格隆汇9月17日｜法国巴黎银行策略师在一份报告中表示，若美国联邦储备委员会周三宣布降息，美元 走势可能与历史趋势出现偏差。从历史规律来看，若首次降息后未爆发经济衰退，受资金流入美国股市 的支撑，美元往往会在随后几个月内上涨；而若出现经济衰退，美元通常会因避险资金流入而受益。然 而，此次情况或有所不同：若经济衰退可能性上升，美元反而可能下跌——因为当前美元的交易逻辑更 贴合风险资产的波动规律。 ...

Core Viewpoint - BNP Paribas has set a target of 13% for return on tangible equity (ROTE) by 2028 as part of its medium-term plan to be announced in early 2027 [1] Group 1 - The target ROTE of 13% reflects the bank's strategic focus on enhancing profitability and shareholder returns [1]

Core Viewpoint - BNP Paribas aims for a ROTE of 13% by 2028, with a net income target exceeding €12.2 billion in 2025 and a ROTE of 12% in 2026, concluding its 2022-2026 strategic plan [1][2]. Group Performance and Strategy - The Group's solid operational performance in Q2 2025 has confirmed its growth trajectory, with a strong growth momentum initiated in 2025 [1]. - A new medium-term plan for 2027-2030 will be announced in early 2027, continuing the Group's acceleration and progress [2]. - The CET1 phased-in ratio is expected to reach 12.5% by the end of 2027, post-FRTB implementation [2]. Business Segments and Growth Drivers - The Corporate and Institutional Banking (CIB) division is a high-value-added platform and a powerful growth engine, gaining market share through a diversified client franchise and optimized capital [3]. - The Commercial Banking and Personal Banking Services (CPBS) segment aims to align profitability with the Group's overall level, contributing +1% to the Group's ROTE by 2028, including +0.5% by 2026 [4]. - Investment and Protection Services (IPS) is experiencing strong organic growth across its three businesses—Insurance, Asset Management, and Wealth Management—along with external growth operations [5]. Operational Efficiency and Commitment - BNP Paribas continues to implement operational efficiency measures across all businesses and functions, enhancing its ability to support the financing needs of the economy [5][6]. - The commitment of the teams and the strength of the platforms position the Group well for future growth [6].

Core Points - BNP Paribas aims for a ROTE of 13% by 2028, with a net income target exceeding €12.2 billion in 2025 and a ROTE of 12% in 2026, concluding the 2022-2026 strategic plan [1][2] - The CET1 ratio is expected to reach 12.5% by the end of 2027, following the implementation of FRTB [2] Group Performance - The Group's diversified and integrated model supports its growth trajectory, with Corporate and Institutional Banking (CIB) serving as a high-value-added platform and growth engine [3] - The new strategic plan for Commercial Banking and Personal Banking Services (CPBS) aims to align profitability with the Group's overall level, contributing an additional +1% to ROTE by 2028, including +0.5% by 2026 [4] Growth Drivers - Investment in Insurance, Asset Management, and Wealth Management is driving strong organic growth, alongside external growth operations such as the AXA IM acquisition [5] - Operational efficiency measures are being implemented across all businesses and functions to enhance performance [5] Strategic Outlook - The next medium-term plan for 2027-2030 will be announced in early 2027, with continued acceleration and progress expected [2][6] - BNP Paribas is well-positioned to support the financing needs of the economy through its diversified and integrated model [6]

South Africa may beat its budget-deficit target for this year, helped by restrained spending and healthier tax collections, BNP Paribas says https://t.co/33xo42buBC ...

Core Viewpoint - Italian bank UniCredit announced a partnership with French bank BNP Paribas for custody services as part of its strategy to streamline operations and enhance partnerships [1] Company Summary - UniCredit is focusing on operational efficiency and strategic partnerships to improve its service offerings [1] - The collaboration with BNP Paribas aims to enhance custody services, indicating a trend towards consolidation in the banking sector [1] Industry Summary - The partnership reflects a broader industry movement towards collaboration among banks to optimize service delivery and reduce operational complexities [1] - This initiative may signal increased competition in the custody services market, as banks seek to leverage partnerships for better efficiency [1]

Group 1 - The announcement indicates that no stabilisation was carried out for the securities offered by REXEL S.A [2] - The aggregate nominal amount of the securities is EUR 400,000,000 with a description of 4% due in September 2030 [3] - The offer price for the securities is set at 100 [3] Group 2 - The stabilisation managers involved in this announcement include BNP Paribas, CIC, Natixis, ING, RBC, Danske, and DB [4] - The announcement clarifies that the securities are not being offered for sale in the United States and have not been registered under the United States Securities Act of 1933 [5]

Core Viewpoint - BNP Paribas indicates that weak U.S. employment data this week may put pressure on the dollar, potentially leading to a breakout of the dollar against the yen from its recent trading range [1] Group 1: Employment Data Impact - The U.S. employment data set to be released on Friday is expected to influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, with a weak report increasing the likelihood of a rate cut [1] - A soft employment report could reinforce the correlation between foreign exchange and interest rates that was interrupted earlier in the year [1]

Core Viewpoint - Foreign capital is accelerating its entry into the A-share market, focusing on undervalued and small-cap stocks, as evidenced by significant investments from major foreign institutions like Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and UBS [2][6][22]. Group 1: Foreign Investment Trends - As of August 31, major foreign institutions have significantly increased their holdings in small-cap A-share companies, with notable performance in their investments this year [2][6]. - The average increase in stock prices for foreign-held shares has been impressive, with Citigroup leading at 83.72%, followed by UBS at 55.68% and Morgan Stanley at 52.46% [3][10][22]. Group 2: Individual Foreign Institutions - **Goldman Sachs**: Holds shares in 194 companies with an average price increase of 51.28% this year, indicating strong market confidence and potential for further growth [6][10]. - **Morgan Stanley**: Invested in 280 companies, achieving an average price increase of 52.46%, with expectations of continued inflow of global funds into the Chinese market [10][11]. - **UBS**: Asserts that the A-share market is in the early stages of a bull market, with significant growth in holdings and a focus on stocks with over 100% price increases [22][23]. Group 3: Notable Stock Performances - **Citi**: Notable stocks include those with over 100% price increases, such as Weichai Heavy Machinery (190.12%) and Innovation Medical (187.69%) [7][34]. - **Morgan Stanley**: Highlights stocks like Beifang Changlong (448.01%) and Huasheng Tiancai (224.45%) as top performers [10][11]. - **UBS**: Identifies top gainers such as Shangwei New Materials (1146.25%) and Changcheng Military Industry (488.15%) [22][23]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The overall sentiment among foreign investors is optimistic, with expectations of continued upward movement in the A-share market, supported by low current allocations in equities and potential inflows exceeding 10 trillion yuan [6][22].

Group 1 - The French government is facing significant political uncertainty as Prime Minister Borne announced a confidence vote in the National Assembly on September 8 to facilitate the 2026 budget process, amid ongoing opposition [1] - The French stock market reacted negatively, with the CAC 40 index opening down 1.51%, reflecting concerns over political and fiscal instability, particularly among major banking stocks [1] - Major banks such as BNP Paribas, Société Générale, and Crédit Agricole saw significant declines in their stock prices, with drops of 6.19%, 6.31%, and 4.51% respectively [1] Group 2 - The French Economy Minister, Eric Lombard, indicated that if the government fails to secure the confidence vote, there is a possibility of intervention from the International Monetary Fund regarding France's finances [2] - Lombard warned of a potential sharp rise in French government bond yields, suggesting that France could become the weakest among EU countries in terms of debt burden [2] - He expressed concern that within two weeks, France's debt load could surpass that of Italy, which would be alarming for the country [2]