Core Viewpoint - AppLovin has shown a strong recovery in 2025, with shares rising approximately 7% as of May 12, following a successful Q1 earnings report and positive developments from Trump's trade deal with China [1][2]. Group 1: Q1 Earnings Performance - AppLovin's Q1 revenue growth was 40%, exceeding Wall Street's expectations by nearly 10% [2]. - The company achieved adjusted earnings per share growth of 149%, significantly higher than the forecasted 115% increase [2]. Group 2: Strategic Focus and Market Opportunities - AppLovin finalized the sale of its mobile gaming segment to Tripledot Studios, allowing it to concentrate on its advertising business, which is a key growth driver [3]. - The company's e-commerce segment is performing well, operating at a $1 billion annual run rate, with less than 0.1% market penetration indicating substantial growth potential [3][4]. Group 3: Impact of Trade Deal - Approximately 90% of AppLovin's advertising revenue is derived from mobile games, which are not directly affected by tariffs, but the trade deal is expected to lower costs for many businesses, potentially increasing their advertising budgets [6]. - The trade deal may also facilitate discussions regarding a potential merger with TikTok, which could provide AppLovin with valuable data to enhance its advertising algorithms [7][8]. Group 4: Analyst Outlook - Analysts see a near 30% upside for AppLovin's shares, driven by its growth opportunities in e-commerce, the de-escalation of trade tensions, and the speculative potential of a TikTok deal [10].

Core Insights - The Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) is a valuable tool for options traders, measuring realized volatility against expectations priced into options over the past year [2][3] - A high SVS indicates that a stock has realized greater volatility than what its options have priced in, making it a potential target for options trading [3][4] - The analysis highlights stocks with consistently high SVS scores, suggesting they are more likely to yield positive returns for options traders [4][9] Summary by Category SVS Overview - SVS is calculated using hypothetical at-the-money straddle trades held until expiration, generating around 250 data points annually [2] - The scoring system combines average straddle return (40%), percentage of positive returns (40%), and percentage of straddles that doubled (20%) into a score from 0 to 100 [3] High-Performing Stocks - Stocks like Moderna Inc (MRNA) and Mondelez International (MDLZ) have high SVS scores, indicating they have consistently provided positive returns despite recent price declines [4][9] - The table of stocks with SVS above 90 shows that several sectors, including pharmaceuticals and food producers, have performed well [5] Consistent Positive Straddles - The analysis identifies stocks with the highest percentage of positive straddles, including MDLZ and MRNA, which have shown strong performance metrics [8] - The data suggests that stocks with a history of positive straddle returns are likely to continue attracting options traders [9] Growth Stocks and Risk Appetite - Risky growth stocks like HIMS and SoundHound AI (SOUN) are highlighted as potential targets for options traders looking for high returns, despite their volatility [11] - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding risk tolerance when selecting stocks for options trading, especially in a post-earnings season environment [11]

Market Capitalization Changes - Tesla's market capitalization increased by 6.75% to $1,025.4 billion [3] - TSMC's market capitalization rose by 5.93% to $969.7 billion [3] - Tencent's market capitalization grew by 4.66% to $609.8 billion [3] - Netflix's market capitalization decreased by 2.65% to $472.3 billion [3] - Oracle's market capitalization increased by 4.58% to $440.8 billion [3] Notable Performers - Shopify saw a significant increase of 13.7% in market capitalization, reaching $136.2 billion [4] - AppLovin experienced a remarkable rise of 89% to $1.177 billion [4] - AMD's market capitalization increased by 5.13% to $175.3 billion [5] - Uber's market capitalization rose by 6.39% to $184.2 billion [5] Decliners - Pinduoduo's market capitalization fell by 6.14% to $165.2 billion [4] - Xiaomi's market capitalization decreased by 2.11% to $163.4 billion [4] - Spotify's market capitalization declined by 4.23% to $127.3 billion [4] Other Companies of Interest - Adobe's market capitalization increased by 3.3% to $168.7 billion [4] - Qualcomm's market capitalization rose by 4.78% to $167.0 billion [4] - Intel's market capitalization increased by 3.55% to $96.7 billion [5] - Airbnb's market capitalization grew by 5.64% to $828 million [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential resurgence of the bull market, highlighting opportunities in lesser-known tech stocks alongside established names like the Magnificent 7 and leading AI companies [1] Group 1: Under-the-Radar Tech Stocks - Three tech stocks, Sezzle Inc. (SEZL), Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY), and AppLovin (APP), are identified as having significant growth potential and are showing strong momentum [2][3] - These companies are characterized as high-growth innovators with robust growth forecasts and favorable stock price movements, supported by a top Zacks Rank [2] Group 2: Pagaya Technologies Ltd. - Pagaya Technologies operates at the intersection of AI and financial technology, utilizing machine learning to improve credit decision-making and underwriting in consumer lending [4] - Despite a setback following a disappointing Q1 earnings report, Pagaya has shown a strong recovery, with analysts raising earnings forecasts and achieving a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) [5] - The stock trades at a forward earnings multiple of 8.3x, with projected sales growth of 20% this year and 16% next year, alongside expected earnings growth of 112% in 2025 and 39% in 2026 [6] Group 3: Sezzle Inc. - Sezzle operates in the Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) sector, providing flexible financing options while focusing on profitability and disciplined growth [8] - The stock, despite a significant rally, remains attractively valued at 26.9x forward earnings, with projected sales growth of 62% this year and 20.8% next year, and earnings expected to rise 76% in 2025 and 30% in 2026 [9][10] - Sezzle also holds a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy), reflecting a positive earnings revision trend with significant increases in earnings estimates for 2025 and 2026 [10] Group 4: AppLovin - AppLovin provides a mobile app marketing and monetization platform powered by machine learning, aiding app developers in revenue optimization [11] - The company has experienced substantial growth, with recent upward earnings revisions of 19.2% for the current quarter and 12.5% for the full year [12] - Although trading at a premium valuation of 42.5x forward earnings, the growth outlook is strong, with projected sales increases of 24.3% in 2025 and 16.3% in 2026, and earnings expected to grow by 70.6% this year and 44.8% next year [13][16] Group 5: Investment Considerations - For investors seeking high-growth tech exposure beyond major names, Pagaya Technologies, Sezzle, and AppLovin present a compelling mix of momentum, earnings strength, and long-term potential, supported by rising analyst estimates and top Zacks Ranks [17]

Group 1 - AppLovin (APP) shares have increased by 31.4% over the past four weeks, closing at $328.54, with a mean price target of $448.30 indicating a potential upside of 36.5% [1] - The average of 20 short-term price targets ranges from a low of $200 to a high of $650, with a standard deviation of $122.50, suggesting variability in analyst estimates [2] - Analysts have shown a strong agreement in revising earnings estimates higher, with four estimates moving up in the last 30 days and no negative revisions, leading to a 14.2% increase in the Zacks Consensus Estimate [11][12] Group 2 - The Zacks Rank for APP is 1 (Strong Buy), placing it in the top 5% of over 4,000 ranked stocks based on earnings estimates, indicating strong potential for upside [13] - While price targets are often viewed as a key metric, they can mislead investors, and analysts may set overly optimistic targets due to business incentives [7][8][10] - A low standard deviation in price targets indicates a high degree of agreement among analysts regarding the stock's price movement direction, which can serve as a starting point for further research [9]

Core Insights - Five stocks have been added to the Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) List, indicating strong potential for investment Group 1: Company Performance - Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD) has seen a 34.8% increase in the Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings over the last 60 days [1] - AppLovin (APP) has experienced a 12.5% increase in the Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings over the last 60 days [2] - The ODP Corporation (ODP) has seen a 9% increase in the Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings over the last 60 days [3] - Suzano (SUZ) has experienced a 7.8% increase in the Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings over the last 60 days [3] - Ferrari (RACE) has seen a 5.3% increase in the Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings over the last 60 days [4]

Core Viewpoint - AppLovin has faced scrutiny from multiple short-seller reports but reported strong Q1 results, leading to a significant stock increase of nearly 288% over the past year [1] Financial Performance - Q1 advertising segment revenue increased by 73% to $1.16 billion, while overall revenue rose by 40% to $1.48 billion, surpassing the $1.38 billion consensus [4] - Apps portfolio revenue decreased by 14% year over year to $325 million, but segment-adjusted EBITDA grew by 9% to $62 million [5] - Gross margin improved to 81.7% from 72.2% a year ago, with sales and marketing expenses reduced by 19% year over year [6] - Earnings per share (EPS) increased from $0.67 to $1.67, exceeding the $1.45 consensus, despite a $189 million non-cash goodwill impairment charge [7] - EBITDA surged by 82% year over year to $1 billion, with advertising-adjusted EBITDA rising by 92% to $943 million [7] - Operating cash flow was $832 million, and free cash flow was $826 million, with net debt at $3.2 billion [7] Future Outlook - Q2 advertising revenue is forecasted to be between $1.195 billion and $1.215 billion, indicating growth of 68% to 71% [8] - Q2 advertising-segment adjusted EBITDA is expected to range between $970 million and $990 million, up from $520 million a year ago [8] - The company is expanding into web-based advertising, currently reaching less than 0.1% of the potential market, with plans for a broader release after refining tools [9] - A self-service dashboard for select customers will be launched to automate processes, allowing new advertisers to set objectives and budgets [10] - Web-based advertising is projected to account for 10% of advertising net revenue this year [11] Valuation - Despite a 288% annual gain, AppLovin stock is considered attractively valued, with a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of about 41 times 2025 analyst estimates and a price/earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio of 0.5, indicating potential undervaluation [13] Growth Potential - The company continues to experience rapid revenue and earnings growth, with strong cash-flow generation [14] - Successful expansion into e-commerce advertising could lead to further robust growth [14] Short-Seller Reports - The short-seller reports from Fuzzy Panda Research, Muddy Waters, and Culper Research raise concerns about the legitimacy of AppLovin's AI adtech platform, Axon 2.0, but lack concrete evidence of wrongdoing [2][15] - AppLovin's CEO has denied the allegations, suggesting that the complexity of Axon 2.0 allows for misinterpretation by short sellers [3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a Neutral rating to AppLovin (APP) with a price target of $355.00 for December 2025, raised from a previous target of $270.00 [1][11][21] Core Insights - AppLovin reported a strong first quarter, with revenue growth of 40% year-over-year and adjusted EBITDA growth of 83% year-over-year, significantly exceeding management's guidance [4][7][15] - The advertising segment was the primary driver of growth, with a 71% year-over-year increase in advertising revenue [7][10] - The company is expected to expand its total addressable market (TAM) beyond gaming into e-commerce and connected TV, although its ability to scale meaningfully outside gaming remains uncertain [10][20] Financial Estimates - Revenue estimates for FY2025 have been raised from $4,957 million to $5,410 million, and for FY2026 from $5,783 million to $6,610 million [1][18] - Adjusted EBITDA estimates for FY2025 have been increased from $3,736 million to $4,222 million, and for FY2026 from $4,713 million to $5,515 million [1][18] - The quarterly forecasts for FY2025 show a significant increase in adjusted EBITDA across all quarters, with Q1 at $1,005 million and Q4 projected at $1,172 million [2][18] Performance Drivers - The report highlights that improvements in technology and a data advantage over peers have led to increased advertising revenue and EBITDA [10][20] - The upcoming launch of a self-serve platform is anticipated to drive demand from advertisers, further enhancing revenue potential [4][10] Valuation - The valuation is based on applying a 22.5x multiple to the 2026E adjusted EBITDA of $5.5 billion, which is a premium compared to competitors [11][21]

Group 1: Trade and Economic Data - In March 2025, the US trade deficit reached $140.5 billion, up from $123.2 billion in February, with exports at $278.5 billion and imports at $419 billion [1] - China's goods trade in April amounted to 3.84 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.6%, with exports at 2.27 trillion yuan (up 9.3%) and imports at 1.57 trillion yuan (up 0.8%) [3] - South Korea's exports fell by 5.2% as of April 20, contrasting with a 5.5% increase in March, with significant declines in exports to the US [2] Group 2: Company Performance and Restructuring - Panasonic announced a global workforce reduction of 10,000 employees, about 4% of its total workforce, as part of a restructuring plan to enhance competitiveness [4] - Ubiquiti Inc. reported a 27.68% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first three quarters of fiscal 2025, totaling $1.814 billion, with net profit rising by 80.87% to $445 million [6] - The Trade Desk's stock surged over 21% following a strong Q1 financial report, with adjusted earnings per share of $0.33 and revenue of approximately $616 million, a 25% year-on-year increase [7] Group 3: Industry Insights - The home appliance sector is expected to maintain steady growth, supported by domestic subsidies and global competitive positioning despite tariff disruptions [5] - AppLovin's Q1 revenue reached $1.48 billion, exceeding market expectations, driven by strong advertising revenue growth [8] - The AI software industry is entering a rapid growth phase, with increasing market focus on AI applications [9]

Group 1 - AppLovin reported strong Q1 performance with revenue of $1.48 billion, a 40% year-over-year increase, exceeding market expectations [1] - The adjusted earnings per share for Q1 were $1.67, also surpassing market forecasts [1] - The company agreed to sell its mobile gaming division to Tripledot Studios to focus on its advertising technology business [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley raised its target price for AppLovin from $350 to $420, maintaining an "overweight" rating due to optimism about future growth [1] - Morgan Stanley is more optimistic about AppLovin's execution in core advertising products, estimating non-gaming products contributed approximately $150 million in revenue in Q2 [1] - UBS also raised its target price for AppLovin from $450 to $475, maintaining a "buy" rating based on profit growth outlook [1] Group 3 - UBS increased its EBITDA forecast for AppLovin for FY2026 by 7.4% to $6.1 billion, reflecting faster growth in web-based advertising revenue [2] - The faster transition to self-service advertising platforms is expected to stimulate new advertiser demand, although it may not guarantee sustained revenue acceleration [2] - UBS noted the willingness to meet advertiser needs, which should help further stimulate demand from new advertisers [2]