Core Viewpoint - The article compares BNP Paribas SA (BNPQY) and Banco Itau (ITUB) to determine which stock is more attractive for value investors [1] Group 1: Zacks Rank and Earnings Outlook - BNP Paribas SA has a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), indicating a positive earnings outlook, while Banco Itau has a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [3] - The Zacks Rank system favors stocks with positive revisions to earnings estimates, suggesting that BNPQY has an improving earnings outlook [3] Group 2: Valuation Metrics - BNPQY has a forward P/E ratio of 7.58, compared to ITUB's forward P/E of 8.89, indicating that BNPQY may be undervalued [5] - The PEG ratio for BNPQY is 0.72, while ITUB's PEG ratio is 1.00, suggesting that BNPQY has a better valuation relative to its expected earnings growth [5] - BNPQY's P/B ratio is 0.75, significantly lower than ITUB's P/B of 1.98, further indicating that BNPQY is undervalued [6] Group 3: Value Grades - Based on the valuation metrics, BNPQY has a Value grade of A, while ITUB has a Value grade of C, highlighting BNPQY as the superior value option [6]

Core Insights - The liquidity contract between IPSOS and BNP Paribas shows a decrease in trading volume in the second half of 2025 compared to the first half of 2025, indicating a potential shift in market activity or investor interest [1]. Trading Activity Summary - In the second half of 2025, IPSOS traded a total of 47,480 shares for €1,812,695 across 651 transactions, with 44,433 shares sold for €1,684,398 in 494 transactions [1]. - In the first half of 2025, IPSOS traded a total of 61,133 shares for €2,677,607 across 780 transactions, with 61,211 shares sold for €2,709,695 in 792 transactions [1]. Historical Context - The liquidity account has been in operation since July 1, 2021, following AMF decision no. 2021-01, and prior to that, it was established under AMF decision no. 2018-1 on December 31, 2018 [1].

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley upgraded BNP Paribas from "Neutral" to "Overweight" [1] - The target price for BNP Paribas was raised from €89 to €102 [1]

Core Viewpoint - BNP Paribas Chief Economist Isabelle Mateos y Lago discusses the growth outlook for equities in 2026, emphasizing the sustainability of optimism towards AI and tech stocks [1] Group 1: Growth Outlook - The growth outlook for equities in 2026 is cautiously optimistic, with expectations of continued performance in the market [1] - The discussion highlights the potential for AI and technology sectors to drive future growth, suggesting that these areas may remain attractive for investors [1] Group 2: AI and Tech Stocks - There is a prevailing sentiment that optimism towards AI and tech stocks will persist, driven by ongoing advancements and market interest [1] - The analysis indicates that the resilience of these sectors could play a significant role in shaping overall market dynamics in the coming years [1]

Group 1: JPM Coin Launch - JPMorgan Chase & Co is launching JPM Coin on the Canton Network, marking its second deployment on a permissionless blockchain after its initial launch on Coinbase's Base network in November 2025 [1] - JPM Coin is a deposit token representing U.S. dollar deposits held at JPMorgan, serving as a bank-backed alternative to stablecoins for institutional clients, enabling near-instant, 24/7 peer-to-peer transfers and settlements [3] Group 2: Canton Network Overview - Canton, developed by Digital Asset, is backed by major financial institutions including Goldman Sachs, BNP Paribas, and Deutsche Börse, and offers configurable privacy for regulatory and operational needs [2] - The network is already running major institutional pilots, including a limited pilot by DTCC to tokenize U.S. Treasury securities, and has about 400 ecosystem participants [7][8] Group 3: Integration and Future Plans - The integration of JPM Coin into Canton will be phased throughout 2026, focusing on establishing the necessary technical and business frameworks for issuance, transfer, and near-instant redemption [4] - The collaboration will also explore additional integrations of other Kinexys Digital Payments products to expand capabilities for Canton ecosystem participants [5] Group 4: Industry Context and Evolution - JPMorgan has been a pioneer in blockchain experimentation, with a version of JPM Coin first launched in 2019 on its permissioned Onyx blockchain, which rebranded to Kinexys in 2024 [9] - JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon, initially a critic of Bitcoin, has shown interest in stablecoins and the broader crypto sector, indicating a shift in the bank's approach to digital assets [10]

Core Viewpoint - The liquidity contract between EUTELSAT COMMUNICATIONS and BNP PARIBAS is set to settle on 31 December 2025, indicating a structured financial arrangement for asset management [1] Group 1 - The liquidity account will hold specific assets as of the settlement date, reflecting the financial strategy of EUTELSAT COMMUNICATIONS [1]

Market Performance - France's equity benchmark CAC 40 opened flat but drifted lower, down 49.25 points or 0.6% at 8,162.25 before noon [1] - Notable declines were seen in Legrand and Dassault Systemes, which fell 3.7% and 3.6% respectively, while Capgemini and Saint Gobain lost over 3% [1] Company Movements - BNP Paribas, Hermes International, Schneider Electric, Publicis Groupe, LVMH, Air Liquide, Accor, and Societe Generale experienced losses ranging from 1% to 1.6% [2] - In contrast, Orange and STMicroElectronics gained 2.6% and 2.5% respectively, with Michelin up 1.5% and Thales and Engie gaining 1.2% and 1.1% respectively [2] Economic Indicators - France's inflation eased to a seven-month low in December, attributed to a significant drop in energy prices [2] - The consumer price index (CPI) showed an annual increase of 0.8%, the slowest since May, following a 0.9% rise in November [3] - EU harmonized inflation also unexpectedly slowed to 0.7% in December from 0.8% in November, contrary to forecasts [3] PMI Data - The HCOB France Composite PMI for December was revised to 50.0, indicating stagnant output, with the manufacturing PMI at 50.7 and the Services PMI at 50.1 [4] - The HCOB Flash Eurozone Composite PMI for December was revised to 51.5, down from a flash estimate of 51.9 and November's 30-month high of 52.8 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The outlook for the Japanese yen is increasingly pessimistic, with major global investment banks predicting a potential depreciation to 160 yen per dollar or lower by next year due to various economic pressures [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Factors Impacting the Yen - The Bank of Japan's slow interest rate hikes, ongoing capital outflows, and inflation risks driven by fiscal policies are seen as core factors suppressing the yen [3][4]. - Despite a nearly 10% decline in the US dollar index this year, the yen has only slightly rebounded by 0.5%, indicating its weakness [3]. - Market expectations suggest that the next interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan may not be fully priced in until September next year, adding to the uncertainty surrounding the yen [4]. Group 2: Predictions from Analysts - Analysts from JPMorgan and BNP Paribas expect the yen to weaken further, with JPMorgan's Junya Tanase predicting a target of 164 yen per dollar by the end of 2026 [3][5]. - BNP Paribas's Parisha Saimbi anticipates that the macro environment will favor risk appetite, leading to a forecast of 160 yen per dollar by the end of 2026 [4]. Group 3: Capital Outflows and Market Sentiment - There is a notable trend of Japanese retail investors favoring overseas assets, with net purchases through investment trusts at near ten-year highs, which may continue until 2026 [4]. - Corporate capital outflows are also significant, with Japanese companies engaging in high levels of foreign acquisitions this year [4]. - The sentiment in the market remains tense, with speculative pressures on the yen leading to concerns about potential government intervention to stabilize the currency [5].

Core Viewpoint - The recent interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan has failed to provide sustained support for the yen, leading to increased bearish sentiment towards the currency, with predictions of further depreciation against the dollar by 2026 [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Factors - Analysts from major financial institutions, including JPMorgan and BNP Paribas, predict that the yen could weaken to 160 yen per dollar or lower by the end of 2026 due to persistent factors such as significant US-Japan interest rate differentials, negative real interest rates, and ongoing capital outflows [1][2]. - The yen has seen a slight increase of less than 1% against the dollar this year after four consecutive years of decline, but expectations for a reversal driven by the Bank of Japan's rate hikes and potential Fed rate cuts have not materialized [1][2]. - The return of arbitrage trading, where investors borrow low-yielding yen to invest in higher-yielding currencies, is creating additional headwinds for the yen [2]. Group 2: Market Sentiment - Market sentiment remains cautious, with the overnight index swap indicating that the next rate hike by the Bank of Japan is not fully priced in, expected at the earliest in September [2]. - The ongoing high inflation in Japan, which exceeds the Bank of Japan's 2% target, continues to exert pressure on Japanese government bonds [2]. - Japanese retail investors are showing a strong preference for overseas assets, with net purchases through investment trusts hovering around 9.4 trillion yen (approximately 60 billion USD), a ten-year high, which is likely to persist and further suppress the yen [3]. Group 3: Long-term Predictions - Some analysts, including those from Goldman Sachs, believe that the yen may eventually strengthen to 100 yen per dollar over the next decade, although they acknowledge the presence of multiple short-term negative factors [4]. - Concerns about intervention risks are rising as the yen approaches levels that previously prompted official action, but experts suggest that intervention alone may not be sufficient to reverse the yen's downward trend [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - The future performance of European and American bank stocks will increasingly depend on the sustainability of earnings rather than further valuation expansion [4]. Group 1: European Bank Stocks - European bank stocks have shown significant recovery in 2025, with the STOXX Europe 600 Banks index rising approximately 65% year-to-date, making it one of the best-performing sectors in Europe [1]. - Analysts suggest that the rise in European bank stocks is more of a structural recovery rather than a typical cyclical rebound, as their valuation levels were significantly lower than their U.S. counterparts prior to this increase [2]. - The negative impact of the prolonged low-interest-rate environment on European banks' profitability has been a key factor suppressing their valuations [2]. - Major European banks have seen substantial stock price increases, with Deutsche Bank up about 97%, HSBC up approximately 48%, BNP Paribas up around 35%, and UBS up about 30% year-to-date [2]. Group 2: American Bank Stocks - American bank stocks have demonstrated more stable performance in 2025, with notable increases such as Citigroup up about 68%, Goldman Sachs up approximately 57%, and JPMorgan Chase up around 35% [5]. - The core strength of the U.S. banking system lies in its profitability and diversified business structure, which helps mitigate traditional credit cycle fluctuations [5]. - The valuation recovery for U.S. banks began earlier than for European banks, with the market already pricing in expectations of an economic soft landing and interest rate cuts [5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - For 2026, the consensus is shifting from "valuation recovery" to "earnings verification," with European banks needing to see a substantial recovery in credit demand and a reduction in geopolitical risks to maintain their strong performance [6]. - In the U.S., the focus will be on the Federal Reserve's policy path, with large banks expected to maintain capital returns if interest rate cuts are gradual and the economy achieves a soft landing [6]. - The bank stock market in 2026 is expected to be more selective, requiring investors to pay closer attention to earnings quality, risk management, and structural differences between markets [6].