Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported $92.5 million of adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2025, marking the strongest quarter in several years [21] - Operating costs were reduced by $24 million compared to the same quarter last year, with a year-to-date reduction of $60 million [5][21] - The company reduced its restricted group debt by over $40 million during the quarter [21] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The specialty products and solutions segment generated $80.2 million of adjusted EBITDA, with production volume gains of 8% compared to the prior year [23] - The Montana Renewables segment generated adjusted EBITDA with tax attributes of $17.1 million, an increase from $14.6 million in the prior year [26] - The performance brand segment remained flat year-over-year despite the divestment of the Royal Purple Industrial Business [25] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The industry saw weakness in renewable diesel margins, with realized margins lower than the normal index margin formula [9] - Biomass-based diesel production remains cut back at roughly 60% utilization, with industry production volumes stabilizing just above 350 million gallons a month [10] - European SAF prices increased approximately 60% over the past six months, indicating a tightening market [19] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is on track for its max SAF expansion in the first half of 2026, with approximately 75% of the expanded volume either contracted or in the final review process [12][14] - The focus remains on driving operational improvements and reducing costs per barrel, with a strategic priority on deleveraging [21][24] - The company aims to leverage its integrated model to optimize crude slate and product deals, capturing market opportunities [24] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the recovery in the renewable diesel market, anticipating improved margins once the RVO is finalized [38] - The company is confident in its ability to navigate feedstock volatility and expects to benefit from a strong operational environment in 2026 [41] - Management highlighted the importance of regulatory clarity and the potential for increased demand in the SAF market [28][19] Other Important Information - The company successfully monetized $25 million of PTCs during the quarter, with expectations for further monetization at improving price levels [22][27] - An error in the reported Q1 and Q2 2025 cash flow statements will result in an approximate $80 million increase to cash flows from operations for the first quarter [20] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the gating items for the max SAF expansion? - Management indicated that there are very few gating items, with some tactical constraint removals planned during the scheduled turnaround [31] Question: Can you discuss the off-take agreements for SAF? - Management stated that they are well above halfway through signing customers for the increased SAF production, with a mix of executed and in-service contracts [32][33] Question: What is the primary feedstock being used for Montana Renewables? - Management explained that they utilize a dynamic approach to feedstock, broadly using one-third vegetable oil, one-third corn oil, and one-third tallow and cooking oils [36] Question: How does the small refinery exemption impact financials? - Management noted that they have reduced their outstanding RIN obligation by over $320 million due to favorable rulings on small refinery exemptions [40] Question: What are the expectations for monetizing PTCs? - Management expects to monetize PTCs closer to 95% over time, with initial monetizations around 90% [46]

Financial Performance - Calumet's Q3'25 Adjusted EBITDA with Tax Attributes reached $92.5 million[6] - $44 million of restricted debt reduction occurred in Q3'25[6,8] - Year-to-date operating costs decreased by $61 million year-over-year[6,8] Segment Performance - Specialty Products and Solutions (SPS) achieved Adjusted EBITDA with Tax Attributes of $80.2 million in Q3'25, compared to $50.7 million in Q3'24[6] - Performance Brands (PB) reported Adjusted EBITDA with Tax Attributes of $13.2 million in Q3'25[6] - Montana/Renewables (MRL at 87%) posted Adjusted EBITDA with Tax Attributes of $17.1 million in Q3'25, versus $14.6 million in Q3'24[6] - Montana Renewables operating costs hit a new low in Q3'25 at $0.40 per gallon[6,8] Montana Renewables & SAF - MaxSAF 150 project is on track for Q2'26[6,8,9] - Approximately 100 million gallons of SAF contracts and term sheet commitments have been secured to date[6,8,15]

Core Insights - Calumet, Inc. reported strong financial results for Q3 2025, with a net income of $313.4 million, compared to a net loss of $100.6 million in Q3 2024, reflecting a significant turnaround in profitability [3][25] - The company achieved an Adjusted EBITDA with Tax Attributes of $92.5 million for Q3 2025, up from $59.8 million in the same quarter last year, indicating improved operational efficiency [3][30] - Year-to-date, Calumet has reduced operating costs by $61 million compared to the previous year, showcasing effective cost management strategies [3][2] Financial Performance - Q3 2025 net income was $313.4 million, or $3.61 per share, compared to a loss of $100.6 million, or $(1.18) per share, in Q3 2024 [3][25] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2025 was $69.6 million, up from $59.8 million in Q3 2024, while Adjusted EBITDA with Tax Attributes reached $92.5 million, compared to $59.8 million in the prior year [3][30] - The company reported a gross profit of $373.7 million for Q3 2025, significantly higher than the $4.9 million reported in Q3 2024 [25] Segment Performance - The Specialty Products and Solutions (SPS) segment achieved an Adjusted EBITDA of $80.2 million in Q3 2025, compared to $50.7 million in Q3 2024, driven by strong specialty product sales and fixed cost reductions [2][3] - The Performance Brands (PB) segment reported Adjusted EBITDA of $13.2 million in Q3 2025, slightly down from $13.6 million in Q3 2024, with strong margins particularly in the TruFuel® brand [3][2] - The Montana/Renewables (MR) segment reported Adjusted EBITDA with Tax Attributes of $17.1 million in Q3 2025, up from $14.6 million in the prior year, benefiting from operating cost reductions and strong fuels and asphalt results [2][3] Strategic Initiatives - Calumet is on track to expand its Montana Renewables facility, aiming to increase sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production significantly by the second quarter of 2026, with approximately 100 million gallons of SAF already contracted or in final review [3][2] - The company is focused on enhancing its SAF marketing program, expecting to complete contracting at strong premiums ahead of the expansion [3][2] Restatement of Financial Results - Calumet announced a restatement of its unaudited interim consolidated financial statements for the periods ended March 31, 2025, and June 30, 2025, due to misclassification in cash flow statements, resulting in an upward adjustment of approximately $80 million to operating cash flows [2][3]

Core Insights - The third-quarter 2025 earnings season for Oil/Energy companies is underway, with many companies exceeding expectations despite falling oil prices [1][2] - Improved natural gas prices have helped offset some weaknesses in crude oil, leading to a more resilient sector performance than anticipated [2][8] Revenue & Earnings Analysis - Year-over-year comparison shows a decline in average monthly WTI crude prices from $81.80, $76.68, and $70.24 per barrel in Q3 2024 to $68.39, $64.86, and $63.96 per barrel in Q3 2025, indicating a weaker oil price environment [4] - In contrast, U.S. Henry Hub average natural gas prices increased from $2.07, $1.99, and $2.28 in Q3 2024 to $3.20, $2.91, and $2.97 in Q3 2025, reflecting positive signals for natural gas [5] - The energy sector is projected to experience a 4.9% decline in earnings compared to Q3 2024, while revenues are expected to increase by 1% [6] Company Performance Highlights - Approximately 37.5% of S&P 500 companies have reported results, showing a 49.6% year-over-year earnings increase with a 5% rise in revenues [7] - Nearly 78% of companies have exceeded both earnings and revenue estimates, indicating a broadly strong earnings season [8] Stock Recommendations - Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ) has an Earnings ESP of +1.55% and a Zacks Rank of 2, scheduled to release earnings on Nov. 6, with a historical earnings surprise of 7.1% on average [12] - Delek US Holdings (DK) has a Zacks Rank of 3 and an Earnings ESP of +98.57%, set to release results on Nov. 7, with an average earnings surprise of 16.1% [13] - Calumet Specialty Products Partners (CLMT) holds a Zacks Rank of 3 and an Earnings ESP of +29.48%, scheduled to release earnings on Nov. 7, but has a historical average earnings surprise of -104.8% [14][15] - Northern Oil and Gas (NOG) has an Earnings ESP of +1.83% and a Zacks Rank of 3, with earnings release on Nov. 6, and an average earnings surprise of 23.8% [16]

Core Insights - Montana Renewables (MRL) has launched a 50/50 blend of renewable and fossil jet fuel, certified under ASTM D7566 and ASTM D1655 specifications, in collaboration with Calumet Montana Refining (CMR) [1][4] - The blended fuel, named MaxSAF, is compatible with existing systems and will be distributed through AEG Fuels' network to select aviation hubs in Montana, Washington, and Oregon [2][7] Company Overview - Montana Renewables is a leading renewable fuel company based in Great Falls, Montana, producing Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF), Renewable Diesel, Renewable Hydrogen, and Renewable Naphtha [5] - MRL is one of only three SAF producers operating at commercial scale in North America, addressing the growing demand for sustainable fuels [5] - The company utilizes low-carbon feedstocks from Pacific Northwest agricultural operations, including tallow and used cooking oil, to produce renewable transportation fuels with lower emissions than conventional fossil fuels [5] Strategic Partnerships - AEG Fuels has expressed pride in collaborating with Montana Renewables on the SAF blend, highlighting the importance of strategic partnerships in advancing sustainable aviation [4][7] - The partnership aims to provide a drop-in fuel solution that aligns with Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) goals, reduces emissions, and enhances brand leadership for customers [7] Environmental Impact - The introduction of SAF is expected to significantly reduce lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions and improve air quality compared to traditional Jet A fuel [7] - The initiative supports a circular economy by utilizing agricultural byproducts in fuel production, contributing to sustainability efforts [7]

Core Points - Calumet, Inc. plans to report its Third Quarter 2025 results on November 7, 2025 [1] - A conference call to discuss the financial and operational results is scheduled for November 7th at 9:00 AM ET [1] Company Overview - Calumet manufactures, formulates, and markets a diversified slate of specialty branded products and renewable fuels [3] - The company is headquartered in Indianapolis, Indiana and operates twelve facilities throughout North America [3]

Core Thesis - Calumet Specialty Products Partners (CLMT) is viewed positively due to its diversified business model and operational improvements, with a current share price of $18.66 as of September 22nd [1][2] Business Segments - CLMT operates three core businesses: Specialty Products & Solutions (SPS), Performance Brands (PB), and Montana/Renewables (MRL), with SPS and PB generating mid-cycle EBITDA of approximately $285 million [2] - The SPS and PB segments are valued at an estimated $2.3 billion EV, translating to about $13 per share, while MRL has an EV of $1.1 billion [2] Financial Performance and Projections - MRL's current EBITDA stands at $65 million, but there are catalysts that could increase it to over $300 million, driven by political support for biofuels and capacity expansion under the MAXSAF program [3] - The upcoming production of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) is expected to yield a margin premium of $1–$2 per gallon over renewable diesel, enhancing MRL's profitability [3] Regulatory Environment - Regulatory support, including favorable Renewable Identification Number (RIN) pricing and reduced RIN obligations for CLMT, could significantly enhance the company's valuation [4] - If favorable scenarios unfold, the total company valuation using an 8x EBITDA multiple could exceed $30 per share, indicating substantial upside potential from the current price of $17 [4] Historical Context and Future Outlook - The stock price of CLMT has appreciated approximately 88% since a previous bullish thesis in April 2025, which highlighted biodiesel margin inflection and MRL's feedstock advantage [5] - Current operational improvements in SPS and PB, along with the impact of SAF and MAXSAF capacity on long-term EBITDA, continue to support a bullish outlook for the company [5]

Group 1 - Calumet Specialty Products (NASDAQ: CLMT) reported better than expected results for June, indicating strong performance [1] - The company guided breakeven costs for MRL at unprecedented values, surpassing best-in-class benchmarks [1]

Core Viewpoint - Calumet, Inc. has successfully received full or partial exemptions for all petitions filed with the EPA from 2019 to 2024, significantly reducing its Renewable Identification Number (RIN) liability from 396 million to 89 million RINs, which is a substantial relief for the company and the renewable fuels industry [2][3]. Company Summary - Calumet, Inc. manufactures and markets a diverse range of specialty branded products and renewable fuels across various consumer and industrial markets, operating twelve facilities in North America [4]. Industry Impact - The EPA's recent ruling is seen as a positive step towards resolving the historical backlog in the renewable fuels industry, providing clarity and supporting the role of small refiners and biofuels in enhancing America's energy independence [3].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported adjusted EBITDA of $76.5 million for Q2 2025, with $8.3 million generated from Montana Renewables, indicating strong performance despite a full month turnaround at the Shreveport facility [5][10][28] - Operating costs were reduced by $42 million in the first half of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, despite a $7 million increase in natural gas and electricity costs [8][24] - Specialty product margins increased to over $66 per barrel, reflecting improved operational efficiency [24][30] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Specialty Products and Solutions segment generated $66.8 million of adjusted EBITDA, with sales volume exceeding 20,000 barrels per day for the third consecutive quarter [24][26] - The Performance Brands segment reported $13.5 million in adjusted EBITDA, driven by strong volume growth, particularly in the TruFuel brand [27] - Montana Renewables segment adjusted EBITDA with tax attributes was $16.3 million, up from $8.7 million in the prior year, showcasing resilience in a challenging market [28][29] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The renewable diesel industry is currently facing low quarterly index margins, but Montana Renewables managed to generate positive adjusted EBITDA due to its competitive advantages [10][14] - The proposed Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO) for 2026 is expected to increase demand for biomass-based diesel, potentially leading to improved margins [19][20][76] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on deleveraging and managing its debt, with a target of reaching $800 million in restricted group debt [22][40] - The MAX SAF 150 project is on track to start in 2026, aiming to produce 120 million to 150 million annual gallons of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) [12][31] - The company is actively pursuing monetization of production tax credits, with expectations of completing these transactions in the near future [66][91] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the long-term outlook for the renewable diesel market, anticipating margin recovery as regulatory clarity improves [73][76] - The company is optimistic about the potential for increased production and improved margins in 2026, contingent on the finalization of the RVO [19][76] Other Important Information - The company has successfully reduced operational costs and improved efficiency, with a focus on water treatment and operational learning [46][48] - The company does not expect tariffs to significantly impact its specialties business due to its U.S.-based manufacturing and supply chain [27] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the updated thoughts on mid-cycle earnings for renewable diesel? - Management indicated that mid-cycle earnings could return to historical levels of $1.50 to $2.00 per gallon index margin, with potential adjusted EBITDA of $140 million to $150 million at $1.50 margins [35][36] Question: Can you discuss the path to further debt pay down and potential future divestitures? - Management highlighted that they have made significant progress on debt reduction and are considering strategic asset sales as part of their deleveraging strategy [39][40] Question: What types of improvements have driven cost reductions in operations? - Management noted that significant improvements in water treatment and operational efficiency have contributed to reduced costs [46][48] Question: How does the company view the attractiveness of different regions for SAF? - Management emphasized the flexibility to serve various markets, including the Midwest and California, and highlighted the potential for partnerships in Canada [50][54] Question: What is the status of PTC monetization? - Management confirmed that they are in the process of finalizing term sheets for PTCs and expect to complete these transactions soon [66][91]