Core Viewpoint - BNP Paribas predicts an increase in US Treasury yields and that the USD will reach parity with the Euro by 2025 [1] Group 1: Economic Forecast - The report anticipates that inflation in the US will begin to rise by mid-next year due to tariff measures implemented by the Trump administration [1] - It is expected that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates throughout the year, projected to be between 4.25% and 4.5% [1]

Core Points - The European Central Bank has notified BNP Paribas of the outcome of the 2024 Supervisory Review and Evaluation Process (SREP) regarding capital requirements and leverage ratio for the Group [1] Capital Requirements - The Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) requirement for BNP Paribas is set at 10.29% as of January 1, 2025, slightly up from 10.27% as of September 30, 2024, excluding Pillar 2 Guidance [2] - The CET1 requirement includes a 1.50% G-SIB buffer, a 2.50% Conservation buffer, a 1.14% Pillar 2 Requirement (P2R), and a 0.65% countercyclical buffer [2] - The Tier 1 Capital requirement is 12.09%, which includes 1.44% for the P2R [3] - The Total Capital requirement is 14.49%, with 1.84% allocated for the P2R [4] Leverage Ratio - The leverage ratio requirement for BNP Paribas is 3.85% [5] Current Ratios - As of September 30, 2024, BNP Paribas has a CET1 ratio of 12.7%, which is above the regulatory requirement, with a target of 12% by the end of 2025 [6] - The Tier 1 ratio stands at 14.7% and the Total Capital ratio at 16.7% [6] - The leverage ratio is reported at 4.4%, with a target of 4.3% by the end of 2025 [6]

Group 1 - BNP Paribas has been designated as a Global Systemically Important Bank (G-SIB) in bucket 2 based on end-2023 data [1] - The G-SIB buffer requirement for BNP Paribas remains at 1.5% of total risk-weighted assets starting from January 1, 2025, unchanged from the current level [2] - As of September 30, 2024, BNP Paribas has a CET1 ratio of 12.7%, a Tier 1 ratio of 14.7%, and a Total Capital ratio of 16.7%, indicating strong capital levels above regulatory requirements [2] Group 2 - BNP Paribas is the leading bank in the European Union, operating in 63 countries with nearly 183,000 employees, over 145,000 of whom are in Europe [3] - The Group has key positions in three main fields: Commercial, Personal Banking & Services; Investment & Protection Services; and Corporate & Institutional Banking [3] - BNP Paribas is expanding its integrated commercial and personal banking model across several Mediterranean countries, Turkey, and Eastern Europe, while maintaining a strong presence in the Americas and a growing business in Asia-Pacific [3] - The Group has implemented a Corporate Social Responsibility approach across its activities, contributing to a sustainable future while ensuring performance and stability [3]

Group 1 - BNP Paribas SA's third quarter results were poorly received by the market, leading to a decline of approximately 5% in share price on the day of the announcement [1] - The stock has experienced a disappointing year-to-date performance, with American Depositary Shares (ADSs) showing a lack of growth [1] Group 2 - The article reflects a long-term investment approach, focusing on stocks that can sustainably deliver high-quality earnings, particularly in the dividend and income sectors [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The net income group share for Q3 2024 reached €2.9 billion, marking a strong quarter with a 5.9% year-on-year increase [4][8] - Revenues increased by 2.7% compared to Q3 2023 on a distributable basis, with gross operating income up 4.2% at €4.7 billion [4][18] - Operating income rose 4.1% to nearly €4 billion, and earnings per share (EPS) increased by 11.2% [8][18] - The cost of risk remained stable at 32 basis points, indicating the strength of the credit portfolio [8][44] - The core Equity Tier 1 ratio stood at 12.7%, above the regulatory requirement [9][46] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Corporate and Investment Banking (CIB) saw a revenue increase of 9% year-on-year, driven by strong performance in global markets [5][20] - Commercial and Personal Banking Services (CPBS) generated stable revenues, with a 1.6% increase in France [5][25] - Investment and Protection Services (IPS) revenues rose by 4.9%, supported by insurance and asset management [6][34] - Arval experienced a decline in revenues due to the normalization of used car prices, down 35% year-on-year, but organic business growth was up 15% [31][32] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Eurozone commercial banking outlook is improving, with a favorable shift in the interest rate environment [13][25] - The headwinds affecting business growth are expected to diminish, with a positive trend observed in Q3 [14][25] - The competitive landscape in Belgium remains challenging, impacting margins due to intense competition [29][30] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on operational efficiency, achieving €655 million in savings by the end of September, with a target of €1 billion for the full year [7][43] - The strategic acquisition of AXA Investment Management aims to enhance the IPS division and create synergies across business lines [10][11] - The company plans to redeploy capital from the sale of Bank of the West to support organic growth in high-potential areas [53][54] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the recovery of the French and Belgian banks, targeting growth above 3% for 2025 [62][63] - The normalization of used car prices is expected to impact Arval until Q4 2025, but overall business growth remains strong [15][31] - The company anticipates a pivot in Eurozone retail banking revenues, with improvements expected in Q4 and beyond [94][91] Other Important Information - The company is on track to meet its CET1 target of 12% by the end of 2025, supported by organic capital generation and balance sheet securitization [50][51] - The operational efficiency program is expected to yield cumulative savings of €2.7 billion by the end of 2025 [43] Q&A Session Summary Question: Concerns about Equities and Prime Services performance - Management acknowledged the strong year-to-date performance but noted that Q3 was affected by seasonal factors and market dynamics [56][59] Question: Growth levers for 2025 and 2026 - Management highlighted CIB and IPS as key growth areas, with expectations for positive contributions from Personal Finance and commercial banking in the Eurozone [62][64] Question: Dynamics in French retail banking - Management explained that high short-term rates have negatively impacted margins, but these headwinds are expected to dissipate next year [70][72] Question: AXA deal synergies - Management indicated that while the AXA deal will contribute positively to earnings, there may be initial restructuring costs [97] Question: Fourth quarter performance expectations - Management expressed confidence that Q4 will not repeat the previous year's poor performance, citing improved market conditions [100]

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Analyst's Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Kindly note that our content on Seeking Alpha and other platforms doesn't constitute financial advice ...

Cineberg About This Article ☑ ck Covered Analyst's rating at publication $58.51 18.11% Feb. 15, 2024 8:08 PM ET | BNP Paribas SA (BNPQF) Stock, BNPQY Stock 26.05% Mare Evidence Lab Following R&P 500 change 12.27% a save ff Share Comment (1) Following our update on Crédit Agricole S.A. (OTCPK:CRARF)(OTCPK:CRARY), today we are back to comment on BNP Paribas (OTCQX:BNPQF) (OTCQX: BNPQ Y) . Looking at the French banking sector, despite Light And Shadow, we maintained a Tactical Buy raing staus on DNP. This was ...

Ageas and BNP Paribas: Transparency notification In accordance with the rules on financial transparency*, BNP Paribas has notified Ageas on 13 August 2024 that, on 9 August 2024, the interest of its subsidiary BNP Paribas Cardif S.A. has exceeded the legal threshold of 5% of the shares issued by Ageas. BNP Paribas' current shareholding stands at 9.80%. Reason for the notification Acquisition or disposal of voting securities or voting rights Notification by A parent undertaking or a controlling person Person ...

Cineberg Shares of French banking giant BNP Paribas (OTCQX:BNPQY)(OTCQX:BNPQF)("BNPP" hereafter) have been a little soft since my last update back in April, underperforming European financials (EUFN) by around five points in that time. While short-term returns often represent little more than the vagaries of the market, the catalyst in this case is fairly clear, with BNPP's recent sell-off coinciding with the call of snap French parliamentary elections in June. Data by YCharts Data by YCharts Domestic polit ...