NVIDIA NASDAQ: NVDA did not mention nuclear specifically in its Q4 report or 2025 guidance, but the news is no less critical to nuclear stocks like NuScale Power NYSE: SMR, Oklo Inc. NYSE: OKLO, and Cameco NYSE: CCJ. The significant details pertain to the wickedly hot demand for GPUs, escalating power consumption with each new generation, and a forecast for compute needs to grow by 100x for the next generation AI models. They point to continued, sustained, and accelerating power demand from the data centers ...

Core Viewpoint - Cameco's stock price has recently declined significantly due to concerns that China may have developed a less energy-intensive version of AI, which raises questions about the role of nuclear power in powering data centers [1] Group 1 - The decline in Cameco's stock is primarily attributed to the potential impact of China's advancements in AI technology on energy consumption [1] - The news challenges the investment thesis that nuclear power will be a key energy source for data centers, leading to increased uncertainty among traders [1]

Core Viewpoint - Cameco (CCJ) shares have declined significantly, with a year-to-date drop of 20.9%, contrasting with the industry's return of 2.8% and the S&P 500's decline of 4.9% [1][4]. Group 1: Stock Performance and Market Context - The decline in Cameco's stock aligns with a 29% decrease in uranium prices over the past year, including a 12% drop this year [4]. - Cameco's stock is currently trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating a bearish trend following a death crossover on March 4, 2025 [5][6]. - Peer Centrus Energy (LEU) has seen an 11% gain this year, highlighting the relative underperformance of Cameco [4]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For FY24, Cameco's revenues rose 21% year-over-year to $2.2 billion (CAD $3.14 billion), driven by higher sales volumes and improved average realized prices [8]. - In the uranium segment, sales volume increased by 5% and prices rose by 17%, contributing to a 24% increase in full-year revenues [9]. - Adjusted earnings per share were reported at 47 cents (CAD 0.67), down 24% year-over-year but above the consensus estimate of 42 cents [10]. Group 3: Production and Future Outlook - Cameco plans to produce 18 million pounds of uranium at both McArthur River/Key Lake and Cigar Lake in 2025, with projected uranium deliveries of 31-34 million pounds [11][12]. - Production from the joint venture Inkai faced challenges, with a total production of 7.8 million pounds in 2024, slightly lower than the previous year due to supply chain issues [15]. - Kazakhstan's new Mineral Extraction Tax (MET) will increase from 6% to 9% in 2025, impacting Cameco's cost structure [16]. Group 4: Market Valuation and Investment Considerations - Cameco's stock is trading at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 6.84, significantly higher than the industry's 1.08 and above its five-year median of 6.05 [20]. - The company's Value Score of F indicates a stretched valuation, suggesting that the stock is not currently cheap [21]. - Despite the challenges, Cameco aims to maintain financial strength and flexibility to boost production and capitalize on market opportunities [22].

Company Overview - Cameco is primarily a uranium miner, involved in the extraction and processing of uranium for nuclear power plants. The company also has a stake in Westinghouse, which provides construction and maintenance services for nuclear facilities [2]. Industry Trends - There is a nuclear power renaissance in the United States, driven by the need for reliable base-load power as the world transitions from carbon-based energy sources to cleaner alternatives. Nuclear power is seen as a viable solution since it does not emit carbon dioxide [5][6]. - New reactor designs are being developed that are expected to be safer and more cost-effective than older models, including large-scale reactors and small modular reactors [6]. Market Dynamics - The price of uranium has been volatile, experiencing a decline after a multi-year increase, which has impacted Cameco's stock performance. Over the past three years, Cameco's shares have increased by over 90%, but in the last three months, the stock has lost more than 25% of its value [3][4]. - The market's perception of nuclear power's future plays a significant role in stock price movements. A positive outlook may present buying opportunities, while a negative view could indicate a longer-term trend of decline [8]. Investment Considerations - For risk-averse investors, Cameco may not be the ideal choice, as investing in utilities that own nuclear power plants could be a safer option. Conversely, for risk-tolerant investors with a long-term positive outlook on nuclear power, Cameco could provide direct exposure to the sector, albeit with expected volatility [9].

Group 1 - Cameco Corporation is recognized as one of the world's leading producers of uranium, with significant operations in conversion and fuel services, bolstered by the recent acquisition of Westinghouse [1][2] - The company holds a strong position in uranium through Tier 1 assets and strategic joint ventures, including partnerships with Orano and Kazatomprom for the Inkai asset [3] - Currently, Cameco maintains supply discipline, with 30% of its licensed and permitted capacity in care and maintenance due to market conditions [3] Group 2 - The conference call features Grant Isaac, the Executive Vice President and CFO of Cameco, who will provide insights and address questions regarding the company's operations and market strategy [1][2] - The focus of the discussion will include the company's uranium properties and the potential for further uranium production upside [3]

Core Viewpoint - Cameco's recent fourth-quarter and 2024 results showed strong revenue growth, but the stock has declined due to concerns over annual earnings and specific operational challenges [1][2][32]. Financial Performance - Fourth-quarter revenues increased by 36.5% year over year to $846 million (CAD 1,183 million), surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $753 million [8]. - Earnings per share (EPS) for the fourth quarter were 26 cents (CAD 0.36), beating the consensus estimate of 23 cents [8]. - For 2024, revenues rose 21% year over year to $2.2 billion (CAD 3.14 billion), exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.15 billion [11]. - Adjusted EPS for 2024 was 47 cents (CAD 0.67), down 24% year over year but above the consensus estimate of 42 cents [12]. Production and Sales - In Q4, Cameco produced 6.1 million pounds of uranium, a 7% increase from the previous year, and sold 12.8 million pounds, a 30% increase [9]. - The average realized uranium price rose 12% year over year to $58.45 per pound, contributing to a 48% increase in uranium revenues [9]. - For 2024, uranium sales volume grew by 5% and prices increased by 17%, leading to a 24% increase in uranium segment revenues [11]. Operational Challenges - Production from the Inkai joint venture was 7.8 million pounds, with Cameco's share being 3.6 million pounds, which was 0.6 million pounds lower than in 2023 due to supply-chain issues [16]. - The new Mineral Extraction Tax (MET) in Kazakhstan will increase from 6% to 9% in 2025, impacting future production costs [17]. Dividend and Financial Strategy - Cameco increased its annual dividend by 33% to 16 cents per share and plans to implement a growth plan to reach 24 cents per share by 2026 [19]. - The company ended 2024 with C$600 million ($422 million) in cash and C$1.3 billion ($0.91 billion) in long-term debt, indicating a solid balance sheet for future investments [20]. Market Position and Outlook - Cameco's return on equity stands at 5.6%, significantly higher than the industry average of 1.7% [25]. - The stock is trading at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 7.71, above the industry average of 1.00, suggesting a premium valuation [26]. - The global focus on nuclear energy due to geopolitical events and climate concerns positions Cameco favorably to capitalize on rising low-carbon energy demand [28].

Group 1: Technical Analysis and Stock Performance - The 200-day simple moving average (SMA) is a significant technical indicator for traders, serving as a barometer for overall stock sentiment [1] - Stocks trading above their 200-day SMA may indicate overbought conditions, while those below may signal potential upward movement [1][2] - Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) stock is currently about 15% below its 200-day SMA and near its 52-week low, despite showing potential for sharp movements [6] Group 2: Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) Insights - FCX stock has a 12-month price forecast of $51.46, indicating a 39.20% upside based on 15 analyst ratings [3] - The stock is down 9.1% in the last six months, despite a 3.16% increase in 2025 [4] - The company is expected to resume copper shipments in February 2025, which could positively impact stock performance [5] Group 3: Generac Holdings Inc. (GNRC) Overview - Generac's stock has a 12-month price forecast of $174.00, suggesting a 26.20% upside based on 21 analyst ratings [7] - The company reported strong earnings due to stormy weather causing power outages, which has temporarily halted the stock's decline [8][9] - GNRC stock is consolidating around its 10-day SMA and is about 10% below its 200-day SMA, with the next earnings report expected in April [10] Group 4: Cameco Corp. (CCJ) Analysis - Cameco has a 12-month price forecast of $66.56, indicating a 52.81% upside based on 7 analyst ratings [11] - The stock has been in a bullish trend since 2020, with increased momentum in 2024 due to a positive shift in global attitudes toward nuclear power [12] - Cameco is expected to report significantly higher year-over-year revenue and earnings on February 20 [12][13]

Industry Overview - The nuclear energy sector is experiencing a resurgence, driven by increasing electricity demand and a renewed interest in nuclear power as a reliable energy source [4][22] - A potential uranium supercycle is emerging due to soaring demand and limited supply, making uranium mining companies attractive investment opportunities [1][9] Demand Drivers - Global electricity demand is projected to double from 460 terawatt-hours in 2022 to over 1,000 terawatt-hours by 2026, largely fueled by artificial intelligence, data centers, and cryptocurrency [2] - The electrification trend, including the rise of electric vehicles and industrial processes shifting towards electricity, further accelerates the need for clean energy sources [3] Supply Constraints - Uranium supply is constrained due to years of low prices post-Fukushima, leading to mine closures and reduced exploration [5] - Existing uranium stockpiles are depleting, and geopolitical risks in major production countries like Kazakhstan and Niger add complexity to the supply chain [6][7] Investment Opportunities - The convergence of high demand and limited supply indicates a prolonged period of rising uranium prices, presenting a strategic investment opportunity in uranium mining companies [9] - Cameco Corporation, as the largest publicly traded uranium producer, has a strong market position with a market capitalization of $20.84 billion and significant growth potential [12] - Energy Fuels, a US-based producer, is positioned to benefit from domestic energy security, with a market capitalization of $981.53 million and projected revenue growth [16] Investment Vehicles - The Global X Uranium ETF offers diversified exposure to the uranium mining sector, with $3.43 billion in assets under management and a focus on companies involved in uranium mining and nuclear components [19][20]

Group 1: Company Performance - Cameco Corporation reported a 21% year-over-year increase in sales for 2024, but earnings fell over 50% to $0.39 per share [2] - The company generated $482 million in positive free cash flow last year, resulting in a price-to-free-cash-flow ratio of 40 [4] - Despite a market valuation exceeding $19 billion, Cameco's earnings over the past 12 months were only $119 million, leading to a high price-to-earnings ratio of 162 [4] Group 2: Market Conditions - The uranium market has seen a significant decline, with prices dropping approximately 31% from highs near $95 per pound a year ago to around $65 per pound [2] - Current uranium prices are above the $60 breakeven point, which encourages miners to increase production, potentially leading to further price declines [3] - The outlook for nuclear power and nuclear fuel fundamentals is described as more favorable than it has been for decades, with management predicting strong financial performance to continue in 2025 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The uranium stock of Cameco is showing resilience and potential for growth, driven by strong financial performance and favorable market conditions in the nuclear energy sector [1][5]. Financial Performance - Cameco reported a 40% year-over-year increase in revenue for the fourth quarter and a 21% increase for the full year, primarily due to higher prices [2]. - The average realized price of uranium rose by 17% to $58.34 per pound, while sales volumes increased by 5% in 2024 [2]. - Despite a nearly 50% drop in net earnings for 2024, demand and sales remained strong [2]. Production and Operations - Production at Cameco's McArthur River/Key Lake mine reached a record high in 2024, attributed to advancements in automation and digitization [4]. - Production at the Cigar Lake mine fell short of expectations, but an increase in production is anticipated for 2025 [4]. - The company plans to produce a total of 36 million pounds of uranium in 2025, with 18 million pounds expected from each of its two mines [6]. Market Outlook - Management is optimistic about the nuclear power market, stating that the outlook for nuclear fuel fundamentals is more favorable than it has been for decades [5]. - The uranium market is shifting focus from spot prices to long-term contracts with utilities, which is beneficial for Cameco [5]. - As of December 30, 2024, Cameco had nearly 220 million pounds in long-term contracts and is actively discussing additional contracts, indicating a resurgence in utility interest in the uranium market [7]. Shareholder Returns - Cameco increased its annual dividend per share by 33% last year and expects this trend to continue, which is a positive signal for investors [7].