3月31日上榜港股通成交活跃榜个股中，华润燃气为近一个月首次上榜。 证券时报·数据宝统计显示，3月31日港股通（包括沪市港股通及深市港股通）成交活跃股合计成交 431.09亿港元，占当日港股通成交金额的38.43%，净卖出金额28.25亿港元。 上榜的成交活跃股中，小米集团-W成交额为100.30亿港元，成交金额居首；其次是腾讯控股、阿里巴 巴-W，成交金额分别为66.63亿港元、57.55亿港元。 以上榜次数统计，3月31日上榜个股中，近一个月上榜次数最多的是阿里巴巴-W、腾讯控股等，近一个 月均上榜21次，最受港股通资金关注。 华润燃气为近一个月首次上榜，当日港股通成交额为12.05亿港元，成交净买入7.85亿港元，该股当日收 盘下跌17.73%。（数据宝） 3月31日港股通成交活跃股榜单 | 证券 | 证券简称 | 成交金额（亿 | 净买入金额（亿 | 近一个月上榜 | 最新收盘价 | 日涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 代码 | | 港元） | 港元） | 次数 | （港元） | （%） | | 00700 | 腾讯控股 | 66. ...

业绩大幅下滑，华润燃气股价遭遇大跌。 今日，华润燃气跳空低开，最新跌17.55%，报23.25港元/股，总市值538.01亿港元。 近年来，华润燃气股价持续走低，自2021年6月的高点至今，公司股价在3年多的时间内累计跌超50%。 华润燃气表示，该业务的渗透率仍处于低位，未来有望成为公司的重要业务组成部分。 综合能源业务上，截至2024年底，华润燃气的分布式能源、分布式光伏、交通充能累计签约3.2GW、286MW，478MW，累计投运2.6GW、94.7MW、 415MW。 2024年的能源销售量同比高增27.2%至37.4亿千瓦时，实现综合能源毛利3.6亿港元，同比增长33.6%。 业绩低于预期 财报显示，华润燃气2024年实现营收1026.76亿港元，同比增长1.4%；核心利润为41.48亿港元，同比增长0.02%；股东应占溢利为40.88亿港元，同比下降 21.7%；基本每股收益为1.8港元。 华润燃气去年的毛利率为17.8%，较前一年同期下降0.4个百分点，主要是由于毛利率相对较高的接驳收入占比由10.8%下降至9%。 券商普遍认为，华润燃气的这份业绩低于预期。 | | | | 增加 / | | -- ...

年内，集团新开发工商业用户5.3万户，新开发居民用户269.3万户，其中：新房接驳用户211.7万户，旧 房接驳用户57.6万户。集团在中国运营的城市燃气项目平均气化率由2023年同期的59.3%上升至60.4%。 集团持续专注城市燃气核心业务发展，凭借良好的企业品牌形象，2024年，重点围绕"一城一网"整合， 新增签约项目7个，注册项目4个，增加特许经营区域2678平方公里，潜在销气量6.1亿方，新增居民用 户9.8万户，重点项目涵盖1个直辖市及多个地级市，进一步夯实了公司在核心城市燃气主业的主导地 位。 截至2024年12月31日，集团层面注册城市燃气项目数276个，遍布全国25个省份，其中包括：15个省会 城市，76个地级市。不断扩大的经营区域及项目优越的地理位置，为集团核心业务的持续快速增长奠定 了坚实基础。 智通财经APP讯，华润燃气(01193)发布截至2024年12月31日止年度的末期业绩，收入1026.76亿港元， 同比增加1.39%;股东应占溢利40.88亿港元，同比减少21.74%;每股基本盈利1.8港元;拟派发末期股息每股 70港仙。 公告称，2024年，集团采取多项举措保障天然气供应能 ...

Financial Performance - Revenue for the year ended December 31, 2024, was HKD 102,676 million, an increase of 1.4% from HKD 101,272 million in 2023[3] - Core profit for the same period was HKD 4,148 million, showing a marginal increase of 0.02% compared to HKD 4,147 million in 2023[3] - Profit attributable to the company's owners decreased by 21.7% to HKD 4,088 million from HKD 5,224 million in 2023[3] - Total comprehensive income for the year was HKD 4,410 million, a decrease from HKD 5,428 million in 2023[5] - Basic earnings per share for the year were HKD 1.80, down from HKD 2.30 in 2023[5] - Total revenue for the year ended December 31, 2024, was HKD 102,675,888,000, with a pre-tax profit of HKD 7,746,214,000[17] - The company achieved a total classified profit of HKD 13,079,019 for the year, with significant contributions from various service segments[20] - The company’s interest income from loans to subsidiaries increased significantly to HKD 53,772 in 2024 from HKD 12,024 in 2023, indicating improved financial management[25] - The company’s employee costs totaled HKD 6,642,541 for the year, showing an increase from HKD 6,338,861 in the previous year, reflecting growth in workforce and compensation[26] Sales and Revenue Breakdown - Total gas sales volume increased by 2.9% to 39,907 million cubic meters from 38,784 million cubic meters in 2023[3] - The revenue breakdown includes sales of gas fuel and related products at HKD 85,565,630,000, gas connection services at HKD 9,250,793,000, and integrated services at HKD 4,205,793,000[17] - Total natural gas sales increased by 2.9% to 39.91 billion cubic meters, with industrial sales at 20.42 billion cubic meters (up 1.5%) and residential sales at 10.04 billion cubic meters (up 6.3%) [37] - The company developed 53,000 new industrial users and 2.693 million new residential users, with the average gasification rate increasing from 59.3% to 60.4% [38] Assets and Liabilities - Non-current assets increased to HKD 103,014 million from HKD 102,417 million in 2023[6] - Current liabilities rose to HKD 53,837 million from HKD 51,109 million in 2023[6] - Total assets as of December 31, 2024, amounted to HKD 132,482,695,000, with classified assets of HKD 92,618,333,000[18] - Total liabilities were reported at HKD 68,511,719,000, with classified liabilities of HKD 31,456,819,000[18] - Trade receivables decreased to HKD 9.82 billion from HKD 11.44 billion, with receivables aged 0 to 90 days at HKD 6.15 billion [32] - Trade payables decreased to HKD 11.98 billion from HKD 14.44 billion, with payables aged 0 to 90 days at HKD 9.16 billion [33] Dividends and Shareholder Information - The proposed final dividend for the year is HKD 0.70 per share, down from HKD 1.0069 per share in the previous year, totaling HKD 1.58777 billion [29] - The proposed final dividend for 2024 will be paid in Hong Kong dollars, with an option for shareholders to receive it in Renminbi at a rate of HKD 1.0 to RMB 0.92319[51] - The final dividend per share in Renminbi will be RMB 0.6462358 for those opting for this currency[51] - The proposed final dividend for the year ending December 31, 2024, is HKD 0.70 per share, totaling HKD 0.95 per share for the year, down from HKD 1.1569 per share in 2023[48] Strategic Initiatives and Market Expansion - The company plans to continue expanding its market presence and enhancing operational efficiency in response to the green energy transition [35] - The company is focusing on strategic partnerships and market expansion to leverage opportunities in urban redevelopment and industrial customer development [38] - In 2024, the company signed 7 new projects and registered 4 projects, expanding its franchise area by 2,678 square kilometers, with a potential gas sales volume of 610 million cubic meters and 98,000 new residential users[39] - The company is actively expanding into Hong Kong and overseas markets, establishing investment platforms and joint ventures to promote business growth[42] Governance and Compliance - The company has adopted the corporate governance code as per the Hong Kong Stock Exchange rules and has complied with most applicable provisions[53] - The company deviated from the governance code regarding the formal appointment letters for directors and the separation of roles between the chairman and CEO[54] - All directors have complied with the standard code of conduct for securities trading during the reporting period[55] - No significant events occurred after the reporting date that could impact the company's operations or performance[56] Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) Focus - The company emphasizes ESG management, maintaining an MSCI ESG rating of A, and is committed to sustainable development and compliance with environmental standards[44] - The company aims to enhance its comprehensive energy solutions and capitalize on the growing demand for clean energy in the Chinese market[46] Miscellaneous - The chairman expressed gratitude to business partners, customers, and shareholders for their support and acknowledged the hard work of all employees[58] - The annual report will be sent to shareholders and published on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange website and the company's website[57] - The company will suspend share transfer registration from May 23, 2025, to May 28, 2025, for the annual general meeting[50]

华润燃气 20250312 摘要 Q&A 为什么在当前时点推荐华润燃气作为投资标的？ 当前市场主要炒作科技股和成长股，部分投资经理希望通过哑铃策略配置一些 红利资产。复盘成人行业的发展阶段后发现，成长股逐渐转变为红利股，进入 红利价值释放阶段。2018 年后，尽管受到地产接驳下滑和气价上涨的影响，但 随着这些阴影逐渐退去，成人行业进入了红利价值释放阶段。华润燃气在五大 城燃公司中接驳利润占比相对较小，并且其综合能源和综合服务业务提供了业 绩支撑，使其红利价值不被业绩风险敞口因素压制。 • 华润燃气作为全国性城镇燃气龙头，零售气量市占率居行业首位，正从接 驳业务驱动转向售气利润增长，2024 年上半年售气业务占比达 70%，接驳 利润降至 17%。 • 公司现金流充裕，资产负债率适中，具备提升分红能力。派息率从 2016 年 的 30%增至 2023 年的 50%，美股派息年均复合增速达 25%，高于归母净利 润增速。 • 受地产下滑和气价上涨影响，成人行业曾面临双重风险。华润燃气通过综 合能源与综合服务新业务（贡献 11%税前利润）抵消接驳业绩下滑，逐步 走出阴影。 • 公司主要布局一二线城市，项目优质，20 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a current price of HKD 26.75 and a target value of HKD 34.20 [4][248]. Core Insights - The company is a leading urban gas provider in China, with a strong focus on city gas operations and a significant market share, achieving a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25% in gas sales from 2008 to 2023 [9][39]. - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery of LNG prices and the implementation of pricing policies that will enhance profitability [9][248]. - The report highlights the company's robust financial health, with a return on equity (ROE) consistently above 10% and a dividend payout ratio increasing to 50.3% in 2023, indicating strong shareholder returns [9][94]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company is backed by China Resources Group and has been deeply involved in the urban gas sector for over 20 years, ranking among the top three in gas sales nationwide [21][23]. - As of 2024H1, the company operates 276 urban gas projects across 25 provinces, with a coverage of 97.08 million users [31][39]. 2. Pricing and Profitability - The company has seen a recovery in profitability due to the stabilization of gas prices and the implementation of a pricing mechanism that aligns sales prices with procurement costs [9][160]. - The average selling price of gas in 2023 was HKD 3.50 per cubic meter, with a gross margin of HKD 0.51 per cubic meter, showing improvement from previous years [160][248]. 3. Business Segments - Gas sales accounted for 82% of total revenue in 2023, with a significant contribution from the connection business, which, despite its smaller share, has a high profit margin [55][241]. - The comprehensive service segment has been growing rapidly, with revenues reaching HKD 40.45 billion in 2023, driven by kitchen and heating services [202][204]. 4. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of HKD 50 billion, HKD 57 billion, and HKD 63 billion for the years 2024 to 2026, respectively, with corresponding earnings per share (EPS) of HKD 2.17, HKD 2.44, and HKD 2.73 [9][243]. - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in gross margins, with expected improvements in the gas sales segment due to favorable pricing policies [239][240]. 5. Market Dynamics - The urban gas market in China is expected to continue growing, driven by increasing urbanization and the demand for cleaner energy sources [97][106]. - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on these trends, with a strategic focus on expanding its service offerings and enhancing customer engagement through innovative service models [207][212].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target PE of 12x for 2025 and a dividend yield of 4.5% [106] Core Views - The company's profitability has gradually recovered in recent years, with the main gas sales business accounting for 71% of profits in the first half of 2024 [7] - The global natural gas market is rebalancing after the supply shocks of 2022-2023, but geopolitical conflicts and extreme weather continue to cause price volatility [9] - China's natural gas import dependency has increased to 42% in 2023, with LNG accounting for 61% of imports, making international gas prices more influential on domestic pricing [12] - The company is gradually building its own natural gas resource pool, which is expected to optimize its gas source structure and reduce procurement costs [36] - The company's dividend payout ratio has steadily increased from 18% in 2011 to 50% in 2023, with further room for growth as capital expenditures shrink and operating cash flow improves [45] Financial Performance - The company's operating income is expected to grow from HKD 101.3 billion in 2023 to HKD 112.8 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 3.6% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase from HKD 5.2 billion in 2023 to HKD 6.4 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 6.8% [1] - Gross margin is forecast to rise from 18.2% in 2023 to 19.2% in 2026, while ROE remains stable around 11% [1] - EPS is expected to grow from HKD 2.30 in 2023 to HKD 2.81 in 2026, with a forward PE ratio declining from 13.4x to 11.0x [1] Industry Analysis - Natural gas accounted for 8.5% of China's primary energy consumption in 2023, significantly lower than the global average of 23%, indicating substantial growth potential [22] - China's natural gas consumption is expected to reach 600 billion cubic meters by 2030, with a CAGR of 6.2% from 2023 [52] - The global LNG trade volume is projected to increase from 400 billion cubic meters in 2023 to 500 billion cubic meters by 2025 [8] - China's natural gas consumption structure is shifting, with industrial and residential consumption accounting for 40% and 30% respectively in 2023 [23] Company Strategy - The company is focusing on distributed photovoltaic, distributed energy, and transportation charging businesses, with comprehensive energy service revenue reaching HKD 1.64 billion in 2023, up 73% YoY [78] - The company is actively participating in urban village renovation projects and "pingji liangyong" infrastructure construction, which could boost its penetration rate in existing projects [28] - The company is optimizing its gas source structure through its own LNG receiving station, which is expected to reduce procurement costs and improve flexibility [36] - The company is expanding its integrated services business, with revenue from this segment growing 125% YoY to HKD 2.7 billion in 2023 [69]

Investment Rating - Buy (First Coverage) [1] Core Views - The company is the largest city gas operator in China, with stable cash flow matching capital expenditures and steadily increasing dividends [1] - The gas sales business benefits from high-quality projects and improved profitability due to market-oriented reforms [1] - The company is rapidly expanding its comprehensive service and comprehensive energy businesses, creating new growth points [1] - The company's city gas projects are of high quality, with price adjustments driving profit recovery, and the dual-comprehensive business growing faster than the industry [1] Business Overview City Gas Operations - The company is the largest city gas operator in China, with 276 city gas projects across 25 provinces as of 2024H1 [1] - Retail gas sales reached 387.80 billion cubic meters in 2023, accounting for 10% of national consumption [1] - The company's retail gas volume grew at a CAGR of 9.8% from 2018 to 2023, with a 5.3% YoY increase in 2024H1 [1] - The company's gas sales gross margin improved to 0.54 yuan/cubic meter in 2024H1, up 0.04 yuan/cubic meter YoY [1] Comprehensive Services - The company has 55.808 million urban residential users as of 2023, with 72.9% located in tier 1-3 cities [1] - Comprehensive service segment profit grew 18.99% YoY to 1.37 billion HKD in 2023, and further increased 22.12% YoY to 760 million HKD in 2024H1 [1] - The company's market share in kitchen appliances and insurance businesses reached 8.6% and 23.0% respectively in 2023 [1] Comprehensive Energy Business - The company focuses on distributed photovoltaic, distributed energy, and transportation energy sectors [1] - Energy sales volume increased 84.9% YoY to 2.94 billion kWh in 2023, with a gross profit of 270 million HKD, up 125% YoY [1] - In 2024H1, energy sales volume grew 54.6% YoY to 1.49 billion kWh, with a gross profit of 160 million HKD, up 84.3% YoY [1] Financial Performance - The company's operating revenue is expected to reach 98.882 billion HKD in 2024, with a YoY decrease of 2.83% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 5.722 billion HKD in 2024, with a YoY increase of 9.5% [1] - EPS is expected to be 2.47 HKD in 2024, with a P/E ratio of 11.5x [1] Valuation and Peer Comparison - The company's net profit is expected to grow at a CAGR of 9.1% from 2023 to 2026, faster than its peers [87] - The company's P/E ratio is 12.6x for 2023, 11.5x for 2024, 10.5x for 2025, and 9.7x for 2026, lower than the industry average [87]

Investment Rating and Target Price - The report initiates coverage on Huarong Gas with a "Buy" rating and a target price of HKD 37.05, based on a 15x PE multiple for 2024 [2] - The target price is derived from a combination of relative and absolute valuation methods, including PE, PB, and DDM models [11][14][16] Core Investment Thesis - Huarong Gas is expected to see steady profit growth driven by optimized business structure, improved operating cash flow, and reduced capital expenditures [1][7] - The company's free cash flow is improving, and its dividend per share (DPS) is entering an upward trajectory, enhancing its dividend value [1][2][7] - Key catalysts include margin improvement, dividend increases, and declining market interest rates [2][7] Business Segments and Growth Drivers Retail Gas Sales - Retail gas sales volume is expected to grow steadily, supported by policies like "coal-to-gas" and "bottle-to-pipeline" conversions [2][7][36] - The company's gas margin is expected to recover due to price adjustments and cost reductions, with a projected margin of RMB 0.53/0.55/0.56 per cubic meter for 2024-2026 [8][9] - Huarong Gas benefits from a higher proportion of residential gas sales, which allows it to capture more price adjustment benefits [7][42] Connection Business - Despite a slowdown in new connections due to the real estate downturn, the company still has room for growth, with an estimated 298/268/241 thousand new residential connections for 2024-2026 [8][54] - The company's contract liabilities remain high, providing a buffer for future connection business [7][55] Comprehensive Services and Energy Business - The comprehensive services business, including gas appliances and insurance, is expected to grow at a CAGR of 24.0%/22.0%/20.0% from 2024-2026 [8][58] - The comprehensive energy business, including distributed energy and EV charging, is projected to grow rapidly, with a target revenue of HKD 5 billion by 2025 [60][61] Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow at a CAGR of 5.0%/4.9%/3.9% from 2024-2026, reaching HKD 106.4/111.6/116.0 billion [9][10] - Net profit is projected to grow at a CAGR of 9.5%/11.3%/8.9% over the same period, with EPS of HKD 2.47/2.75/3.00 [9][10] Valuation - Relative valuation using PE and PB multiples suggests a fair value of HKD 37.05, based on a 15x PE and 2.0x PB for 2024 [11][12][13] - The DDM model estimates an intrinsic value of HKD 42.95 per share, based on a two-stage growth model and a cost of equity of 6.6% [14][15][16] Industry and Market Position - Huarong Gas is one of the largest city gas operators in China, with a strong presence in economically developed regions like the Yangtze River Delta and the Greater Bay Area [17][54] - The company benefits from its stable gas supply, with 87.7% of its gas sourced from pipelines, and long-term contracts with major suppliers like CNPC and Sinopec [42][43] Operational Efficiency and Cash Flow - The company has improved its working capital management, with positive cash flow contributions from prepayments and receivables in 2023 [7][51] - The gap between accounts receivable turnover days and prepayment turnover days has narrowed, indicating better cash flow efficiency [51][52]