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中泰期货晨会纪要-20260107

Zhong Tai Qi Huo· 2026-01-07 01:28

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A-share market is strong, with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a record-long winning streak, and the stock index futures can be considered for trend-following operations [9][13]. - The bond market is under pressure, and the strategy for treasury bond futures is to maintain a flattening yield curve [15]. - Steel is expected to maintain a sideways trend, and iron ore is recommended to be shorted on rallies [17][18]. - The prices of coking coal and coke may rise sideways in the short term, and attention should be paid to the disturbances from coal mine production and safety inspections [19]. - For ferroalloys, it is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term, paying attention to position management [21]. - For soda ash, it is advisable to wait and see; for glass, try to go long after the market sentiment stabilizes [22]. - The short-term price of lithium carbonate will be strong, but beware of significant fluctuations [24]. - For industrial silicon, pay attention to the opportunity to sell out-of-the-money call options on rallies; for polysilicon, hold the previous long positions and continue to look for opportunities to buy on dips [25][26]. - For cotton, operate by buying on dips and rolling; for sugar, trade short-term in the low range [28][30]. - The near-term contracts of eggs are expected to have limited upside space, while the far-term contracts are supported by strong expectations but also have limited upside [32][33]. - The apple futures may be strong, and the corn futures will be sideways to strong in the short term [34]. - The jujube market will maintain a sideways trend, and the short-term spot price of live pigs is likely to decline [36][38]. - The oil price will be sideways without new events, and the prices of fuel oil and plastics will follow the oil price [40][42][43]. - The rubber futures will be sideways, and it is advisable to go long on dips; the synthetic rubber may be strong in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see if there are no positions [45][46]. - For methanol, consider a slightly long allocation for the far-term contracts; for caustic soda, maintain a long position [47][48]. - The asphalt price is expected to fluctuate more significantly, and pay attention to the price bottom after the winter storage game [49]. - The polyester industry chain prices will follow the cost, and consider the PX and PTA 5 - 9 inter - month positive spreads [51]. - The LPG price has support, but the upside space is limited; the pulp futures are advisable to wait and see; the urea market will be strong in the short term [52][53][55]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Information - On January 6, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.5% to 4083.67 points, achieving a 13 - day winning streak and hitting a new high in over 10 years [9]. - The 2026 International Consumer Electronics Show (CES 2026) kicked off on January 6. NVIDIA announced the full production of the new - generation AI chip platform Vera Rubin, and launched the world's first open - source VLA autonomous driving inference model Alpamayo [9]. - The People's Bank of China deployed key tasks for 2026, including using various monetary policy tools flexibly and efficiently, and strengthening financial market supervision [9]. - China decided to ban the export of all dual - use items to Japanese military users and military purposes [10]. - Four departments jointly issued a document to promote employees' cultural and sports consumption [10]. - Regulatory authorities surveyed some wealth management companies to address the bottlenecks for medium - and long - term funds to enter the market [10]. - As of January 5, over 280 Hong Kong - listed companies released their 2025 fiscal year performance forecasts. The performance of non - ferrous metal and innovative drug companies was generally good, while some traditional industries faced pressure [10]. - The China Securities Index Company announced index adjustments, which will take effect after the market closes on January 9 [11]. - More than a dozen small and medium - sized banks adjusted their deposit interest rates, showing a differentiated pattern [11]. - Boston Dynamics under Hyundai Motor plans to produce 30,000 Atlas humanoid robots annually in the US starting in 2028 [11]. - A US senior official said that Trump's team is discussing various options to acquire Greenland [11]. - A large number of US military planes flew to Europe recently, and Iran's armed forces are on high alert [12]. - The US Secret Service launched a large - scale recruitment campaign to prepare for major events in 2028 [12]. Stock Index Futures - The A - share market continued to rise with enlarged trading volume. The three major PMI indexes all rose to the expansion range, indicating an overall recovery of China's economic prosperity. It is recommended to consider trend - following operations [13][14]. Treasury Bond Futures - The capital market is balanced and slightly loose, and the stock index is strong, putting pressure on the bond market. The strategy is to flatten the yield curve [15]. Black Metals Steel and Iron Ore - Policy has little impact on steel production. The demand for building materials is weak, while the demand for coils is okay. The supply of steel mills is stable, and the inventory is high. The valuation of iron ore is reasonable, and the supply is strong while the demand is stable. Steel is expected to be sideways, and iron ore is recommended to be shorted on rallies [17][18]. Coking Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke may rise sideways in the short term. The supply of coking coal may shrink, and the potential negative feedback risk restricts the price increase. The inventory of upstream enterprises is increasing, and the downstream replenishment is slow [19][20]. Ferroalloys - The market is affected by emotions, and it is not recommended to chase the rise. It is advisable to short on rallies in the medium term, paying attention to position management [21]. Soda Ash and Glass - For soda ash, wait and see; for glass, try to go long after the market sentiment stabilizes. The supply of soda ash is at a high level, and new capacity may be put into production. The market expects cold - repair of glass production lines, and attention should be paid to the implementation of cold - repair [22]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Lithium Carbonate - The short - term price will be strong, but beware of significant fluctuations. The fundamentals are slightly weak, but the mine disturbances reduce the复产 expectation, and the long - term demand is good [24]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - For industrial silicon, pay attention to the opportunity to sell out - of - the - money call options on rallies. For polysilicon, hold the previous long positions and continue to look for opportunities to buy on dips. The supply and demand of industrial silicon are in a loose balance, and the supply and demand of polysilicon are stable, with the anti -内卷 policy dominating the market [25][26]. Agricultural Products Cotton - The short - term supply is loose, but the long - term supply is expected to shrink. It is advisable to buy on dips and roll. The international cotton price is affected by the planting area and export, and the domestic cotton price is affected by the pre - holiday replenishment and the decline in production before the Spring Festival [28][29]. Sugar - The domestic sugar market is in a season of strong supply and demand. It is recommended to trade short - term in the low range. The global sugar supply is in surplus, but some institutions have lowered the surplus forecast [30][31]. Eggs - The spot price of eggs is rising seasonally before the Spring Festival, but the supply - demand pattern is still loose. The upside space of the near - term contracts is limited, and the far - term contracts are supported by expectations but also have limited upside [32][33]. Apples - The futures price may be strong. The出库 of apples is slightly lower than last year, the sales in the sales area are weak, and attention should be paid to the price changes in the sales area [34]. Corn - The short - term futures price will be sideways to strong. The price is affected by the farmers' selling sentiment and policy - related grain auctions [34][35]. Jujubes - The market will maintain a sideways trend. The prices in the production and sales areas are stable, and attention should be paid to the sales in the peak consumption season [36][37]. Live Pigs - The spot price is expected to decline in the middle of January. The futures main contract is recommended to be shorted on rallies. The second - fattening entry is active, and the supply pressure before the Spring Festival is increasing [38]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The geopolitical trading is over, and the market focuses on fundamentals. The oil price is facing a serious supply surplus, and it will be sideways without new events. Attention should be paid to the situation in Iran [40]. Fuel Oil - The price follows the oil price. The supply is loose, and the demand is weak. The geopolitical situation in Iran affects the oil price, and the inventory is increasing [42]. Plastics - The supply pressure of polyolefins is large, and the demand is weak. The upstream is in heavy losses, which may support a small rebound. It is advisable to take a sideways view and beware of callback risks [43][44]. Rubber - The price will be sideways, and it is advisable to go long on dips. The raw material price in Thailand is rising, and the fundamentals have no obvious contradictions [45]. Synthetic Rubber - The price may be strong in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see if there are no positions. The price is driven by cost and market sentiment, and attention should be paid to the downstream procurement sentiment [46]. Methanol - The fundamentals are improving in the medium - long term. The far - term contracts can be considered for a slightly long allocation. The supply may be affected by the situation in Iran, and attention should be paid to the port inventory [47]. Caustic Soda - Maintain a long position. The impact of fundamentals on the futures is weak, and the spot price in Shandong is stable or declining [48]. Asphalt - The price is expected to fluctuate more significantly, and attention should be paid to the price bottom after the winter storage game. The supply of raw materials is uncertain due to geopolitics [49][50]. Polyester Industry Chain - The prices follow the cost. Consider the PX and PTA 5 - 9 inter - month positive spreads. The supply and demand of PX and PTA are expected to weaken, and the market for ethylene glycol and short - fiber will be sideways [51]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The price has support, but the upside space is limited. The supply in the Middle East is tight, but the global supply is abundant. The demand in winter is strong, but the chemical end is under pressure [52]. Paper Pulp - It is advisable to wait and see. The spot trading is weak, the port inventory is increasing, and the valuation does not provide a good opportunity [53]. Logs - The fundamentals are slightly weak, and the price will be sideways. The domestic spot market is stable, and the port inventory is increasing [54]. Urea - The spot and futures markets are expected to be strong in the short term. The spot price is rising, and the futures price is also strong [55][56].