Group 1 - Celsius Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: CELH) has experienced a significant price increase of up to 80% from this year's lows but is still trading around 2021 levels despite recent improvements [1] - The company has made a new acquisition and is focusing on international expansion, which is expected to enhance its growth potential [1] - The management team is described as good, indicating effective leadership and strategic direction for the company [1] Group 2 - The analyst has over 10 years of experience researching various companies across multiple sectors, including commodities and technology, which adds credibility to the analysis of Celsius Holdings [1] - The analyst has transitioned from writing a blog to creating a value investing-focused YouTube channel, indicating a shift in strategy to reach a broader audience [1]

Celsius Holdings Inc (NASDAQ:CELH) is set for a higher open, last seen up 5.2% in premarket trading, after TD Cowen upgraded the energy drink stock to “buy” from “hold” and lifted its price target from $37 to $55. The brokerage cited confidence in Celsius’ long-term growth trajectory, fueled by integration of the Alani Nu acquisition and broader retail distribution in 2026.Today’s pop could put CELH back on track toward its June 1 nearly 52-week high of $44, following a short-lived pullback that snapped the ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses three stocks—Target, Celsius Holdings, and Freshpet—that have underperformed but may have potential for recovery in the near future, despite their current challenges [1][2][3]. Group 1: Target - Target's stock has decreased by 33% over the past year, attributed to negative store comps and declining net sales over two consecutive quarters [4][5]. - The stock's yield has risen to 4.6%, and the company has a history of increasing dividends for 53 consecutive years, with expectations for a potential hike soon [5][6]. - Target faces challenges in regaining customer trust due to political controversies that have alienated both conservative and liberal shoppers [8][9]. - The company has a payout ratio of less than 50% of its trailing earnings, indicating room for dividend increases while aiming for a turnaround [6][10]. Group 2: Celsius Holdings - Celsius Holdings has experienced a 42% decline in stock value over the past year, despite being one of the year's biggest market winners with over 60% growth [11]. - The company has seen significant revenue growth in previous years, but recent quarters have shown year-over-year declines [12]. - The acquisition of Alani Nu is expected to positively impact market share and revenue, with results anticipated to improve starting from the current quarter [13]. Group 3: Freshpet - Freshpet's stock has dropped by 39%, holding a 3.5% share of the dog food market but dominating the fresh or frozen pet food segment with 96% market share in brick-and-mortar retailers [14]. - The company has consistently achieved over 27% top-line growth for seven years, but it has revised its growth expectations down to 15% to 18% for the current year [15]. - Despite the decline, Freshpet's stock remains at a premium valuation, trading at three times sales and 37 times next year's earnings, indicating potential for recovery if growth resumes [16].

Core Viewpoint - Investors in the Food - Miscellaneous sector should consider BRF (BRFS) and Celsius Holdings Inc. (CELH) for potential value opportunities, with BRFS currently appearing to offer better value based on various financial metrics [1]. Group 1: Zacks Rank and Earnings Outlook - BRF has a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), indicating a positive earnings estimate revision trend, while Celsius Holdings has a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [3]. - The improving earnings outlook for BRF makes it a more attractive option in the Zacks Rank model [7]. Group 2: Valuation Metrics - BRF has a forward P/E ratio of 9.05, significantly lower than CELH's forward P/E of 49.58, suggesting BRF is undervalued [5]. - The PEG ratio for BRF is 0.22, indicating strong expected EPS growth relative to its valuation, while CELH has a PEG ratio of 1.45 [5]. - BRF's P/B ratio is 1.32, compared to CELH's P/B of 23.61, further highlighting BRF's relative undervaluation [6]. - Based on these valuation metrics, BRF holds a Value grade of B, while CELH has a Value grade of D [6].

Core Viewpoint - Celsius Holdings is experiencing a potential recovery after significant declines, driven by its niche in the energy drink market and recent acquisitions [1][2]. Company Overview - Celsius has established a lucrative niche within the energy drink industry by targeting fitness enthusiasts rather than competing directly with larger brands like Red Bull and Monster Beverage [4]. - The company’s distribution agreement with PepsiCo in August 2022 significantly boosted sales, leading to a 75% increase in quarterly revenues since the agreement [5]. Financial Performance - Celsius stock has declined over 60% since its peak in early 2024 but has increased over 50% since the beginning of the year [2]. - In Q1 2025, Celsius reported revenue of $329 million, a 7% year-over-year decline, which is an improvement from a 31% decline in Q3 2024 [9]. - The company’s comprehensive income in Q1 2025 was $37 million, down from $63 million in the same quarter the previous year [9]. Market Position - Celsius holds approximately 11% market share, ranking third in the energy drink market, and leads in the health and fitness-oriented niche [6]. - The forward P/E ratio of 50 reflects a recovery from historical lows, suggesting a more favorable valuation compared to the peak P/E ratio of 125 [8]. Growth Prospects - Analysts forecast a 60% revenue growth in 2025, primarily due to the acquisition of Alani Nu, but expect a slowdown to 21% growth in 2026 [10]. - International sales, which accounted for 7% of revenue in Q1 2025, grew by 41% annually, indicating significant potential for future growth [10][11]. Investment Outlook - Despite potential overvaluation indicated by the forward P/E ratio, Celsius stock is considered a long-term buy due to expected demand growth and international market expansion [12][13]. - The company’s growth story is seen as ongoing, with international sales likely becoming a primary revenue driver over time [13].

Celsius Holdings Conference Call Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Celsius Holdings, Inc. (CELH) - **Industry**: Energy Drinks and Functional Beverages - **Key Brands**: Celsius and Alani Nu Core Points and Arguments 1. **Market Position**: Celsius is a leader in the energy drink category, contributing over 50% of the energy category growth last year, with a combined market share of 16.6% alongside Alani Nu, positioning them close to Monster in the U.S. market [7][9][42] 2. **Target Market Expansion**: The acquisition of Alani Nu, a female-focused brand, allows Celsius to tap into a broader demographic, particularly among health-conscious consumers [2][34][41] 3. **Growth Strategy**: Celsius aims to increase shelf space and drive demand through enhanced marketing, with expectations of 15% to 20% greater distribution in 2025 [3][24][66] 4. **Product Portfolio**: Celsius offers a diverse range of products, including core energy drinks, a Vibe line, and hydration packets, catering to various consumer preferences [21][23][24] 5. **Financial Performance**: Celsius reported $3.5 billion in retail sales last year, with a gross profit margin of approximately 48% for combined operations with Alani Nu [11][51] 6. **Consumer Trends**: The energy drink market has shifted towards a more gender-balanced and health-focused demographic, with sugar-free options now representing over 50% of the category [20][43] 7. **Innovation and Marketing**: Celsius plans to launch limited-time offerings (LTOs) and a new marketing initiative called "Live Fit Go" to broaden its appeal beyond fitness enthusiasts [27][28][33] Additional Important Insights 1. **Operational Excellence**: The acquisition of Big Beverage in North Carolina is expected to enhance production capabilities and improve margins through vertical integration [17][55][78] 2. **Competitive Landscape**: Celsius is positioned to compete effectively against major players like Red Bull and Monster, with a focus on zero-sugar products and innovative marketing strategies [59][60] 3. **Future Outlook**: The company anticipates continued growth in the energy drink category, with a robust consumer base and plans for further product innovation [65][66] 4. **Integration Focus**: The integration of Alani Nu is a top priority, with expectations for it to achieve similar margin profiles as Celsius within 24 months [52][74] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed during the Celsius Holdings conference call, highlighting the company's strategic direction, market positioning, and growth potential within the energy drink industry.

Celsius Holdings Company Conference Call Summary Company Overview - Celsius Holdings is a global maker of premium lifestyle energy drinks, including the Celsius brand and Aloni New, which is the fourth largest energy drink brand in the U.S. [2][3] - The company generated approximately $2 billion in revenue last year, with significant growth expected in both the U.S. and international markets [2][3]. Industry Dynamics - The energy drink category is experiencing a renaissance, with an increasing number of consumers, particularly females, entering the market [6][7]. - The category is evolving, with energy drinks being consumed throughout the day and with meals, rather than just for specific needs [7][8]. - The U.S. market has seen a shift towards sugar-free options, with over 50% of sales in the energy drink category now being sugar-free [13][14]. Market Position and Strategy - Celsius currently holds approximately 10.8% to 11% market share in the U.S. energy drink category, down from a peak of 12.3% [25][26]. - The company aims to regain growth through a balanced innovation strategy, including new flavors and partnerships [27][28]. - The addition of Aloni New is expected to enhance Celsius's market position, with both brands together representing about 16.5% of the category [11][12]. Financial Performance and Projections - Celsius is targeting $50 million in synergies from the integration of Aloni New, with a two-year plan to align financial profiles [17][18]. - The company has a gross margin in the low fifties and SG&A in the low thirties, with expectations to improve these metrics through synergies and global expansion [17][18]. - The energy drink category is projected to grow at high single-digit rates over the next several years, providing a favorable environment for Celsius [80]. International Expansion - Celsius is focusing on international markets, having recently launched in France, Australia, New Zealand, and the UK, with a goal of achieving a 10% market share in these regions within three to five years [41][43]. - The company has established a partnership with Suntory for distribution in international markets and aims to build a loyal consumer base [41][44]. Brand Synergies and Management - Celsius and Aloni New will maintain separate marketing teams to preserve brand identities while leveraging synergies in supply chain and promotional strategies [48][49]. - The dual-brand strategy allows for more flexible pricing and promotional tactics, enhancing market competitiveness [47][48]. Product Innovation and SKU Management - Celsius is reviewing its SKU assortment to ensure consistency across retailers and optimize the product portfolio [64][66]. - Limited-time offerings (LTOs) are being used strategically to attract new consumers and disrupt purchasing habits [72][76]. Future Outlook - The company is focused on regaining market share in the U.S. and expanding internationally, with a strong emphasis on health and wellness trends [108][109]. - Celsius aims to continue innovating within the energy drink category while exploring opportunities in adjacent markets, such as hydration products and protein offerings [99][90]. Conclusion - Celsius Holdings is well-positioned to capitalize on the evolving energy drink market, with a clear strategy for growth through innovation, brand synergy, and international expansion [109].

Celsius Holdings, Inc. and Elani Nu Conference Call Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Celsius Holdings, Inc. (CELH) - **Acquisition**: Successfully completed acquisition of Elani Nu, a premium energy drink supplement health nutrition company founded in 2018 [2][5] Industry Insights - **Energy Drink Market**: The energy drink category is projected to grow at approximately 10% CAGR from 2024 to 2029 [10] - **Consumer Trends**: There is a significant consumer shift towards premium functional beverage options that cater to health and wellness [9][10] Financial Highlights - **Elani Nu Performance**: - 2024 net revenues: approximately $605 million - Adjusted EBITDA margin for 2024: approximately 15% - Adjusted EBITDA dollars for 2024: approximately $88 million - Revenue CAGR from 2022 to 2024: approximately 49% [6] - **Combined Financials**: - Projected combined revenues for 2024: approximately $2 billion - Combined brands represent approximately 16% market share in the U.S. energy category [14] - Expected run rate cost synergies of $50 million over two years post-acquisition [11] Strategic Rationale - **Complementary Brands**: The acquisition enhances Celsius's position as an innovative leader in the energy drink category, combining two growing brands with clear category tailwinds [10][11] - **Target Demographics**: - Celsius targets a gender-neutral, performance-driven audience - Elani Nu focuses on female consumers aged 18-24, emphasizing health and wellness [15] Growth Opportunities - **Product Portfolio Expansion**: - Elani's product mix includes RTD energy drinks (83% of sales), protein shakes (6%), and other supplements [7] - Potential to expand into adjacent categories and new channels [17] - **Innovation and Marketing**: - Plans for flavor innovation and marketing initiatives to drive growth [31] - Seasonal limited-time offerings (LTOs) will be strategically timed to maximize market impact [46] Operational Insights - **Integration Plan**: - Full integration of Elani Nu into Celsius's supply chain expected over 24 months, with significant synergies anticipated [24] - Initial synergies projected to roll in by Q4 2025, with a run rate of approximately $4.2 million per month starting April 2026 [27] - **Financial Projections**: - Projected GAAP gross margin for combined businesses in 2025: high 40s percentage - Expected effective tax rate for 2025: approximately 25% to 26% [21][22] Risks and Considerations - **Market Volatility**: The company acknowledges risks and uncertainties that may affect forward-looking statements [3] - **LTO Timing**: The success of limited-time offerings can lead to fluctuations in sales data, complicating revenue recognition [19][35] Conclusion - Celsius Holdings is positioned to leverage the acquisition of Elani Nu to enhance its market share and capitalize on growing consumer trends towards health-focused energy drinks. The integration strategy and focus on innovation are expected to drive significant growth and profitability in the coming years.

Alani Nu Transaction Highlights - Alani Nu's 2024 net sales reached $605 million with an adjusted EBITDA of $88 million, representing a 15% margin[16] - Alani Nu experienced a net sales CAGR of 49% from 2022 to 2024, growing from $272 million in 2022 to $605 million in 2024[19] - Alani Nu is the 4 energy drink in the U S with a brand and products created with female consumers and their health and wellness needs in mind[20] Strategic Rationale - The combined Celsius and Alani Nu portfolio is expected to drive approximately $2 billion in sales[28] - The energy category is projected to grow at a 10% CAGR from 2024 to 2029[29] - Celsius and Alani Nu drove 50% of total energy category growth[40] Pro Forma Data - Pro forma consolidated net revenue for Celsius and Alani Nu in 2024 was $1961 million, with a gross profit margin of 48% and SG&A as a percentage of revenue at 36%[60] - Alani Nu's net revenue grew by 46% from $413 million in FY 2023 to $605 million in FY 2024[62] 2025 Profile and Synergies - The combined company forecasts a gross profit margin of 47-49% and SG&A as a percentage of revenue of 32-34% for FY 2025[66] - Celsius has identified over $50 million in estimated run-rate cost synergies to be achieved over two years post-close[69]

27 May 2025 | 9:42AM EDT Americas Beverages NielsenIQ data thru 5/17 - Non-alcoholic bev sales growth decelerates sequentially, driven by softer pricing Our View - Recent NielsenIQ sales growth trends (including xAOC + Convenience and now Amazon) across total non-alcoholic beverages modestly decelerated on a sequential basis in the latest 2-wks ending 5/17/25, dragged by slightly softer pricing growth - as volume growth was broadly stable. Overall, $ sales growth was up +3.4% y/y for 2-wks (vs. +3.8%/+5.0%/ ...