Group 1 - Calumet, Inc. plans to attend the Bank of America Leveraged Finance Conference on December 2, 2025, and will hold one-on-one investor meetings throughout the day [1] - The company manufactures, formulates, and markets a diversified range of specialty branded products and renewable fuels for various consumer-facing and industrial markets [2] - Calumet is headquartered in Indianapolis, Indiana, and operates twelve facilities across North America [2] Group 2 - Calumet also announced its participation in the T.D. Cowen 2nd Annual Energy Conference in New York [3] - The company is set to attend the Bank of America Global Energy Conference in Houston [4]

Group 1 - Calumet, Inc. plans to attend the T.D. Cowen 2nd Annual Energy Conference in New York on November 18, 2025, and will hold one-on-one investor meetings throughout the day [1] - Calumet, Inc. manufactures, formulates, and markets a diversified range of specialty branded products and renewable fuels for various consumer-facing and industrial markets [2] - The company is headquartered in Indianapolis, Indiana, and operates twelve facilities across North America [2] Group 2 - Calumet, Inc. also announced plans to attend the Bank of America Global Energy Conference in Houston [3] - The company reported its results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2025 [4]

Core Insights - The focus is on producing objective, data-driven research primarily about small- to mid-cap companies, which are often overlooked by many investors [1] Group 1 - The analysis occasionally includes large-cap companies to provide a broader perspective on the equity markets [1]

Group 1 - Calumet, Inc. plans to attend the Bank of America Global Energy Conference in Houston on November 11, 2025, and will hold one-on-one investor meetings at the conference [1] - Calumet manufactures, formulates, and markets a diversified range of specialty branded products and renewable fuels for various consumer-facing and industrial markets [2] - The company is headquartered in Indianapolis, Indiana, and operates twelve facilities across North America [2] Group 2 - Montana Renewables, in collaboration with Calumet Montana Refining, has launched MaxSAF™ Blended, which advances sustainable aviation fuel by commissioning onsite blending and shipping facilities [4]

Core Viewpoint - Calumet's Q3 2025 earnings report caused significant stock volatility, with a brief rise of 13% followed by a decline of 6%, ultimately settling down 2.5% [1][3] Financial Performance - Calumet reported a 2% decline in sales, totaling $1.1 billion, but achieved a profit of $3.61 per share in Q3 2025, a turnaround from a loss of $1.18 per share in Q3 2024, attributed to cost reduction initiatives expected to save $80 million annually [3][4] - The company announced a restatement of Q2 financials due to misclassification in cash flow statements, which will not affect reported revenue or profits but will increase operating cash flow by approximately $80 million, enhancing free cash flow [4] Investment Considerations - The positive Q3 earnings could potentially eliminate Calumet's current $75 million free cash flow deficit, making the company free cash flow positive [5] - Despite the earnings surprise, Calumet remains unprofitable over the last 12 months, leading to caution among investors regarding stock purchases until profitability is established [6][8]

Core Viewpoint - Calumet, Inc. is positioned positively in the market with a diversified product range and strategic initiatives aimed at enhancing financial performance and growth potential [1][5]. Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, Calumet reported a net loss of $147.9 million but achieved an adjusted EBITDA of $76.5 million, indicating operational resilience [4]. - The company has successfully implemented cost reduction measures, achieving $42 million in operating cost savings year-over-year, which may enhance future profitability [4]. Market Sentiment - The stock consensus target price for Calumet has shown fluctuations, with the average price target increasing from $16.63 three months ago to $20 last month, reflecting improved analyst sentiment [2]. - A year ago, the target price was slightly higher at $20.42, suggesting some stability in the long-term outlook for the company [2]. Strategic Initiatives - Calumet's Montana Renewables subsidiary has achieved industry-leading breakeven costs and positive EBITDA, showcasing strong performance in the renewable energy sector [3]. - The company is pursuing strategic projects like the MaxSAF-150 and has secured a $782 million DOE loan, which are expected to drive significant cash flow and margin expansion by 2026 [5]. - Recent developments have contributed to a stock price increase of 12.5%, indicating positive market reception of the company's initiatives [5].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported $92.5 million of adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2025, marking the strongest quarter in several years [21] - Operating costs were reduced by $24 million compared to the same quarter last year, with a year-to-date reduction of $60 million [5][21] - The company reduced its restricted group debt by over $40 million during the quarter [21] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The specialty products and solutions segment generated $80.2 million of adjusted EBITDA, with production volume gains of 8% compared to the prior year [23] - The Montana Renewables segment generated adjusted EBITDA with tax attributes of $17.1 million, an increase from $14.6 million in the prior year [26] - The performance brand segment remained flat year-over-year despite the divestment of the Royal Purple Industrial Business [25] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The industry saw weakness in renewable diesel margins, with realized margins lower than the normal index margin formula [9] - Biomass-based diesel production remains cut back at roughly 60% utilization, with industry production volumes stabilizing just above 350 million gallons a month [10] - European SAF prices increased approximately 60% over the past six months, indicating a tightening market [19] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is on track for its max SAF expansion in the first half of 2026, with approximately 75% of the expanded volume either contracted or in the final review process [12][14] - The focus remains on driving operational improvements and reducing costs per barrel, with a strategic priority on deleveraging [21][24] - The company aims to leverage its integrated model to optimize crude slate and product deals, capturing market opportunities [24] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the recovery in the renewable diesel market, anticipating improved margins once the RVO is finalized [38] - The company is confident in its ability to navigate feedstock volatility and expects to benefit from a strong operational environment in 2026 [41] - Management highlighted the importance of regulatory clarity and the potential for increased demand in the SAF market [28][19] Other Important Information - The company successfully monetized $25 million of PTCs during the quarter, with expectations for further monetization at improving price levels [22][27] - An error in the reported Q1 and Q2 2025 cash flow statements will result in an approximate $80 million increase to cash flows from operations for the first quarter [20] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the gating items for the max SAF expansion? - Management indicated that there are very few gating items, with some tactical constraint removals planned during the scheduled turnaround [31] Question: Can you discuss the off-take agreements for SAF? - Management stated that they are well above halfway through signing customers for the increased SAF production, with a mix of executed and in-service contracts [32][33] Question: What is the primary feedstock being used for Montana Renewables? - Management explained that they utilize a dynamic approach to feedstock, broadly using one-third vegetable oil, one-third corn oil, and one-third tallow and cooking oils [36] Question: How does the small refinery exemption impact financials? - Management noted that they have reduced their outstanding RIN obligation by over $320 million due to favorable rulings on small refinery exemptions [40] Question: What are the expectations for monetizing PTCs? - Management expects to monetize PTCs closer to 95% over time, with initial monetizations around 90% [46]

Financial Performance - Calumet's Q3'25 Adjusted EBITDA with Tax Attributes reached $92.5 million[6] - $44 million of restricted debt reduction occurred in Q3'25[6,8] - Year-to-date operating costs decreased by $61 million year-over-year[6,8] Segment Performance - Specialty Products and Solutions (SPS) achieved Adjusted EBITDA with Tax Attributes of $80.2 million in Q3'25, compared to $50.7 million in Q3'24[6] - Performance Brands (PB) reported Adjusted EBITDA with Tax Attributes of $13.2 million in Q3'25[6] - Montana/Renewables (MRL at 87%) posted Adjusted EBITDA with Tax Attributes of $17.1 million in Q3'25, versus $14.6 million in Q3'24[6] - Montana Renewables operating costs hit a new low in Q3'25 at $0.40 per gallon[6,8] Montana Renewables & SAF - MaxSAF 150 project is on track for Q2'26[6,8,9] - Approximately 100 million gallons of SAF contracts and term sheet commitments have been secured to date[6,8,15]

Core Insights - Calumet, Inc. reported strong financial results for Q3 2025, with a net income of $313.4 million, compared to a net loss of $100.6 million in Q3 2024, reflecting a significant turnaround in profitability [3][25] - The company achieved an Adjusted EBITDA with Tax Attributes of $92.5 million for Q3 2025, up from $59.8 million in the same quarter last year, indicating improved operational efficiency [3][30] - Year-to-date, Calumet has reduced operating costs by $61 million compared to the previous year, showcasing effective cost management strategies [3][2] Financial Performance - Q3 2025 net income was $313.4 million, or $3.61 per share, compared to a loss of $100.6 million, or $(1.18) per share, in Q3 2024 [3][25] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2025 was $69.6 million, up from $59.8 million in Q3 2024, while Adjusted EBITDA with Tax Attributes reached $92.5 million, compared to $59.8 million in the prior year [3][30] - The company reported a gross profit of $373.7 million for Q3 2025, significantly higher than the $4.9 million reported in Q3 2024 [25] Segment Performance - The Specialty Products and Solutions (SPS) segment achieved an Adjusted EBITDA of $80.2 million in Q3 2025, compared to $50.7 million in Q3 2024, driven by strong specialty product sales and fixed cost reductions [2][3] - The Performance Brands (PB) segment reported Adjusted EBITDA of $13.2 million in Q3 2025, slightly down from $13.6 million in Q3 2024, with strong margins particularly in the TruFuel® brand [3][2] - The Montana/Renewables (MR) segment reported Adjusted EBITDA with Tax Attributes of $17.1 million in Q3 2025, up from $14.6 million in the prior year, benefiting from operating cost reductions and strong fuels and asphalt results [2][3] Strategic Initiatives - Calumet is on track to expand its Montana Renewables facility, aiming to increase sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production significantly by the second quarter of 2026, with approximately 100 million gallons of SAF already contracted or in final review [3][2] - The company is focused on enhancing its SAF marketing program, expecting to complete contracting at strong premiums ahead of the expansion [3][2] Restatement of Financial Results - Calumet announced a restatement of its unaudited interim consolidated financial statements for the periods ended March 31, 2025, and June 30, 2025, due to misclassification in cash flow statements, resulting in an upward adjustment of approximately $80 million to operating cash flows [2][3]

Core Insights - The third-quarter 2025 earnings season for Oil/Energy companies is underway, with many companies exceeding expectations despite falling oil prices [1][2] - Improved natural gas prices have helped offset some weaknesses in crude oil, leading to a more resilient sector performance than anticipated [2][8] Revenue & Earnings Analysis - Year-over-year comparison shows a decline in average monthly WTI crude prices from $81.80, $76.68, and $70.24 per barrel in Q3 2024 to $68.39, $64.86, and $63.96 per barrel in Q3 2025, indicating a weaker oil price environment [4] - In contrast, U.S. Henry Hub average natural gas prices increased from $2.07, $1.99, and $2.28 in Q3 2024 to $3.20, $2.91, and $2.97 in Q3 2025, reflecting positive signals for natural gas [5] - The energy sector is projected to experience a 4.9% decline in earnings compared to Q3 2024, while revenues are expected to increase by 1% [6] Company Performance Highlights - Approximately 37.5% of S&P 500 companies have reported results, showing a 49.6% year-over-year earnings increase with a 5% rise in revenues [7] - Nearly 78% of companies have exceeded both earnings and revenue estimates, indicating a broadly strong earnings season [8] Stock Recommendations - Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ) has an Earnings ESP of +1.55% and a Zacks Rank of 2, scheduled to release earnings on Nov. 6, with a historical earnings surprise of 7.1% on average [12] - Delek US Holdings (DK) has a Zacks Rank of 3 and an Earnings ESP of +98.57%, set to release results on Nov. 7, with an average earnings surprise of 16.1% [13] - Calumet Specialty Products Partners (CLMT) holds a Zacks Rank of 3 and an Earnings ESP of +29.48%, scheduled to release earnings on Nov. 7, but has a historical average earnings surprise of -104.8% [14][15] - Northern Oil and Gas (NOG) has an Earnings ESP of +1.83% and a Zacks Rank of 3, with earnings release on Nov. 6, and an average earnings surprise of 23.8% [16]