Core Insights - AutoNation, Inc. reported second quarter 2025 revenue of $7.0 billion, an 8% increase year-over-year, while diluted EPS decreased to $2.26 from $3.20, and adjusted EPS rose to $5.46 from $3.99 [1][7][10] Financial Performance - Revenue for the second quarter of 2025 was $6,974.4 million, up from $6,480.4 million in the same period last year, reflecting an 8% increase [3][21] - Gross profit increased by 10% to $1,275.4 million from $1,163.1 million [3][21] - Operating income decreased by 21% to $217.6 million from $275.0 million [3][21] - Net income fell by 34% to $86.4 million compared to $130.2 million a year ago [3][21] - Adjusted operating income for the quarter was $369.3 million, a 16% increase from $318.5 million [4] - Adjusted net income rose by 29% to $209.2 million from $162.5 million [4] Segment Performance - Same-store revenue increased by 8% to $6.9 billion, driven by higher new vehicle unit sales and increased average selling prices [8][12] - New vehicle revenue was $3.4 billion, up 9%, while used vehicle revenue increased by 4% to $2.0 billion [8] - After-sales revenue grew by 12% to $1.2 billion, and customer financial services revenue rose by 13% to $363 million [8] - Same-store gross profit increased by 10% to $1.3 billion [8] Capital Allocation and Liquidity - Cash used in operating activities for the first half of 2025 was $230 million, with auto loans receivable net increasing by $695 million [5] - AutoNation repurchased 1.5 million shares for $254 million, with over $607 million remaining under its repurchase authorization [6] - As of June 30, 2025, AutoNation had $1.8 billion in liquidity, including $63 million in cash [9] Market Position and Strategy - The company experienced double-digit growth in customer financial services and after-sales, alongside improved new vehicle market share [2] - The successful completion of a $700 million asset-backed securitization for its auto loan portfolio at a fixed interest rate of 4.90% [9]

Core Insights - AutoNation (AN) is expected to report quarterly earnings of $4.70 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 17.8% [1] - Revenues are anticipated to reach $6.8 billion, which is a 4.9% increase from the same quarter last year [1] - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised upward by 1.6% in the past 30 days, indicating analysts' reassessment of their initial estimates [1][2] Revenue Estimates - Analysts predict 'Revenue- Parts and service' will reach $1.19 billion, marking a 6.4% increase from the prior-year quarter [3] - The 'Revenue- Finance and insurance net' is estimated at $337.81 million, reflecting a 4.3% increase from the year-ago quarter [4] - 'Revenue- Used Vehicle' is expected to be $1.92 billion, indicating a 0.7% increase from the prior-year quarter [4] - 'Revenue- New Vehicle' is projected to reach $3.31 billion, which is a 5.9% increase from the year-ago quarter [4] Sales and Profit Metrics - Total 'Retail vehicle unit sales' are expected to be 130,325, compared to 126,772 in the previous year [5] - 'Revenue per vehicle retailed - New' is forecasted to be $51,872.62, up from $50,965.00 in the same quarter last year [5] - 'Revenue per vehicle retailed - Used' is estimated at $27,368.63, compared to $26,617.00 in the same quarter last year [6] - 'Gross profit per vehicle retailed - Finance and insurance' is expected to reach $2,598.93, up from $2,556.00 in the previous year [6] Used and New Vehicle Sales - 'Retail vehicle unit sales - Used' are projected at 66,701, compared to 65,504 in the same quarter last year [7] - 'Retail vehicle unit sales - New' is estimated at 63,624, up from 61,268 in the previous year [7] - 'Gross profit per vehicle retailed - Used' is expected to be $1,612.39, slightly down from $1,638.00 in the previous year [7] - 'Gross profit per vehicle retailed - New' is projected to be $2,892.10, down from $3,108.00 in the same quarter last year [8] Market Performance - AutoNation shares have changed by +0.3% in the past month, while the Zacks S&P 500 composite has moved +5.9% [8]

Core Viewpoint - AutoNation (AN) is positioned well to potentially beat earnings estimates in its upcoming quarterly report, continuing a trend of positive earnings surprises [1][5]. Earnings Performance - For the most recent quarter, AutoNation reported earnings of $4.35 per share, missing the expected $4.68 per share by 7.59%. In the previous quarter, it exceeded expectations by reporting $4.97 per share against a consensus estimate of $4.26 per share, resulting in a surprise of 16.67% [2]. Earnings Estimates and Predictions - Recent estimates for AutoNation have been increasing, with a positive Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) of +0.83%, indicating analysts' growing bullish sentiment on the company's near-term earnings potential [5][8]. - The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) suggests a high likelihood of another earnings beat, with historical data showing that stocks with this combination beat estimates nearly 70% of the time [6][8]. Earnings ESP Explanation - The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, with the Most Accurate Estimate reflecting the latest analyst revisions, which may provide a more accurate prediction of earnings [7].

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street anticipates a year-over-year increase in AutoNation's earnings driven by higher revenues, with the actual results being crucial for near-term stock price movements [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - AutoNation is expected to report quarterly earnings of $4.67 per share, reflecting a +17% year-over-year change, and revenues are projected to be $6.79 billion, up 4.8% from the previous year [3]. - The earnings report is scheduled for July 25, and better-than-expected results could lead to a stock price increase, while a miss may result in a decline [2]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 1.3% higher in the last 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts [4]. - However, the Most Accurate Estimate for AutoNation is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of -1.21%, suggesting a bearish outlook from analysts [12]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model indicates that a positive or negative reading can predict deviations from consensus estimates, but its predictive power is significant mainly for positive readings [9][10]. - AutoNation's current Zacks Rank is 3, which complicates the prediction of an earnings beat [12]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, AutoNation exceeded expectations with earnings of $4.68 per share against an expected $4.35, resulting in a surprise of +7.59% [13]. - Over the past four quarters, AutoNation has beaten consensus EPS estimates two times [14]. Industry Comparison - Sonic Automotive, another player in the automotive retail industry, is expected to post earnings of $1.61 per share, indicating a +9.5% year-over-year change, with revenues projected at $3.65 billion, up 5.7% [18]. - Sonic Automotive's consensus EPS estimate has been revised 0.3% higher, but it also has a negative Earnings ESP of -0.16%, making predictions of an earnings beat challenging [19][20].

Industry Overview - The Zacks Auto Retail and Wholesale industry is experiencing significant changes due to evolving consumer habits, policy shifts, and strategic actions by key players [1][3] - The industry is consumer-driven, with performance closely tied to economic conditions, where increased disposable income typically leads to higher vehicle purchases [3] - The COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated the industry's shift towards online tools and e-commerce, a trend expected to continue [3] Factors Influencing Industry Dynamics - Car affordability has seen a modest improvement due to rising consumer incomes and dealer incentives, but tariffs on imported vehicles continue to pose challenges, potentially adding up to $5,700 to the cost of new cars [4] - The EV market is in a transitional phase, with first-half 2025 U.S. EV sales reaching 607,089 units, a 1.5% year-over-year increase, but a decline in demand is anticipated in the fourth quarter without government subsidies [5] - Auto retailers are making strategic acquisitions to enhance market share and diversify offerings, while also investing in digital platforms to meet changing customer expectations [2][6][7] Market Performance - The Zacks Auto Retail & Wholesale industry ranks 91, placing it in the top 37% of 245 Zacks industries, indicating positive near-term prospects [8][9] - Over the past year, the industry has outperformed the S&P 500, returning 16.3% compared to the S&P 500's 12.6% growth [10] Current Valuation - The industry is currently trading at an EV/EBITDA ratio of 8.95X, significantly lower than the S&P 500's 17.64X and the sector's 20.66X [13] Company Highlights - **Penske Automotive**: Completed acquisitions in 2024 representing nearly $2.1 billion in annualized revenues, with a strong order backlog and a low long-term debt-to-capitalization ratio of 15.5% [17][18] - **Lithia Motors**: Expanded its footprint through acquisitions, adding $3.8 billion in 2023 and $5.9 billion in 2024 in annualized revenues, with a focus on digital platforms to enhance customer experience [22][23] - **AutoNation**: Continues to grow through strategic acquisitions and digital transformation, with a recent purchase expected to add $200 million in annual revenues [25][26] - **Group 1 Automotive**: Achieved significant revenue growth through acquisitions, adding over $1 billion in 2023 and $3.9 billion in 2024, while focusing on an omnichannel strategy [31][32]

Core Insights - AutoNation, Inc. will release its financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2025, on July 25, 2025, before market opens [1] - A conference call and audio webcast will be held on the same day at 9:00 a.m. Eastern Time to discuss the results [1] Company Overview - AutoNation is one of the largest automotive retailers in the United States, providing a wide range of new and used vehicles, customer financing, parts, and maintenance services [3] - The company has raised over $40 million for cancer-related causes through its initiative DRV PNK, showcasing its commitment to community support [3]

Core Insights - Used car prices are experiencing significant increases, with the Manheim Index rising 1.6% in June and a 6.3% year-over-year surge, the highest since August 2022 [1] - The increase in used car prices is attributed to Trump-era auto tariffs and a tightening supply of new vehicles, creating a demand for pre-owned cars [2][5] Market Dynamics - The uncertainty caused by proposed 25% tariffs on imported vehicles has led automakers to reduce production plans, resulting in a scarcity of new vehicles and increased demand for used cars [2] - Used vehicle inventory has dropped to a 43-day supply, significantly below normal levels, giving dealers increased pricing power and higher per-unit profits [3] Company Performance - Carvana and AutoNation are well-positioned to capitalize on the current market conditions due to their investments in online platforms and omnichannel sales strategies [4] - Carvana shares have increased over 74% year-to-date, while AutoNation has seen a nearly 26% rally, indicating strong investor interest and favorable margins [5] Investment Opportunities - The current pricing environment and expanding margins suggest that dealership stocks like Carvana and AutoNation may continue to perform well, providing a resilient investment opportunity amid tariff-related uncertainties in the new car market [5]

Market Overview - The first half of 2025 experienced increased volatility and uncertainty due to President Trump's tariffs and a faster-than-expected cooling of inflation, leading to market recovery [1] - Recent months have shown favorable market conditions with easing trade tensions and a reduction in the Middle East crisis [1] Stock Performance and Recommendations - Optimism regarding artificial intelligence is expected to continue supporting stock prices, particularly in technology sectors [2] - Cooling inflation raises expectations for potential rate cuts starting in September 2025, contributing to a positive market outlook [2] - Stocks such as Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL), BGSF, ArcBest Corporation (ARCB), Cardinal Health (CAH), and AutoNation (AN) are recommended for monitoring as the second half of 2025 begins [2][6] Screening Strategy - A screening strategy has been developed to identify stocks based on improving broker recommendations and upward revisions in earnings estimates over the past four weeks [3] - The price/sales ratio is included as a valuation metric, focusing on companies with strong top-line performance [3] Screening Criteria - The top 75 companies with net upgrades in broker ratings over the last four weeks are identified [4] - The top 10 stocks with the highest percentage change in earnings estimates for the upcoming quarter are highlighted [4] - Companies in the bottom 10% of price-to-sales ratios are included for better valuation [4] Company Highlights - Cracker Barrel is focusing on menu innovation and pricing strategies to drive growth, introducing new offerings to attract customers [5] - BGSF has seen a 25% increase in shares over the past month and has a Zacks Rank 1, with earnings estimates rising over 300% in the last 60 days [7] - ArcBest is improving productivity and service quality, expecting a 52.1% increase in earnings per share for 2026 compared to 2025 [8] - Cardinal Health is undergoing strategic improvements to revitalize its business model, with its Medical segment expected to drive growth [9][10] - AutoNation's diversified product portfolio and strategic acquisitions support its market position, currently holding a Zacks Rank 3 [11]

Core Viewpoint - AutoNation's stock has reached a new 52-week high, indicating that the market may have fully recognized its value, yet a deeper analysis reveals that the company remains fundamentally undervalued due to its strong operational performance and strategic focus [1][2][3]. Financial Metrics - AutoNation's trailing price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is approximately 11.89, significantly lower than the S&P 500 average and about half of similar companies in the consumer cyclical sector, suggesting undervaluation [4]. - The price-to-sales ratio (P/S) stands at a low 0.28, indicating that the company's market capitalization is a small fraction of its annual revenue, which is often a sign of undervaluation [4]. Growth Potential - Wall Street analysts have a consensus rating of Moderate Buy for AutoNation, with Bank of America raising its price target to $255, indicating potential upside [4]. - The After-Sales division generated a record $568 million in gross profit in Q1 2025, providing a stable, high-margin revenue stream less sensitive to economic cycles [7]. Strategic Operations - AutoNation is expanding its finance company, AutoNation Finance (ANF), which completed its first $700 million asset-backed securitization, enhancing its profit per unit metric [8][9]. - The company repurchased $225 million of its stock in Q1 2025, reflecting management's confidence in the stock's value and reducing the number of shares outstanding, which increases earnings per share (EPS) [10][11]. Market Positioning - AutoNation's strategy focuses on high-margin operations and profitability in the used car segment, with gross profit per used vehicle increasing by 13.1% despite a slight 2% dip in same-store used vehicle sales volume [13][14]. - The company is actively acquiring dealerships, such as a $70 million acquisition in Colorado, to expand its revenue and market presence [12]. Investment Narrative - AutoNation presents a compelling case for value-oriented investors, showcasing a robust business model that generates stable profits beyond just car sales [15][16].

Group 1 - Zacks Premium offers various tools for investors, including daily updates on Zacks Rank and Industry Rank, access to the Zacks 1 Rank List, Equity Research reports, and Premium stock screens to enhance investment confidence [1][2] - The Zacks Style Scores rate stocks based on value, growth, and momentum characteristics, providing complementary indicators to the Zacks Rank [2][3] Group 2 - The Value Score focuses on identifying undervalued stocks using ratios like P/E, PEG, Price/Sales, and Price/Cash Flow [3] - The Growth Score emphasizes a company's financial strength and future outlook, analyzing projected and historical earnings, sales, and cash flow [4] - The Momentum Score assesses trends in stock prices and earnings outlook, utilizing factors like one-week price change and monthly percentage change in earnings estimates [5] Group 3 - The VGM Score combines all three Style Scores, serving as an important indicator alongside the Zacks Rank to identify stocks with attractive value, growth forecasts, and promising momentum [6] - The Zacks Rank employs earnings estimate revisions to simplify the process of building a winning portfolio, with 1 (Strong Buy) stocks historically yielding an average annual return of +25.41% since 1988 [7][8] Group 4 - AutoNation, Inc. is a major automotive retailer in the U.S., providing vehicle sales, maintenance, parts, and financing services [12] - AutoNation holds a 3 (Hold) rating on the Zacks Rank, with a VGM Score of A and a Momentum Style Score of A, indicating strong performance potential [12][13] - The company's shares have increased by 8.4% over the past four weeks, with upward revisions in earnings estimates for fiscal 2025, raising the Zacks Consensus Estimate by $0.46 to $18.75 per share [13]