Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has adjusted its profit forecasts and target price for China Overseas Land & Investment (00688) due to the continuous decline in mainland property prices leading to a decrease in profit margins [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Profit Margin Adjustments - The bank has lowered its gross margin forecasts for China Overseas for the years 2025 to 2027 by 0.1 percentage points each, now predicting margins of 16.4%, 19.7%, and 22.7% respectively, compared to 17.7% in 2024 [1] Core Earnings Forecasts - The core earnings forecast for 2025 has been reduced by 0.6%, while the forecasts for 2026 and 2027 have been increased by 0.2% and 3.0% respectively [1] Target Price Revision - Morgan Stanley has raised the target price for China Overseas from HKD 13.2 to HKD 13.7, which reflects a 30% discount to the predicted net asset value per share for this year, maintaining a "market perform" rating [1]

摩根士丹利发表报告，调整对中国海外发展盈利预测与目标价，以反映内地房价持续下跌导致的利润率 下降。具体而言，该行将中国海外2025至2027年的毛利率预测各下调0.1个百分点，分别调整为16.4%、 19.7%及22.7%，相较2024年的17.7%；同时将2025年核心盈利预测下调0.6%，2026年上调0.2%，2027年 上调3.0%。大摩将中国海外的目标价由13.2港元上调至13.7港元，相当预测今年每股资产净值折让 30%，评级"与大市同步"。 ...

Core Viewpoint - In August, China Overseas Development reported a slight decline in contract property sales amounting to approximately 18.33 billion yuan, while the sales area increased significantly by 27.7% year-on-year [1] Sales Performance - The contract property sales for August reached about 18.33 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decrease of 0.7% [1] - The corresponding sales area was approximately 888,500 square meters, which is a year-on-year increase of 27.7% [1]

Core Viewpoint - China Overseas Development (00688) reported a decline in contract property sales for the first eight months of 2025, with a total sales amount of approximately RMB 150.33 billion, representing a year-on-year decrease of 16.5% [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - In August 2025, the contract property sales amount was approximately RMB 18.33 billion, showing a slight year-on-year decline of 0.7% [1] - The corresponding sales area for August 2025 was approximately 888,500 square meters, which is a year-on-year increase of 27.7% [1] - For the period from January to August 2025, the cumulative contract property sales area was approximately 6.67 million square meters, reflecting a minor year-on-year decrease of 0.2% [1] Group 2: Future Sales Expectations - As of August 31, 2025, the company has recognized property sales of approximately RMB 5.36 billion, which is expected to convert into contract property sales in the coming months [1] Group 3: Land Acquisition - In August 2025, the company and/or its subsidiaries did not acquire any land parcels [1] - Additionally, China Overseas Hongyang Group acquired a land parcel in Huizhou, Guangdong Province, with a gross floor area of approximately 179,500 square meters, for a land premium of approximately RMB 622 million [1]

Core Viewpoint - China Overseas Development (00688) reported a slight year-on-year decline in contract property sales amounting to approximately RMB 18.33 billion in August 2025, despite a significant increase in sales area by 27.7% to about 888,500 square meters [1] Sales Performance - For the period from January to August 2025, the cumulative contract property sales reached approximately RMB 150.33 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 16.5%, while the cumulative sales area was about 6.67 million square meters, showing a marginal decline of 0.2% [1] - As of August 31, 2025, the company secured recognized property sales of approximately RMB 5.36 billion, which is expected to convert into contract property sales in the coming months [1] Land Acquisition - In August 2025, the company and/or its subsidiaries did not acquire any land parcels [1] - Additionally, China Overseas Hongyang, along with its subsidiaries, acquired a land parcel in Huizhou, Guangdong Province, with a gross floor area of approximately 179,500 square meters, for a land premium of about RMB 622 million [1]

Core Viewpoint - China Overseas Development (00688.HK) reported a slight decline in contract property sales for August 2025, despite an increase in sales area, indicating a mixed performance in the real estate market [1] Sales Performance - In August 2025, the contract property sales amount was approximately RMB 18.33 billion, representing a year-on-year decrease of 0.7% [1] - The corresponding sales area for the same period was about 888,500 square meters, showing a year-on-year increase of 27.7% [1] Cumulative Sales Data - From January to August 2025, the cumulative contract property sales amount reached approximately RMB 150.33 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 16.5% [1] - The cumulative sales area during this period was around 6,668,500 square meters, which is a slight decrease of 0.2% year-on-year [1] Future Sales Expectations - As of August 31, 2025, the company recorded recognized property sales of approximately RMB 5.36 billion, which is expected to convert into contract property sales in the coming months [1]

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準確性或完整性 亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不對因本公告全部或任何部份內容而產生或因倚賴該等內容而引致 的任何損失承擔任何責任。 （於香港註冊成立之有限公司） （股份代號：688） 截至二零二五年八月三十一日止八個月 物業銷售和土地收購更新 中國海外發展有限公司（「本公司」）欣然宣佈本公司連同其附屬公司、合營公司及聯 營公司（統稱「中國海外系列公司」）截至二零二五年八月三十一日止八個月的若干經 營數據（「物業銷售和土地收購更新」）。本公告亦可於本公司網站（www.coli.com.hk） 閱覽。 一、物業銷售更新 於二零二五年八月，中國海外系列公司的合約物業銷售金額約人民幣183.30億元，按年 下跌0.7%；而相應的銷售面積約為888,500平方米，按年上升27.7%。合約物業銷售金額 和相應的銷售面積的詳情如下列表1所示。 二零二五年一月至八月，中國海外系列公司累計合約物業銷售金額約人民幣1,503.31億 元；而相應的累計銷售面積約6,668,500平方米，分別按年下跌16.5%及0.2%。 此外，截至二零二五年八月三十一日 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, but maintains a strong market position and plans to launch new projects to support sales recovery [1][2]. Financial Performance - Revenue for the first half of 2025 was 83.2 billion yuan, down 4% year-on-year - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 8.6 billion yuan, down 17% year-on-year, which was below previous growth expectations of -6% [1] - Development business revenue decreased by 5% to 78 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 15.8%, down 0.5 percentage points from 2024 [1] Market Position - The company achieved a total contract sales amount of 120.2 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a decrease of 19% year-on-year, ranking second in the industry [2] - The company secured 17 new land parcels during the period, with a total land acquisition amount of 40.4 billion yuan, an increase of 213% year-on-year, maintaining the industry's leading position [2] - The company holds a land reserve of 28.77 million square meters, with 85% located in first-tier and strong second-tier cities [2] Operational Resilience - Non-development business revenue remained stable at 3.54 billion yuan, with a 5 percentage point increase in revenue contribution from first-tier city projects [1] - The occupancy rate of mature shopping center projects was 96.2%, with a year-on-year operating profit margin increase of 1 percentage point to 56.8% [1] Financing and Cost Management - As of the end of the first half of 2025, the company had interest-bearing liabilities of 227.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.8% quarter-on-quarter [3] - The average financing cost was 2.9%, and the ratio of selling and administrative expenses was 3.8%, both remaining low in the industry [3] - The company has made significant progress in asset securitization, with its first commercial REIT formally accepted by regulatory authorities [3] Future Outlook - The company plans to launch 24 new projects in key cities in the second half of 2025, supported by a solid land reserve [1] - The total saleable value is approximately 520 billion yuan, with 93% located in first-tier and strong second-tier cities [2] - The company adjusted its earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2027 to 1.39, 1.48, and 1.60 yuan, reflecting an increase in revenue and gross margin assumptions [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, indicating pressure on profitability despite stable revenue performance [1][2]. Revenue and Profitability - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 832.2 billion, a year-over-year decrease of 4.5% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 86.0 billion, down 16.6% year-over-year, while the core profit attributable to shareholders was 87.8 billion, a decline of 17.5% [1] - The decrease in net profit was attributed to a 4.7 percentage point drop in gross margin to 17.4%, primarily due to reduced project profits from the previous industry cycle [1] Sales Performance - The company recorded sales of 1201.1 billion in development business, a year-over-year decrease of 19.0%, maintaining the second position in the market [2] - Sales in first-tier cities and Hong Kong accounted for 53.7% of total sales, with Beijing contributing 304.5 billion [2] - The company acquired 17 projects in H1 2025, with a land cost of 401.1 billion and a land area of 2.57 million square meters, maintaining a high land acquisition intensity of 33.6% [2] Commercial Operations - Commercial revenue remained stable at 35.4 billion, with office buildings, shopping centers, long-term rentals, and hotels contributing 17 billion, 11.7 billion, 1.6 billion, and 5.1 billion respectively [2] - The leasing rate for mature shopping centers reached 96.2%, with sales and foot traffic increasing by 6.7% and 11.0% year-over-year [2] Financial Health - The company reported a debt-to-asset ratio of 53.7% and a net debt ratio of 28.4%, with interest-bearing loans reduced by 141.2 billion since the beginning of the year [3] - Cash on hand was 1089.6 billion, representing 12.1% of total assets, and the average financing cost decreased by 20 basis points to 2.9% [3] Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 1893.4 billion, 1927.7 billion, and 1983.4 billion from 2025 to 2027, with net profits of 154.3 billion, 160.7 billion, and 170.9 billion respectively [3] - The company is focusing on first and second-tier cities, with a strong financial structure and quality land reserves, indicating potential for continued growth [3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% within the next six months [10]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 832.2 billion yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 4.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 86.0 billion yuan, down 16.6% year-on-year [3][4]. - The decline in net profit is attributed to a 4.7 percentage point drop in gross margin to 17.4%, primarily due to reduced profits from projects acquired during the previous industry cycle [3]. - The company remains focused on core cities, achieving a sales amount of 1,201.1 billion yuan in development business, a decrease of 19.0% year-on-year, with significant contributions from first-tier cities [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For H1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 832.2 billion yuan, with a net profit of 86.0 billion yuan and a core profit of 87.8 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year declines of 4.5%, 16.6%, and 17.5% respectively [3][4]. - The gross margin decreased to 17.4%, while the ratio of operating expenses fell to 3.8%, indicating improved operational efficiency [3]. Sales and Market Position - The company’s development business sales amounted to 1,201.1 billion yuan, with first-tier cities and Hong Kong contributing 556.5 billion yuan, accounting for 53.7% of total sales [3]. - The company acquired 17 projects in H1 2025, with a land cost of 401.1 billion yuan and a land area of 2.57 million square meters, maintaining a strong focus on first-tier cities [3][4]. Commercial Operations - The company reported stable commercial revenue of 35.4 billion yuan, with office buildings and shopping centers contributing 17 billion yuan and 11.7 billion yuan respectively [4]. - The occupancy rate for mature shopping centers reached 96.2%, with sales and foot traffic increasing by 6.7% and 11.0% year-on-year [4]. Financial Health - The company holds cash reserves of 1,089.6 billion yuan, representing 12.1% of total assets, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 53.7% and a net debt ratio of 28.4% [4]. - The average financing cost decreased by 20 basis points to 2.9%, maintaining a leading position in the industry [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 1,893.4 billion yuan, 1,927.7 billion yuan, and 1,983.4 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, with net profits of 154.3 billion yuan, 160.7 billion yuan, and 170.9 billion yuan respectively [5][6].