UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION Washington, D.C. 20549 For the fiscal year ended December 31, 2024 OR o TRANSITION REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 For the transition period from __________to__________ Commission File Number: 001-34611 CELSIUS HOLDINGS, INC. (Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter) | Nevada | 20-2745790 | | --- | --- | | (State or other jurisdiction of | (I.R.S. Employer | | incorporation or organization) | Identifi ...

Celsius Holdings, Inc. (CELH) has seen its shares plunge as much as 70.4% in the past year compared with the industry’s decline of 9.9%. The energy drinks player also underperformed the broader Zacks Consumer Staples sector and the S&P 500’s respective growth of 4.1% and 17.1% in the same time frame.CELH Price Performance Versus Industry, Sector & S&P 500Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchCELH ended the trading session at $25.69 on Friday, closer to its 52-week low of $21.10 reached on Feb. 12. While Ce ...

Celsius Holdings (NASDAQ: CELH ) has had a pretty disastrous year to say the least with the stock crashing ~75% from highs in May 2024. They had to do something because the once high growth, growing market shareMMMT Wealth is run by Oliver, a CPA working in the financial services sector mainly in private equity, hedge funds, and asset management. MMMT Wealth began in 2023 when Oliver started writing online mainly on X and Substack about investment strategies and stocks. His main aim is to gather insights fr ...

Group 1 - Celsius Holdings has experienced a challenging year with lower sales due to a cautious consumer-spending environment, but Needham has raised its price target from $38 to $40 following the latest earnings report [1][2] - The company's revenue declined by 4% year over year in Q4 2024, with a 3% increase for the full year, marking a significant drop from the triple-digit growth reported in 2023, largely due to inventory adjustments by its largest distributor, PepsiCo [3] - The energy drink market presents a long-term growth opportunity for Celsius, which ranks third in market share behind Red Bull and Monster Beverage, and the recent acquisition of Alani Nu could help broaden its product appeal [4] Group 2 - The $1.8 billion acquisition of Alani Nu is viewed by some investors as a stretch for growth, but it is seen as an affordable way for Celsius to increase market share and expand its beverage lineup, with management indicating it will be accretive to earnings in the first year [5] - Celsius has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 28, and while it may not return to triple-digit growth rates, the stock's current valuation at approximately $27 per share offers better value and return prospects following a 73% decline from its all-time high [6]

Group 1: Celsius Holdings - Celsius Holdings operates in a $200 billion energy drink market and has seen its stock decline 68% due to a weak retail environment, despite being well-positioned for long-term growth [2][4] - Fourth-quarter revenue decreased by 4% year over year, but retail sales of Celsius products grew by 22%, indicating strong sales volumes [3][4] - The brand contributed to 30% of the energy drink category growth in 2024 and holds an 11.8% market share [4] - Celsius announced the acquisition of Alani Nu for $1.8 billion, which will enhance its product offerings and contribute to profits in the first year [5] - The company is expanding internationally and has a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 29, with expected earnings growth of 25% annually [6] Group 2: Lululemon Athletica - Lululemon Athletica operates in a $211 billion athletic apparel industry and has shown higher revenue growth than Nike, currently trading about 28% off its previous peak [7] - Revenue from China grew by 39% year over year, indicating strong international growth potential [8] - The company has a return on capital employed of 45%, reflecting its premium pricing strategy and store efficiency [9] - Lululemon plans to expand into new markets, including Italy, Denmark, Belgium, Turkey, and the Czech Republic, with international revenue making up 26% of total revenue [9] - The stock has a forward P/E of 23, suggesting reasonable valuation for expected double-digit earnings growth in the coming years [10]

Core Viewpoint - Celsius Holdings is facing challenges with a significant drop in stock price following its announcement of acquiring competitor Alani Nu for $1.8 billion, amidst slowing revenue growth and increasing competition in the energy drink market [1][6]. Financial Performance - Celsius reported a 6% decline in North American revenue for Q4, attributed to reduced inventory from distributor PepsiCo, while international revenue grew by 39% [3]. - The acquisition of Alani Nu, which is growing at 50% year over year and generated $173 million in adjusted earnings in 2024, is valued at just over 10 times its trailing earnings [5]. Market Dynamics - The energy drink market is becoming increasingly competitive, with Alani Nu gaining market share at a faster rate than Celsius, prompting the acquisition as a defensive strategy [4][6]. - Post-acquisition, Celsius's market cap is projected to rise to $7.8 billion, with combined sales expected to exceed $2 billion in 2025 [7][8]. Investment Considerations - The acquisition may present a buying opportunity for investors who believe in the growth potential of the combined company, particularly in the sugar-free energy drink segment [8].

Core Viewpoint - Celsius Holdings is positioning itself as a leader in the sugar-free energy drink market, especially following its acquisition of Alani Nu, which could significantly enhance its market share and revenue potential [2][4]. Group 1: Acquisition and Financials - The acquisition of Alani Nu is valued at $1.8 billion, or $1.65 billion when accounting for tax credits, with Alani Nu generating $595 million in annual revenue and $173 million in EBITDA [4]. - The EBITDA multiple for the acquisition is 9.5x, which is considered attractive by investors, contributing to a significant stock price increase [5]. - Celsius's stock experienced a 40% increase following the announcement of the Alani Nu acquisition, despite a 4% decline in its own revenue [1][5]. Group 2: Market Position and Growth Potential - The combined revenue of Celsius and Alani Nu is projected to reach around $2 billion, potentially capturing close to 20% market share in the U.S. energy drink market [2][9]. - Celsius aims to expand internationally, with a 39% year-over-year growth in international revenue, although it currently represents a small portion of total sales [6][7]. - The global energy drink market is valued at $90 billion, and there is a growing demand for sugar-free options, which Celsius and Alani Nu are well-positioned to meet [7]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The integration of Alani Nu is expected to take time, with profit margins initially low, but there is potential for margins to reach levels similar to Monster Beverage's 26.3% operating margin in the future [9][10]. - The enterprise value of Celsius, after accounting for debt and dilution from the acquisition, is estimated to be around $9 billion, suggesting the stock may be undervalued if margin expansion occurs [8][10]. - The overall growth trajectory for Celsius and Alani Nu is anticipated to be double-digit, driven by international expansion and market share gains [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - Celsius has faced significant challenges over the past year, with its stock down nearly 50% despite a recent surge following better-than-expected Q4 results and a major acquisition of Alani Nu for $1.8 billion [1][7]. Recent Results - Celsius reported Q4 revenue of $332.2 million, a 4% decline year-over-year but above the consensus estimate of $326 million [3]. - North American revenue decreased by 6% to $311.9 million, while international revenue increased by 39% to $20.3 million [4]. - Gross margins improved by 240 basis points to 50.2%, leading to a slight increase in gross profits, driven by lower freight costs and raw material savings [5]. - Adjusted EPS fell by 18% to $0.14, with adjusted EBITDA declining by 4% to $62.9 million due to a 73% increase in expenses [6]. Acquisition Details - Celsius is acquiring Alani Nu for $1.8 billion, which includes $1.275 billion in cash and $500 million in shares, at a multiple of 12 times 2024 adjusted EBITDA and 2.8 times sales [7]. - Alani Nu generated nearly $595 million in sales last year, with a compounded annual growth rate of 50% since 2022, and an EBITDA of $137 million [8]. - The combined brands will hold approximately 16% market share in the energy drink category, with Alani also contributing a range of nutritional products [9]. Growth Potential - The acquisition is expected to reinvigorate growth for Celsius, particularly in attracting female consumers, a demographic that both brands target [10]. - Celsius plans to leverage Alani's distribution through PepsiCo to enhance growth, similar to previous strategies that benefited Celsius [11]. - The company anticipates 15% to 20% shelf space gains for its brand this year, which could lead to improved growth rates in 2025 [11]. - Celsius is also focusing on innovation and expanding its international presence, having entered six new countries in 2024 [12]. Valuation and Investment Considerations - Following the recent stock surge, Celsius trades at a forward P/E ratio of around 33 times, excluding contributions from the Alani acquisition [13]. - If Celsius can successfully rejuvenate its brand through innovation and increased shelf space, the current valuation may appear attractive, with significant opportunities in international markets and Alani Nu distribution expansion [14].

Core Viewpoint - Celsius Holdings is experiencing stock volatility due to a decline in consumer sentiment, which is impacting its performance despite a recent acquisition that initially boosted its stock price [1][5][8]. Company Performance - Celsius shares fell by approximately 13.99% amid concerns over consumer demand [1][2]. - The company reported a decline in revenue and profit in its fourth-quarter earnings, with U.S. retail sales growth slowing to just 2%, compared to previous high-double-digit growth [6]. - The recent acquisition of Alani Nu for $1.8 billion was positively received, leading to a 28% increase in stock price on the announcement day [5]. Market Conditions - The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index dropped by seven points to 98.3, indicating growing consumer anxiety about inflation and potential tariffs [4]. - The energy drink market is facing increased competition from sugar-free options offered by Red Bull and Monster Beverage, alongside a general market maturation [7]. - Weakening consumer spending may hinder Celsius's recovery efforts, as its products are priced at a premium, targeting a demographic with less discretionary income [7].

Core Viewpoint - Celsius Holdings has experienced a significant stock price surge following a better-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings report and the announcement of a $1.8 billion acquisition of Alani Nutrition LLC, raising questions about the sustainability of this growth amidst underlying challenges [1][2][12]. Financial Performance - The fourth-quarter revenue for Celsius was reported at $332.2 million, exceeding the consensus estimate of $326.07 million, but reflecting a 4% decrease compared to the same quarter in 2023 [2][3]. - Adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) reached $0.14, surpassing analyst expectations of $0.11, while gross margin improved to 50.2%, up from 47.8% in the fourth quarter of 2023 [4][5]. Acquisition Details - Celsius announced a definitive agreement to acquire Alani Nutrition LLC for $1.8 billion, which is expected to enhance its position in the functional beverage sector [7][8]. - The acquisition is projected to create a combined sales base of around $2 billion and command approximately 16% of the total energy drink market [9]. - Celsius anticipates $50 million in run-rate cost synergies within two years from the acquisition [10]. Market Position and Strategy - The acquisition of Alani Nu is seen as a strategic move for market share expansion, particularly targeting the female consumer demographic [9]. - The deal is valued at less than three times Alani Nu's trailing revenue and approximately 12 times its trailing adjusted EBITDA, indicating a reasonable price tag [11]. Future Outlook - Analysts have set a 12-month stock price forecast for Celsius at $47.67, suggesting a potential upside of 51.95% [12]. - Key metrics to monitor include quarterly revenue growth and market share data to assess the impact of the Alani Nu acquisition and the resolution of inventory challenges with PepsiCo [19].