,000 in Q3 2024 and $9,700,000 in Q4 2023 [29][30] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Product revenue in Q4 2024 was $10,300,000, a 71% sequential increase and nearly a 1000% increase year-over-year [23][25] - Development services and grant revenue totaled $300,000 in Q4 2024, down from $1,800,000 in Q3 2024 and $3,000,000 year-over-year [23][24] - The company shipped to 98 customers in Q4 2024, with 53 being new to the platform [12][25] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - 77% of Q4 revenue came from outside the United States, compared to 22% in the same period last year [12][26] - The light electrical vehicle market is projected to reach approximately $136 billion by 2029, indicating significant growth potential [15] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to lead in technology innovation, ensure world-class manufacturing capability, and grow its customer pipeline to drive revenue growth [36][37] - Plans to expand the global contract manufacturing network to mitigate geopolitical risks and enhance supply chain resilience [20][46][88] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving growth throughout 2025, supported by a strong customer pipeline and ongoing projects [36][37] - The company is monitoring policy changes and potential industry headwinds due to geopolitical factors, taking actions to mitigate risks [20][21] Other Important Information - The company has over 1.8 gigawatt-hour cell manufacturing capacity and is well-equipped to deliver various battery cell types [17] - The company expects to spend $1,000,000 on supporting equipment in 2025, in addition to normal operating capital requirements [34] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you talk about the diversity of applications and customization required for customers? - The company has 235 customers, with three types: quick replacements, those needing redesigns, and those requiring product certification, with confidence in converting many to purchase orders in 2025 [39][42][43] Question: Can you discuss your strategy for managing contract manufacturing in light of geopolitical dynamics? - The company has successfully utilized contract manufacturing without significant capital expenditure, with facilities currently in China and plans for partnerships in Korea and Europe [44][46][47] Question: Can you provide an update on the balance sheet and cash activity? - The company entered a traditional blackout period as of December 31, limiting market activity [48][49] Question: What is the strategic decision behind targeting many customers with smaller volumes? - The company engages with customers that have high volume potential, focusing on a large customer base to increase opportunities for success [54][56] Question: How do you see gross margin progression for the year? - The company expects positive movement in gross margin driven by the Sycor product line, which is gross margin positive from day one [78][80] Question: How will existing customers contribute to revenue compared to new customers? - Existing customers are expected to contribute more revenue as they progress through the qualification process, while new customer growth will be more selective [99][102]

Financial Reporting - Amprius Technologies, Inc. reported preliminary financial information for Q4 and full year 2024 on March 4, 2025[6]. - The press release detailing financial results is attached as Exhibit 99.1[9]. Company Classification - The company is classified as an emerging growth company under the Securities Act of 1933[5].

Company Overview - Amprius Technologies (AMPX) is expected to report flat earnings of $0.11 per share for the quarter ended December 2024, with revenues projected at $10.5 million, reflecting a significant increase of 166.5% year-over-year [1][3]. Earnings Expectations - The upcoming earnings report is anticipated to be released on March 20, and the stock may experience upward movement if the actual results exceed expectations [2]. - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 4.55% higher in the last 30 days, indicating a more optimistic outlook from analysts [4]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Most Accurate Estimate for Amprius is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in a positive Earnings ESP of +1.23%, suggesting a likelihood of beating the consensus EPS estimate [10][11]. - The company holds a Zacks Rank of 3, which indicates a hold rating, but combined with the positive Earnings ESP, it suggests a potential earnings beat [11]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Amprius was expected to post a loss of $0.11 per share but actually reported a loss of $0.10, resulting in a positive surprise of +9.09% [12]. - Over the past four quarters, Amprius has surpassed consensus EPS estimates two times [13]. Industry Context - In the Zacks Technology Services industry, GDS Holdings is expected to report a loss of $0.27 per share for the same quarter, with revenues projected at $430.7 million, up 19.6% year-over-year [17]. - GDS Holdings has seen a significant revision in its EPS estimate, with a 37.5% increase over the last 30 days, leading to an Earnings ESP of 18.52%, suggesting a likely earnings beat [18].

Core Insights - Amprius Technologies (NYSE: AMPX) is expected to experience significant revenue growth over the next decade due to its innovative silicon battery technology [1] Company Overview - The company has developed a competitive product platform known as SiCore, which positions it well in the market [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is a bullish stance on Amprius Technologies, driven by its leadership in the silicon battery market and advanced silicon nanowire anode technology [1] - The share price of Amprius Technologies has increased significantly since the previous article dated July 31, 2024 [1] - The analyst specializes in technology, innovation, and sustainability investment, utilizing a "First Principles" approach to identify overlooked investment opportunities [1] Group 2 - The analyst has a strong background in investment, private equity, and venture capital, with a proven track record of delivering strong returns [1] - Articles focus on emerging technologies, sustainable investing, and the intersection of innovation and finance [1] - The analyst expresses a passion for sharing insights and learning from fellow investors to drive positive change [1]