田代表示，日中对彼此的需求并非对等，日本对中国依赖度更高。中国经济体量已是日本的近5倍。如 果两国贸易、投资往来完全中断，中国固然会受到困扰，但对日本而言，绝不止于损失层面，而是"事 关生死"的大问题。 田代认为，首当其冲的便是日本旅游业、零售业和影视产业。旅游业和零售业是日本重要的"就业蓄水 池"，尤其是人口过疏化地区高度依赖旅游业带来的经济利益与就业机会。 他表示，中国游客不仅是日本旅游业最大客源，其消费力也很强。根据日本国土交通省观光厅公布的数 据，今年前三季度中国内地游客和香港游客对日本入境消费总额的贡献约占30%。"中国游客数量锐 减，日本零售业和旅游业都将蒙受巨大损失。更重要的是，如果失去中国游客，日本地方经济也将遭受 沉重打击。" "影视产业方面，未来日本电视剧行业也可能受到冲击。"田代说，"如今日本电视台在制作高成本连续 剧时，都将在中国市场销售作为盈利的前提。如果电视剧对华出口受到影响，损失将是巨大的。" 专访｜高市早苗错误言论"将给日本经济带来根本性打击" ——访日本无限合同会社首席经济学家田代秀敏 新华社记者刘春燕 日本无限合同会社首席经济学家田代秀敏日前接受新华社记者专访时表示，日本首 ...

每经记者｜张钟尹 每经编辑｜陈旭 随着本周新冠肺炎疫情在全球迅速蔓延，当中国疫情防控出现好转势头的同时，全球防控形势却出现恶化的局面——2月28日，世界卫生组织（WHO）宣 布，将新冠肺炎疫情的全球风险级别从"高风险"提高至"非常高"。 在新冠肺炎疫情比较严重的国家中，我们的东邻韩国和日本格外引人关注。 根据2月29日下午的最新统计，韩国24小时内新增感染新冠肺炎病例813例，累计报告确诊3150例，死亡17例；而日本境内共有945人确诊感染新冠肺炎，死 亡11例。 受疫情拖累，韩国不少巨头企业被迫停产，其中包括三星电子和现代汽车这样的巨头。 在日韩疫情出现扩散的情况下，双边贸易受到的冲击也引发市场关注。这对中韩、中日之间的进出口将产生怎样的影响？中国在电子、机械设备等产业领域 对日韩产品依赖度较高，来自日、韩的供应会不会出现风险？相关的国产行业又该如何加以应对？ 韩国累计确诊超过3000例 此前，中国的新冠肺炎疫情处于暴发期，来自中国的供应出现部分中断的情况，对日、韩不少企业造成一定的影响。而现在疫情在本国出现恶化，这又给 日、韩企业带来了哪些经营风险？ 最近一周，韩国新冠肺炎新增病例持续攀升。截至2月29 ...

Core Points - The U.S. has added copper and silver to its list of critical minerals essential for the economy and national security, expanding the list to 60 minerals from 50 in 2022 [1] - The updated list includes other notable minerals such as uranium, metallurgical coal, potash, rhenium, silicon, and lead [1] - The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) developed an economic model to assess the potential impacts of disruptions in mineral trade, covering 84 minerals and over 1,200 scenarios [1] Group 1: Copper - Copper is recognized for its strategic importance due to its extensive applications in transportation, defense, and power network construction, especially with rising electricity demand from data centers and AI [3] - The U.S. imports nearly half of its copper consumption, primarily from Chile, Peru, and Canada, while most global copper refining capacity is concentrated in China [3] - The resource sector has been advocating for the inclusion of copper in the critical minerals list to secure federal funding and streamline government approval processes [3] Group 2: Silver - The inclusion of silver has raised concerns among precious metal traders and manufacturers reliant on the material, as the U.S. heavily depends on imports to meet domestic silver demand [4] - Any tariffs on silver could severely impact the metal market, given its widespread industrial applications in electronics, solar panels, and medical devices [4] - The USGS indicated that silver was added to address potential supply disruptions from Mexico, categorizing critical minerals by risk levels for the first time [4]

Core Viewpoint - Qiangyi Semiconductor (Suzhou) Co., Ltd. is set to undergo its IPO review on November 12, 2025, aiming to raise 1.5 billion yuan, but faces risks from high customer concentration and reliance on foreign suppliers [1][4]. Financial Performance - Qiangyi's revenue has shown rapid growth, with figures of 254 million yuan, 354 million yuan, and 641 million yuan for 2022, 2023, and 2024 respectively, while net profit surged from 15.62 million yuan to 233 million yuan [2]. - For the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of 374 million yuan and net profit of 138 million yuan, with projected full-year revenue of 950 million to 1.05 billion yuan, indicating a year-on-year growth of 48% to 64% [2]. - The gross margin has significantly improved, reaching 68.99% in the first half of 2025, well above competitors like FormFactor and Technoprobe [2][3]. Market Position - Qiangyi ranks as the ninth and sixth largest in the global semiconductor probe card industry for 2023 and 2024, respectively, being the only domestic company in the top ten [1]. Customer Concentration - The company has a high customer concentration, with sales to Company B and its affiliates accounting for over 82% of total sales in the first half of 2025, raising concerns about potential impacts on performance if relationships change [4]. Supplier Risks - Qiangyi's procurement from its top five suppliers increased from 49% to 64%, with critical materials sourced primarily from foreign suppliers, posing a risk if international trade conditions change [5][6]. Production Capacity - The utilization rates for various probe card products have shown fluctuations, with 2D MEMS probe cards at 100.89% and 101.13% in previous years, but declining to 85.34% [6]. - The company plans to invest 1.04 billion yuan in fixed assets to increase production capacity significantly, but faces risks if market demand does not meet expectations [6].

Core Viewpoint - The global automotive industry is facing a significant chip shortage exacerbated by the Dutch government's intervention in the semiconductor company Nexperia, which has led to supply chain disruptions and production halts among major automakers [1][2][3]. Group 1: Supply Chain Disruptions - The Dutch government has taken control of Nexperia, a subsidiary of the Chinese company Wingtech, citing national security concerns, which has unexpectedly triggered a global chip shortage for automotive manufacturers [2][4]. - Nexperia's actions, including halting supplies, have been criticized for disregarding customer interests and violating contractual agreements, leading to a loss of trust among clients [2][5]. - Major automakers like Volkswagen and Honda have reported production issues, with Volkswagen experiencing its first quarterly loss in five years and Honda halting production at key facilities due to chip shortages [3][7]. Group 2: Impact on Automotive Manufacturers - The European Automobile Manufacturers Association has warned that if Nexperia's supply does not resume quickly, production interruptions could occur within weeks, affecting several factories [3][7]. - Automakers are facing a critical shortage of essential components, particularly electronic control units (ECUs), which are vital for vehicle functionality [7][10]. - The automotive industry is experiencing a rush to find alternative suppliers, but the transition is complicated by lengthy certification processes and the inability of smaller suppliers to meet sudden demand [9][10]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Implications - The semiconductor market is witnessing a shift in risk from predictable shortages to unpredictable political interventions, which could have long-term implications for supply chain stability [11][14]. - The current crisis may accelerate the push for domestic semiconductor production and self-sufficiency in the automotive sector, as companies seek to mitigate risks associated with geopolitical tensions [14]. - The automotive industry is likely to face increased costs and longer lead times for components as they transition to alternative suppliers, which may not be able to match Nexperia's scale and pricing [10][14].

Core Points - The Dutch government has taken control of the Chinese company Nexperia, leading to a significant disruption in the global automotive supply chain due to a chip shortage [1][4] - Honda's factory in Celaya, Mexico, has halted production of the HR-V model, which has an annual output of approximately 200,000 units, due to the unavailability of chips produced by Nexperia [1][2] - The North American market is crucial for Honda, accounting for about 40% of its global sales, with the Celaya factory serving as a key export hub [2] Group 1 - The Dutch government invoked a rarely used law for national security reasons to restrict Nexperia from making any adjustments related to assets, intellectual property, or personnel for one year starting September 30 [4] - Following the Dutch government's intervention, Nexperia's factory in Dongguan, China, has limited shipments and plans to implement a reduced work schedule [5] - The actions of the Dutch government have led to significant job insecurity in Nexperia's operations across the Netherlands, Germany, and the UK, causing many industrial operations to pause [5][6] Group 2 - The European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA) has reported that the chip supply shortage from Nexperia is causing production disruptions among European automakers, with assembly lines potentially halting within days [5] - A report indicated that 86% of major European companies in various industries rely on chips from Nexperia's production base in China, highlighting the potential risks to the European industrial sector [5] - Nexperia's spokesperson noted that if the Chinese and European operations are severed, the company would lose a significant portion of its backend capacity, which cannot be easily replaced by other regions [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the tensions between Dutch authorities and Wentech Technology regarding the control of Nexperia, highlighting the potential risks to the European semiconductor supply chain and the broader automotive industry due to the ongoing dispute [1][3][4]. Group 1: Company Statements and Reactions - Wentech Technology criticized the Dutch government's actions as interference and demanded the return of control over Nexperia, stating that this is essential for restoring the Netherlands' damaged reputation and alleviating international tensions [1]. - A spokesperson for Wentech Technology indicated that the Dutch government's intention seems to be to allow a new local company to take over Nexperia, but any such attempt is likely to fail as customers would not follow the new entity [3]. - The spokesperson emphasized that if the Chinese and European operations of Nexperia are severed, the company would lose a significant portion of its backend capacity, which cannot be replaced by European or other regions in the foreseeable future [3]. Group 2: Industry Impact - The disruption caused by the Dutch government's actions has led to a "major earthquake" in the global automotive supply chain, affecting major automotive companies in the US, Europe, and Japan [3]. - Volvo and Volkswagen have warned that if the deadlock regarding Nexperia is not resolved, European factories may face temporary closures, while Bosch indicated that its German production lines could also be impacted, potentially leading to employee layoffs [3]. - A report cited by German media revealed that 86% of the analyzed 107 leading European companies across seven industries source chips from Nexperia's production base in China, indicating that a significant portion of European industry faces potential risks [4]. Group 3: Diplomatic Efforts - The situation has prompted the Dutch government to recognize the seriousness of the issue, leading to discussions with Chinese authorities and consultations with multiple EU member states [4]. - The European Union is actively negotiating with China regarding the Nexperia situation, seeking a "quick and pragmatic solution" [4]. - Jim Farley, CEO of Ford Motor Company, disclosed that the US government is also intervening to mediate the situation [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing tensions between Dutch authorities and Chinese company Wintech Technology regarding the control of Nexperia, a semiconductor company, highlighting the potential risks to the European automotive supply chain and the broader implications for the semiconductor industry [2][4][5]. Group 1: Company and Industry Impact - Wintech Technology criticized the Dutch government's actions, claiming that the return of control is essential for restoring the Netherlands' reputation and economic security in Europe [2]. - The spokesperson for Wintech stated that any attempt by a new Dutch company to take over Nexperia would likely fail, as customers would not follow the new entity [4]. - Nexperia's operations are heavily reliant on Chinese facilities, with approximately 80% of its final products being completed in China, indicating a significant dependency on the Chinese market for its backend production capacity [4]. Group 2: Supply Chain Risks - The situation has caused a "major earthquake" in the global automotive supply chain, affecting major automotive companies in the US, Europe, and Japan, with warnings from Volvo and Volkswagen about potential temporary factory closures in Europe if the deadlock continues [4]. - A report indicated that 86% of 107 leading European companies across various industries source chips from Nexperia's production bases in China, suggesting that a significant portion of European industry faces potential risks due to this dependency [5]. - The Dutch government has recognized the seriousness of the situation and is engaging in discussions with Chinese authorities and other EU member states to seek a practical resolution [5].

Core Viewpoint - The EU hopes that China will not escalate the Anshi issue and will ease export controls on rare earths, indicating a complex interplay of trade, security, and geopolitical factors in the current situation [1][9]. Group 1: Anshi Incident - The Anshi issue is a chain reaction within the trade ecosystem, involving more than just stock certificates and press releases [1]. - Nexperia, originally a Dutch brand, is now controlled by Wingtech, with production in China, exemplifying the globalized model of "headquarters in the West, production in the East" [3]. - The U.S. has placed Wingtech on the entity list, prompting the Netherlands to intervene through legal and governmental means, reflecting economic security concerns masked as legal actions [3][11]. Group 2: Impact on European Automotive Industry - China's reciprocal response includes restrictions on certain exports from Anshi's China operations, disrupting European orders and causing anxiety among automotive manufacturers [5]. - The swift market reaction saw Wingtech's stock plummet, and automotive associations in Germany and France began calculating production losses due to inventory shortages [5]. - The intertwined nature of the Anshi incident and China's rare earth export controls poses a significant threat to Europe's electric vehicle and wind power industries [7]. Group 3: Rare Earth Export Controls - China has expanded its rare earth export controls, requiring registration and purpose explanations for exports of gallium, germanium, neodymium, and praseodymium, leading to a backlog of approvals [7]. - The EU's reliance on China for purification and separation technologies complicates the situation, making it difficult to quickly replace existing capacities even with new mines [9][11]. Group 4: EU's Internal Conflicts - The EU faces a dilemma between maintaining market rules and investment freedom while dealing with the reality of supply chain vulnerabilities [13]. - The Anshi and rare earth issues should not be viewed in isolation; they represent a broader friction between interests, rules, technology, security, law, and politics between China and Europe [13]. Group 5: Long-term Implications - The situation reveals the necessity for diversified supply chains, though complete replacement of existing capabilities is challenging in the short term [17]. - The ideal response for the EU would involve dialogue and technological cooperation to mitigate risks, but political realities complicate these discussions [17][20]. - The ongoing geopolitical tensions suggest that both sides will continue to engage in a protracted negotiation process, balancing face-saving measures and industrial security [22].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the indirect risks posed by trade disruptions, which are often difficult to quantify and may not immediately reflect in financial statements. Understanding supply chain data is crucial for assessing the financial impact of ongoing trade tensions [2][4]. Group 1: Trade Risks and Economic Exposure - Investors should look beyond a company's registered location to understand its broader economic risk exposure, as revenue sources may span multiple regions, each facing different risks, especially amid escalating trade tensions [4]. - The U.S. is considering higher tariffs on European goods, exacerbating trade disputes with the EU, which adds to the uncertainty and challenges for long-term planning [4]. - FactSet's GeoRev, Supply Chain Relationships, and RBICS data provide critical insights into a company's true business landscape, helping investors identify potential vulnerabilities from trade disruptions [4][5]. Group 2: Supply Chain Vulnerabilities - Tools like GeoRev and supply chain data help investors assess a company's risk exposure in key regions, supply chain fragility, and industry risks, enabling more accurate risk assessments and strategic positioning [5]. - Companies that appear unaffected by trade tensions may still have indirect vulnerabilities due to reliance on overseas suppliers or indirect connections to affected regions [5][6]. Group 3: Case Study - Vuzix Corp - Vuzix, a U.S. AR glasses manufacturer, has a low direct revenue exposure to China (2.1%), yet its multi-tier supply chain remains susceptible to U.S. tariff tensions [6][19]. - Vuzix's revenue breakdown shows that the U.S. accounts for 56.1% of total revenue, with significant contributions from France (7.5%) and Canada (6.9%) [7]. - The analysis of Vuzix's supply chain reveals potential indirect risks through its suppliers and customers, emphasizing the need for a comprehensive understanding of the entire ecosystem [13][21]. Group 4: Broader Implications for Companies - Companies like Texas Instruments, which supply critical components to Vuzix, face significant revenue exposure to China (18.8%) and the EU (16.5%), highlighting the complexities of coordinating manufacturing across regions amid tariff uncertainties [19][20]. - Sony, despite being based in Japan, has a substantial U.S. customer base (28.8% of revenue) and is affected by U.S. tariff policies, necessitating adjustments in logistics and pricing strategies [21][24]. - The article identifies companies with over 50% revenue exposure to the U.S. that rely heavily on Chinese suppliers, underscoring the importance of recognizing indirect risks in global supply chains [28][29].